Autopsy AFL 2024 Preliminary Final - Swans v Port Fri Sept 20th 7:40pm EST (SCG)

[SBD Gonzalez]

Last 8 meetings:

Port 8
Syd 0

Head to Head Between Sydney and Port Adelaide - FinalSiren.com

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10 before that:

Sydney 8
Port 2

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Our list is hardly what you’d call old.

It's just older than Port's, their last game averaging around 26 years and 3100 games experience, compared to Port around 24-25 and 2200 games experience. Swans will be going in with five 30+ year olds compared to Port's 2.

 

[MF]

I think Port will get the jump on Sydney very early, since The Swans have had such a long break, that won't help their much older list get back into it. I think Port will have to deal with The Swans coming back at them, later in the match, if they do, but Port are exceptional at winning very close matches, but I think Port could blow out the margin significantly again like they did last month against Sydney.

Isn't ports list older than ours?

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Isn't ports list older than ours?

No, games experience is much less for Port ranked 9th and age wise Port is 11th, Sydney are 9th for their 2024 average age and 4th for games experience. Although, Sydney in their last game were around 26 + years old average, Port would be a year younger in average age, and Sydney have more 30 + year old players.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

There is a possibility that Rozee, Wines and Butters forget this is a final and play to their usual standard, but if they don't, this will be ugly back the other way.

Cue the commentators getting giddy about a 170 point turnaround as Swans win by 60 plus.

 

[TheEscapeClub]

Extremely relevant stat there. Barry Hall kicked 6 goals that game so Port are going to have to find a way to counter him if they hope to win.

They'll put Dixon on him. Hall probably moving better than big Charlie these days.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Port by 40. Port smashed Sydney by 112 for a reason, and I find it hard to see a turn around that quickly. I can't see Sydney's early slow starts suddenly changing either, and Port are dangerous when they get a run on.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

It's just older than Port's, their last game averaging around 26 years and 3100 games experience, compared to Port around 24-25 and 2200 games experience. Swans will be going in with five 30+ year olds compared to Port's 2.

I personally think age-wise we’re in more of a sweet spot than Port. A handful of senior hands who are still delivering (Rampe, Parker, Lloyd) and then much of the rest of the team is young but experienced, in that 50-200 game zone, and possibly more to the point, finals-experienced. Something like 17 of our current best 23 played in the 2022 GF, and I’m sure it has hardened them.

Could all come crashing down on Friday night but I think this squad has a lot going for it.

 

[Mr Meow]

Jase Burgoyne really filled the void of Dan Houston, he was their best player on Friday and he played half back, I think Port's younger list and having more recent games played will make it hard for Sydney's older list and only 1 game played the past month to overcome.

Only before 2016, but because of the bye before the finals, there's been so many away teams winning preliminary finals.

They're mostly teams I consider flakey though. 2016 Cats and Giants, 2020 Lions and 2020/2021 Power. 2019 Pies are the only "non flakey" team in that period to be upset in a home prelim in that time.

Now I do consider Geelong 2024 a bit flakey (although plenty of premiership stars) so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Brisbane win. Sydney I don't have in that category. Plus they have the big home ground advantage of the round.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

I personally think age-wise we’re in more of a sweet spot than Port. A handful of senior hands who are still delivering (Rampe, Parker, Lloyd) and then much of the rest of the team is young but experienced, in that 50-200 game zone, and possibly more to the point, finals-experienced. Something like 17 of our current best 23 played in the 2022 GF, and I’m sure it has hardened them.

Could all come crashing down on Friday night but I think this squad has a lot going for it.

I'm more concerned over the longer break they've had, listening to interviews from players they struggle as they age to get back up after resting for too long. And if you look after 2016, a lot of away teams have won their preliminary final, I think because of that excessive rest to the home preliminary finalist.

2016 both away preliminary finalists won, 2018-2019 one away preliminary finalist won, 2020 both away preliminary finalists won, 2021 one away preliminary finalist won.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Sydney I don't have in that category.

Sydney have been very flakey after round 16, especially losing to Port by 112 points only last month. The only top 8 opponent they've defeated since round 16 is GWS.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

The small size is a myth and Port have played at the SCG once in six years

Even so we’ve still beaten you the last 3 times at the SCG during this current streak. Doubt many teams have won the past 3 games at the SCG against the swans.

The SCG is also considerably shorter than other grounds. It’s 12m shorter from end to end than the AO. Considering our forward structure is basically bang it long and lock it in, that seems to suit us.

 

[Mr Meow]

Sydney have been very flakey after round 16, especially losing to Port by 112 points only last month. The only top 8 opponent they've defeated since round 16 is GWS.

It brings a splash of jeopardy into it but overall (I take the whole season into account) they still have a good record against the top 8 and made a grand final two years ago.

 

[The King!]

Even so we’ve still beaten you the last 3 times at the SCG during this current streak. Doubt many teams have won the past 3 games at the SCG against the swans.

The SCG is also considerably shorter than other grounds. It’s 12m shorter from end to end than the AO. Considering our forward structure is basically bang it long and lock it in, that seems to suit us.

lol 2 of those SCG wins were 6 and 7 years ago, who cares .


But we shall see I guess , you should load up on the generous odds with your confidence .


Should be a good game and if it's close Port can call on that win in 2017 to inspire them.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Ahh, another preview thread, another bunch of hopefuls writing off Port.

Need I remind everyone this is another cut throat match for Kens career at Port.

They lifted for 13 straight to secure his contract extension last year.

They lifted to win 8 from 9 and save him from an imminant sacking when the fans booed him after the Brisbane loss and people said we wouldnt make the 8.

They lifted in a cut throat elimination semi final against the plucky Hawks, that had already booked their flights to Sydney, to again extend Kens career at Port.

And they will go to Sydney and want to continue that trend against a side they recently pumped by over 100pts that will require more than just familiar surroundings to reverse that result.

Sydney may very well win, but they better bring their 'A' game.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

lol 2 of those SCG wins were 6 and 7 years ago, who cares .


But we shall see I guess , you should load up on the generous odds with your confidence .


Should be a good game and if it's close Port can call on that win in 2017 to inspire them.

Not sure why you’re being so defensive when simply stated we play the ground well and that may be due to its size being a good match for our game style. Chill.

 

[The King!]

Ahh, another preview thread, another bunch of hopefuls writing off Port.

Need I remind everyone this is another cut throat match for Kens career at Port.

They lifted for 13 straight to secure his contract extension last year.

They lifted to win 8 from 9 and save him from an imminant sacking when the fans booed him after the Brisbane loss and people said we wouldnt make the 8.

They lifted in a cut throat elimination semi final against the plucky Hawks, that had already booked their flights to Sydney, to again extend Kens career at Port.

And they will go to Sydney and want to continue that trend against a side they recently pumped by over 100pts that will require more than just familiar surroundings to reverse that result.

Sydney may very well win, but they better bring their 'A' game.

Where's Port being written off? it's mostly about their dominance over Sydney so far.

 

[The King!]

Not sure why you’re being so defensive when simply stated we play the ground well and that may be due to its size being a good match for our game style. Chill.

Not defensive at all, Port have a great record against Sydney but it's mostly due to the fact they rarely come to Sydney more than the SCG thing that's all.

Randomly two sides that never meet twice a year .

Might change now. Odd too that we used to have an awesome record against Port.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Where's Port being written off? it's mostly about their dominance over Sydney so far.

I was directing that at our salty Vic friends who have us down by 7 goals, but its only early, they'll chime in, cant help themselves.

 

[FreeAgent1]

Marshall is out, do dixon will play ruining any attempt at forward half pressure.

JHF will be a huge out.

 

[JB1989]

I wish there was a 'flip a coin' option in the poll. I have no idea just like most games this season! Every time I think I know; I'm wrong.

I'm hoping for an injury free/suspension free game for whoever is the better team on the day.

 

[ibd77]

I wish there was a 'flip a coin' option in the poll. I have no idea just like most games this season! Every time I think I know; I'm wrong.

I'm hoping for an injury free/suspension free game for whoever is the better team on the day.

Well the good thing is that the AFL doesn't really have a vested interest in either side. So we might get a fairly umpired match for once.

 

[RUNVS]

Marshall is out, do dixon will play ruining any attempt at forward half pressure.

JHF will be a huge out.

It is a relief as our tall defensive stocks are definitely a weakness.

 

[ClintEastwood]

JHF will be a huge out.

Huh? Are you privy to some news I haven't seen yet?

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Well the good thing is that the AFL doesn't really have a vested interest in either side. So we might get a fairly umpired match for once.

Cue thousands of outraged Victorian fans claiming the AFL hands Sydney their flags on a platter.