Game Day AFL Preliminary Final - Matchday Discussion GWS@Collingwood(MCG – 4:35PM)

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Looking at our team in comparison to the Giants outs has helped to manage my expectations. Despite the media hysteria we are not significantly better placed in terms of personnel.

The absent De Goey cancels out Greene.

Cox missing is a major structural issue. Langdon and Greenwood out is a blow to defensive cohesiveness.

Then we have the following with major questions or risk attached:
Reid (fragile and not played in months)
Aish (not played in months and never a clear best 22 player)
Moore (hamstring still a concern)
Elliott (hamstring still a concern)

Noble (only in the league since mid year. Has never had an AFL pre season)
Wills (VFL level player with no offensive game)

With Wills and Noble we may just have the two "worst" players in this finals series. Both are a major risk. Wills with no offensive game and a major fumble, silly free against risk. Noble without an AFL pre season and with a risk taking mentality. He made many mistakes early against Geelong, it was only luck that they did not cost us a few goals.

These risks and other outs puts us close to equivalency with the Giants for personnel going into this game. We are only better off if our fingers crossed selections pay off. Their major out is Whitfield, the rest are cogs that don't cause significant structural issues.

That said we've been building form and fitness for over a month now, as have the Giants. Both teams are in a good position to strongly attack this Prelim. The recency of the Whitfield out and the fact we are playing at home gives us the edge, but I have no doubt it will be a tough contest. Pies to bring it home by 16 points.
 

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Looking at our team in comparison to the Giants outs has helped to manage my expectations. Despite the media hysteria we are not significantly better placed in terms of personnel.

The absent De Goey cancels out Greene.

Cox missing is a major structural issue. Langdon and Greenwood out is a blow to defensive cohesiveness.

Then we have the following with major questions or risk attached:
Reid (fragile and not played in months)
Aish (not played in months and never a clear best 22 player)
Moore (hamstring still a concern)
Elliott (hamstring still a concern)

Noble (only in the league since mid year. Has never had an AFL pre season)
Wills (VFL level player with no offensive game)

With Wills and Noble we may just have the two "worst" players in this finals series. Both are a major risk. Wills with no offensive game and a major fumble, silly free against risk. Noble without an AFL pre season and with a risk taking mentality. He made many mistakes early against Geelong, it was only luck that they did not cost us a few goals.

These risks and other outs puts us close to equivalency with the Giants for personnel going into this game. We are only better off if our fingers crossed selections pay off. Their major out is Whitfield, the rest are cogs that don't cause significant structural issues.

That said we've been building form and fitness for over a month now, as have the Giants. Both teams are in a good position to strongly attack this Prelim. The recency of the Whitfield out and the fact we are playing at home gives us the edge, but I have no doubt it will be a tough contest. Pies to bring it home by 16 points.

Nah. Their outs are big. Coniglio, Ward, Whitfield and Greene is a fair slice of their grunt and silk. It'd be the equivalent of us being without Adams and Sidebottom as well as our currently missing Beams and Degoey.
 
Nah. Their outs are big. Coniglio, Ward, Whitfield and Greene is a fair slice of their grunt and silk. It'd be the equivalent of us being without Adams and Sidebottom as well as our currently missing Beams and Degoey.
Ward has been out all year though. Like with Richmond and Rance, you can work to adjust for such long term outs.

Coniglio and Whitfield are big outs (Greene = JDG). Combined with our outs (Cox, Greenwood, Langdon, Beams) and risks I listed though there is not much in it (notice I haven't included Dunn or Wells here. Like Ward they've not been available all year).
 
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