We lost to them last year because we allowed their 3 talls to kick 9 of their 13 goals. It's pretty simple really shut Petrie, Tarrant and Hansen down and they need to rely on their midfield and Thomas to do the damage.
Their midfield has improved, but with ours at full strength (minus only Thomas) they won't be able to attack through their as often as they'd like due to the massive risk of being opened up the other way. I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but Toovey didn't play against the Roos last time (which was a massive blow for us) so I expect him to go to Thomas and restrict him to 1-2 goals max. With Thomas shutdown, their three talls somewhat nullified and their midfield needing a balance of attack and defence, where do they get their score from?
With all that in mind even by going with the extra tall down back we will be sacrificing just one of Clarke and Johnson which would still leave us with Seedsman, O'Brien, Russell, Shaw and one of Johnson and Clarke as runners out of defense and 5 options is more than enough.
IMO we'll go with 3 talls and its definitely the right move!
Great point. The 3 talls (along with Cloke being pulverised by Thompson) were the difference last year so it makes sense to focus on them a bit more. It's horses for courses when selecting a side and with our improved depth we can change our structure more regularly this season to suit our needs against our opposition.