AFL Premiership Round 13
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Saturday 21 June 2008
The Gabba 7:10:00pm (Local Time) Brisbane Forecast
TV (All Live)
Qld: Channel 10, Fox Sports 1.
Vic: Fox Sports 1.
SA: Channel 10, Fox Sports 1.
WA: Fox Sports 1.
TAS: Fox Sports 1.
NT: Fox Sports 1.
NSW/ACT: Fox Sports 1.
RADIO
Vic: SEN.
Qld: ABC, MMM, BIMA.
SA: Fiveaa, MMM.
WA: BIMA.
NSW/ACT: None
Tas: None
NT: BIMA
Ladder:
Last 5 Rounds:
Win-Loss Sequences:
Recent history:
________________________________________________________
Saturday 21 June 2008
The Gabba 7:10:00pm (Local Time) Brisbane Forecast
TV (All Live)
Qld: Channel 10, Fox Sports 1.
Vic: Fox Sports 1.
SA: Channel 10, Fox Sports 1.
WA: Fox Sports 1.
TAS: Fox Sports 1.
NT: Fox Sports 1.
NSW/ACT: Fox Sports 1.
RADIO
Vic: SEN.
Qld: ABC, MMM, BIMA.
SA: Fiveaa, MMM.
WA: BIMA.
NSW/ACT: None
Tas: None
NT: BIMA
Ladder:
Last 5 Rounds:
Win-Loss Sequences:
Recent history:
The Brisbane Perspective:
Originally Posted by beatnik
Preamble…
The last game I previewed was the Sydney Swans game and I have to say I have a very similar feeling looking at this one.
Like Sydney, Adelaide are one of the best defensive units getting around and, like Sydney, they’ve adapted their game plan and play a quicker, more attacking style of play circa 2008.
Lethal has attributed that change in the competition to the success of Geelong last year – he reasons that coaches and teams model themselves on the premiers and more-so when they are runaway winners.
It’s funny that only a few years short ago, the doomsayers were moaning Sydney’s premiership success would lead to locust plagues, crop failures and universally ‘boring’ football!
The game of follow-the-leader continues but now the code is on an attacking upswing – Adelaide don’t have a star-studded forward line but they have one of the most.
Form lines…
Tipped pre-season to be on a downward spiral, Coach Craig has rejuvenated and restructured his team seamlessly and yet the wags seem intent on making a truism of their pre-season predictions for the Crows.
Despite being in and around the top 4 all season long, the footy fourth estate has continued to question whether Adelaide are really worthy of that spot on the top shelf as most of their wins were against bottom 8 sides.
Given their more attacking style and constant presence in the top tier through the first half of 2008, Adelaide would be justified in feeling a little slighted at the continued questioning of their credentials this season.
Adelaide had a great showing against the rampant Hawks and will be kicking themselves for letting a big scalp slip away – the scribes might have underestimated the Crows this season but I don’t think there’ll be anyone in the Brisbane camp doing so this week.
The Lions form line is intriguing – win-loss-win-loss etc until the break and then we nailed 4 straight. We were looking like the real deal until we ran headfirst into a finals-bound semi driven by a goateed and peroxide-whitened hair gleefully swerving to ensure no Lion escaped.
Yep. The game against the Doggies was a cold, hard dose of reality but it will affect us in one of two ways: we’ll either rebound from the thrashing and come out and play with with desperation and desire; or we’ll withdraw into ourselves a little with dented confidence and chinked armour.
Last year we seemed to fall in a bit of a hole for a week or two after a big loss - we tended to put a few shabby games together on the trot when the wind was taken out of the sails.
This weekend’s match is a test of team character for the still-young Lions and will be a gauge of how much we’ve grown since this time last year.
I’ve mixed up the format a little and thought I’d look at the game through a footy SWOT analysis…
Strengths
Our backline…
I thought the boys at the back were reasonable last week. The Doggies went inside 50 68 times to our 38 so I think it’s fair to say the back 6 were under the pump but they didn’t crumble until very late in the game.
The difference that McGrath, Roe and Drummond make can’t be understated – although they looked a little worse for their week off, the familiar run and rebound was there in spite of the relentless pressure.
I thought we were really wonky at the back against Fremantle and, despite the eventual margin, we were better against the star-studded Dogs forward line on the weekend - I think our backline will be better again this week and I am confident they will make it hard for the Crows up forward.
Twin Towers
Throughout the off-season I steadfastly refused to contemplate the ‘Bradshaw at centre-half-back’ option because I thought it was a luxury we couldn’t afford.
Having two goal-kicking forwards as good as those two in the one 50m arc is rare - individually they are great but when they play together, they become superheroes.
I don’t like to admit it but, with either of those two out, we lose more than just the player – we almost completely lose our structure.
Brennan is no longer a key forward – he’s moved on and does not play with the same hunger for a goal as he did in the second half of last year when thrown forward – and Clark is still a while away from being a primary target in big games.
Make no mistake – we need Browny and Braddy to each get a few this week and one of them to really get amongst it.
I think whomever gets Rutten needs to lead out past 50 and take Bock back to the square – not only will it get The Truck away from the goalsquare, it will limit the counter-attacking punch Bock provides.
Even though in such a scenario Bock and Rutten would switch constantly to keep their alignment, the concentration needed to do it might make it hard for them to zone off and be a third man up, leaving the Corries and the Hoopers a chance for a few marks inside 50.
Weaknesses
Sharing the load…
We rely too heavily on our star midfielders – against Hawthorn, Adelaide had 3 players with 30+ touches; 5 with more than 25 and 11 blokes who had it more than 20 times! Fair enough, they weren’t all mids but those numbers are scary…I mean, who do you concentrate on?
I’d say we shouldn’t try to tag too many – make some head-to-head match-ups in the middle and go for it.
If anyone needs tagging, it is by putting Selwood forward to smother Johncock or McLeod or even letting Copeland follow Bock up the ground and play the alternative leading target role like last year.
Ok, maybe that’s a bit left-field but the middle tier does needs to lift its output from last week and there will be no hiding against the Crows – if we don’t get good even spread from all our runners, we’re in for a long night.
Opportunities
Rucken oath!
It’s hard to say whether this was an opportunity or a threat – I guess it’s a bit of both.
Put simply our best five mids are better than their best five mids but they make that up when you look at the deeper rotations….say 8-10 deep.
Adelaide just seem to share the load so well in the midfield – their roles are well defined and they each execute their job with very few passengers.
Therefore, we desperately need Charman and Leuey to pretty much smash Griffen and Maric (possibly Moran?) all over the park and get clean well-directed taps to the advantage of our engine room and let that advantage percolate to the top.
With ruck dominance (and the possible return of Rischa) our midfield will bounce bacl from the horrors inflicted upon us at the G last week and could test Adelaide’s legendary discipline to it’s absolute limits.
Without ruck dominance, it will be like mud wrestling with a python i.e. you can hold your own for a while…
…then you tire and die!
Threats
Adelaide’s defence make you pay …
Adelaide’s defensive unit is one of the best going around – Rutten and Bock are both AA-class defenders and Johncock and McLeod are ageless and brilliant. They are a tight, well-organised unit and require pinpoint precision to have a chance of beating them over four quarters.
Our forwards will need to work overtime to chase and tackle or Adelaide will hurt us on the rebound all day long.
Our midfield will have its hands full with Adelaide’s seemingly endless fleet of similarly hard-working, disciplined types and will tire early if they are constantly forced to scramble and chase heels going the other way from sloppy delivery or unforced turnovers by the Lions.
In summary, it is crucial that:
a) our mids kick with some precision to our forwards
b) our forwards slow Adelaide’s run out of defence
Inclusions – the one that matters…
An article on the AFL website noted:
CROWS coach Neil Craig will have some welcome headaches at the selection table this week with five players expected to put their hands up to play against the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Saturday night.
Brett Burton, who has served his two-match ban, heads the list of inclusions, which also includes returning injured trio Brad Symes, Kris Massie and Brad Moran.
…Adding more pressure to the players currently in Adelaide’s 22 is the impressive SANFL form of Nick Gill and Trent Hentschel.
So Adelaide are near full-strength and might make 3-5 changes to a side which led Hawthorn for 90% of the game.
I’m not sure whether Moran, Massie or Symes will come in to the side and really the one inclusion that matters is the Birdman.
For a dour defence-oriented tactician, Coach Craig has shown a tendency for rebuilding veteran midfielders into permanent forward. Roo and Goodwin are good success stories but Burton has been sensational.
As a midfielder, Burton was great but since moving near the sticks, we’ve seen the Birdman truly spread his wings and fly - he has that ability to turn half chances into six points and that’s what makes him a one-man ‘threat’ in my books.
MacDonald? Patfull? Roe? All might get a go on him by game’s end.
Summary…
I see this as a massive danger game but I’m clinging to the belief that the Doggies were very, very good last week and are at the peak of the powers whereas the Hawks were undermanned and not as sharp.
If we weren’t at home, I’d say we would fall short after our confidence copped a whack last week - at home, we need a good first quarter to get the belief up and the crowd energized.
If Bradshaw plays: Brisbane by 1 point.
If Bradshaw doesn’t play: Adelaide by 17 points
The Opposition Perspective:
Originally Posted by Vader
Brisbane vs Adelaide
Gabbattoir, Saturday 7.10pm
Recent History
2007 R21 Adelaide 12.14(86) def Brisbane 8.12(60) Football Park
2007 R7 Adelaide 14.16(100) def Brisbane 9.15(69) Gabbattoir
2006 R11 Adelaide 10.15(75) def Brisbane 8.12(60) Gabbattoir
2005 R8 Adelaide 8.15(63) lost to Brisbane 11.6(72) Football Park
2004 R17 Adelaide 6.12(48) lost to Brisbane 29.15(189) Gabbattoir
The overall record favours the Brisbane Lions, who have won 11 of the 18 encounters since the merger with Fitzroy. However, the last 3 games have all gone Adelaide's way - 2 of which were at the Gabbattoir.
Recent Form - Adelaide
R8 Adelaide 22.18 (150) dftd Melbourne 11.8 (74) Football Park
R9 West Coast 14.13 (97) dftd Adelaide 5.17 (47) Subiaco
R10 Adelaide 9.20 (74) dftd Essendon 10.9 (69) Football Park
R11 Richmond 14.12 (96) lost to Adelaide 22.14 (146) MCG
R12 Adelaide 10.12 (72) lost to Hawthorn 11.10 (76) Football Park
Adelaide's recent form is a bit of a mixed bag. They enjoyed the bye in R8, before copping a major reality check in R9. Their form against Essendon was indifferent, though they did well in the second half against the Tigers. The loss to Hawthorn hurt badly, as the Crows led for 90% of the game before losing in a nailbiter.
Recent Form - Brisbane
R8 Carlton 12.20 (92) lost to Brisbane Lions 18.17 (125) Telstra Dome
R9 Brisbane Lions 21.15 (141) dftd St Kilda 14.11 (95) Gabba
R10 Brisbane Lions 18.21 (129) dftd North Melbourne 15.8 (98) Gabba
R11 Brisbane Lions 14.12 (96) dftd Fremantle 10.14 (74) Gabba
R12 Western Bulldogs 19.17 (131) dftd Brisbane Lions 10.8 (68) MCG
The Lions had a good month from R8-11, racking up comfortable wins against the weaker teams. That's more than can be said for the Crows during the same period. However, it all came crashing down around their ears in R12, when they were thrashed by a very much in-form Footscray outfit. Only good work from their underrated defence prevented this game from blowing out worse than it did.
Likely Team
B: Johncock Rutten Stevens
HB: Doughty Bock McLeod
C: van Berlo Reilly Mackay
HF: Porplyzia Burton Goodwin
F: Douglas Tippett Edwards
R: Maric Vince Thompson
I: Griffin Knights Shirley Jericho
IN: Brent Reilly, Brett Burton
OUT: Nathan Bassett (neck), Andy Otten (omit)
Nick Gill or Trent Hentschel would also be possible additions to the team, both returning after lengthy injury breaks. David Mackay would be the likely omission if this were to happen.
Missing Players
Adelaide are almost back to full strength at present, with Nathan Bassett being the only first 22 player likely to miss the game through injury.
The Key Match-Ups
The big question is whether Bradshaw will be fit to play? Brisbane's two towers - Brown and Bradshaw have been in awesome form recently. They sit 3rd and 5th on the leading goalscorers list for the year. Intially it was Bradshaw who was doing all the damage, but Brown's form since the Vic Self Love Flagellation Event has been ominous to say the least.
Brown & Bradshaw vs Rutten & Bock
Adelaide may have won the last 3 encounters between these two teams, but they have never had to counter both Bradshaw and Brown in the same game. Last year Bradshaw was missing, after having had his knee reconstructed. The year before, it was Brown who was MIA through injury.
Fortunately, Adelaide have 2 of the 3 best defenders in the league and are thus better equipped than most to cope with the dynamic duo. Ben Rutten has a great record against Brown, and Bock should have the mobility to go with Bradshaw and to keep him quiet.
Black vs Shirley
Simon Black has been in Brownlow Medal winning form this year, picking up 25+ disposals in 10 of 12 games this year. Not only does he get a lot of disposals, but he makes sure he hurts you with them. Robert Shirley is Adelaide's #1 tagger and I expect him to get the job. He has shown great form recently in negating his opponents, with Judd and Foley both amongst his victims.
Tippett vs Merrett
Kurt Tippett kicked 4 goals in R8 against the Demons, but has been badly down on form since then. Put bluntly, his kicking for goal has been terrible. Nevertheless, the youngster cuts an imposing figure at 201cm and has been thrust into the role of Adelaide's only tall forward. I don't know a lot about Brisbane's defenders - though I did note their impressive efforts last week - but I'm fairly sure Daniel Merrett is their best tall defender.
What To Expect?
Brisbane's gameplan is relatively simple. Get the ball to Brown & Bradshaw and let them bang it through the big sticks. Given the firepower offered by this pair, it's a fairly effective strategy.
Adelaide's gameplan will be to block Brisbane's run through the midfield. We do this by a rolling flood - starting at half forward, then rolling back into defence as our opponents move the ball forward. In the past Adelaide's defensive pressure has been enough against the Lions to see their midfielders turn the ball over. I would not be overly surprised to see it happen again this time.
Having looked at the scoreboards between these two clubs, I can safely guarantee one thing. There will be considerably more behinds kicked than goals - most likely by Brisbane, but an absolute certainty by Adelaide.
Brisbane are a very difficult team to beat on their own turf. Heck, they're not easy to beat anywhere, but they're particularly good when playing at home. However, Adelaide have no fear of the Gabbattoir, having won their two most recent encounters on this ground. I would expect the Crows to get up by a couple of goals.
Adelaide by 12.