AFL Round 15 - Geelong v Hawthorn, MCG, Saturday 10 July 2:10PM

[SJ]

AFL Premiership Round 15
Geelong V Hawthorn

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Saturday Jul 10
MCG 2:10 PM (Local Time)
Melbourne Forecast Melbourne Radar


Ladder:

Season Win/Loss

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The Geelong Perspective:

Originally Posted by [NAME]witsend[/NAME]
THE RIVALRY:

So...here we go again. Geelong v Hawthorn is a game that fans of both teams circle in at the start of each season for many reasons.
This is a genuine old-school rivalry that traces back to the 1989 Grand Final, countless close games, and obviously the 2008 Grand Final.
There is no doubt that since 1989, Hawthorn have almost always seemed to have brought their best to Geelong games, however one suspects that this current group, while respectful, are certainly not fearful of Hawthorn, having won 5 of the past 6 encounters. One could comfortably argue that Geelong, in fact, have somewhat turned the tables on the Hawks, by seeming to be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, a situation that was most certainly the reverse on countless occasions in the past, particularly at Kardinia Park, where you could almost guarantee a win against the odds to the Hawks, no matter what form or ladder position each team brought into the match. It has been said that Paul Chapman and Cam Mooney went so far as to make a pact after 2008 that they simply would refuse to allow/accept a Hawthorn victory against the Cats while they were still playing! Let's hope it works when just one is...

Ins and Outs:

Big ins for Geelong, with Cameron Ling expected to return, along with Harry Taylor and quite possibly Brad Ottens. Coupled with the successful inclusions last week of Kelly, Chapman and Corey, this is potentially a vastly superior team to that which lost to the Saints 2 weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if West keeps his spot in the ruck, thereby allowing Ottens to be played mainly as a key forward, should he be included, which would allow for what will certainly be diminished fitness.
Cam Mooney will be sorely missed as he put in a f goal, near BOG performance against the Hawks in Rd 2 this year, but the jPod has been in stellar form since then, although we have yet to see him dominate a game at the MCG as he has done at Skilled and Etihad.
Mitchell's omission with a broken hand is a significant loss for Hawthorn, as it gives Geelong the option of playing Ling on Luke Hodge, who has been in Brownlow-esque form of late and, of course, Hawthorn will miss Mitchell's in and under clearance work.
Ladson is also doubtful with a virus of some sort, but the Hawk's defence may well be strengthened by the return of Gibson and Campbell Brown.

Form

After a horror start to the season, Hawthorn have regrouped tremendously with 7 wins in a row. Although it can be argued that some were over "lesser" teams, you don't win that many games in a row with luck, or anything but good form.
Geelong have been struggling with a lack of consistency in team selection due to numerous injuries and suspensions, but apart from a worrisome goal-less 2nd half against the Saints in conditions that suited the St Kilda choke-hold style of play, they have shown remarkable depth and resilience to sit atop the ladder with only 3 losses for the year, a position one would imagine Bomber Thompson may well have accepted gladly at the start of the season, were it offered to him.
Basically you have arguably the best team, in the reigning Premiers, against the team with the longest winning streak. A tantalising situation!

Key Match-Ups

Ling-Hodge looks likely if Hodge stays in the mid-field or forward. It will take all of the Geelong captain's guile and patience to nullify the spiritual leader of the Hawks.
Rioli-?? is a poser for Geelong. I suspect Hunt may get the job, but don't be surprised if Enright is given a crack, as he did an outstanding job on Boomer Harvey last week, and could certainly make Cyril think about the defensive side of his game. Another option may be Kelly.
Taylor-Franklin looks fairly obvious to me. Franklin is capable of anything and as is usually the case, I am sure Harry will be ably assisted by Scarlett, Lonergan and even Mackie at various stages. Expect at least a couple of miracle goals from Buddy!
Roughead-Lonergan seems a lock. Lonergan has been a revelation this year and seems to be improving his one on one skills each week, but Roughead showed some signs of a return to form last week against the Bulldogs.
Sewell-Ablett seems likely, but Sewell is suffering from an interrupted pre-season, and is yet to achieve the form he is clearly capable of.
It is difficult to see Hawthorn having enough talented stoppers/mid-fielders to match Geelong's Fabulous 5-7 over 4 quarters, and this, as is usually the case with our opponents, is where the game may be lost by Hawthorn.
Our forward line poses problems for what has always been and under-sized Hawthorn defence. It is fair to say that historically, most of hawthorn's talent has been forward of centre, whereas Geelong have built from the back, but this year has seen an embarrassment of riches up forward for the Cats, particularly with the emergence of Podsiadly as a strong marking key forward, something we have lacked since the Brownless/Ablett days.
If Ottens is in, or even West, who showed some good signs last week as a key forward option, expect Geelong to try and isolate those players, where they should be able to comfortably dominate there likely opponents.

The result

On paper, Geelong look too strong across the board, but unfortunately the game is played at a football oval, so Geelong, as always, will have to bring their A-Game if they are to defeat an opponent that always fancies itself against the Cats, and is in arguably it's best form and on-field strength since 2008.
It is hard to see a blow-out for either team, but unless Geelong fail to turn up ready to play, I would expect at least a 3-5 goal victory to the Cats.
Hawthorn will no doubt use the Mitchell omission as fuel for a classic "backs to the wall" performance, which is what Clarkson has engendered in his group during his tenure. The Hawks also have players in Hodge, Franklin, Roughead and Rioli who can come close to winning a game off their own boots, but then Geelong have players like Chapman, Podsiadly, Bartel, Selwood and, of course, Ablett who if allowed can produce burst of unstoppable play, and blow a game out in 15 minutes.

Geelong by 23 points.

GO CATS!!!

AFL Round 15 Geelong V Hawthorn

 

[PoidaCat]

Nicely done SJ.

Cats to use Hawthorn's colours against them to Piss and Shit all over them.

Cats easily by 10-12 Goals.

 

[Xtreme]

Conditions play into Geelong's hands at the moment i feel.

I've tipped accordingly, would like a Hawthorn win.... don't see it happening (unless it was September ).

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

Late change. Hogan in. Corey out.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/97893/default.aspx

 

[cfc4life]

Jimmy!

 

[beez]

Selwood gets a free for a high tackle

 

[Jimpson]

Has Ottens forgotten how to kick? Thats three times now he's played on from a mark or free with a handball and it's resulted in 3 turnovers and 2 goals for hawks.

 

[Boxhead_31]

Is Buddy in any trouble for the round house hit to Lonergans jaw?

 

[Drummond]

Lewis has been spending more time up forward over the past month or so. It's certainly paying off so far today, he's drilled 2 goals in the opening term.

 

[PoidaCat]

Looks as though we are deliberately gifting Hawthorn goals to make it interesting.

 

[Jimpson]

Took to two seconds left in the first quarter before we had a decent kick to Pods

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

WoJo best on ground with about 4 touches. Ablett 13 disposals, yet contributed basically nothing.

Pretty well umpired I thought, though had a chuckle at Selwood's 'bulldozer'. Can't believe Franklin got that free, they usually let them go if he can get one hand up. Some bad bouncing though - no doubt the panel will look at dropping the umpire

Interesting Lewis gets ragdolled, umpire talks to Lewis, Franklin grabs jumper, umpire talks to Franklin. Milburn, then Ottens, then Chapman all have goes at Osborne....umpire talks to Osborne.

Franklin roundarm = that's what they have taught him to do. Free kick downfield was fair enough - even for him it'd would be a joke if reported.

 

[cfc4life]

Geelong have been unlucky with a couple of the hawks goals, cats to win by 12 i reckon, if pods gets the right delivery he will kick a bag

 

[Tapee]

Anything out there for the visually challenged?

 

[HolyRioli]

Anything out there for the visually challenged?

Are we still talking about the umpires?

Just kidding, I can't even watch the game in WA, so I would'nt know what it's like anyway

 

[Notorious_29]

God I hope Buddy doesn't go for that forearm, he is just so good to watch. Good game on our hands here, nothing in it.

 

[Jimpson]

We could dominate a game from start to finish, double the possessions against the hawks but we still wouldnt beat them by more than 2 goals.

 

[cfc4life]

Gift to buddy- hopeless

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Feel sorry for Taylor. He's copping the result of 18 months of umpire mistakes, much like Bartel in 2008.

(For the uninitiated, Bartel won massive quantities of ball by dropping at the knees and diving forward for push in the back - come grand final, the umpires dramatically changed their interpretations of HIM, and he didn't get any, even when absolutely buried).

Those frees are all there, but they're rarely if ever paid.

Geelong smacked us in general play that quarter. Ablett and Chapman switching forward, Chapman a much better midfielder so far. 7 point lead about right, we didn't punish them in the 1st, they let us off majorly in that quarter.

 

[caitsith01]

(For the uninitiated, Bartel won massive quantities of ball by dropping at the knees and diving forward for push in the back - come grand final, the umpires dramatically changed their interpretations of HIM, and he didn't get any, even when absolutely buried).

Bartel won massive quantities of ball by being one of the best players in the league, but please, do continue with your Hawthorn fantasies.

I actually there probably was a free there against Taylor. Buddy would have marked otherwise so worth a try - the only mistake was to talk back.

Speaking of consistently getting away with breaking the rules, when will the umpires start cracking down on (a) Franklin running off his line when kicking and (b) Hawthorn's Collingwood-style shepherding strategy when Hawks players are taking a kick?

Geelong doing their best to throw away a game they should be winning by at least a couple of goals, frustrating.

 

[Sharkey]

Good game but we probably should be 2 or 3 more goals up.
Bout time Buddy got a free.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

b) So long as ump calls play on first, then it's ok. (The first one was fine, the second he was too close IMO). If they have to whistle play on to avoid 50m, then they should have to whistle play on for the block. By the time the call came, the Hawk player was allready in contact.

a) They do - hence why almost every shot he has the man on the mark runs forward to smother, and he doesn't get 50m for men close on the left.

Bartel gets a normal run now, but for a while didn't have a back, mainly thanks to that dramatic shift in interpretation for HIM (not the rule) which happened before the GF (maybe PF too now I think about it). What frustrates me is it was so blatantly obvious a change to interpretations specifically for one player.

 

[caitsith01]

What frustrates me is it was so blatantly obvious a change to interpretations specifically for one player.

I definitely agree with that. I think certain players get it done in their favour (Judd, Ablett, Buddy) and others seem to get it against them for no real reason (Bartel and Selwood from the Cats, for example - Selwood has to literally be punched in the head now before he'll get a free).

 

[Lionel Lyon]

Geelong need to be taught how to take a standing kick. Maybe half a dozen times they've kicked into the man on the mark (Ablett's done it at least three times). What's up with that? Varcoe and Wojcinski are one fire though. Podi not having one of his better ones.

 

[Jimpson]

Hawks dominating us here. Yet we're now back in front.