Europe Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread:

Europe - War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/backdrop-to-the-war-in-ukraine.1302028/ If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[jatz14]

Lockheed aims to churn out dozens of F-16 pilots per year at new training center

COO talks potential Ukraine support, European expansion.

www.defenseone.com

Lockheed Martin just graduated the first students from its F-16 training center in Romania, but the company is already looking to expand it and double its production of pilots as the U.S. and its allies struggle to meet demand for training

“As Ukraine and the U.S. government determine what the best approach is for training Ukrainian pilots, if they determine that doing that in the Romanian center is the right approach, then we'll follow their lead and do that,” he said.

Ukraine, which recently received its first F-16 jets, has been frustrated by the slow production of pilots to fly them. Some are being trained by the U.S. military, while others are being trained in Denmark, but Denmark plans to close its facility after this year, and the U.S. pipeline must also handle commitments to train other countries’ pilots as well.

Ukraine’s F-16s could be serviced at Lockheed’s maintenance hub in Poland, which was built so the hundreds of F-16s operating in Europe don’t have to come back to the U.S. to get major maintenance work and upgrades, St. John said.

“Our intention for that facility is that it'll be a regional facility, and so Ukraine is certainly in the region....

While Lockheed expands its infrastructure in Europe, some U.S. defense companies have been in talks with Ukraine about joint production. Northrop Grumman recently announced it will make ammunition inside Ukraine, ...

“As Ukraine begins to expand its build out of its own industrial base for defense, and as their requirements evolve, long term, we would look to apply a similar model there, as we've applied in places like Poland,” St. John said.

This is going to be significant if this war keeps dragging on. More and more Western companies are setting up production facilities in Ukraine. This gives Ukraine some certainty over supply.

Factor in Ukrainian domestic production of things like their 400km an hour cluster munitions drones (basically a poor man's cruise missile), and Russian dreams of driving Ukraine to the point it cannot keep up the fight are getting, are getting further away, not closer.

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[wannabejack]

This is going to be significant if this war keeps dragging on. More and more Western companies are setting up production facilities in Ukraine. This gives Ukraine some certainty over supply.

Factor in Ukrainian domestic production of things like their 400km an hour cluster munitions drones (basically a poor man's cruise missile), and Russian dreams of driving Ukraine to the point it cannot keep up the fight are getting, are getting further away, not closer.

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Ukraine will be "testing" all their domestic produced weapons in russia soon.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had tested its first domestically produced ballistic missiles.

 

[barreness]

The challenges of life in Odesa.

Ukraine's Odesa Navigates Its Third Summer Of Full-Scale Invasion

With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in its third year, Ukrainians are adjusting to life during wartime. And the Black Sea resort city of Odesa is no exception.

www.rferl.org

"It's hard, but if we give up, the war will return in five or 10 years to our children, like it did in Georgia and other countries. So we have to live and fight," Tetyana said.

Kotets, in turn, says it's impossible to agree with Russia.
"They don't stick to their agreements," he said. "I think we should give them a strong push and then agree on them leaving."

With the war now in its third year, Ukrainians have generally become accustomed to the sound of explosions, though reactions can vary.
"There were moments when a missile flew right over the sea," Svertilova said. "It felt surreal -- some people were ducking, while others stayed at their table with a glass of wine."

Both in 2014 and in 2022, Odesa proved that Russia's influence in the city, though significant, has been overestimated. In both cases, citizens demonstrated they saw no future within Russia.

"We've managed to endure through the third year," museum Director Kulai said, "so the fourth shouldn't be worse. It won't be easy, but we'll get through it."

Odessa is kind of an interesting one.

A city of the Russian empire, with strong Jewish influence. But obviously more Ukrainian these days
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odesa#Demographics

• 1897[88]

1. Russians: 198,233 people (49.09%)
2. Jews: 124,511 people (30.83%)
3. Ukrainians: 37,925 people (9.39%)
4. Poles: 17,395 people (4.31%)
5. Germans: 10,248 people (2.54%)
6. Greeks: 5,086 people (1.26%)
7. Tatars: 1,437 people (0.36%)
8. Armenians: 1,401 people (0.35%)
9. Belarusians: 1,267 people (0.31%)
10. French: 1,137 people (0.28%)

• 2001[92]

1. Ukrainians: 622,900 people (61.6%)
2. Russians: 292,000 people (29.0%)
3. Bulgarians: 13,300 people (1.3%)
4. Jews: 12,400 people (1.2%)
5. Moldovans: 7,600 people (0.7%)
6. Belarusians: 6,400 people (0.6%)
7. Armenians: 4,400 people (0.4%)
8. Poles: 2,100 people (0.2%)

It was still a largely Russian speaking place in 2001 but the crack down would have changed that recently

Distribution of the population of the city of Odesa by native language according to the 2001 census:[96]

Language	Number	Percentage
Ukrainian	307 196​	30.41%​
Russian	654 128​	64.75%​
Other or undecided	48 974​	4.84%​
Total	1 010 298​	100.00%​

 

[wannabejack]

It was still a largely Russian speaking place in 2001 but the crack down would have changed that recently

Ukrainian is the country's only state language.
Russian does not have any special status in Ukraine. Just another language. You can speak it freely.

If your friends in russia had managed to do what they said when they started the 3 day special military operation, there would have been a crack down on the Ukrainian language.

 

[jatz14]

Ukrainian is the country's only state language.
Russian does not have any special status in Ukraine. Just another language. You can speak it freely.

If your friends in russia had managed to do what they said when they started the 3 day special military operation, there would have been a crack down on the Ukrainian language.

Yeah, I'm studying Korean. I cannot use it at work though, they must be having a crack down on Korean speakers.

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[Zidane98]

Yeah, I'm studying Korean. I cannot use it at work though, they must be having a crack down on Korean speakers.

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According to comrade barreness there must be a crackdown on the large amount of Chinese speakers in Australia because it isn't an official language.

2.7% of the population! https://profile.id.com.au/australia/language


And what about our Greek speakers? 230k of them must be feeling suppressed by the crackdown on Greek language as it is not an official or protected language of Australia.

 

[wannabejack]

China respects sovereignty and territorial integrity except when it's russia doing the invading.

 

[Aussie in exile]

China respects sovereignty and territorial integrity except when it's russia doing the invading.

China will want to get involved in the Russian rebuild and Russia will pay in oil, which in turn means very little oil for Russia to export which will return Russia to a 3rd world country again.

 

[rank and file]

The challenges of life in Odesa.

Ukraine's Odesa Navigates Its Third Summer Of Full-Scale Invasion

With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in its third year, Ukrainians are adjusting to life during wartime. And the Black Sea resort city of Odesa is no exception.

www.rferl.org

"It's hard, but if we give up, the war will return in five or 10 years to our children, like it did in Georgia and other countries. So we have to live and fight," Tetyana said.

Kotets, in turn, says it's impossible to agree with Russia.
"They don't stick to their agreements," he said. "I think we should give them a strong push and then agree on them leaving."

With the war now in its third year, Ukrainians have generally become accustomed to the sound of explosions, though reactions can vary.
"There were moments when a missile flew right over the sea," Svertilova said. "It felt surreal -- some people were ducking, while others stayed at their table with a glass of wine."

Both in 2014 and in 2022, Odesa proved that Russia's influence in the city, though significant, has been overestimated. In both cases, citizens demonstrated they saw no future within Russia.

"We've managed to endure through the third year," museum Director Kulai said, "so the fourth shouldn't be worse. It won't be easy, but we'll get through it."

Suprised the mayor Odesa hasn't copped a bullet yet,mafia bro's keeping him safe.
Crimea is the battleground,win that win the war.

 

[rank and file]

China will want to get involved in the Russian rebuild and Russia will pay in oil, which in turn means very little oil for Russia to export which will return Russia to a 3rd world country again.

Lol, China will most likely help repair Nordstream 2 after the Russians blew it up.

Not sure how far you are going back to say Russia was a 3rd world country.

 

[Aussie in exile]

Lol, China will most likely help repair Nordstream 2 after the Russians blew it up.

Not sure how far you are going back to say Russia was a 3rd world country.

Prior to the 1st world war.
Not that long ago, and why they were beaten by 1917 in it.

 

[Zidane98]

Lol, China will most likely help repair Nordstream 2 after the Russians blew it up.

Not sure how far you are going back to say Russia was a 3rd world country.

China currently are forcing Russia to pay for new gas supply lines from Russia.


So in essence Russia will have to spend a fortune to supply gas to China at heavily discounted prices. Not sure if Russia will ever get back most of its European business again but really would be better off for Russia to pursue peace and supply gas to Europe with all infrastructure already in place. Ukraine have refused to allow any further Russian gas transit to Europe which I am sure would change if Russia agreed to withdraw completely from Ukraine and declare peace.

 

[Aussie in exile]

China currently are forcing Russia to pay for new gas supply lines from Russia.


So in essence Russia will have to spend a fortune to supply gas to China at heavily discounted prices. Not sure if Russia will ever get back most of its European business again but really would be better off for Russia to pursue peace and supply gas to Europe with all infrastructure already in place. Ukraine have refused to allow any further Russian gas transit to Europe which I am sure would change if Russia agreed to withdraw completely from Ukraine and declare peace.

Our pro Russian posters are obvioulsy not aware of how much in oil Russia is paying off is debt to China in, and if the engage their brains they will realise that there won't be a lot of money for the bebuild of the Russia military.
While the West will help rebuild Ukraine, China will help rebuild Russia, but it will cost Russia in huge amounts of oil.

 

[Zidane98]

Yep, China's plan all along has been let Russia destroy itself so it becomes reliant on China for supply which means Russia has to sell natural resources at a huge discount to them. China will dictate everything in this new trade relationship to suit itself.

 

[barreness]

Ukrainian is the country's only state language.
Russian does not have any special status in Ukraine. Just another language. You can speak it freely.

If your friends in russia had managed to do what they said when they started the 3 day special military operation, there would have been a crack down on the Ukrainian language.

Righto
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_media_in_Ukraine

Since the Euromaidan of 2013–2014, the Ukrainian government has issued several laws aimed at encouraging Ukrainization in the media, in education and in other spheres.

In February 2017, the Ukrainian government banned the commercial importation of books from Russia, which had accounted for up to 60% of all titles sold in Ukraine.[24]

On May 23, 2017, the Ukrainian parliament approved the law that most broadcast content should be in Ukrainian (75% of national carriers and 50% of local carriers).

The 2017 law on education provides that Ukrainian language is the language of education at all levels except for one or more subjects that are allowed to be taught in two or more languages, namely English or one of the other official languages of the European Union (i.e. excluding Russian).[25] The law does state that persons belonging to the indigenous peoples of Ukraine are guaranteed the right to study at public pre-school institutes and primary schools in "the language of instruction of the respective indigenous people, along with the state language of instruction" in separate classes or groups.[25][relevant?] The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) has expressed concern with this measure and with the lack of "real consultation" with the representatives of national minorities.[26] In July 2018, The Mykolaiv Okrug Administrative Court liquidated the status of Russian as a regional language, on the suit (bringing to the norms of the national legislation due to the recognition of the law "On the principles of the state language policy" by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine as unconstitutional) of the First Deputy Prosecutor of the Mykolaiv Oblast.[27] In October and December 2018, parliaments of the city of Kherson and of Kharkiv Oblast also abolished the status of the Russian language as a regional one.[28]

The 2019 language law made Ukrainian mandatory in a number of spheres of public life.

In 2021 Dnipropetrovsk District Administrative Court [uk] cancelled the regional language status of Russian in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[29]

In January 2022, a law requiring all print media to be published in Ukrainian came into force. It did not ban publication in Russian; however, it stipulated that a Ukrainian version of equivalent circulation and scope must be published – which is not a profitable option for publishers. Critics argue that the law could disenfranchise the country's Russian-speakers.[30]

Since February 2022, the beginning of Russian invasion, the everyday usage of Russian language in Ukraine is notably decreased from 33% in 2021 to 23% in 2022.[31]

 

[barreness]

According to comrade barreness there must be a crackdown on the large amount of Chinese speakers in Australia because it isn't an official language.

2.7% of the population! https://profile.id.com.au/australia/language


And what about our Greek speakers? 230k of them must be feeling suppressed by the crackdown on Greek language as it is not an official or protected language of Australia.

See above.

I swear you guys can't do basic research. Look it's understandable, Ukraine has been trying to distance itself from Russia for thirty years, don't try to pretend it isn't happening

 

[barreness]

According to comrade barreness there must be a crackdown on the large amount of Chinese speakers in Australia because it isn't an official language.

2.7% of the population! https://profile.id.com.au/australia/language


And what about our Greek speakers? 230k of them must be feeling suppressed by the crackdown on Greek language as it is not an official or protected language of Australia.

You meme hard my friend.

It was a widely spoken language and its was cracked down on no? Zelensky himself was a russian speaker from family and has refused to do so in public since taking the presidency

 

[rank and file]

Prior to the 1st world war.
Not that long ago, and why they were beaten by 1917 in it.

Thanks for the history lesson.
'The Master and Margarita' is my favourite Russian book.
Fave Ukraine book 'Challenge Management'.


Personally I'd give it 4.5 stars.

 

[barreness]

China currently are forcing Russia to pay for new gas supply lines from Russia.


So in essence Russia will have to spend a fortune to supply gas to China at heavily discounted prices. Not sure if Russia will ever get back most of its European business again but really would be better off for Russia to pursue peace and supply gas to Europe with all infrastructure already in place. Ukraine have refused to allow any further Russian gas transit to Europe which I am sure would change if Russia agreed to withdraw completely from Ukraine and declare peace.

You're so silly man.

How is it forced? You are one of few customers that will buy our gas currently, will you buy some more, sure build pipeline, trade happens

Did you miss nord stream? their most profitable pipeline was blown up by Ukrainians(or US state dept etc), killing Germany's industrial sector. Russian gas still comes into Europe but only through Ukrainian pipelines so they can profit, they haven't refused shit if they can get coin off it which they are in dire need of

 

[Zidane98]

You're so silly man.

How is it forced? You are one of few customers that will buy our gas currently, will you buy some more, sure build pipeline, trade happens

Did you miss nord stream? their most profitable pipeline was blown up by Ukrainians(or US state dept etc), killing Germany's industrial sector. Russian gas still comes into Europe but only through Ukrainian pipelines so they can profit, they haven't refused shit if they can get coin off it which they are in dire need of

You need to update your scripts tovarisch



Germany's industrial sector is just fine. Netherlands have Europe's biggest gas field that's untapped.

Also the trade relationship you describe with China is forced so I guess we can say you got that one right.

However there are problems



Any other new pipelines are going to take years and result in gas supplied at much lower prices than European customers with existing infrastructure in place.

If Putin was smart he would withdraw from Ukraine completely and do a bilateral gas deal with the EU.

Unfortunately he is a raging fascist with delusions of a new Russian Empire & a "final solution" for Ukraine / Ukrainians.

 

[wannabejack]

See above.

I swear you guys can't do basic research. Look it's understandable, Ukraine has been trying to distance itself from Russia for thirty years, don't try to pretend it isn't happening

My objection was the use of the word crackdown (deal severely) in your initial post.
Your use of the words "distance itself'" is more accurate.

 

[Zidane98]

My objection was the use of the word crackdown (deal severely) in your initial post.
Your use of the words "distance itself'" is more accurate.

Exactly this.

The facts are Russian is spoken widely in Ukraine and isn't cracked down on at all.

Ironically Ukranian speaking in occupied areas of Ukraine is cracked down on severely.

 

[Chief]

You meme hard my friend.

It was a widely spoken language and its was cracked down on no? Zelensky himself was a russian speaker from family and has refused to do so in public since taking the presidency

Why are you both-sidesing every event and aspect of this war when one country, and one country alone, commenced hostilities?

 

[wannabejack]

Putin sees support slump in tightly controlled state poll

Russia's state-owned Public Opinion Research Center has identified a drop in approval for Vladimir Putin amid Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast.

www.newsweek.com

Support for Vladimir Putin within Russia has dipped, according to a poll which has shown the highest level of dissatisfaction with the country's authorities since the president announced a partial mobilization nearly two years ago.

The survey was by the state-owned Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) whose polls typically reflect Kremlin interests and are not a real snapshot of public opinion because of the tightly-controlled media environment where dissent is punished.

 

[Zidane98]

Why are you both-sidesing every event and aspect of this war when one country, and one country alone, commenced hostilities?

Almost as if he/she is reading from a script.