Bluemour Discussion Thread XII - Facts Not Welcome (cont in pt 13)

[Beast__Mode]

It’s a little bit too much history baggage to involve #1 for mine.

If you combine;

- our track record with ankles (Daisy),
- a lack of confidence in our medical team
- 2 thirds of the deal have significant injury histories (Setterfield, Scully)
- the potential of Walsh

I’m not a huge fan. But, the absolute best person to weigh all these competing factors is SOS, and this is why he can afford Noosa trips during school holidays.

 

[gardiner stand]

One thing is for sure , this trade period will be massive with players changing clubs left right and centre

 

[kjr8]

Of course we can become a good side.

But I think some on here are really underrating the Hawks and in particular Clarkson. At the start of 2017 they were getting pummelled and everyone was saying they were done. A year later they make top 4 with a heap of different players to 2016 and 2017. Mitchell, O’Meara, Gunston etc are in their primes. They are not going to be looking to bottom out and hit the early stages of drafts.

Shiel is picking where to play for probably 4-5 years, 6-7 if whispers of Carlton or St Kilda throwing godfather offers are true. In 4-5 years Mitchell, O’Meara, Gunston, Sicily etc are not just going to suddenly be cooked. They are not old.

I hope Carlton can get better soon. But think about it like this. Even if Shiel comes this offseason him and a Setterfield plus a Walsh isn’t going to suddenly rocket us up the ladder. So there’s a year spent on a rebuilding team. The year after I’d expect improvement but again I think we’d be up against it to make the 8. Then there’s another 2 maybe 3 years after that. Teams trending upwards typically don’t end up straight in grand final contention, so even if we do see some decent improvement Shiel could be likely to spend 4-5 years just fighting to get up the ladder. It’s a hard sell, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he chose the Hawks. They’re already in the top 4 with developed players and a great coach. There are a lot less unknowns.

I rate and respect Clarkson as much as anyone. I just feel that this year was a little bit of a false dawn. Perfect storm of negotiable fixture and winning a number of close games.

Mitchell, Gunston, JOM, Breust, Smith are elite.. but Roughead, Big boy, Burgoyne, poppy are all closer to the end than prime..

Next batch there are Burton, Hardwick and not much else, despite that much vaunted quickest rebuild.

Not saying their slide is imminent, but unless (by Clarkson’s own admission), they get more elite talent, then they’re a long way off and no guarantee to stay near the top.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Of course we can become a good side.

But I think some on here are really underrating the Hawks and in particular Clarkson. At the start of 2017 they were getting pummelled and everyone was saying they were done. A year later they make top 4 with a heap of different players to 2016 and 2017. Mitchell, O’Meara, Gunston etc are in their primes. They are not going to be looking to bottom out and hit the early stages of drafts.

Shiel is picking where to play for probably 4-5 years, 6-7 if whispers of Carlton or St Kilda throwing godfather offers are true. In 4-5 years Mitchell, O’Meara, Gunston, Sicily etc are not just going to suddenly be cooked. They are not old.

I hope Carlton can get better soon. But think about it like this. Even if Shiel comes this offseason him and a Setterfield plus a Walsh isn’t going to suddenly rocket us up the ladder. So there’s a year spent on a rebuilding team. The year after I’d expect improvement but again I think we’d be up against it to make the 8. Then there’s another 2 maybe 3 years after that. Teams trending upwards typically don’t end up straight in grand final contention, so even if we do see some decent improvement Shiel could be likely to spend 4-5 years just fighting to get up the ladder. It’s a hard sell, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he chose the Hawks. They’re already in the top 4 with developed players and a great coach. There are a lot less unknowns.

Difference being, Hawks are building a list that will continue to play finals, Blues are building a list to win a premiership.

Even Boomer Harvey on Trade Radio tonight said he rates Carlton's list built higher than Hawthorn...having said that, Hawthorn historically get their man...

nuff said

 

[GapInIkonPark]

If the rumour of a package of GWS players (Shiel, Setterfield and Scully) is true, I hope A Kennedy is also part of the package.

Our run would be so much better with Docherty and Williamson back as well, O’Brien, Dow, Fisher, Pickett ... (and SPS after a pre-season).

 

[Blue and Blue]

Some things/offers need to be discussed in strict confidence. Nothing more secure than 26,000 feet in the air. We obviously made an offer he cant refuse. SOS wanted to highlight that a big drop fall is around the corner if he goes with the Hawks as they are on the way down.

I would be surprised if thats true. SOS wouldnt say that, because he doesnt know it for sure anymore than anybody else does. He would talk about Carlton. And the future of us.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Sorry mate, couldn’t disagree with you more.

This would go down as one of the best trades of all time if it went through.

We’d all love to see pick 1 in navy blue but this would be an offer surely too good to refuse.

I can’t believe it would be offered, let alone rejected.

This.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If we give up Sam Walsh for Shiel,
a player coming off a major ankle injury and a young player that did a non contact ACL, then we are nuts.
Do yourself a favor and listen to Andy Maher's interview with Sam.
Now, I'm ok with Giving up next years future first.
This is not a person but a speculative number

My thoughts exactly.

Why do you think they're willing to offer all that up?

They obviously know there's more value in this year's #1 pick.

 

[Beast__Mode]

One thing is for sure , this trade period will be massive with players changing clubs left right and centre

Not directed at you GS, but it seems We say that every year, and then every year there’s 4-5 days of absolutely nothing happening. Then a mad rush in the last two hours before the leaks start coming out about all the deals that might have been done if clubs started agreeing to deals earlier. AFL clubs are such amateurs with this stuff.

 

[gab213]

It was reported by one of the footy scribes a couple of days back. Not sure if true or not.

Thanks ODN, I had heard that Walls may be taking up a role at the club, what I am questioning is why people are referring to him as the 'powerbrokers' man'. I can't see that being the case with his past history.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Not really.

Shiel is free next year, Scully is 28, and Setterfield hasn’t played yet and has been broken down since he was 16. Got to be smarter than that.

Can we get rid of the nonsense about Shiel being free next year. If he's not coming to us this year, he's going elsewhere. If he stays at GWS this year, they may well find other players to offload for cap release next year. It's a silly statement as it relies on too many assumptions, essentially it is arrogant in that it assumes he's definitely going to come to us a year after we didn't want him enough to pony up the first time. Guys got options. Pounce or miss out

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Kennedy moved on the premise of midfield minutes, he’ll back in the pack again if we bring in these guys.

He will still get midfield minutes and would still be best 22.

 

[kjr8]

Has there been a club that was said to be “confident in getting their man” but didn’t? Besides norf of course.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dominator_7]

Am I the only one who thinks a private plane to Noosa smells a little of desperation?

We finished last and won two games. Gotta do something big to attract A Graders to such a Club. We’re leaving no stone unturned in our attempts to improve the list. No more trying out ‘something for nothing’ types. This is time to get serious. The media poked the bear belittling our Club and list management so much during the year, so now we’ll make them eat their words. ‘Why would anyone want to go to Carltin’ they all laughed. Well sit back and cop this!!!
Let the Hawks take the arrogant ‘ We are Hawthorn’ road where they offer less money and a shorteer length contract, but still think he’ll come for ‘success’ (even though it’s obvious their dynasty is long gone).

 

[Blue_Fusion]

If this is true, we’d be absolutely nuts to reject it.

No we wouldn't.

Scully's ankle injury?

Setterfield highly talented but highly injury prone. The kid has been injured including the 2 previous years to his draft year...

Shiel has about 3-4 years max of peak level footy left in him and we'd be lucky for the 4th year.

Walsh looks the goods for the next decade.

2019 1st + #25 for Shiel + Setterfield. They can keep Scully.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Wow okay, so things might actually be happening.

That's a pretty crazy deal for pick 1. Three high quality best 22 players if fit.

If all three are prepared to move to Carlton then we would be completely bonkers not take do this deal. And the bonus is we still have our 2019 first in the back pocket.

 

[Yubby]

Personally i think most are undervalueing the package of shiel setters and scully.

I think fair compo would be next years 1st and 2nd round, pick 25 this year and a mature access player. So a 1st, 2 x 2nds, mature player. Possibly a 3rd coming back or way.

Especially as those 3 plus MM will lift us potentially above pick 5 for our first.

 

[fnm_just a man]

Wonder if Shiel’s decision hinges on whether we agree to take Setters and Scully as well... so that he is walking into a team significantly stronger than that which ran out this year. Give him a bit of confidence that we won’t be total cellar dwellers..


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ParapMarkets]

I would be surprised if thats true. SOS wouldnt say that, because he doesnt know it for sure anymore than anybody else does. He would talk about Carlton. And the future of us.

Yes, I’d be disappointed if he was trying to rubbish his opponent. It reeks of insecurity. He’ll just be selling our future.

 

[chelseacarlton]

I haven’t totally caught up but
If these rumours are true
See ya later pick 1
OMFG

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

None of us know the extent of his injuries though and if he'll be back to full fitness anytime soon.

I think Carlton would know his injury status if we were entertaining the idea.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

He has plenty of value. The sheer amount of work he gets through and his ability to use the ball is pretty impressive. If he hadn't been injured, he'd go close to commanding what we got for Gibbs.

He would instantly be the 3rd best player in our side next year, and second best mid, not counting any other trades we bring in.

Yep 100% agreed.

 

[ParapMarkets]

My thoughts exactly.

Why do you think they're willing to offer all that up?

They obviously know there's more value in this year's #1 pick.

Not really, they know they’re in trouble with the salary cap next year, I totally understand them being open to trading Shiel now before free agency. Scully is actually the one I don’t understand, he is reportedly on not a very big salary and signed for a couple of more years

 

[Blue and Blue]

Thanks ODN, I had heard that Walls may be taking up a role at the club, what I am questioning is why people are referring to him as the 'powerbrokers' man'. I can't see that being the case with his past history.

Absolutely the opposite Wallsy. Always his own man if nothing else.

 

[The Bighouse]

Thanks ODN, I had heard that Walls may be taking up a role at the club, what I am questioning is why people are referring to him as the 'powerbrokers' man'. I can't see that being the case with his past history.

Apparently at the request to improve our coaches. Invite from Brad Lloyd under our coaches development program. Voluntary position.