Bluemour Discussion Thread XIV - Facts Not Welcome

[Manhattanite]

Looks like the AFL is going to get lots of prime time drama live on TV and we are playing our part. I think we will help GWS get more for Shiel or even help them walk away from the deal and have Shiel stay.

But all this talk does make me interested in trading our next years first for Pick 5 if that does end up with GCS. Being able to get another shot this year would be good but it could actually be more useful to let SOS see what he gets in live trading. Someone mentioned Pick 5 for 8 and 13. What about then trading down again to get 13 back into second rounders - or maybe someone SOS really likes falls to 13. SOS and the team will be very good at live trading so I hope they get that currency this year.


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[ParapMarkets]

Note that I said it would seem our 2018 performances have cost us these opportunities, and the only one that I might be wrong about in my grading is Scrimshaw.


What I'm saying is that we could had more names in the door, I'm not discounting the deals we have done (though I maintain the McGovern deal was way too much for what his playing role likely represents).

Those players wouldn't have been risk-averse had we actually performed to expectations this year. We fell miserably short, and key personnel got fired because of it.


As we've covered before, I don't think those Shiel and McGovern numbers are expected earnings, nor would any of them have demanded huge pay rises had they been convinced of a blue print where they all arrived. But to answer your question:

2018, 91% TPP - $11.46m
2019, 105% TPP - $13.4m
Total increase available: $1.96m

Out: Wright ($350k), Byrne ($350k), ASOS (let's say +$40k in cap compared to a usual rookie), Shaw (+$10k), O'Shea ($120k), Mullett ($200k), Rowe ($250k), Casboult ($300k), Lamb ($250k), Graham ($120k), Jones ($350k)
Total removed: $2.34m
New TPP total: $9.12m

Net pay-rises for remaining list, let's say... $1m? That leaves a remaining TPP amount of $3.33m.

Now let's take your list and be a shade more realistic with some of the players involved:

McGovern 600k
Setterfield 300k
Fasolo 300k
Shiel 850k
Scrimshaw 350k
Scully 550k
Gaff 850k
Pick 1 - $88k
Later picks - $80k x 2
Rookie picks - costs already accounted for

Total - $4.02m

At that point you're trying to convince the existing playing list to take a 7.5% pay cut (assuming you can't squeeze another $150k out of Shiel, Scrimshaw, Scully and Gaff), hence why the maybe with Gaff. Take him out, and it's pretty achievable, but it tightens things up down the line.

That's obviously a lot of guess work on my part in terms of salaries, so it might be worth trying to sit down and formulate the whole TPP structure based on what info we've heard over the years... but surely I'm not that far away? Keep in mind that senior minimum is $105k, and you're usually in the 200k-400k bracket if you're expected to get selected regularly.

I've also said before I'd never have given Phillips a 2 year deal, nor Kerr a 1 year offer. These things add up.

That article on the AFL website said half the recruiters wouldn’t have recruited Scrimshaw back in his draft year.......... at all. The contract he re-signed is reportedly close to $500K (I think the AFL needs to provide assistance to the Northern clubs re-signing draftees).

If we weren’t interested in drafting him anywhere in the draft 2 years ago and he has exhibited the same attributes in those 2 years that made us not want him in the first place, there’s no way we are going to sign him with a $500K p.a. price tag.

Between Scully and Scrim, the Hawks will be utilising about 8% of their salary cap. Mind you, they look like much better salary dump options than we took in the past few years. I would have loved for us to get Scully for what they paid for him, but as you mentioned, our crap year prevented that.

 

[ParapMarkets]

I'm not all that impressed by that list tbh.

With 1 obvious exception...

Lachie Weller would have been a fantastic recruit. We would have lost him for pick 2 and in turn recruited Cerra.

 

[blueballs99]

Someone give me odds on Carlton making the 8 and * missing out next year

Don't gamble and don't drink that's the best odds I can give you

 

[F_therest]

From what I gather on trade radio tonite, the trades of Scully and Setterfield, and the impending trade of Lobb tomorrow, GWS salary cap for 2019 in much better shape.

What I wouldn't give for the Shiel trade to fall over on the final day through the * playing hardball

Well none of us know the exact contract amounts left due to front and back-loading, but reports are Scully is on a $500k contract, Setterfield entering $400k and Lobb on $600k+...so they've already freed up about $1.5 million.

 

[gandaal]

Can't help but feel we'll always struggle to maintain a professional organisation if this is the decision making process around a potential generational talent suffering from a mild case of ennui...

Would a club have recruited Garry Ablett Snr under these deliberations? What do we have two psychologists at the club for?


That's definitely the risk, but the alternative is two of Lamb, Kerridge, Graham and Rowe. I'll take that bet if it's offered, but it was not.


Never said Will was small potatoes (assuming he's fit and ready to go), but Scully and Scrimshaw are relative to Shiel, Gaff, Beams, Lynch, etc.


We just finished last in a season in which we were expected to rise, that's what I'm referring to.


Good question, but the Hawks have bet a four year contract on him. I don't really rate whatever the Giants are doing up there in terms of training loads and injury management, because every year their list is made to look like it's full of blokes made out of chalk.


It's been made painfully clear that all Scrimshaw and Scully would have cost is a future third round pick.


6-8 wins in 2018 and I think a very different story would have unfolded, which was the point of my post.

Good on you for clarifying. We'll never know for sure.

Personally I thought this sort of year was almost inevitable as soon as we traded Gibbs and didn't get Rockliff, so I don't see the point wondering 'what if' when a much better result was so unlikely.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

You talking shit Jim?

 

[Jimmae]

That article on the AFL website said half the recruiters wouldn’t have recruited Scrimshaw back in his draft year.......... at all. The contract he re-signed is reportedly close to $500K (I think the AFL needs to provide assistance to the Northern clubs re-signing draftees).

If we weren’t interested in drafting him anywhere in the draft 2 years ago and he has exhibited the same attributes in those 2 years that made us not want him in the first place, there’s no way we are going to sign him with a $500K p.a. price tag.

Between Scully and Scrim, the Hawks will be utilising about 8% of their salary cap. Mind you, they look like much better salary dump options than we took in the past few years. I would have loved for us to get Scully for what they paid for him, but as you mentioned, our crap year prevented that.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-23/could-suns-duo-become-secondchance-blues

Scrimshaw, 19, was one of four top-10 picks from the 2016 draft who committed to the Suns in March last year until the end of the 2020 season.

It is believed the quartet, including Ben Ainsworth, Jack Bowes and Will Brodie, will be on about $400,000 in each of the final two years of their contract.

There's also nothing stopping the kid from signing a new, longer deal, with a lower average wage.

As for the article, here's what I got out of it:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-16/bargain-or-bust-question-marks-over-new-hawk

"We would have battled (to draft him). He's a nice kid, Jack, but it's just such a hard environment.

"He certainly had the ability, but whether he had that real self-drive was the question. The ball's in his court, really."

That, plus his injury history, is what's scared teams away.

Footy's got some serious image and culture problems at the moment, so I'm pretty disappointed that as a rebuilding club, we're not interested in rolling up our sleeves and trying to better define where AFL fits in the national identity, and what it can do for the general public. If AFL House, the clubs and broadcasters are still selling that tribal/underdog nonsense in 10 years time, the game's growth will suffer.

One way we can drive that kind of change is coming up with a way to convince a kid like Scrimshaw what he and others get out of him performing on match day. The dream of being a sports star used to be a pure, community-centric one for many people, and I think that's an archetype that this kid would embrace with a bit of guidance.

 

[BlueTongue]

I’m 50/50 on Shiel = on reflection from the below is prob more like 40/60..
Pro: improves the midfield now (wants to play inside), can break the lines - which is something we need
Cons: $$ cost is overs, he chose *, draft cost (next year’s 1st is ok with something back our way)

Agree with all of this. Since he chose *, all of the shine has gone for me (I never rated him that highly, but is the type of mid we need).
Almost worth a future first though, just to see the * supporters choking on missing the deal.

 

[Zuribagger]

Don’t expect him to have ****** up so badly but he has always pushed the boundaries. Maybe he has misjudged this one immensely. Even so, you’d think that the risk of extreme backlash alone that would come with * failure to execute a deal where a star mid has nominated them would be reason enough for him to swallow his pride and cough up the extra first. Time will tell I guess. I don’t buy into the media dragging this one out for a bit of drama though, it’s just Dodoro trying to get away with unders all week, which has obviously frustrated GWS off enough for them to start talking to us again.

Dodo knows * has been nominated and have the father-in-law connection - no wonder he's pushing the boundaries. Sadly odds are that GWS is using us as a threat but good on us for remaining interested (if only to push *'s price up). Would be great if we get him on fair terms and good if they don't get him for unders.

 

[BlueTongue]

Well none of us know the exact contract amounts left due to front and back-loading, but reports are Scully is on a $500k contract, Setterfield entering $400k and Lobb on $600k+...so they've already freed up about $1.5 million.

If they are still willing to trade Sheil it makes me wonder how much they must be over...

 

[mediumsizered]

He is their 5th best mid
Kelly
Cogs
Ward
Whitfield
Sheil

Hopper and taranto soon to overtake.
They happy to let him go

GWS have definitely allowed their most expendable players to move on. They wouldn't have even entertained offers for Kelly, Cogs, Whitfield, Ward or Taranto. They have offloaded significant salary while keeping their best 4 midfielders & will end up with some pretty handy draft picks from which to add some talent. I think they have played this trade period very well.

 

[mediumsizered]

Ignore poster function. Works for me.

I'm getting an extension added to my dungeon at the moment, then some more will be headed that way.

 

[WeninRome]

Regarding Newman coming to us for a future 4th. He’s an uncontracted free agent, why would we need to trade a pick to get him?

 

[mediumsizered]

Regarding Newman coming to us for a future 4th. He’s an uncontracted free agent, why would we need to trade a pick to get him?

Not quite yet. It was suggested the Swans had a 1 year offer on the table for him, but he hasn't accepted it.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

The way the AFL.com site is dribbling on about how exciting the final day of the trade period will be has me definitely convinced these deals have been intentionally left until the last day...

The AFL really knows no bounds

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Regarding Newman coming to us for a future 4th. He’s an uncontracted free agent, why would we need to trade a pick to get him?

I don't believe he is an FA.. while he is a bit older he was only drafted four years ago.. and he wont be a DFA unless Syndey dont offer a contract which hasn't happened yet

 

[Manhattanite]

If they are still willing to trade Sheil it makes me wonder how much they must be over...

They can probably afford to keep Shiel on the books next year but that’s only because they pushed back Toby Greene’s salary to future years. If Shiel is leaving end of 2019 anyway their thinking must be let’s get some draft picks in and let’s save the money for other deals. So if Shiel leaves they can afford to bring other salaries into 2019 and they could try to get a free agent end of 2019.


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[Tushay]

The way the AFL.com site is dribbling on about how exciting the final day of the trade period will be has me definitely convinced these deals have been intentionally left until the last day...

The AFL really knows no bounds

Yep, Gillon consults his brand equity advisor before performing basic bodily functions. Probably wise, because when he doesn't get advice he does stupid things like request emergency visas for au pairs and Argentinian polo players.

 

[Nori]

Note that I said it would seem our 2018 performances have cost us these opportunities, and the only one that I might be wrong about in my grading is Scrimshaw.

All you're really advocating is a return to the trading strategy that SOS had been employing 2-3 years ago. There was no problem getting players to come to Carlton then. Check out all the high draft picks that were keen to get to Carlton in those days. Best of all they were all super cheap!

Liam Sumner
Sam Kerridge
Jed Lamb
Billie Smedts
Rhys Palmer

... and before SOS Daisy (with the ankle) chose Carlton as a free agent. Bargain!

Getting risky players in for next to nothing is necessary when you don't have any draft picks, or you have really poor depth. Fortunately, Carlton have now transitioned to targeting players of proven quality and character. We’ll probably see the more speculative prospects on our rookie list.

 

[Jabba73]

The way the AFL.com site is dribbling on about how exciting the final day of the trade period will be has me definitely convinced these deals have been intentionally left until the last day...

The AFL really knows no bounds

Would be hilarious if the AFL have asked clubs to do this and someone gets cold feet making a deal fall over. The clubs would publicly blow the whistle on this shameless grandstanding. Fallout would be interesting

 

[WeninRome]

I don't believe he is an FA.. while he is a bit older he was only drafted four years ago.. and he wont be a DFA unless Syndey dont offer a contract which hasn't happened yet

From what I’ve read he is out of contract?

 

[ozdevil]

do we really need the last hours or so on live tv in trade week , i really dont think it is good veiwing as all we are going to be seeing is ex footballers in the media telling us behind these closed doors is carlton and the giants doing a deal for whoever... we are not going to see what is actually happening with the trades as clubs involved wont want the media in there listening

 

[Opine]

We're being used to prop up GWS's best alternative to a negotiated deal with *.

If it were any other team, other than *, it wouldn't bother me to let them take advantage of GWS's supposed preference to deal with them in first place. However, it would be stupid not to help GWS stir things up in the hope that the deal collapses and something falls.

Not expecting anything, but nonetheless happy *heil day to everyone.

 

[sosos]

OMFG, David Teague had the looks of an international model, but was as hard as chinese algebra...

Hickmott was just total kamikaze...not often ended a game without his head being bandaged up

Darren Hulme.