Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[Chemical]

I like the cut of your jib sir.

Much better use of him than just plonking him in the forward line and leaving him there and I think he's much more mobile than Charlie. Would also like to see Kemp trialled in the JSOS role.

Harry and Charlie together forward with high dump kicks in just isn't the most effective way to go about it.

Its a good point. Collingwood had really 0 key forwards. Hawthorn is going pretty well without a star forward. Maybe the game has moved on from key pillars.

 

[Dramoth]

Reading the new rumour. Makes sense as the saints were really into Tom last year before he signed an extension with us.

Are we willing to part ways with TDK for Petrecca? I would assume it be a 3-way trade between Us/Saints/Melbourne if this were to occur.

Be something like.

Carlton
In: Petrecca
Out: TDK, Carlton 2024 3rd Rd (36-54 Range)

Saints:
In: TDK, Melbourne 2024 2nd Rd (Pick 23)
Out: StK 2024 1st Rd Pick (Pick 7)

Melbourne
In: StK 2024 1st Rd Pick (Pick 7), Carlton 2024 3rd Rd (36-54 Range)
Out: Petrecca, Melbourne 2024 2nd Rd (Pick 23)

Melbourne go into the draft with Pick 5 & 7 and rebuild?

Can't tell if I am under/over evaluating TDK.

Not enough for TDK. Melbourne would also want someone like Max King as part of the deal. We'd be swapping one of the best ruckmen in the league for a midfielder? We'd want at least a first round pick coming back our way.

This would be a more likely deal

Carlton:
In: Petracca, Saints 1st round pick, Melbourne 2nd round pick
Out TDK, Carlton 2024 1st round pick

Saints:
In: TDK, Melbourne 1st round pick
Out: King, 2024 1st round pick

Melbourne:
In: Ben King, Carlton 1st round pick
Out: Petracca, 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd Round pick

Melbourne get their tall forward and a downgrade on their first round pick. Lose Petracca.
St Kilda gets an upgrade on their first round pick and get TDK, Loses Max King.
Carlton loses TDK, gets Petracca and an upgrade on our first round pick that we can then ontrade to one of the teams with multiple first round picks in the teens. Plus we get the Melbourne Second round pick.

 

[BlueJet]

Not enough for TDK. Melbourne would also want someone like Ben King as part of the deal. We'd be swapping one of the best ruckmen in the league for a midfielder? We'd want at least a first round pick coming back our way.

This would be a more likely deal

Carlton:
In: Petracca, Saints 1st round pick, Melbourne 2nd round pick
Out TDK, Carlton 2024 1st round pick

Saints:
In: TDK, Melbourne 1st round pick
Out: King, 2024 1st round pick

Melbourne:
In: Ben King, Carlton 1st round pick
Out: Petracca, 2024 1st round pick, 2024 2nd Round pick

Melbourne get their tall forward and a downgrade on their first round pick. Lose Petracca.
St Kilda gets an upgrade on their first round pick and get TDK, Loses Ben King.
Carlton loses TDK, gets Petracca and an upgrade on our first round pick that we can then ontrade to one of the teams with multiple first round picks in the teens. Plus we get the Melbourne Second round pick.

JMO - Melbourne are giving up too much there, at a guess they'd rather cut us out of that deal & go :King + a first from the Saints for Petracca.

 

[Soapy V]

I like the cut of your jib sir.

Much better use of him than just plonking him in the forward line and leaving him there and I think he's much more mobile than Charlie. Would also like to see Kemp trialled in the JSOS role.

Harry and Charlie together forward with high dump kicks in just isn't the most effective way to go about it.

I went to all bar one game in Vic this year. The amount of times we went inside 50 and bombed it long to Charlie/McKay when we had other options on their own was nuts. The opposition just swarmed to them and we had little chance

The WCE game the first time we really lowered our eyes. We kicked more goals and the smalls could finally do their jobs.

It's my biggest frustration with how we play

The additon of 6-6-6, standing on the mark and HTB changes have made AFL an even more running game. You need to run in numbers and pick the best options. Good sides hit mobile targets inside 50 whether tall or small. We don't

 

[Dramoth]

JMO - Melbourne are giving up too much there, at a guess they'd rather cut us out of that deal & go :King + a first from the Saints for Petracca.

Then we get to keep TDK... which I am all for

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Its a good point. Collingwood had really 0 key forwards. Hawthorn is going pretty well without a star forward. Maybe the game has moved on from key pillars.

I think we need to take a page out of Hawthorn's book and play to our strengths and develop a gameplan that suits the assets we have. We have elite, big key forwards. We should promote them. Hawthorn don't so they play differenlty. We should be leaders not followers with our gameplan.

It would help if our big key forwards were umpired in accordance with the Rules, but alas.

 

[Arr0w]

Is that the same Cook that 6 months ago reviewed the high performance department and found there was nothing wrong with it?

Where was it stated that Cook said there was nothing wrong with the high performance department

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I can only see us getting Petracca if he is allowed to cut ties with the MFC due to grievances. But I highly doubt it gets to that level.

I also don’t see us offering up Cerra in a deal along with picks for Petracca. If Cerra is interested in leaving I’d actually be ok with it as I feel Lord replaces him in the starting 22. Think he is surplus to our ongoing needs and would free up some cash.

Melbourne no matter how they spin it, will still feel they are in premiership contention and a lot of their signings this year show that. They will have 1 last crack this year coming.

Cerra, our 2024 2nd and 2025 3rd for their 2024 1st (pick 5). (Murphy Reid or Sam Lalor).

 

[morningbrown]

Cerra and our first or our first this year and next year. Those are the only offers I'd be putting forward for Trac.

 

[Red Bull]

Same. The more I hear is that we are fairly happy with our List. We have some holes to fill, and if we can deal with injuries we are well in the window

All very well being in “the window” but to win a premiership history says you need to be in the top 4.
This midfield hasn’t managed it.
We lack the most important piece … the explosive goal kicking mid.
Cripps needs that help now, not more 18yo kids … and the clock’s ticking …

 

[Crippa#9]

I can only see us getting Petracca if he is allowed to cut ties with the MFC due to grievances. But I highly doubt it gets to that level.

I also don’t see us offering up Cerra in a deal along with picks for Petracca. If Cerra is interested in leaving I’d actually be ok with it as I feel Lord replaces him in the starting 22. Think he is surplus to our ongoing needs and would free up some cash.

Melbourne no matter how they spin it, will still feel they are in premiership contention and a lot of their signings this year show that. They will have 1 last crack this year coming.

Cerra, our 2024 2nd and 2025 3rd for their 2024 1st (pick 5). (Murphy Reid or Sam Lalor).

lol. c'mon Juddy. We're not trying to trade for Adam Tomlinson...

 

[Soapy V]

I think we need to take a page out of Hawthorn's book and play to our strengths and develop a gameplan that suits the assets we have. We have elite, big key forwards. We should promote them. Hawthorn don't so they play differenlty. We should be leaders not followers with our gameplan.

It would help if our big key forwards were umpired in accordance with the Rules, but alas.

So what do to "promote" them? Keep kicking to them?

It's not just Hawthorn, it's GWS (look how Hogan plays now and who he is surrounded by), it's Port, Geelong this year with Hawkins out, Pies last year?

In 2023 Pies didn't have one goal kicker over 50 goals BUT had 13 goal kickers in double figures and were still the 3rd highest scorer of the year

Can it work well with Charlie & McKay? Our course it can but as Leigh Mathews said we need to pick the best option when going forward not the best forward

 

[FlowersByIrene]

So what do to "promote" them? Keep kicking to them?

It's not just Hawthorn, it's GWS (look how Hogan plays now and who he is surrounded by), it's Port, Geelong this year with Hawkins out, Pies last year?

In 2023 Pies didn't have one goal kicker over 50 goals BUT had 13 goal kickers in double figures and were still the 3rd highest scorer of the year

Can it work well with Charlie & McKay? Our course it can but as Leigh Mathews said we need to pick the best option when going forward not the best forward

If I knew that I'd have Vossy's job. I suspect it's a combination of better leading lanes, more decoy leads, better delivery inside 50 and focus on crumbers at the foot of the ball with high-pressure should it fall to the defender.

 

[Red Bull]

Sounds like a sensible, calm approach, not panicking over premiership windows and seeking ageing million dollar stars.

Sounds like a laidback country club approach and all to familiar.
What’s 30 years between friends …
What have we been building for the last 10 years …
When is it going to be time to actually have the courage to pull the trigger and go for the title …
Where is the deadly serious expectation …
Damn sure Hawthorn don’t go about their business this way and the results are there to see over the years and decades …

 

[Soapy V]

All very well being in “the window” but to win a premiership history says you need to be in the top 4.
This midfield hasn’t managed it.
We lack the most important piece … the explosive goal kicking mid.
Cripps needs that help now, not more 18yo kids … and the clock’s ticking …

Just for balance. We missed the Top 4 by 2 games. Injuries killed us

Cripps had a great year
Hewett up and down
Kennedy was good but used elsewhere
Cerra injured all year and never got going but can play
Walsh has been restricted and struggled but can play

This group when up and running could easily get us more than 2 extra wins. Then there is

Elijah will move in there year and has it all. Change maker and explosive goal kicking mid
Lord will play games and will handle it. His skill set will help
Docherty will be back. Bigger loss than people realise. Star and goal kicking mid
I think Cincotta & Kemp can play there
A fit Durdin will have mid minutes and is dynamic as will Motlop if fit
Wilson is future but talented

IMO it's a good group that can make us better (and we will add to it). Just need a good run with injury

 

[charred_fate]

It is the whole club culture including a portion of the supporter base addicted to sugar hit of the name over fitness: Judd, Daisy, "Williams the Mid," Mcgovern, Martin

With all due respect, if that’s what you believe, you simply don’t get it.

The opposite is closer to the truth - most of those against the idea have found a position driven by emotion and are warping reality to fit their position.

 

[Blue since 72]

I went to all bar one game in Vic this year. The amount of times we went inside 50 and bombed it long to Charlie/McKay when we had other options on their own was nuts. The opposition just swarmed to them and we had little chance

The WCE game the first time we really lowered our eyes. We kicked more goals and the smalls could finally do their jobs.

It's my biggest frustration with how we play

The additon of 6-6-6, standing on the mark and HTB changes have made AFL an even more running game. You need to run in numbers and pick the best options. Good sides hit mobile targets inside 50 whether tall or small. We don't

100 percent.

Yes it was WC but the player mix and the way we entered the F50 was so much more effective in terms of playing a front half game style.

Kemp's ground work was another bonus and a player like Fog would be licking his lips.

And tbh I believe slow playing down the line (which we love) should still pay benefits as a smaller forward line will allow more flexibility re leads and the benefit of having more players around the fall of the ball. Our current version of slow around the boundary until we get to 80/85 then a dump kick to 40/45 leaves a shallow entry with lots of opposition covering the two tall targets we duck shove the problem to.

If you want to play a front half lock it in style shallow dumps into the F50 is literally the anti christ.

We've got two marque key forwards and they're not being used right.

 

[dazzledavey36]

Cerra and our first or our first this year and next year. Those are the only offers I'd be putting forward for Trac.

I'd take that.

In no crazy world does TDK get traded or even part of any trade discussion. The guy is an absolute gun.

 

[Coops93]

I went to all bar one game in Vic this year. The amount of times we went inside 50 and bombed it long to Charlie/McKay when we had other options on their own was nuts. The opposition just swarmed to them and we had little chance

The WCE game the first time we really lowered our eyes. We kicked more goals and the smalls could finally do their jobs.

It's my biggest frustration with how we play

The additon of 6-6-6, standing on the mark and HTB changes have made AFL an even more running game. You need to run in numbers and pick the best options. Good sides hit mobile targets inside 50 whether tall or small. We don't

I feel like I'm just replying to you today, but what you're saying has really engaged me.

I agree it has been the biggest frustration, and has been seemingly for 5+ yrs. Some of it I'm sure is the guys ball in hand thinking "I'll just give those guys a chance". For 1, it's the easy option, and 2 it's an option that you probably aren't getting chewed out for. Self-preservation and the easy choice both jump to mind here. You can just about hear the saying "If you're not sure just get it in there, Harry and Charlie are great targets"

The other side of it is, I don't think they work hard enough to get on leads and make presentable leading targets. How often do you see Charlie standing behind his defender 60m from the kicker with his arm in the air wanting a high kick? So often it's infuriating. Harry is a bit better at getting on the move but can fall into that trap at times as well. I also find H, for some reason, often gets on the lead marks from 48m out meaning he's just too far for a sound kick for goal. Not sure why that is, perhaps he needs to work on his lead timing and be more patient.

I can also see times where Charlie is on a good lead but the balls sat on his head so has to stop then 2 defenders crush into his back, so I can see why he would think it's not worth it and I do have some empathy for him in those situations. But one thing we know is just bombing it in is not the answer, so Harry and Charlie have to get on the move to keep this forwardline working even if the delivery is sub-optimal, we have to move past the days of 50 inside 50s that are just a game of bombs up.

 

[Michael Jezz]

With all due respect, if that’s what you believe, you simply don’t get it.

The opposite is closer to the truth - most of those against the idea have found a position based on emotion and are warping reality to fit their position.

Most of the supporters against the idea of trading a fit Mckay or TDK for Petracca are not warping reality but basing their position on the club's habitual behaviour and the consequence of trading in players with fitness clouds. It is not even a question of avoiding Petracca altogether. It can be done for a draft picks not the sacrifice of star players and Carlton must know Petracca is 90% fit.

 

[mochacinolatte]

I went to all bar one game in Vic this year. The amount of times we went inside 50 and bombed it long to Charlie/McKay when we had other options on their own was nuts. The opposition just swarmed to them and we had little chance

The WCE game the first time we really lowered our eyes. We kicked more goals and the smalls could finally do their jobs.

It's my biggest frustration with how we play

The additon of 6-6-6, standing on the mark and HTB changes have made AFL an even more running game. You need to run in numbers and pick the best options. Good sides hit mobile targets inside 50 whether tall or small. We don't

Like idk how this is even possible. We literally have 2 most athletic forwards and we don't even try to kick into space and it's a giant bomb inside 50. Walsh was so good i50 but he has sprayed everything this year.

 

[agro]

I went to all bar one game in Vic this year. The amount of times we went inside 50 and bombed it long to Charlie/McKay when we had other options on their own was nuts. The opposition just swarmed to them and we had little chance

The WCE game the first time we really lowered our eyes. We kicked more goals and the smalls could finally do their jobs.

It's my biggest frustration with how we play

The additon of 6-6-6, standing on the mark and HTB changes have made AFL an even more running game. You need to run in numbers and pick the best options. Good sides hit mobile targets inside 50 whether tall or small. We don't

I was pulling my hair out watching that WC game - if we provided the same service to Charlie and Harry that we were providing to our forwards during that game they (being Charlie and Harry) would be waxing the Coleman for the next 10 years.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

I went to all bar one game in Vic this year. The amount of times we went inside 50 and bombed it long to Charlie/McKay when we had other options on their own was nuts. The opposition just swarmed to them and we had little chance

The WCE game the first time we really lowered our eyes. We kicked more goals and the smalls could finally do their jobs.

It's my biggest frustration with how we play

The additon of 6-6-6, standing on the mark and HTB changes have made AFL an even more running game. You need to run in numbers and pick the best options. Good sides hit mobile targets inside 50 whether tall or small. We don't

The Giants game round 6 at Marvel if I’m remembering correctly was also a game where we actually went into F50 with far better method and delivery, makes a hell of a difference..

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Like idk how this is even possible. We literally have 2 most athletic forwards and we don't even try to kick into space and it's a giant bomb inside 50. Walsh was so good i50 but he has sprayed everything this year.

The problem imo isn't the kicking so much as the forward setup and leading patterns. Our tall forwards often stand behind their opponents and call for the high ball. Often beyond the kicking range of who has the ball. Also when we have a set play like a free kick from outside 50 our forwards set up essentially a zone similar to the defender zone so the whole F50 is covered with minimal open space for anyone to lead into. It's basically like we ask the opposition where they'd like us to stand and we set up exactly how they ask us to.
The only time we really seem to get anyone clear is when on a fast break before the opposition can get back.

 

[Doro]

Thanks for the info, Soap.

Surprised small forwards with pace aren’t a key focus.

———

I’ve noticed Saad doesn’t really go on those long, fast runs much anymore. Is that age catching up with him, or an instruction to play more defensively?

I think a lot of the opposition planning focuses on corralling Saad onto his right foot, makes him a lot less effective, and our transition speed suffers for it.