Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXV - 'Loopy' Season has begun

[Blue_Fusion]

Yeah they can ask for those guys. We won’t entertain it. We’d be open to Petracca but not if it means losing a key piece. Picks would be what gets it done or we pull out of the running. Let’s be real, the Dees need picks more than they need a 27 year old key forward if they’re starting a rebuild. Else they think they’re still in contention next year.

They are also within their right to hold him to his contract. Good luck keeping a guy who doesn’t want to be there though and when other players don’t want him there - essentially a quote from footy classified tonight. ‘Several demons think it’s better that he move on because damage has been done’. It barely ever works out holding a legitimately disgruntled player. They don’t put in their all. It causes rifts with other players. Things can spiral out of control. Under normal circumstances they’d hold the whip hand with him being contracted but if the articles and reports are to be believed, then there’s not much chance of him returning to them next year with fractures relationships and all. I think it stems quite deep and I think there may be a bigger fallout than just Petracca at the Dees.

Also on Cerra, he finished super high up in our B&F last year.. I think this years injuries have made us all forget how good he actually is. Melbourne if they got him (and picks) would be getting a guy with more years ahead and more chance of being in their next premiership tilt.

We won't be able to get the deal done with picks though...

Petracca is on a ton... we'd need to offload that from somewhere...

Whether we like it or not, if we're going to enter the race for Petracca, we need to accept that we will be losing something very significant...

 

[Stamos]

Hawks won 3 flags after buddy left. They lost the 2012 final against Sydney.

2013 AFL Grand Final - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[carlton_99]

Nah, what I put out there wasn't that outlandish...

My comment was less about your trade values and more about the salary - there is no way Carlton can bring two players in like that without multiple A-graders leaving

 

[KingCharles]

So what you're saying is we're gonna be the most top heavy team to ever exist and win the next 3 flags while carrying some of the worst players to ever see an AFL football field due to cap constraints??

The boss said whatever will be, will be

 

[Stamos]

Regardless, my point stands...

I didn't say they traded Buddy, I said they lost Buddy who let's be honest was a level above what Harry is now...

Of course they didn't want to lose him. But when they did, they moved on and won another 2 flags.

It doesn’t stand though, because it was a completely different situation.

If we win it this year, and H asks to go, then it would me somewhat analogous. Although Hawthorn wouldn’t have let Buddy go if the had him signed up till 2019.

 

[carlton_99]

So what you're saying is we're gonna be the most top heavy team to ever exist and win the next 3 flags while carrying some of the worst players to ever see an AFL football field due to cap constraints??

Rob Monahan playing 26 games next season and in the leadership group

 

[Blue_Fusion]

It doesn’t stand though, because it was a completely different situation.

If we win it this year, and H asks to go, then it would me somewhat analogous. Although Hawthorn wouldn’t have let Buddy go if the had him signed up till 2019.

Situation was different, but the fact they no longer had two dominant key forwards yet still won 2 consecutive flags remains...

Sure like you said they had Gunston, atg small forwards etc. But they also had an incredible midfield...

We're so far off that... like I said earlier, Cerra can't get on the park, Walsh is playing hurt, Hewett and Kennedy are solid contributors... Cerra is the only one of those four who has decent i50 delivery. There's still way too much reliance on Crippa and the bloke can only carry these guys so far by himself...

 

[Blue_Fusion]

My comment was less about your trade values and more about the salary - there is no way Carlton can bring two players in like that without multiple A-graders leaving

Well Harry is one of those...

I'm pretty sure off loading Marchbank, Cunners and Martin will free up some space too.

It's one of those things that we will work out if and when we need to.

 

[WalshYouLegend]

Weren’t Melbourne interested in Lynch? Pretty sure I read that today.

Could very easily do a deal with them, and Richmond are a big club.

Yeah but why would the Trac want to go to the Yellow and Black when they are flat on the bottom of the tarmac?

 

[WalshYouLegend]

Personally I think we do a bundle deal for the Trac:

IN: Trac
OUT: Martin, Marchbank, Williams, with Russell.

 

[Jimmae]

Situation was different, but the fact they no longer had two dominant key forwards yet still won 2 consecutive flags remains...

Yeah, they had elite rebound off HB, elite wingers, elite HFs, and elite midfield, and a 2 ruck system that could manage basic forward craft. In a different era, where frankly consistency of professional standards were still a long way behind what they are today.

It's a different era, and we've got maybe 50% of what they had. We don't lack for density of talent in the midfield unit, we lack for diversity of talent. Petracca helps, but we could probably manage it via the draft too, then use some list capital to address other needs.

 

[GT619]

As of 10 hours ago there were no changes and Trac supposedly demanded a trade to another Melbourne club.

it won't go away though for 6 more weeks

 

[Jimmae]

It's a 6-10 month recovery and he's golden.

So he's having a incredibly scaled back pre-season?

TODN’s right

It was heart rate by the way, and that’s normal for someone at his point of recovery

I read through some studies thanks to Wickzki - he may be able to elaborate better than I can on this

So he's being managed in training for months, and he's probably not been able to do anything for fitness and body mass except walk and (hopefully) scale back food intake until recently?

He'll be coming from a long way back, even assuming he's getting ticked off for resuming high intensity work and heavy weights in the next few weeks.

I don't doubt his professionalism because he already took himself to being a full-time midfielder years ago, but he had to go to virtually a dead stop.

which is commit to TDK as a 75/25% forward, and continue to play Pitto.

If that's the plan I'm not really here for it, bare minimum because I don't want Pitto as our starting ruck. O'Keeffe or Mirkov in the mix for such a plan would be more interesting, but has a lot of question marks going into 2025.

TDK would have to change his body shape a little to make it work too, he's too heavy to play CHF right now, though he's clearly been working on his cardio.

But let me be clear: I think McKay is genuinely worth more in a trade than Petracca given their respective ages and game styles, especially considering the latter's contract value.

 

[charred_fate]

he kicked 4 against us, so 9 goals in 12 games....

Happy to apply the same rationale to Charlie? Take out the Eagles game, he ain’t top 3 in the Coleman last year.

 

[Wickzki]

Yep and a future fourth for Bontempelli and a 2023 3rd rounder

We have a highly trusted source on the Bont to Carlton trade front. Somebody should ask them.

 

[Wickzki]

Can I say I am bemused by the massive elephant in the room.

I understand the other reasons for Trac wanting out of Melbourne but it's pretty well stated that the numero uno reason has been their mishandling of his injury.

If this is true....

Then why the absolute hell would he want to come to Carlton who have been mismanaging and mishandling players health matters for the better part of twenty years.

Other than Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

27

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

and his knee (and there's enough chapters in that to write a book) who was the last player that we've had with significant health issues that has come all of the day back without suffering reinjury?

You can write a whole other book on players who have had one major injury and subsequently become injury prone - players who's careers have been destroyed by reinjury. Of course not all of it can be placed on the club but we've got a whole lot more than our fair share that there's a pattern.

And because there's a pattern there I feel like the club buying into Petracca is buying into a bill of goods that may never be possible to fill.

Someone compared getting Petracca to when we signed Chris Judd. Other than both being big names and both having had serious injuries before acquisition (Judd and his famous shoulders) there's a massive difference. Judd was in the prime of his athletic career and unless disaster struck had years ahead of him.

Petracca is a half decade older in an era where the level of professionalism has skyrocketed. Even if Petracca gets back to thr peak of what will be his new athletic health (and from what I've heard is that he has been cleared for cardio since my first comments on the rehabilitation which is huge as it's a massive gateway marker) the end comes a lot more quickly these days than what it used to.

The high likelihood is that the Petracca we would get in 2025 is likely to be the peak of his physical performance. Even if he sustains for longer than most you're not going to get the same level of player every year. It doesn't work like that.

If Melbourne does sell Petracca it will extract the absolute highest value for him. He is the centrepiece of their entire list. He's got a squeaky clean image on and off the field, has no mental health or drug issues, no major character flaws or issues (that we know of) and is their most marketable player with years left in his career (who knows how long Gawn has left, he's given them his soul).

I'm just not sold on the dream with Petracca when it comes down to including one of our cornerstones who has given the club it's loyalty. I have no doubt that Petracca would give this football club the absolute best he can but I'm not sold that our football club can say and do the same in return when history paints a very clear picture that we don't manage significant injuries well.

And that is why I'm dead set against including a McKay (injury prone himself) level talent back and would only accept a non-Cripps and Walsh midfielder with Cerrs (and those hamstrings) being the preferred trade.

When it comes down to it it's more of an us, it's not a him issue.

 

[macky99]

For score involvements (goals + assists) Petracca is at least on par with McKay (and arguably better), while also offering far more in terms of meters gained, and around the ground.

Cripps getting the ball to Petracca and him getting the ball inside 50 to Curnow (or simply scoring himself)? Yes please.

It's not like his Norm Smith performance was an outlier, or his 5-goal game against us this year came out of the blue. Have people forgotten that?

He's a top 10 player in the AFL.



https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/39425665/afl-top-50-best-afl-players-season-2024

lt is not about the stats, we all know he is a star player, but it is about the fact he is almost 29 and the cost to get him and our inability to address other needs as a result of this decision.
Also more importantly the negative impact from the playing group by letting go a quality player Mckay, we have no one to replace him.

We already have enough tier 1 players, we need to keep building below them, this will be Judd all over again, thinking one player changes everything.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Key forwards seldom kick bags in the finals, especially grand finals, even if a club knows how to use them properly.

They still occupy good key defenders though, and create space for the lively small forwards around them (of which we don’t have any at the minute, and which Petracca doesn’t fix)

 

[myblueroan]

I don’t mean the petracca side of it.
I mean the link to McKay.

Apologies. Didn't see that.

 

[tarczonandjane]

Petracca is also appealing because he fits our system.

Harry is less effective because our system doesn’t maximise the talents of either he or Charlie.

The common refrain on here for a fair while has been that we need to change our system. I’m confident that if Petracca arrives, he leads the coaching staff to double down on our current system. More power and crash and bash, because that’s what he brings.

Better to keep Harry and make him more effective by fixing the system.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Yeah, they had elite rebound off HB, elite wingers, elite HFs, and elite midfield, and a 2 ruck system that could manage basic forward craft. In a different era, where frankly consistency of professional standards were still a long way behind what they are today.

It's a different era, and we've got maybe 50% of what they had. We don't lack for density of talent in the midfield unit, we lack for diversity of talent. Petracca helps, but we could probably manage it via the draft too, then use some list capital to address other needs.

Ok, let's peel back from the Hawks since it was a different era...

Who were the dominant key forwards in the 2023 premiership team?

Who were they in 2021?

Who are they for the Swans this year? Or Port?

We're not going to draft a mid (especially with pick 11) who will have anywhere near the immediate impact Trac will have...

As I've been saying, we still have a dangerous reliance on Cripps... and we're very lucky he's had a great season... next year he's gonna hit 30 and yes I'm well aware Trac is around the same age as him.

 

[frustrated_bagger]

lt is not about the stats, we all know he is a star player, but it is about the fact he is almost 29 and the cost to get him and our inability to address other needs as a result of this decision.
Also more importantly the negative impact from the playing group by letting go a quality player Mckay, we have no one to replace him.

We already have enough tier 1 players, we need to keep building below them, this will be Judd all over again, thinking one player changes everything.

But that’s just it .. we lost 4 games this year by a goal or less (not to mention the other games we weren’t that far behind either) .. we win those we sit 2nd with a home prelim looming as a possibility. We weren’t that close when we went and got Judd. A player like Trac could be just the tipping point we need. PLUS we scraped into finals with an injury list the size of the Great Wall of China .. give some support to Weitering down back with another defender, unclutter our forward line and bring in a battering RAM capable of elite F50 delivery and we just might be kissing number 17 ..


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[HarryFlashman]

Trac is a game winning super star, he still wouldn’t fix what’s wrong with us and would set us back massively.
Personally I think it’s time for us to be bold & get a trade massively right or disastrously wrong - if u can turn Harry/Charlie into 2 very good players (young quick mid/forward & a key back) I think the sum total of 2 very good players outweighs 1 key forward.
If having 2 gun tall forwards was going to work for us - we would have seen it already.
Yes they have beat up on crap teams but it’s not like they are an unstoppable force most weeks - on paper they should be, but the reality is it hasn’t worked that way.

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Do you think we'd struggle to fit him in?

He'd play ahead of Kennedy and/or Hewett. Incidentally Hewett turns 29 before Petracca does.

It would make more sense to move these 2 along to make room for Trac than anyone else.
But Voss loves his bulls.(which is 70% of our team profile problems)