Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[charred_fate]

I’m all for trading up for pick 3 but won’t be disappointed with 12/14. SOS (and/or the Club) screwed a few top 10 picks but reality is that we are far more likely to pick a genuine star the closer to pick 1 we are.

Also seems to be becoming more likely that they’ll make a valuable contribution from their first season, which should be made easier in a strong team, and which is still heading in the right direction for my greatest desire (all-in to get Cripps a flag).

It’s a smart play bc it allows us to add quality where we still desperately need it (midfields win flags and ours is short of the mark (/we don’t need another top grade KPP - a B-Grade KPD will suffice)) and it will take only a small part of our salary cap, helping with the TDK extension etc. By the time an extension is needed, Williams’ contract will be done.

I also wouldn’t be disappointed with Houston though!

In any case, despite the talk of the balanced nature of the draft, I think we’ll see a breakaway couple of groups at the top end by draft day.

As for FOS, has a bit of Daisy Thomas and Heeney about him I reckon but there are a bunch of great looking options.

 

[Revenant1965]

I'm conflicted on the whole Picks 12 + 14 to pick 3 trade. If we had 3 and someone had 12 + 14, I'd be hesitant. At same time, I understand that WC approached us, so I guess there is something of the 'seller' us getting something.
But on top of this, I'd love it if we could still somehow get another reasonable pick before Ben Camporeale bid, without further downgrading any future picks (thinking of Ison, Gresham, Walker, etc). Don't know how that could be done.
Having said that, I can see the hype for Draper. If we somehow could...

 

[Accidental genius]

Nah, the stats say that a number 3 draft pick will play at least 9 games in their first season. There are a couple who look like they could play immediately. Don't forget that Ollie got a lot of games and he was a skinny Pick 11.

Yeah ok interesting stat ….but unless they are the dusty/reid types they aren’t going to make a real impact while our flag window is open? Are they?

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Yeah ok interesting stat ….but unless they are the dusty/reid types they aren’t going to make a real impact while our flag window is open? Are they?

They might help keep the window open longer

 

[KnobHead]

People seem to rate Draper more. It's funny thay we'd go for the injury prone kid over the other dont you think? Ironic!

Anyway...do we rate Yazz? Do we know them? Is Yazz actually that other poster who posted tomes for a few days then disappeared?
Or are they known?

Different poster.

Looking at Yazz’s posts he has rarely posted over many years, but his previous posts have been on the money.

Quality over quantity


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[V_23]

Selwood was a risk, had some injury concerns…

Gibbs was ruined early by being played off half back, when he arrived as a goal kicking mid…

Clarkson played Sheezel and McKercher off half back when they started. Pretty common strategy to get new draftees acclimatised to AFL footy.

 

[TerryWallet]

Selwood was a risk, had some injury concerns…

Gibbs was ruined early by being played off half back, when he arrived as a goal kicking mid…

Being lumped into a leadership group of Lance, Stephens and Fev as an immature, pimply faced 19yo kid didn't help lol.

Kid was doomed from the start.

 

[tarczonandjane]

After just watching highlight videos of both Lalor and Draper, at 3 it has be to Draper. Lalor didn't stand out in any real way. Medium mid/fwd with no real stand out qualities. Looks ok against kids his age, don't think it would translate to AFL.

Draper has a good frame, burst of pace, and would have a relationship with Campos. Think he's Round 1 material.

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Hold on. No real stand out qualities? I mean… I get preferring Draper over Lalor. Beauty is, after all, in the eye of the beholder.

But you are saying that a kid most AFL talent spotters have in the top 5-7 players in the draft has no real stand out qualities?

And you rate Draper’s pace, but see no pace in Lalor?

If he has no real stand out qualities, should he even be drafted?

 

[tarczonandjane]

I'm conflicted on the whole Picks 12 + 14 to pick 3 trade. If we had 3 and someone had 12 + 14, I'd be hesitant. At same time, I understand that WC approached us, so I guess there is something of the 'seller' us getting something.
But on top of this, I'd love it if we could still somehow get another reasonable pick before Ben Camporeale bid, without further downgrading any future picks (thinking of Ison, Gresham, Walker, etc). Don't know how that could be done.
Having said that, I can see the hype for Draper. If we somehow could...

I see where you are coming from Revenant. I am mindful of Austin’s talk of bringing in pace and a KPD. In my mind, the best way to achieve that would have been to keep 12 or 14 and downgrade pick split the other one for selections in the 20s and 30s. That would have been two pacy players plus a KPD.

I am hoping that Austin still has a plan for a KPD through the draft… even if it is a more speculative selection in the 30s or 40s. I guess we will have to see what comes back to us from the Eagles through picks 12 and 14. Maybe we somehow bundle up a player with a late pick to get at least a second shot at the draft prior to the Campos.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I'm coming around to getting 1 top pick for 12 and 14. It has to be 2 or 3 though as it would need to be good enough to get one of the top tier mids. Draper, Lalor, FOS or Smith.

Ben Camporeale is a pretty safe pick and opens up another list spot too. There'll be some good players getting cut this year so can grab one or keep owies.

 

[ferrisb]

If you want a good example:

We took Gibbs over Joel Selwood and look at what he achieved let alone be captain of his premiership teams.

Thanks for that Sticks...

Revisionist cherry picking at its finest.

Gibbs played SANFL (seniors) at 16yo and came 3rd in Glenelg's B&F as a 17yo.

He was one of the surest #1 picks I can remember.

Of course in hindsight we'd pick Selwood. But don't forget Selwood was passed on by five other clubs as well as us.

There's dumb recruiting decisions and then there's 'this kid picked later turned out better'. This is definitely the latter.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

Just to join the dots for people worried about losing Moir.

The word is that West Coast approached us about pick #3. They need 12 and 14 so they can get Baker and keep a first round draft pick. It seems pretty clear we will need to get something back (not give something up) in order to run with that deal.

Note that afl.com is also suggesting North might approach us dangling pick #2 for #12 and #14.

It’s not us approaching these other teams. They are coming to us. Moir is not heading out the door.

If North do join in, a bidding war for 12 and 14 is great news for us.
We could get an offer to good to refuse.

 

[passmark]

Clarkson played Sheezel and McKercher off half back when they started. Pretty common strategy to get new draftees acclimatised to AFL footy.

Yep.

Just gotta hope they progress and don’t get stuck there unless they become exceptional at that position.

Unlike Andrew McGrath, who went to half back to get experience and just ended up being bog average and staying coz he can’t go anywhere else.

 

[Earls Smother]

We are in a special elite tiny club with our thoughts this year Flag.
I see you.

I think there were quite a few more in that club initially, including me. There is nothing wrong with you wanting to stay in that camp.

The special players win games for you, and they will be playing from very early on. Pies would not have won the flag and would be a significantly poorer team without Nick Daicos (I know he was FS, but still a game-changing talent).

Ashcroft has just won a Norm Smith in his second year, with a knee reco along the way. By all accounts we were very keen to get Sheezel in 2022, but had nothing to trade our way up high enough. We would have won more games with him in our side this year.

You wouldn't do it in certain years, but if we reckon we are guaranteed a game-changer with any of the top 3, then I've swung in favour of that.

 

[marcmurphy3]

If North do join in, a bidding war for 12 and 14 is great news for us.
We could get an offer to good to refuse.

There was word a few months back that North was open to split their pick 2.

I was surprised at the time as picking splitting is normally more suitable to clubs early in the rebuild or with a trade target.

 

[BlueTongue]

Thanks for the info EP.

Personally I'm hoping for the options in reverse order.

Yep.same here.

 

[Michael Jezz]

If west coast want 12 & 14.
It will be 3 & a future 2nd. It could be current 26 but that could be swallowed by Campo bid. Eagles need the deal we don't, so we should extract value

 

[Red Bull]

I'm coming around to getting 1 top pick for 12 and 14. It has to be 2 or 3 though as it would need to be good enough to get one of the top tier mids. Draper, Lalor, FOS or Smith.

Ben Camporeale is a pretty safe pick and opens up another list spot too. There'll be some good players getting cut this year so can grab one or keep owies.

Contending teams rarely get access to the absolute elite talent.
To have the opportunity of adding pick 3 and Walker in the next few years is incredible.
And we add them both on minimum wage opening up space to attract any FA we might have lined up.
Austin doing the business

 

[marcmurphy3]

The issue with Gibbs wasn't being played off halfback his first few years. It was after he had that breakout 3rd year as a pure onballer we put him back again, giving him defensive jobs. It seemed his versatility worked against him as he got pushed down the pecking order for those that could only play mid.

That said, Gibbs lacked the competitiveness of the absolute champions. All class but not so much grit. Also, played in some awful teams. If he got drafted to Geelong I'm sure he wins at least 1-2 all australian jumpers.

 

[ferrisb]

Unlike Andrew McGrath, who went to half back to get experience and just ended up being bog average and staying coz he can’t go anywhere else.

McGrath was a HBF at junior level.

He's a (very) good player, but it was a pretty uninspiring #1 choice IMO.

 

[Blue Pulse]

My 2c re Houston and seriously it is worth only that.

Will he make us better, no doubt! Is he the missing piece to winning a flag?

My 2c, how many "stars" do we need on big money? Cripps, Weiters, Harry, Charlie, TDK, do we need Houston as well on big money? We add Houston, these guys alone would be eating a 1/3 of our cap space based on $15million? Yes we would love Houston, but SDK or May would suit our structure better. We can't have all the stars and I know Vossy is pushing for him but we go back to relying on talent to win games for us on it's own. Structure, fitness and gameplan will see us improve.

Hopefully Inness can keep the majority of our list on the field for longer, a few tweaks to the game plan and I feel we would become the team we are meant to be.

 

[TerryWallet]

Revisionist cherry picking at its finest.

Gibbs played SANFL (seniors) at 16yo and came 3rd in Glenelg's B&F as a 17yo.

He was one of the surest #1 picks I can remember.

Of course in hindsight we'd pick Selwood. But don't forget Selwood was passed on by five other clubs as well as us.

There's dumb recruiting decisions and then there's 'this kid picked later turned out better'. This is definitely the latter.

Yep. Also Selwood got to go directly into the midfield of a Premiership contender and his career flourished. Gibbs came into a dumpster fire with zero leadership.

The opportunity that Selwood was afforded would be offered to a gun young mid that we draft now. Into the midfield of a Premiership contender with great leadership. It's a great opportunity to create a great player.

 

[Accidental genius]

They might help keep the window open longer

IF we can pick a generational player….thats really what it comes down to. What are the chances of that happening?

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Draper/FOS

Or

Berry and Hotton/Trainor

Which will have the greater positive impact on our list?

 

[marcmurphy3]

Contending teams rarely get access to the absolute elite talent.
To have the opportunity of adding pick 3 and Walker in the next few years is incredible.
And we add them both on minimum wage opening up space to attract any FA we might have lined up.
Austin doing the business

It's really that top tier talent you can't replace without premium picks in the draft. Solid players you can pick anywhere.

Getting some while you're going well goes along way to keeping you there.