Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft? - Part 2

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

“Playing the kids” doesn’t work for them all. Look at the amount of games we pumped into some of our kids early and it has done absolutely zero for them. Make sure you develop the right ones in the right way. Playing an extra 3 kids who might have a 20% chance of ever making the level probably has a worse impact on the better kids who you are also trying to develop.

anyway looks like a long rebuild is ahead so like all teams will need abit of luck making sure they nail their draft picks.

 

[JamesCroft89]

I totally agree on Tim, i was disappointed he got picked.


I just hate the 'play the kids' logic when those same kids will just be smashed by the same fans when they have not shown anything in 2 weeks.

Our midfield will definitely not protect us from being smashed some weeks though, they have struggled big time to stall the momentum of oppo teams over the last 18 months. Easily the most disappointing group for us in that time.

The problem with your club was never about the "play the kids" mentality, it was Clarko completely failing to understand where Hawthorn were at in years 2016-2018, and he proceeded to botch the list.

You might not like rebuilds, but just about all the success in the last 20 years has started with a solid foundation of youth, including your three-peat team. 2016 was the time for your club to build that solid foundation again, just like you did in 2021, but Clarko thought he was a genius, took the same pills Vossy was on in 2009, and Hawthorn's list now has serious problems.

 

[Iceman!]

The problem with your club was never about the "play the kids" mentality, it was Clarko completely failing to understand where Hawthorn were at in years 2016-2018, and he proceeded to botch the list.

You might not like rebuilds, but just about all the success in the last 20 years has started with a solid foundation of youth, including your three-peat team. 2016 was the time for your club to build that solid foundation again, just like you did in 2021, but Clarko thought he was a genius, took the same pills Vossy was on in 2009, and Hawthorn's list now has serious problems.

How many clubs has attempted to avoid building through the draft? From what ever list you can make now look at the ones that have attempted it since free agency and increased player movement came in.

He tried snagging another flag or two without bottoming out, it didn’t work. I can live with that.

We have gone to the draft the past 2 years and will continue to do so

 

[JamesCroft89]

How many clubs has attempted to avoid building through the draft? From what ever list you can make now look at the ones that have attempted it since free agency and increased player movement came in.

Don't understand what point you're trying to make here.
Geelong have been neglecting the draft for a long time now, and the end result? A good, consistent team that finishes top 4 most years, but always collapses at some point in the finals.
Even the Bulldogs, who haven't been anywhere near as consistent for the last few years, were still good enough to win a flag on the back of strong drafting.

Richmond's three flags were built on a foundation of Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin, Rance. What's Hawthorn's equivalent of that in the current year? A 28 year old Tom Mitchell? He's not even half the player Dustin Martin is.

Nobody is saying traditional rebuilds are always the answer, but looking at where Hawthorn's list was in 2016, it very clearly was the right answer, but Clarko was arrogant and thought he could re-open the window as soon as it shut.

We have gone to the draft the past 2 years and will continue to do so

Except what happens in 3-4 years down the line? Had you initiated a proper rebuild in 2016, that would be the time you'd expect to be contending. Instead, it will be the time you start to see players like Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara and Chad Wingard retiring, a massive hole of talent in your mid-aged players.

 

[Luv_our_club]

“Playing the kids” doesn’t work for them all. Look at the amount of games we pumped into some of our kids early and it has done absolutely zero for them. Make sure you develop the right ones in the right way. Playing an extra 3 kids who might have a 20% chance of ever making the level probably has a worse impact on the better kids who you are also trying to develop.

anyway looks like a long rebuild is ahead so like all teams will need abit of luck making sure they nail their draft picks.

I agree with it all.

Especially the "Lucky at the draft" bit.

Some clubs have had terrible luck, like Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Richmond - over the years.

Lucky at the draft with top 10 picks is what makes the difference - and F/S luck too.......unless you are one of the clubs advantaged by the AFL rules that will always bounce back.

 

[Iceman!]

Don't understand what point you're trying to make here.
Geelong have been neglecting the draft for a long time now, and the end result? A good, consistent team that finishes top 4 most years, but always collapses at some point in the finals.
Even the Bulldogs, who haven't been anywhere near as consistent for the last few years, were still good enough to win a flag on the back of strong drafting.

Richmond's three flags were built on a foundation of Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin, Rance. What's Hawthorn's equivalent of that in the current year? A 28 year old Tom Mitchell? He's not even half the player Dustin Martin is.

Nobody is saying traditional rebuilds are always the answer, but looking at where Hawthorn's list was in 2016, it very clearly was the right answer, but Clarko was arrogant and thought he could re-open the window as soon as it shut.


Except what happens in 3-4 years down the line? Had you initiated a proper rebuild in 2016, that would be the time you'd expect to be contending. Instead, it will be the time you start to see players like Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O'Meara and Chad Wingard retiring, a massive hole of talent in your mid-aged players.

Geelong were half a game away from a premiership lmfao, if anything they are proof it is possible if you can get it right.

The pot shots at Clarko that you continue to go to are fascinating, we as a club decided to attempt to build on the run. Yes it failed and we are starting again, shit happens.

After coming off a decade near the top I have no problem with the club taking the gamble, it seems like you want this to hurt us/the club.

All that matters to me now is that we identify that we need to start again, which we clearly have.

 

[WWSD]

Picks 2, 21 and 24.

I’m feeling Horney

 

[JamesCroft89]

I agree with it all.

Especially the "Lucky at the draft" bit.

Some clubs have had terrible luck, like Carlton, St Kilda, Melbourne, Richmond - over the years.

Lucky at the draft with top 10 picks is what makes the difference - and F/S luck too.......unless you are one of the clubs advantaged by the AFL rules that will always bounce back.

What makes you think success in the draft comes down to luck? Talent recruitment is a skill.

 

[Luv_our_club]

What makes you think success in the draft comes down to luck? Talent recruitment is a skill.

In the top 10 there is more often consensus. (did you get that bit?)

 

[JamesCroft89]

Geelong were half a game away from a premiership lmfao, if anything they are proof it is possible if you can get it right.

Nah, winning the minor premiership or making the Grand Final means nothing if you don't win it. Absolutely nothing. Last year also had shortened quarters, which was great for their old guys.
Collingwood were one kick away from winning the Grand Final in 2018, does that mean Collingwood should stand by their man Buckley all the way?

Geelong looked set for a stint at the bottom after their 2015, but got an injection of quality with Dangerfield, and further topped up with Henderson, Tuohy and Stanley to complement him.

The pot shots at Clarko that you continue to go to are fascinating, we as a club decided to attempt to build on the run. Yes it failed and we are starting again, sh*t happens.

My point is your list is in a very concerning state going forward, and it all comes back to the 2016-2018 off-seasons.
There is no doubt in my mind the strategy back then was initiated by Clarko, because he went to the US, received a primer about American Sports trading and free agency, and wanted to try it in the AFL. That, and he was attending Sydney finals matches in public to "scout" Tom Mitchell, even while his own team was playing finals.

Sure, you're drafting young talent now, but that doesn't mean Clarko is immune from scrutiny for his bad mistakes 4-5 years ago, just like Voss wasn't immune for his mistakes in 2009.

 

[JamesCroft89]

In the top 10 there is more often consensus. (did you get that bit?)

So? What does that have to do with luck?

Were Richmond unlucky that they selected Tambling ahead of Buddy? No, they were just stupid and incompetent.

 

[Iceman!]

Nah, winning the minor premiership or making the Grand Final means nothing if you don't win it. Absolutely nothing. Last year also had shortened quarters, which was great for their old guys.
Collingwood were one kick away from winning the Grand Final in 2018, does that mean Collingwood should stand by their man Buckley all the way?

Geelong looked set for a stint at the bottom after their 2015, but got an injection of quality with Dangerfield, and further topped up with Henderson, Tuohy and Stanley to complement him.


My point is your list is in a very bad state going forward, and it all comes back to the 2016-2018 off-seasons.
There is no doubt in my mind the strategy back then was initiated by Clarko, because he went to the US, received a primer about American Sports trading and free agency, and wanted to try it in the AFL. That, and he was attending Sydney matches in public to "scout" Tom Mitchell.

Sure, you're drafting talent now, but that doesn't mean Clarko is immune from scrutiny for his bad mistakes 4-5 years ago, just like Voss wasn't immune for his mistakes in 2009.

You are right that a flag is all that matters, where I disagree is that a list build didn’t work without getting one.

I think building a list is all about getting yourself to be top 4 for a period of tgiving yourself a shot to win one. Most clubs will fall short of the ultimate success.

Geelong gave themselves a very good chance and I think the list management team at Geelong would stand by the list build they did post 2015.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

Nah, winning the minor premiership or making the Grand Final means nothing if you don't win it. Absolutely nothing. Last year also had shortened quarters, which was great for their old guys.
Collingwood were one kick away from winning the Grand Final in 2018, does that mean Collingwood should stand by their man Buckley all the way?

Geelong looked set for a stint at the bottom after their 2015, but got an injection of quality with Dangerfield, and further topped up with Henderson, Tuohy and Stanley to complement him.


My point is your list is in a very concerning state going forward, and it all comes back to the 2016-2018 off-seasons.
There is no doubt in my mind the strategy back then was initiated by Clarko, because he went to the US, received a primer about American Sports trading and free agency, and wanted to try it in the AFL. That, and he was attending Sydney finals matches in public to "scout" Tom Mitchell, even while his own team was playing finals.

Sure, you're drafting young talent now, but that doesn't mean Clarko is immune from scrutiny for his bad mistakes 4-5 years ago, just like Voss wasn't immune for his mistakes in 2009.

Key difference being Voss won fk all and Clarkson is a 4 time premier.

The guy with all the premierships is entitled to a lot more latitude.

 

[Blue1980]

They have been competitive and have some decent young guys, effort can’t be questioned.

Thing is, if you keep losing eventually heads will drop, I know this well from our crappy sides over the years.

They just need to keep adding in more top end talent, develop what they have as well as they can with the solid leaders which they have still. That looks to be the plan, but I don’t think there’s any quick rise up the ladder happening, which I think club and most supporters accept.

 

[Pessimistic]

Nah, winning the minor premiership or making the Grand Final means nothing if you don't win it. Absolutely nothing. Last year also had shortened quarters, which was great for their old guys.
Collingwood were one kick away from winning the Grand Final in 2018, does that mean Collingwood should stand by their man Buckley all the way?

Geelong looked set for a stint at the bottom after their 2015, but got an injection of quality with Dangerfield, and further topped up with Henderson, Tuohy and Stanley to complement him.


My point is your list is in a very concerning state going forward, and it all comes back to the 2016-2018 off-seasons.
There is no doubt in my mind the strategy back then was initiated by Clarko, because he went to the US, received a primer about American Sports trading and free agency, and wanted to try it in the AFL. That, and he was attending Sydney finals matches in public to "scout" Tom Mitchell, even while his own team was playing finals.

Sure, you're drafting young talent now, but that doesn't mean Clarko is immune from scrutiny for his bad mistakes 4-5 years ago, just like Voss wasn't immune for his mistakes in 2009.

‘I think there’s a key difference between Clarko and Vossy. I can’t quite put my finger on it though

 

[Roby]

Don't understand what point you're trying to make here.
Geelong have been neglecting the draft for a long time now, and the end result? A good, consistent team that finishes top 4 most years, but always collapses at some point in the finals.
Even the Bulldogs, who haven't been anywhere near as consistent for the last few years, were still good enough to win a flag on the back of strong..

Bulldogs won after been fed a whole heap of contested possessions by umpires. Drafting looks a lot better when you've paid umpires to win games. Looks like it might work for them this year too.

 

[Blue1980]

You are right that a flag is all that matters, where I disagree is that a list build didn’t work without getting one.

I think building a list is all about getting yourself to be top 4 for a period of tgiving yourself a shot to win one. Most clubs will fall short of the ultimate success.

Geelong gave themselves a very good chance and I think the list management team at Geelong would stand by the list build they did post 2015.

I agree, if you give yourself every chance to succeed then you have to consider it a success.

I mean would st Kilda considered the list they built when they were in the mix from 2004-11 a failure?

 

[Iceman!]

I agree, if you give yourself every chance to succeed then you have to consider it a success.

I mean would st Kilda considered the list they built when they were in the mix from 2004-11 a failure?

Absolutely and you could find plenty more through history.

Look at the current crop as well

Lions, Swans, Suns, Carlton, Port, Freo are all supposed to have really bright futures (although at different stages).

Chances are most of those will not even win
a flag with the core group they are building at the moment. It doesn’t mean they didn’t build a good list that gave them a chance.

 

[JamesCroft89]

I agree, if you give yourself every chance to succeed then you have to consider it a success.

I mean would st Kilda considered the list they built when they were in the mix from 2004-11 a failure?

For what it's worth, the St Kilda team from 2009-2010 is far superior to any Geelong team from 2012-onwards.

 

[Iceman!]

For what it's worth, the St Kilda team from 2009-2010 is far superior to any Geelong team from 2012-onwards.

Not the point, using the same logic used before they failed.

 

[JamesCroft89]

Not the point, using the same logic used before they failed.

I'll concede that not winning the flag doesn't mean the list build was a failure, but that St. Kilda team was a far more powerful beast than the top-up machine Geelong have been for nearly a decade.

St Kilda built that list primarily through drafting. Geelong's current team consists mostly of top-ups, good-ok draftees and the last molding fruits from their successful era (Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan).

 

[Iceman!]

I'll concede that not winning the flag doesn't mean the list build was a failure, but that St. Kilda team was a far more powerful beast than the top-up machine Geelong have been for nearly a decade.

St Kilda built that list primarily through drafting. Geelong's current team consists mostly of top-ups, good-ok draftees and the last molding fruits from their successful era (Selwood, Hawkins, Duncan).

Yes and it was almost good enough to win a flag, they have played in multiple prelim finals and a GF that they really should have gone on to win.

They built a list that gave them a 5ish year window to compete for a flag, I call that a successful list build.

 

[JamesCroft89]

Yes and it was almost good enough to win a flag, they have played in multiple prelim finals and a GF that they really should have gone on to win.

lol what? That's a glass half full way of looking at it. Richmond were clearly the better team on the day.
You're also continuing to ignore the fact that it was the covid year. They had the oldest list in the league, and there is no doubt shortened quarters helped them, particularly later in the year.

They built a list that gave them a 5ish year window to compete for a flag, I call that a successful list build.

Except they never really had a chance, because that list was never good enough.
There is more to being a serious contender than just finishing top 4 or being consistent. Geelong have been miles off Richmond since 2017.

 

[Iceman!]

lol what? That's a glass half full way of looking at it. Richmond were clearly the better team on the day.
You're also continuing to ignore the fact that it was the covid year. They had the oldest list in the league, and there is no doubt shortened quarters helped them, particularly later in the year.


Except they never really had a chance, because that list was never good enough.
There is more to being a serious contender than just finishing top 4 or being consistent. Geelong have been miles off Richmond since 2017.

No you are missing the point, they would never have been in a position to play in the GF in a ‘COVID year’ without that build.

That proves my entire point, you build a list to give yourself a chance and they did that. They came up a little short, like most clubs do.

 

[JamesCroft89]

No you are missing the point, they would never have been in a position to play in the GF in a ‘COVID year’ without that build.

That proves my entire point, you build a list to give yourself a chance and they did that. They came up a little short, like most clubs do.

No, you're the one missing the point, to a laughable extent.

There is a big difference between being a good solid top 4 H&A season team, and a genuine flag contender. It's something you clearly don't understand.

Geelong have never been a genuine contender. And no, years with stupid shortened quarters don't count in the context of actual football.