Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

[matey]

When do Hawthorn fans expect to contend with the current list?

Hopefully 2021 but it wouldn’t surprise me if we finish 4/5 on the ladder next year. If we are not contending in 2 years I reckon Clarko will walk and do something other than coaching because he will see that his master plan, current rebuild/transition of the list isn’t working and he hasn’t got anything else to prove. However he is a driven person also a purest always referencing the greats of the club/game and if he wins another one he would become GOAT as no other coach has ever won premierships across 3 different transitions/rebuilds at the same club.

So when do oppo fans expect Hawks to fall off a cliff?

 

[schmuttt]

Hopefully 2021 but it wouldn’t surprise me if we finish 4/5 on the ladder next year. If we are not contending in 2 years I reckon Clarko will walk and do something other than coaching because he will see that his master plan, current rebuild/transition of the list isn’t working and he hasn’t got anything else to prove. However he is a driven person also a purest always referencing the greats of the club/game and if he wins another one he would become GOAT as no other coach has ever won premierships across 3 different transitions/rebuilds at the same club.

So when do oppo fans expect Hawks to fall off a cliff?

As much as I’d like you to fall off a cliff I don’t think it’ll happen. Think it’s pretty fair of you to say that if you can’t be contending come September 2021 then the rebuild through trading method hasn’t worked, I’d agree with that. FWIW I don’t think you’ll be contending in that time but only results will dictate who is right here.

 

[Vindicater]

Hopefully 2021 but it wouldn’t surprise me if we finish 4/5 on the ladder next year. If we are not contending in 2 years I reckon Clarko will walk and do something other than coaching because he will see that his master plan, current rebuild/transition of the list isn’t working and he hasn’t got anything else to prove. However he is a driven person also a purest always referencing the greats of the club/game and if he wins another one he would become GOAT as no other coach has ever won premierships across 3 different transitions/rebuilds at the same club.

So when do oppo fans expect Hawks to fall off a cliff?

I think Clarko has a better claim on GOAT but Sheedy did it over three rebuilds.

80's cups, 1993 and 2000.

 

[matey]

I think Clarko has a better claim on GOAT but Sheedy did it over three rebuilds.

80's cups, 1993 and 2000.

Fair point I was going by something I heard in the media but the Bombers squad from 93 and 2000 was significantly different only having 7 players that played in both.

 

[smeltitdeltit]

Meanwhile you trade more than just a first round pick for Wingard, and while he's likely to be a good pick-up, he has maybe 4-5 years of elite footy left and is potentially injury-prone.
Instead of taking a first rounder + 3 second rounders to the 2016 draft, which would've given you the chance to bring 4 potentially very good players to build a foundation on (remember 2001?) you splurge it all on O'Meara, a guy who to this day, is not a great kick, and like Wingard, has injury concerns.

What are wingards injury concerns??

 

[smeltitdeltit]

Richmond also have the personnel. Hawthorn right now do not have a player as good as Dustin Martin, and no, Mitchell is not.

Hawthorn have also never had a full-back as good as Alex Rance in their history.

Who at the dogs is a”as good as Martin”?

 

[Marcel Proust]

What are wingards injury concerns??

fortnite

 

[cryptor]

Hawthorn have also never had a full-back as good as Alex Rance in their history.

LOL

 

[Luv_our_club]

I think Clarko has a better claim on GOAT but Sheedy did it over three rebuilds.

80's cups, 1993 and 2000.

I think Clarkson knows this and it might even motivate him a little. He wants a third rebuild.

Having said that, Sheedy had the salary cap issues on his third rebuild, in an era when at least most of the teams were following the rules.

 

[Golden Brawn]

Mew was centre half back as was Knights.

Knights was a CHB, but Mew played a lot (actually, mostly to my recollection) at FB... it's going back a while, so maybe I've got that wrong. Either way, he was a ripper.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Knights was a CHB, but Mew played a lot (actually, mostly to my recollection) at FB... it's going back a while, so maybe I've got that wrong. Either way, he was a ripper.

Mew also noteworthy for his important contribution to Australian rhyming slang.

As in

"I over indulged on the red wine and had a Chris Mew"

 

[Nugett]

Well, that's wrong.
As for injuries, well, he hasn't quite developed into the player people thought he'd be after his first two years at GC. For all anyone knows, his two knee injuries may affect him for the rest of his career, similar to Adam Cooney after 2008.


Maybe so, but soft tissue injuries are still concerning in general, and he isn't getting any younger.


Who said you couldn't get Mitchell? Last time I checked, there was no rule saying rebuilding clubs couldn't land big trades. Carlton brought in Chris Judd right after winning the spoon.

you are Contradicting yourself. You have stated that Hawthorn wasted 2016 by not using its top end draft picks. Where we had pick 14 and two second round draft picks, that would have set us up for the future. We used pick 14 on securing Tom Mitchell, which was ok as carlton had previously done it by getting Judd after winning the spoon.

So what is your opinion, Should Hawthorn have used the draft picks, or trade them draft picks in order to land big trades?

 

[Nugett]

you keep referring to the past with almost every post

if you don’t acknowledge the past, your bound to repeat it. Seeing clubs like Melbourne and Carlton among other clubs bottoming out for over a decade to secure elite draft picks, really doesn’t provide much optimism that bottoming out is the right philosophy to build towards a premiership tilt.

Where as watching Sydney and to a lesser extent Geelong and Richmond, where the clubs don‘t really bottom out. Instead they look at other clubs lists, and find players of need and best available that they can get cheaply, has appeared to be more successful.

so rebuilding on the fly rather than bottoming out, appears to be the better option, looking at the past.

presently Hawthorn looks like a 5-10 side, where there is room for improvement. We are targeting a certain age demographic, that in 2-3 years should gel together, to give ourselves a chance of winning a premiership.

So If we look into the future, in another 2-3 years time, you can truly call it a success or a bust.

 

[Nugett]

My thought is youu only go the full rebuild if its obvious you are at the bottom and will stay there a couple of years.

against all this is the matter of the threepeat lions. last in 1998 but grand finals 2001-2004. clearly they didnt need to keep hard rebuilding. Imagins if a coach had come in with that attitude?

with the 3peat lions though. They did have some help with the merging/take over of Fitzroy around that time. That also gave them the benefit from picking the cream from 2 lists.

 

[Pessimistic]

This revisit of the 2014 draft aint pretty.

Best to worst: We grade your club's 2014 draft and trade haul

Five years on, how have the draftees turned out for each club? Our reporters run the rule over all 18 teams and grade them from best to worst

www.afl.com.au

Hawks ranked 15th but hey, we were ranked 1st in the 'winning' turning in the first of two dominant grand final performances (not seen for decades before- not even the 1980s hawks)

but clubs going the 'accepted wisdom' rebuild notably st kilda Carlton, GWS faired even worse according to this article. failed at footy AND drafting for the future. Thats not how its supposed to work is it boys and girls?

 

[Pessimistic]

with the 3peat lions though. They did have some help with the merging/take over of Fitzroy around that time. That also gave them the benefit from picking the cream from 2 lists.

the merging was 1996?

 

[Nugett]

Richmond also have the personnel. Hawthorn right now do not have a player as good as Dustin Martin, and no, Mitchell is not.

Hawthorn have also never had a full-back as good as Alex Rance in their history.

Chris Langford, Kelvin Moore, Brian Lake are all better than Rance.

 

[Nugett]

the merging was 1996?

it was, I thought it was a little bit later than that. Although they still got some good players from there though, that was there in 98.

 

[Pessimistic]

What are wingards injury concerns??

In this conversation, hawks posters are truthful if a little over optimistic. As you noted with this poster, a lot of posters opposite don't mind being a little economical with the truth and implying things which aren't there. Creative posting personified

My favourite is somehow because clarkson is successful like sheedy, hes inevitably going to get drunk on his own bathwater and send us into oblivion in the same way.

There is absolutely no indication of this whatsoever. its total horseshit.

 

[Hawk Dork]

with the 3peat lions though. They did have some help with the merging/take over of Fitzroy around that time. That also gave them the benefit from picking the cream from 2 lists.

and 2 under 19s from every club and 15% Cola

 

[Golden Brawn]

"I over indulged on the red wine and had a Chris Mew"

You don't mean a Stewie Dew?

 

[Gavin Excell]

You don't mean a Stewie Dew?

The less we talk about Dew the better

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

When do Hawthorn fans expect to contend with the current list?

Im optimistic about next year.

Mitchell was the best in the comp at getting his team first use in 2018. Having him back is absolutely massive, our clearance numbers will spike. I also think our list is better than it was in 2018.

However like always, loads of luck is needed too.

 

[4THAWN]

When do Hawthorn fans expect to contend with the current list?

I would say 2021 optimistically, maybe 2022 conservatively.

Titch, Impey, Sicily, O'Meara, Hardwick, Wingard, Frost, Patton will all be in the 25-29 age bracket in 2022 and hopefully nearing or at their footballing peaks.

There will be a large group of veteran players around the 30+ age mark who'll be nearing the end of their careers but won't be that old. e.g. Gunston, Breust, Scully, Ceglar, Shiels, Mcevoy

Overall these groups probably point to 2021/2022 being the years where we have the perfect combo of veterans/prime players to push for a premiership. Although should be taken with a grain of salt, the threepeat group was aimed to reach their peak in 2012 IIRC, these plans don't always work out exactly as organised.

 

[Scotland]

I think Clarko has a better claim on GOAT but Sheedy did it over three rebuilds.

80's cups, 1993 and 2000.

Essendon's 1993 was really Hawthorn's 2008. Wasn't a lot of difference between those sides age wise, but Essendon's team had 6 players who had played 25 games or fewer compared to Hawthorn's 2.

Long, Hird, Mercuri, Misiti, Fletcher, Bewick, Wallis all played in both. Hardwick and Alessio were already around. Comparable to Hawthorn who had Lewis, Franklin*, Birchall, Mitchell, Hodge, Roughead, Rioli all play in 2008 then 2013-15. Hawks won 9-13-17-9-12 over the 5 years around the 2008 flag. Essendon went 12-13-13-11-14 around 1993 with 1993 being the shortened 20 game season with an absurdly even top 12 teams. Both teams won flags ahead of the curve then were much stronger teams a few years later.