Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Guardian Hawk]

Bear in my I think teams played 22 games through till 2022? Since 2023 it's 23 games

Yep, I did mention that and include in my analysis (hence discussing 13 wins seasons as well).

The fact remains that even had Hawthorn beaten GWS, we would still be siting 9th with 12 wins and 8 losses. That's genuinely strange.

In fact, the lowest that I can tell from a quick scan through seasons that 12 wins and 8 losses has ever put a team before is 7th - that's the lowest ever previously. Most years it puts teams right around the top 4. To be not good enough for top 8 is genuinely unprecedented.

Even that there is only 3 wins between 1st and 11th is just a really weird season. Normally 1st and 11th is 7-10 wins apart.

The good news is that even if we do miss out in 2023...2024 is wide open cos there is little difference between the top 11 teams (and we have some of the best form of any team in the comp). We'll still need to step it up again and ensure that form carries over (as we've seen with many teams it can change quickly) but it's wide open for the taking over the next couple of years if the boys are up to it.

 

[burner1]

Not so much a white flag as a recognition of our position. Every game this round went that could go against us did - every single one. Our best hope now is winning every single game, which I don’t think is impossible, and Freo losing 2 of their last 3. The Bulldogs have an easy run home and Essendon have a gift playing the Suns at Marvel next week. That or Essendon losing to both Sydney and Brisbane - which given Sydney’s recent form and Brisbane potentially resting players in round 24 I’m not confident of either.

What are you talking about? A draw or win by freo yesterday and they would have been beyond reach. That went in our favour and freo dropping two games is possibly our best path to sneaking in.

 

[HawksILove]

Game Over.
We had to beat GWS.
The ones above us have a better percentage, and some have easier run home, sad to say.

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[Ned Ryerson]

What are you talking about? A draw or win by freo yesterday and they would have been beyond reach. That went in our favour and freo dropping two games is possibly our best path to sneaking in.

That loss put Essendon above us so if we beat Carlton this week the Drug Pigs will go into the 8 once they beat the Suns.

 

[HawksILove]

That loss put Essendon above us so if we beat Carlton this week the Drug Pigs will go into the 8 once they beat the Suns.

Correct

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[Yuley95]

That loss put Essendon above us so if we beat Carlton this week the Drug Pigs will go into the 8 once they beat the Suns.

Yeah but final 2 rounds they play swans and Brisbane. They lose at least one of those if not both.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Yeah but final 2 rounds they play swans and Brisbane. They lose at least one of those if not both.

I wouldn't bank on a Swans win at the moment and they seem to keep losing when we need them not to. And if the Lions have a top 2 spot locked up I wouldn't be shocked if they rested some players in round 24, even with the finals bye.

 

[tommyk72]

People need to stop making W/L comparisons to past seasons. We've only had 23 games for one previous year. Changes the # of wins needed to make the 8, and the potential breakdown for other clubs.

 

[Ram-Man]

If we win out we give ourselves a chance. Not sure this group at the moment is capable of winning the flag and as nice as it would be to make the finals it's not the be all and end all. Full credit to the Giants yesterday had some great last quarter performances by Hogan, Daniels, Whitfield & Green/Greene .. all at the peak of their powers - we'll learn a lot from it as we did from the Port game.

 

[Rookie Error]

Yeah think a few weeks ago Hawthorn were 13th with a positive win loss ratio which has barely ever happened if not a first. Plus also recently like 11-13 teams had a percentage over 100% which was another anomaly that late into a season

Yep, I did mention that and include in my analysis (hence discussing 13 wins seasons as well).

The fact remains that even had Hawthorn beaten GWS, we would still be siting 9th with 12 wins and 8 losses. That's genuinely strange.

In fact, the lowest that I can tell from a quick scan through seasons that 12 wins and 8 losses has ever put a team before is 7th - that's the lowest ever previously. Most years it puts teams right around the top 4. To be not good enough for top 8 is genuinely unprecedented.

Even that there is only 3 wins between 1st and 11th is just a really weird season. Normally 1st and 11th is 7-10 wins apart.

The good news is that even if we do miss out in 2023...2024 is wide open cos there is little difference between the top 11 teams (and we have some of the best form of any team in the comp). We'll still need to step it up again and ensure that form carries over (as we've seen with many teams it can change quickly) but it's wide open for the taking over the next couple of years if the boys are up to it.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

People need to stop making W/L comparisons to past seasons. We've only had 23 games for one previous year. Changes the # of wins needed to make the 8, and the potential breakdown for other clubs.

That was me and I took the extra game into account. In fact, even if we gave 5th-8th an extra win every single season since the top 8 has existed (which obviously wouldn't happen), this year would still be a first.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

On another topic you have to give Hogan credit for his career revival this year.

He looks to be in absolutely top top shape and quite simply he was too strong and too good for our backs yesterday.

To do what he is doing at almost 30 gives hope that Lewis can do the same once he recovers from his injury.

 

[phlogiston]

I think 'a lot' of hope of making it is overselling it. Mathematical chance - sure. However when your path to the finals is winning every game and hoping a lot of other results go your way when they pretty much haven't for 6-8 weeks then this isn't 'a lot' of hope - it's an absolute lottery.

The counterfactual to this is that results going our way may revert to the mean over the coming three weeks.

“Past performance does not guarantee future returns” and all that…

 

[Ned Ryerson]

The counterfactual to this is that results going our way may revert to the mean over the coming three weeks.

“Past performance does not guarantee future returns” and all that…

Well that would be swell, we are more than due for some black swan events at this rate.

 

[JZedd]

I think this season will be a good reminder of what happens when you lose the first 5 games. Great development year for guys like Mackenzie, D'Ambrosio,
Meek, Ward, Dear, Watson, Ginnivan, etc.

Plus Lewis to come back from injury.
From the limited time I've seen Box Hill I think McCabe will be special. He has all the tools to succeed.

Even CJ is like a "new" recruit.

 

[Hodginator]

What’s everyone worried about? Win the next 3 and we’re golden. I didn’t even put in any crazy margins for us or swing any wild tips in

 

[phlogiston]

Well that would be swell, we are more than due for some black swan events at this rate.

C’mon Ned. After a series of unlikely results you can’t call a reversion to the mean “black swans”.

 

[Flukey!]

6 months ago we had posters selecting “no” we couldn’t make finals in 2024, now some of those very same posters are besides themselves that we may not(not talking specifically about things in here, but the Autopsy yesterday was a little unhinged).

Enjoy the ride people, this has still been an outstanding year.

100%
Don't post angry peeps.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Beat Carlton and we’re right back in this. And with the bottom two teams on the ladder to go. No other squad trying for finals has a similarly advantageous schedule. I’m backing our boys to get ‘er done. And to put a dagger in the heart of the Bluebaggers’ season.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Granted I believe our list is in a better position and we are fortunate enough to have a substantially better coach - but I worry that missing finals might have a negative impact and would see us follow the rebuilding Adelaide who built and built on ladder positions, almost made finals and then this year have gone backwards in a big way. This is why I think once it became a possibility that actually making the finals would have been fairly crucial for the younger players. Much like making the finals in 2007 was vital for the young Hawks of that era. This isn't to say all is lost if we don't make it and hopefully it is a springboard to bigger things - I just think making finals would have been a huge boost to the squad.

No mate, just no.

We might not rise in 2025, but the comparison to Adelaide is just not right at all.

We might not rise in 2025, but the comparison to Adelaide is just not right at all.

They relied heavily on Walker, Laird and Dawson leading them towards finals last year. Heavily. Go have a look at their b&f results last year. They also have almost nothing coming through the middle of the ground, elite talent wise. Especially so when Rankine is injured, but he might not ever have the body to play mid.

Our side is much more even and 80-90% of the 22 that is out there each week is yet to hit their peak years, while our midfield is laid by our youngsters.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Beat Carlton and we’re right back in this. And with the bottom two teams on the ladder to go. No other squad trying for finals has a similarly advantageous schedule. I’m backing our boys to get ‘er done. And to put a dagger in the heart of the Bluebaggers’ season.

Carlton have West Coast and St Kilda and already have a percentage advantage on us. Even if we beat them they’ve got the easier path for mine because St Kilda presently are far more deplorable than Norf.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

No mate, just no.

We might not rise in 2025, but the comparison to Adelaide is just not right at all.

We might not rise in 2025, but the comparison to Adelaide is just not right at all.

They relied heavily on Walker, Laird and Dawson leading them towards finals last year. Heavily. Go have a look at their b&f results last year. They also have almost nothing coming through the middle of the ground, elite talent wise. Especially so when Rankine is injured, but he might not ever have the body to play mid.

Our side is much more even and 80-90% of the 22 that is out there each week is yet to hit their peak years, while our midfield is laid by our youngsters.

Look I used enough words in my post to state I don’t think it will go down that way but I just hope it’s not a trajectory we follow. As I said I think we have a better list and far better coach so I’m bullish on 2025 but a plateau or slight decline will be frustrating.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Granted I believe our list is in a better position and we are fortunate enough to have a substantially better coach - but I worry that missing finals might have a negative impact and would see us follow the rebuilding Adelaide who built and built on ladder positions, almost made finals and then this year have gone backwards in a big way. This is why I think once it became a possibility that actually making the finals would have been fairly crucial for the younger players. Much like making the finals in 2007 was vital for the young Hawks of that era. This isn't to say all is lost if we don't make it and hopefully it is a springboard to bigger things - I just think making finals would have been a huge boost to the squad.

But Hawks finished 2006 strong and didn’t make finals. This year has way more in common with 2006 than 2007

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Game Over.
We had to beat GWS.
The ones above us have a better percentage, and some have easier run home, sad to say.

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Luckily percentage changes then

 

[DogDaySonny]

Facts.