Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Ned Ryerson]

Facts.

Well hopefully not facts given the article you have posted has us finishing 9th.

 

[Davo-27]

Win the next 3 or the finals dream is over, we'll see if the squad has the hunger for finals or go again in 2025, it's been a great 3 months and I appreciate the lads efforts either way, I've had a lot of fun and I'm liking the media glazing we are copping recently lol.

 

[hawkheart]

No mate, just no.

We might not rise in 2025, but the comparison to Adelaide is just not right at all.

We might not rise in 2025, but the comparison to Adelaide is just not right at all.

They relied heavily on Walker, Laird and Dawson leading them towards finals last year. Heavily. Go have a look at their b&f results last year. They also have almost nothing coming through the middle of the ground, elite talent wise. Especially so when Rankine is injured, but he might not ever have the body to play mid.

Our side is much more even and 80-90% of the 22 that is out there each week is yet to hit their peak years, while our midfield is laid by our youngsters.

You posting in a cave, SYL?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

You posting in a cave, SYL?

It was the chorus of the post. Killer bridge too.

 

[barbster]

Auto fill the ladder predictor and it has us finishing 8th on 13 wins.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Auto fill the ladder predictor and it has us finishing 8th on 13 wins.

Lets hope its methodology is better than Squiggle and Live Ladder which both have us finishing 9th.

 

[Bardo State]

Squiggle has it at 44% now to make finals.

Was about 65% last week.

It's a blow, but things are still alive. From a bit better than a coin flip to a bit worse than a coin flip. The season wasn't buried yesterday.

Giants and Blues both about 1 in 4 to miss.

Freo about 1 in 8 to miss.

Cats, Port and Dogs all about 1 in 20 to miss.

Each one is unlikely, but the more events you put together, the higher the chances that one of those unlikely things happens.

 

[barbster]

If we beat Carlton this weekend we’ll make it. If we can’t beat them, we really don’t deserve to be playing finals.

 

[peetoo]

Squiggle only just started liking the hawks

 

[QuietB]

Does Hawthorn even want to make finals?

Yesterday pretty much confirmed that the group is not ready

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Does Hawthorn even want to make finals?

Yesterday pretty much confirmed that the group is not ready

I don't think that's accurate. We lost to a top 8 side who has quality players across the park. We beat the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Brisbane in games where they came hard at us late but we pulled away/retained our lead. We are capable of winning finals games - just weren't yesterday. This is why missing out on finals this year would be infuriating - we are ready and capable to play finals footy and missing it for another 12 months would hold back development in our list. We need these kids exposed to finals footy.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

It's over. 2025 should be the focus.

 

[QuietB]

I don't think that's accurate. We lost to a top 8 side who has quality players across the park. We beat the Bulldogs, Fremantle and Brisbane in games where they came hard at us late but we pulled away/retained our lead. We are capable of winning finals games - just weren't yesterday. This is why missing out on finals this year would be infuriating - we are ready and capable to play finals footy and missing it for another 12 months would hold back development in our list. We need these kids exposed to finals footy.

I respectfully disagree. I think they are physically no there yet, and they are certainly inexperienced.

I would hate for them to sneak in and get smashed which could be on the cards. Many teams have done that.

Hawthorn need more development and a little disappointment on missing finals will not hurt them. An Essendon like smashing in finals might.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

I respectfully disagree. I think they are physically no there yet, and they are certainly inexperienced.

I would hate for them to sneak in and get smashed which could be on the cards. Many teams have done that.

Hawthorn need more development and a little disappointment on missing finals will not hurt them. An Essendon like smashing in finals might.

We won't get smashed. We just won't put teams away nor be harder for longer.

I think the smashings are past us

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I respectfully disagree. I think they are physically no there yet, and they are certainly inexperienced.

I would hate for them to sneak in and get smashed which could be on the cards. Many teams have done that.

Hawthorn need more development and a little disappointment on missing finals will not hurt them. An Essendon like smashing in finals might.

I think suggesting that we would get smashed in a final is more pessimistic than I have been the past 24 hours. I think that is a deeply unfair statement. If we made the finals I don't think there is a single side in there that in our present form would come out and 'smash' us unless we had injuries to key players.

Gunston, Breust and Ginnivan all have premiership experience. Day, Watson and Watson are made for finals footy. Sicily would absolutely kill it as a finals captain. A frustrating loss like against Port or GWS might be on the cards - but no way known I predict this team getting smashed if they made finals.

 

[Faraway Hawk]

Does Hawthorn even want to make finals?

Yesterday pretty much confirmed that the group is not ready

Bloody oath we do!

 

[theiaofseed]

I respectfully disagree. I think they are physically no there yet, and they are certainly inexperienced.

I would hate for them to sneak in and get smashed which could be on the cards. Many teams have done that.

Hawthorn need more development and a little disappointment on missing finals will not hurt them. An Essendon like smashing in finals might.

We played GWS a top 4 side on their home deck after the second consecutive weeks of traveling, lead all day and it took a monster performance form the inform KPF on the competition to beat us by 2 points.

How are we not ready for finals?

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I reckon we're in fellas.

 

[moginie]

The "we're not ready for finals" just harks back to 2007, where we were absolutely carted by Sydney in the last round.

And the rest is history.

 

[MistyAvalon]

no not after yesterday and with ess winnng

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

this is objectively the most likely outcome from here

 

[seysearles]

Our best chance is for Freo and Carlton to drop games.

So as it stands we have to support everyone that plays them from here in (including Geelong unfortunately)

Providing we win out last 3, these are the results that will get us into 8th in order of most likely...

FREO (Need to lose 2/3, % not a factor)
Round 22 Cats Optus Stadium (Home)
Round 23 Giants ENGIE Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Power Optus Stadium (Home)

CARLTON (Need to lose 1/3 + makeup 8% or 2/3)
Round 22 Hawks MCG (Away)
Round 23 Eagles Optus Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Saints Marvel Stadium (Home)

GWS (Need to lose 2/3 + makeup 9% or 3/3)
Round 22 Lions Gabba (Away)
Round 23 Dockers ENGIE Stadium (Home)
Round 24 Bulldogs Mars Stadium Ballarat (Away)

Bulldogs (Need to lose 1/3 +makeup 18% or 2/3)
Round 22 Crows Adelaide Oval (Away)
Round 23 Kangaroos Marvel Stadium (Home)
Round 24 Giants Mars Stadium (Home)

Geelong (Need to lose 2/3 + makeup 4% or 3/3)
Round 22 Dockers Optus Stadium (Away)
Round 23 Saints Marvel Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Eagles GMHBA Stadium (Home)

 

[tommyk72]

I reckon we're in fellas.

Is that you Delicate Des?

 

[Ned Ryerson]

So as it stands we have to support everyone that plays them from here in (including Geelong unfortunately)

Hell I’ll buy a 3 game Geelong membership if it helps us make finals.

Great summary by the way - many thanks.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It's over. 2025 should be the focus.

Imagine if the players turned their toes up as quickly as some “supporters” do.