Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[Strapping Young Lad]

I respectfully disagree. I think they are physically no there yet, and they are certainly inexperienced.

I would hate for them to sneak in and get smashed which could be on the cards. Many teams have done that.

Hawthorn need more development and a little disappointment on missing finals will not hurt them. An Essendon like smashing in finals might.

This “softly softly, let’s not try too hard for fear we might fail” is pure loser talk.

Thankfully the club, coaches and players have a bit more drive than that.

 

[daniel23]

Gws won't win any of their last 3

 

[QuietB]

This “softly softly, let’s not try too hard for fear we might fail” is pure loser talk.

Thankfully the club, coaches and players have a bit more drive than that.

Maybe they would not have given away a 5 goal lead so meekly on Sunday if they were ready.

 

[The Chad and I]

We’re a good chance to win the remain g three games.

Blues form Very soft.
giants have been on a roll and we pushed them to the wire.

3 wins will give us 56 points.
Top spot right now is only 56.

I think the boys bounce back hard this week. Then two straight forward games. Put in the work and it’s ours.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Maybe they would not have given away a 5 goal lead so meekly on Sunday if they were ready.

Yeah, because no other teams in the comp give up 5 goals straight within games.

It’s a constant in AFL.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Maybe they would not have given away a 5 goal lead so meekly on Sunday if they were ready.

Ridiculous comment. Geelong made a prelim (and came close to winning it) in 2013 despite coughing up a 52 point lead to a lowly Brisbane.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Our best chance is for Freo and Carlton to drop games.

So as it stands we have to support everyone that plays them from here in (including Geelong unfortunately)

Providing we win out last 3, these are the results that will get us into 8th in order of most likely...

FREO (Need to lose 2/3, % not a factor)
Round 22 Cats Optus Stadium (Home)
Round 23 Giants ENGIE Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Power Optus Stadium (Home)

CARLTON (Need to lose 1/3 + makeup 8% or 2/3)
Round 22 Hawks MCG (Away)
Round 23 Eagles Optus Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Saints Marvel Stadium (Home)

GWS (Need to lose 2/3 + makeup 9% or 3/3)
Round 22 Lions Gabba (Away)
Round 23 Dockers ENGIE Stadium (Home)
Round 24 Bulldogs Mars Stadium Ballarat (Away)

Bulldogs (Need to lose 1/3 +makeup 18% or 2/3)
Round 22 Crows Adelaide Oval (Away)
Round 23 Kangaroos Marvel Stadium (Home)
Round 24 Giants Mars Stadium (Home)

Geelong (Need to lose 2/3 + makeup 4% or 3/3)
Round 22 Dockers Optus Stadium (Away)
Round 23 Saints Marvel Stadium (Away)
Round 24 Eagles GMHBA Stadium (Home)

Awesome analysis seysearles

Looking at that to me the most important game will be the Cats against Freo this weekend.

If the Cats can do us a solid and beat Freo then they will be hard pressed to beat both the giants and power and we should be in (assuming of course we beat the Blues).

Also if Freo lose against the Cats they will be fired up to beat GWS the following week which helps us with the GWS losing all three games scenario as well (as I can’t see GWS beating the Lions at the Gabba or the Doggies in Ballarat).

As much as it pains me to say it “Go Cats!”

 

[Rookie Error]

Breaking news Dusty has retired with immediate effect so he won't be playing in next week's HAW v RICH match up

 

[smish]

Breaking news Dusty has retired with immediate effect so he won't be playing in next week's HAW v RICH match up

Could get ugly

 

[cryptor]

Breaking news Dusty has retired with immediate effect so he won't be playing in next week's HAW v RICH match up

Wouldn't have been a factor anyway. Did one great thing in his 300th and then checked out.

 

[QuietB]

Ridiculous comment. Geelong made a prelim (and came close to winning it) in 2013 despite coughing up a 52 point lead to a lowly Brisbane.

Geelong in 2013 was a three time winning premiership team - a hardened football team. That is like comparing this Hawthorn team to Hawthorn 2016.

On top of that Geelong lost 4 games in 2013, one to Brisbane in Round 13 by 5 points where they were up - it was their 2nd loss of the year. Not sure why that is relevant.

Hawthorn were playing for a spot in the finals on Sunday. They led by 5 goals at 3/4 time. And they wilted.

I am in the camp that Hawthorn will not make finals now - Sunday against GWS was the game - so it might be moot anyway. But Hawthorn are not ready IMO.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Geelong in 2013 was a three time winning premiership team - a hardened football team. That is like comparing this Hawthorn team to Hawthorn 2016.

On top of that Geelong lost 4 games in 2013, one to Brisbane in Round 13 by 5 points where they were up - it was their 2nd loss of the year. Not sure why that is relevant.

Hawthorn were playing for a spot in the finals on Sunday. They led by 5 goals at 3/4 time. And they wilted.

I am in the camp that Hawthorn will not make finals now - Sunday against GWS was the game - so it might be moot anyway. But Hawthorn are not ready IMO.

It's a damned shame that if the boys dig deep and pull together a great finish to the season, making the finals, then you'll not let yourself enjoy it.

Just go for the ride. All we do, at most, is pay a membership fee and then go along for the ride as 44 men work their guts out to be absolutely elite athletes. We've got a pretty easy gig in this whole circus, you know. So enjoy the successes and celebrate, let the downturns pass over you, and get set for the next success.

 

[peetoo]

Geelong in 2013 was a three time winning premiership team - a hardened football team. That is like comparing this Hawthorn team to Hawthorn 2016.

On top of that Geelong lost 4 games in 2013, one to Brisbane in Round 13 by 5 points where they were up - it was their 2nd loss of the year. Not sure why that is relevant.

Hawthorn were playing for a spot in the finals on Sunday. They led by 5 goals at 3/4 time. And they wilted.

I am in the camp that Hawthorn will not make finals now - Sunday against GWS was the game - so it might be moot anyway. But Hawthorn are not ready IMO.

GWS also playing for their spot….they have more to lose

Hawks haven’t lost 2 in a row for months now

 

[QuietB]

It's a damned shame that if the boys dig deep and pull together a great finish to the season, making the finals, then you'll not let yourself enjoy it.

Just go for the ride. All we do, at most, is pay a membership fee and then go along for the ride as 44 men work their guts out to be absolutely elite athletes. We've got a pretty easy gig in this whole circus, you know. So enjoy the successes and celebrate, let the downturns pass over you, and get set for the next success.

Don't get me wrong, I'm loving the ride - they have been amazing. But Sunday against GWS was the opportunity and they missed it.

 

[Nugett]

Win next week, and see how the cards play out. Last week’s result has made us more reliant on other results. Such is Life

 

[FB19]

anything’s possible this year. But god regardless hasnt it been fun compare it to last year or early this year which was so disheartening. The most important thing is we don’t drop off need momentum into finals or 2025 the rest takes care of itself.

 

[peetoo]

Win next week, and see how the cards play out. Last week’s result has made us more reliant on other results. Such is Life

Yep almost every team is reliant on other results to a degree

 

[HedgeFund]

Carlton have West Coast and St Kilda and already have a percentage advantage on us. Even if we beat them they’ve got the easier path for mine because St Kilda presently are far more deplorable than Norf.

The same St Kilda that beat Essendon 108 - 55 two weeks ago?

Yep that St Kilda.

This whole season has been the least predictable I can ever remember.

If we are able to win our last 3, then a 1-2 run home from any 2 of the 7 teams above us should see us through unless our wins are narrow and those losses are narrow.

 

[Khmerhawk]

Gws won't win any of their last 3

Hope you're right but I cant see Fremantle beating them in Sydney.

 

[SammyC]

There are multiple ways we can squeeze in - teams like st kilda and adelaide are dangerous and can create problems for carlton, geelong, doggies with an upset that opens the door for us.

I'm convinced that we win all 3 the likelihood seas will part for us in some way. Giving richmond a belting and getting our percentage to around 110 would make it a near certainty.

So step 1, get the job done against a shaky carlton this week. They are better than they have been showing though & its now or never for them.

 

[Mitch75]

The same St Kilda that beat Essendon 108 - 55 two weeks ago?

Yep that St Kilda.

This whole season has been the least predictable I can ever remember.

If we are able to win our last 3, then a 1-2 run home from any 2 of the 7 teams above us should see us through unless our wins are narrow and those losses are narrow.

This. Every team above us except for Sydney and Brisbane could potentially miss the 8 if they have a lapse. There are 8 point games everywhere, and teams lower down the ladder like StKilda, Adelaide and West Coast at home can cause upsets. We just need to do our bit and win the last three games. Carlton are wounded and ripe for the kill. Yes it’s their season on the line too, but if we can’t beat them we don’t deserve to play finals. Then we need to work on percentage against Richmond and take care of North. The likelihood is, if we do all that, someone above us will slip up and we’re in.

 

[Chubbs25]

Hope you're right but I cant see Fremantle beating them in Sydney.

Whoever loses this game needs to lose 3 and that would be handy

 

[Hawkers Hero]

AFL haven't helped us putting our rnd 24 game on Saturday.

Giants, Carlton, Freo and Port will all know what they need to do to make finals on the Sunday.

Boys just have to win out and put the foot down to boost % as much as possible.

 

[Simon Crawshay]

Whoever loses this game needs to lose 3 and that would be handy

We can get in with Freo just losing 2 (GWS we need to lose all 3).

 

[kazzooka]

There are multiple ways we can squeeze in - teams like st kilda and adelaide are dangerous and can create problems for carlton, geelong, doggies with an upset that opens the door for us.

I'm convinced that we win all 3 the likelihood seas will part for us in some way. Giving richmond a belting and getting our percentage to around 110 would make it a near certainty.

So step 1, get the job done against a shaky carlton this week. They are better than they have been showing though & its now or never for them.

I've done a ladder predictor and if we win all 3 the worst case scenario with results we miss on percentage.

There are many sides playing each other still and sides like GC, MEL, COLL, STKILDA that could beat our challengers and see us in on points.