Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[The Jet From Poowong]

Freo must win tomorrow to be guaranteed
If they lose to the Cats, they have GWS away, and then followed by a real squeaky bum last game V Port who generally play well in WA

 

[Bedi]

For those mathematically minded people,

If we win the last 3 games, what are the chances we make the 8 vs miss out8

we won't know till the last round, last game

 

[VandoHawk]

Fremantle have Geelong (WA), GWS (Engie), and Port Adelaide (WA) | Need two losses to overtake
GWS have Brisbane (Gabba), Fremantle (Engie) and Dogs (Mars) | Need three losses to overtake, OR two losses + 10%.
Carlton have us, WCE (WA), and St. Kilda | Need two losses to overtake, OR one loss + 10%

These are the three teams whose spots we can take. All other teams are technically gettable too but have better form and/or easier draws.

Essendon are also half a game ahead of us but they have GC (win), Swans (???) and Brisbane (Gabba).

We can still win all three and miss the 8 (on an unprecedented 14 wins) if some results don't go our way. Lose to Carlton and the dream is completely dead.

 

[Bedi]

Fremantle have Geelong (WA), GWS, and Port Adelaide (WA)
GWS have Brisbane (Gabba), Fremantle (Engie) and Dogs (Mars)
Carlton have us, WCE (WA), and St. Kilda

These are the three teams whose spots we can take. All other teams are technically gettable too but have better form and/or easier draws.

Essendon are also half a game ahead of us but they have GC (win), Swans (???) and Brisbane (Gabba).

We can still win all three and miss the 8 (on an unprecedented 14 wins) if some results don't go our way. Lose to Carlton and the dream is completely dead.

Bulldogs only one game ahead of us, and have Adelaide away (with Rankine back) and GWS, so more than 'technically' gettable.

 

[cryptor]

For those mathematically minded people,

If we win the last 3 games, what are the chances we make the 8 vs miss out8

43.5% to make top 8 according to Squiggle. Mostly due to other results being a factor.

Beat Carlton and this probably goes north of 60%.

 

[VandoHawk]

Bulldogs only one game ahead of us, and have Adelaide away and GWS, so more than 'technically' gettable.

Dogs have been impressive. They would need to lose two of their games vs Adelaide (unlikely), North (very unlikely) and GWS (50/50). Even if they only lose one, we aren't catching them on percentage.

 

[VandoHawk]

Results this week that would benefit us provided we beat Carlton

• Fremantle losing to Geelong in WA
• GWS losing to Brisbane at the Gabba
• Adelaide getting an unlikely win against the Dogs

 

[Bedi]

Results this week that would benefit us provided we beat Carlton

• Fremantle losing to Geelong in WA
• GWS losing to Brisbane at the Gabba
• Adelaide getting an unlikely win against the Dogs

The footy gods have given us little to nothing in the past few weeks, so lets hope things go our way

 

[Spanish Sahara]

Will settle for #2 and home final, so dickheads will prob rest a bunch of key players

With the pre finals bye I don’t see them resting many players.

 

[Walshawk]

43.5% to make top 8 according to Squiggle. Mostly due to other results being a factor.

Beat Carlton and this probably goes north of 60%.

Beat Carlton and it goes to around 72%

 

[marklar]

The footy gods have given us little to nothing in the past few weeks, so lets hope things go our way

Shitme won tonight, does that help?

No probably not <- me answering my own question

 

[cryptor]

Shitme won tonight, does that help?

No probably not <- me answering my own question

It might as far as keeping the top 2/4 positions contested right up until the end of the season. We need Dogs and Lions to win some games against GWS and Bombers.

 

[Hawkinspired]

Shitme won tonight, does that help?

No probably not <- me answering my own question

it probably helps slightly as there is one less contender. Collingwood we’re pretty much is the exact spot as us. If Sydney lost all three it would have been a factor but that would have been unlikely.

As many teams above us play each other and someone has to loose, the most helpful wins will be the upsets when a side above us looses to a team below. Example if St Kilda beat Geelong or Carlton.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

it probably helps slightly as there is one less contender. Collingwood we’re pretty much is the exact spot as us. If Sydney lost all three it would have been a factor but that would have been unlikely.

As many teams above us play each other and someone has to loose, the most helpful wins will be the upsets when a side above us looses to a team below. Example if St Kilda beat Geelong or Carlton.

Saints did a number on Geelong last year finishing their season. Only realistic chance they become at risk is if they lose their next 2 the Cats. Their draw is arguably the easiest of everybody as usual. Blues would be next in terms of draws. They beat us they are pretty much home IMO.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

GWS lose 2 and it comes down to percentage. I think that's plausible, and if they beat the dogs than dogs is on even points as us too (provided we will all 3.)

Dogs would need to lose 2 games. Losing one will keep them in front of us regardless as their percentage is way superior. Honestly think they will do a number on everybody and go into the finals one of the flag favourites. In this current form there almost unbeatable.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Realistically even though it's a small probability 13 wins and we can still make it. Teams need to lose at least 2 games each just ahead of us and we win 2 but rack up cricket scores in both. It's probably a 10-20 per cent chance but losing this weekend will not be fatal. Anything can happen the next 3 weeks. 14 IMO will be enough as long as we win comfortably from here on in. If were in a unassailable position this weekend in the last QTR we go the throat. Has to be the mindset now.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Pre finals bye should and I emphasise should mean nobody will rest players the last round even if there safely in finals. Wouldn't make much sense not having some of your better players not play for 3 weeks before the first final. Go hard last round have a rest than start again.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Confident against Carlton, need the win tho. Win big in the last two and the finals will be all be locked up.

Freo and GWS are the two who are genuinely chances of dropping out, Carlton could but an easier draw.

Freo has:
Geelong (H) - GWS (A) - Port (H)
They will be a chance to drop 2/3.

GWS even more so, if Hawthorn had beaten them they would drop heavily, have games now against:
Brisbane (A) - Freo (H) - Dogs (A)

Dogs could have a surprise lose Sunday night. That puts them firmly in play too.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Really need Brisbane and Geelong to get wins today. Both feasible results. If they don’t get the wins it might be only Carlton’s spot that is vulnerable, outside of some pretty big upsets occurring

 

[Bugs1977]

Really need Brisbane and Geelong to get wins today. Both feasible results. If they don’t get the wins it might be only Carlton’s spot that is vulnerable, outside of some pretty big upsets occurring

I reckon Andrews will keep Hogan honest enough today which will allow Brissy to get a comfortable win

 

[DogDaySonny]

If Brisbane continue to smash GWS’s % then another door is opening for us.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I reckon Andrews will keep Hogan honest enough today which will allow Brissy to get a comfortable win

Lions are making the same mistake we did not playing their best defender on the best forward. Andrews needs to be shoulder to shoulder with Hogan and sacrifice his own game for the betterment of the result.

 

[local hack]

I wouldn't be shocked if we made finals, but id be very, very surprised from here.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

ffs cmon brissy

 

[seysearles]

If Brisbane continue to smash GWS’s % then another door is opening for us.

Huge mozz