Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[kazzooka]

Essendon and Collingwood effectively out of contention unless they win both by crazy amounts and other crazy results happen for them.

So we assuming we win all 3 our 7 possible routes in are:

1. Carlton lose another game (WC, STK), or we overtake their percentage (this is a real posibility).

2. Fremantle lose 1 or more games (GWS, PORT)

3. Bulldogs lose 2 or more games (ADEL, NM, GWS)

OR

3.2 Bulldogs lose 1 more and we catch their percentage (VERY unlikely as it's a long way off.)

4. Brisbane lose both (COLL, ESS)

5. GEEL lose both (STK, WC) AND we catch them on percentage.

6. GWS Lose both (FRE, WB) AND we catch them on percentage.

7. PORT lose both (ADEL, FRE) AND we catch them on percentage.

 

[kazzooka]

Unlikely but Giants can still miss finals so they are not out of reach. However, for our sake we need them to beat Freo.

Too much percentage to make up, Geelong and Port on same points more likely to be a contender for percentage but both unlikely to lose both.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Too much percentage to make up, Geelong and Port on same points more likely to be a contender for percentage but both unlikely to lose both.

If they lose both and we win all 3 including a big win over the Tigers we would almost certainly make up the difference. Anyway we would prefer GWS to beat Freo next week regardless of what happens tomorrow.

 

[mustang]

If we make it, we could play Brisbane at home which is a good result for non Victorians supporters.

 

[theiaofseed]

Beat Carlton and Freo should drop at least one. They have GWS away and Port at home.

Carlton aren't shoe ins vs St Kilda either.

I think if we win all 3, we will make it.

HUGE game tomorrow.

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With how results went today, we still could make it with 13 wins if Fremantle drop their last 2 games. With GWS and Port left there's a possibility that could happen.

 

[Chubbs25]

Essendon and Collingwood effectively out of contention unless they win both by crazy amounts and other crazy results happen for them.

So we assuming we win all 3 our 7 possible routes in are:

1. Carlton lose another game (WC, STK), or we overtake their percentage (this is a real posibility).

2. Fremantle lose 1 or more games (GWS, PORT)

3. Bulldogs lose 2 or more games (ADEL, NM, GWS)

OR

3.2 Bulldogs lose 1 more and we catch their percentage (VERY unlikely as it's a long way off.)

4. Brisbane lose both (COLL, ESS)

5. GEEL lose both (STK, WC) AND we catch them on percentage.

6. GWS Lose both (FRE, WB) AND we catch them on percentage.

7. PORT lose both (ADEL, FRE) AND we catch them on percentage.

Our best cases now are bulldogs slip up (unlikely)
Freo lose both to give us a chance by winning only 2 more games.

Blues losing 2 and we win 3 (more likely against west coast in perth)

 

[Chubbs25]

My take is, win tomorrow and we will be playing finals unless a sputtering Freo pull something out of their arses. Can’t see it.

However, a loss v Carlton and all is not lost.

Assuming a loss (God forbid), here how it can pan out. Freo will be the only team we displace if we lose tomorrow.

Freo at long odds to beat GWS away. Would be shock and season over. Assume they lose.

Hawks will be short odds to win last 2. Finish with 52 points.

Everything will depend on Freo v Port. Last game of the season. 6.10 Sunday night. Freo will be on 50 points.

Port playing for a Top 2 position and a home final, Freo playing to play finals and knock us out. A real 50:50 game and both teams with plenty to play for.

Now that’s a tough watch!

Im with you on this one. GWS wont lose in sydney against freo.

Going to be a nervous final week

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

With how results went today, we still could make it with 13 wins if Fremantle drop their last 2 games. With GWS and Port left there's a possibility that could happen.

Dogs lose today their is 2 spots in the 8 up for grabs at least. 13 will make it we win 2 out of 3 and both Essendon and Pies lose both and Freo lose both. Result today may not matter in the grand scheme of things

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

 

[FisherHawk]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

But we've done that. Beat GWS, Lions, Dogs, almost Port and we'll knock over the Blues today

 

[Roger Rogerson]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

Nothing to do with the rest of the games played across the season? **** me.

 

[Sixpence]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

It's not like other teams haven't had soft kills to get to their current position, we just had our harder games earlier.

 

[eldorado]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

Everyone else has already said it...if we have easier games to end the year, other teams have had them already to get where they are.

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

AFL would have predicted Richmond would be better than us. It wasn't a soft kill when they "FIXture" was set up.

 

[Mrzohs]

Our best cases now are bulldogs slip up (unlikely)
Freo lose both to give us a chance by winning only 2 more games.

Blues losing 2 and we win 3 (more likely against west coast in perth)

Carlton and Freo spots up for grabs will come down to the last round and percentage.

First things first we need to win today.

 

[TylerDurden]

Id feel slightly hollow TBH getting in the 8 off of 2 soft kills. You want to do it beating other finals contenders or top 8 sides but that's just my opinion.

We've been on the road for 6 weeks. No one's had a tougher draw.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

It's not like other teams haven't had soft kills to get to their current position, we just had our harder games earlier.

More in terms of soft preparation I was referring to. I get alot of teams are in the 8 by having easy draws (Cats being one) just hope the boys win the right way if it comes to that and not glorified circle work.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

I think Dockers will lose against GWS and Port and finish the season on 12.5 wins. They might beat Port in Prth and finish on 13.5 wins. (Meaning we would have to win all three to finish above them). Freo is the one we are most likely to replace.

Carlton are currently on 12 wins. I think they'll finish the season on 13 or 14 wins. It's unlikely we'll finish above them but it's still possible if we beat them today and they drop the St Kilda game.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I think Dockers will lose against GWS and Port and finish the season on 12.5 wins. They might beat Port in Prth and finish on 13.5 wins. (Meaning we would have to win all three to finish above them). Freo is the one we are most likely to replace.

Carlton are currently on 12 wins. I think they'll finish the season on 13 or 14 wins. It's unlikely we'll finish above them but it's still possible if we beat them today and they drop the St Kilda game.

They play the Eagles in Perth next week. Not a gimme I reckon. Eagles can't drop or go up from where they are. They will be going flat out as it's inconsequential to any draft picks if that's the planning. They would be feeling they have to win today too because of the spoiler mindset the other teams will have

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

With all this talk of soft kills we’d want to hope that we win our last three games.

 

[wahawk]

With all this talk of soft kills we’d want to hope that we win our last three games.

Pretty silly talk really isn’t it.

Theres no such thing as a soft kill when your sitting 10th on the ladder.

 

[OnTheRocks]

If we stay in the 8, yeah!

 

[Mercy Seat]

*Can the Hawks win the flag in 2024?

 

[Billyc]

There for the taking now. Do what we should against the two worst teams in the country and we play finals.

 

[50metres]

*Can the Hawks win the flag in 2024?

Afl last 15 game Form Ladder