Can we go on a mini-rampage?

[Tanks_Alot]

Now first of all, we should be taking it one game at a time and i'm pretty sure that's what the club will do BUT what are our chances?

IF (a big IF) we can get over the line against the Cats, I think we have a very good chance to go on a bit of a mini rampage and keep winning till round 17.

With games against Melbourne, Port(doesn't matter where), Brisbane (down here, but doesn't matter anyway), Sydney(down here), West Coast (down here), Richmond and the Bulldogs (who look to be gone this season already). ALL are very winnable games, in fact the only teams out of those I just listed in which we lost to last year were the Swans and Dogs. We've already beaten the Swans up there so should be fairly confident against them and the Dogs as I said look to be in worse shape than they have for a long time.

Really out of all of those games the danger ones actually look like the Tiges who have improved a lot and the Eagles. Possibly Sydney can be a threat too.

If we want to prove we are top 4 material then these games must be won because after that we have tougher ones against the Pies, Bombers, Freo (up there) and the Hawks. Those 4 except Collingwood will be 50-50.

After not even winning 3 or 4 in a row for almost 8 years, can we win the unprecedented 11?

 

[Poseidon]

Even if we drop the game to Geelong we should win the next 7 if we're fair dinkum about competing in the finals. We have a tough finish to the season but the middle is pretty soft and I'd like to see us blow teams out of the water instead of these heart-attack inducing tight matches.

That said though, we really should take it slowly. Still a lot of footy to be played.

 

[macbeth7]

Lets just calm down a little.
Lets get to the cats game first and hopefuly get over the line.
All very winnable games but you cant look ahead more than a week in footy these days espicially not 11 weeks ahead.
I wouldnt think we will win that many games in a row, chances are we will drop atleast 1 or 2.
Not confident at all playing cats at dome.

Now first of all, we should be taking it one game at a time and i'm pretty sure that's what the club will do BUT what are our chances?

IF (a big IF) we can get over the line against the Cats, I think we have a very good chance to go on a bit of a mini rampage and keep winning till round 17.

With games against Melbourne, Port(doesn't matter where), Brisbane (down here, but doesn't matter anyway), Sydney(down here), West Coast (down here), Richmond and the Bulldogs (who look to be gone this season already). ALL are very winnable games, in fact the only teams out of those I just listed in which we lost to last year were the Swans and Dogs. We've already beaten the Swans up there so should be fairly confident against them and the Dogs as I said look to be in worse shape than they have for a long time.

Really out of all of those games the danger ones actually look like the Tiges who have improved a lot and the Eagles. Possibly Sydney can be a threat too.

If we want to prove we are top 4 material then these games must be won because after that we have tougher ones against the Pies, Bombers, Freo (up there) and the Hawks. Those 4 except Collingwood will be 50-50.

After not even winning 3 or 4 in a row for almost 8 years, can we win the unprecedented 11?

 

[zeeCFC]

Reckon 15 wins will get us top 4...I've got us tipped for 3rd place with 17 wins using the ladder predictor (hardly reliable, but fun exercise....for me...i need more hobbies)

 

[Chism]

While we are traveling well so far in the past we have dropped games we should of won and i am happy with the 1 week at a time approach.

Lets not count our eggs before they have hatched. We are still a developing team and play in patches and when we get it all together we will be a force don't worry about that.

Excellent times ahead for us.

 

[Tanks_Alot]

Lets just calm down a little.
Lets get to the cats game first and hopefuly get over the line.
All very winnable games but you cant look ahead more than a week in footy these days espicially not 11 weeks ahead.
I wouldnt think we will win that many games in a row, chances are we will drop atleast 1 or 2.
Not confident at all playing cats at dome.

Yep exactly mate. Which is why I said that the club (meaning coaching staff, players, everyone else there) will take it one at a time, they have to because you can't take any team for granted.

But as a supporter I can't help looking ahead and thinking yep, 6 years ago we would lose 11 in a row, now we have a chance to actually win 11 in a row. Cats will defintely be the biggest challenge though no doubt.

 

[Aphrodite]

Reckon 15 wins will get us top 4...I've got us tipped for 3rd place with 17 wins using the ladder predictor (hardly reliable, but fun exercise....for me...i need more hobbies)

So who are we playing in the Grand Final according to your ladder predictor?

 

[Blueboys7]

Settle down...we aren't looking too far ahead.

There is no point in making these sorts of predictions, we need to beat Geelong first. That is our sole focus for the next week and a half.

 

[Wickzki]

I was looking up to 11 matches in. I had us at 8-2-1 having lost to Geelong. Would be ecstatic if that happened. It would set us up for a top four spot.

However, I'm still a little snake bitten after last year. Looked like we had the goods in the first half of the season only to come crashing back to reality with the massive form slump.

It'll take a while to get Kreuzer fully integrated into the lineup let alone Henderson and Bower at the CHF/CHB. A lot of massive changes to effect the club in the next month or so. It wouldn't shock me to have a shock loss or two - losses that we take a lot from but the media pummels us and posters overreact on.

That Melbourne game that we have coming up to me appears to be the equivalent of the North Melbourne game last year. It was a huge game that meant a lot more to them than it did for us and they fired up and beat us. This Melbourne game appears to be the same. Weeks out and they're already promoting it for the Olivia Newton John cancer centre appeal match. Obviously this means for them that Jim Stynes is going to play a huge part in festivities, at least on a sentimental/emotional level. Melbourne have gotten up in huge matches dedicating their performance to Stynes in the past and this will be no different. Must win match for us.

Minimum expectation: finish fifth or sixth with a home final in week one.
My expectation: third or fourth with a final against Collingwood or Geelong.

Just cross your fingers that if we do finish 3/4 that Fremantle don't sneak up and get a home final against us.

 

[The_Wookie]

I think most of us forecast 2012 as THE year we would be a reasonable challenger. If we can get by with 5 or less losses and at least 2 finals (one at least won), Ill be a happy man.

R9 v Geelong is a danger game, unusually its at Etihad so should be a packed crowd.
R10 v Melbourne should be a win (MCG)
R11 v Port should be a win, even in adelaide
R12 v Brisbane should be a win (ES)
R13 v Sydney is a danger game, even at Etihad,.
R14 v WCE at Etihad should be a win, but they are in damn good form. danger game.
R15 v Richmond should be a win.
R16 v Bulldogs should be a win
R17 v Collingwood should be a loss, unless we lift dramatically
R18 v Essendon is a danger game.
R19 v North should be a win
R20 v Melbourne should be a win
R21 v Freo in perth should be a loss unless we lift dramatically
R22 v Hawthorn is always a danger game.
R23 is a bye
R24 v St Kilda is a danger game

So 5 danger games, and 2 losses...15 wins is in line with my prediction, if we lose all danger games.

 

[Wickzki]

I wouldn't consider form this early out for a game that is being played seven weeks from now (the Eagles game). A lot can change in a week or two let alone almost two months.

 

[NAUGHT5]

Nah we're getting so far ahead of ourselves it isn't funny.

Richmond - poor for the most part and lucky to win.
Gold Coast - Write off.
Collingwood - we're okay but proved to be a fair way off the pace.
Essendon - not a bad performance but should have won.
Adelaide - good early and then dropped off. lucky to win against a side who will be bottom half and got belted by 100 points on the weekend against Melbourne.
Sydney - good second half but we're very average early.
St.Kilda - have been in shit form and we were rubbish in the 2nd half. Showed some good ticker to get over the line.

Things could be very, very different around here if 1 or 2 decisions went another way. Let's focus on the Cats.

 

[serenityNow]

Nah we're getting so far ahead of ourselves it isn't funny.

Richmond - poor for the most part and lucky to win.
Gold Coast - Write off.
Collingwood - we're okay but proved to be a fair way off the pace.
Essendon - not a bad performance but should have won.
Adelaide - good early and then dropped off. lucky to win against a side who will be bottom half and got belted by 100 points on the weekend against Melbourne.
Sydney - good second half but we're very average early.
St.Kilda - have been in shit form and we were rubbish in the 2nd half. Showed some good ticker to get over the line.

Things could be very, very different around here if 1 or 2 decisions went another way. Let's focus on the Cats.

Agree. A 4 quarter effort is what we need. Can't keep fading in and out of games. I'm confident we will finish top 4, but if we want to beat the sides around us....Hawthorns,Essendons,Geelongs then we must start putting 4 quarters together. We have to start pulling the trigger on sides and putting them away too when we have the chance.

I'm only looking at the Geelong game for now...........and we wont beat the cats unless we bring that 4 full quarters, if we fade out against that mob they will pile on some goals very quickly.

 

[T2B_]

From the title I thought this was about crashing another teams board or something

I'm confident we can probably win a lot of those games but at the same time I can't help but feel that uneasiness considering at this stage in our development we still drop off and on and probably still capable of dropping games we should really win.

Also a bit worried how flat we might be after the bye, though on the other hand it's a good rest after the tough battles we've had recently.

 

[Amers]

So who are we playing in the Grand Final according to your ladder predictor?

Collingwood.

 

[chaser1]

Have improved all but slowly credit to the coaching staff and players. But we let other teams in the game with continual lapses. Dont get ahead of ourselves we have a long way to go. Have to learn to put away teams when given the opportunity. Problem is we are not at the moment, means we are still developing.

 

[thylacine60]

Hate to cliche but let's just take things one outlandish prediction at a time.

 

[The Toad]

I just love the fact that we are starting to get a little bit of arrogance back. It's been way too long for mine.

 

[40yearBLUE]

One week at a time suits me. But just to join in the festivities to fill in the 10 days till the next game:

We have been winning ugly. If you look back at the form at the start of the run of wins of most teams that stay at the top (At the moment Collingwood and Geelong but you could add the Saints up until this year) they found ways to win whilst in form slumps or just finding their structures and confidence. That's where we are.

When all the pieces fall into place and click together we will beat the likes of Collingwood or Geelong and smash the lower sides not fall over the line ugly. Even the Saints game, if we scored at league average conversion of about 3:2 (3 goals to 2 points) we would have scored 18.11 (like the second qtr where we kicked 6.4) and won that game by 40 odd points.

In the past 3 weeks (and Rd1 v Tigers) we have had to come from behind after dominating sections of the games enough to be so far up that we would never be headed had we kicked straight (35 goals 52 points from our last 3 games and 14.20 v Tigers), turn that around to the average of 72 goals 48 and we win all 4 games by similar comfortable margins of around 40 points. I have no doubt we will get that accuracy back and when we do, if we maintain the dominance we have in the other areas of our game we will start winning pretty. Some is to do with structure, but most is just bad luck (the law of averages kicking us a while, it turns around, no-one has a nice neat 3:2 scoring week in week out but thats what the averages return to eventually).

Rounds 11-15 provide us with that chance to bury some sides again and get that confidence running in the run home to the finals.

And just to finish off this circle work, back in the day, a side that was near the end of a run at the top had successive losses to Sydney and StKilda that sparked a run of 16 wins culminating in a flag. Maybe successive gutsy wins against the same 2 sides will spark a similar run with a similar conclusion.

Go Baggers

 

[Krooooze]

Yep we shouldn't be looking that far ahead at all atm, we are in good space now and exceeded expectations with our improvement but there are still many flaws in our game

There are still two things concerning me atm, the first is our constant butchering of the ball, esp in front of goal, if we continue to at this sort rate of accuracy the quality sides will beat us comfortably

The second thing that really is frustrating is how we continue to get into good positions but fade quickly and let the opponents back in the game through poor accountability, turnovers and not taking our chances. I reckon we kept the ball in our fwd 50 for 70% of the game though great pressure acts etc, but we just don't make the opposition pay on the scoreboard. When we have these sorts of lapses we usually don't look like scoring for ten or so minutes......we need consistency over four qtrs......it has been particularly noticeable in our third quarters, aka the 'premiership qtr'

 

[Aphrodite]

One week at a time suits me. But just to join in the festivities to fill in the 10 days till the next game:

We have been winning ugly. If you look back at the form at the start of the run of wins of most teams that stay at the top (At the moment Collingwood and Geelong but you could add the Saints up until this year) they found ways to win whilst in form slumps or just finding their structures and confidence. That's where we are.

When all the pieces fall into place and click together we will beat the likes of Collingwood or Geelong and smash the lower sides not fall over the line ugly. Even the Saints game, if we scored at league average conversion of about 3:2 (3 goals to 2 points) we would have scored 18.11 (like the second qtr where we kicked 6.4) and won that game by 40 odd points.

In the past 3 weeks (and Rd1 v Tigers) we have had to come from behind after dominating sections of the games enough to be so far up that we would never be headed had we kicked straight (35 goals 52 points from our last 3 games and 14.20 v Tigers), turn that around to the average of 72 goals 48 and we win all 4 games by similar comfortable margins of around 40 points. I have no doubt we will get that accuracy back and when we do, if we maintain the dominance we have in the other areas of our game we will start winning pretty. Some is to do with structure, but most is just bad luck (the law of averages kicking us a while, it turns around, no-one has a nice neat 3:2 scoring week in week out but thats what the averages return to eventually).

Rounds 11-15 provide us with that chance to bury some sides again and get that confidence running in the run home to the finals.

And just to finish off this circle work, back in the day, a side that was near the end of a run at the top had successive losses to Sydney and StKilda that sparked a run of 16 wins culminating in a flag. Maybe successive gutsy wins against the same 2 sides will spark a similar run with a similar conclusion.

Go Baggers

Great post 40yr

I remember it very well in 1995 with the successive losses to the Swans & the Saints.
From memory I think it was Rnds 8 & 9.

Dare to dream but definitely 1 week at a time suits me to a tee as well.

 

[Blue Dawn]

Even if we drop the game to Geelong we should win the next 7 if we're fair dinkum about competing in the finals. We have a tough finish to the season but the middle is pretty soft and I'd like to see us blow teams out of the water instead of these heart-attack inducing tight matches.

That said though, we really should take it slowly. Still a lot of footy to be played.

Mate you seriously need to STOP betting if the result is that sh!t-for-brains signiture you've lugging around here of late.

Was rounds 8 & 9 in '95 Aph. Only managed our first goal in the 3rd Q against the Aints in R9! That was certainly some sort of wake-up.

 

[Jabba73]

One week at a time suits me. But just to join in the festivities to fill in the 10 days till the next game:

We have been winning ugly. If you look back at the form at the start of the run of wins of most teams that stay at the top (At the moment Collingwood and Geelong but you could add the Saints up until this year) they found ways to win whilst in form slumps or just finding their structures and confidence. That's where we are.

When all the pieces fall into place and click together we will beat the likes of Collingwood or Geelong and smash the lower sides not fall over the line ugly. Even the Saints game, if we scored at league average conversion of about 3:2 (3 goals to 2 points) we would have scored 18.11 (like the second qtr where we kicked 6.4) and won that game by 40 odd points.

In the past 3 weeks (and Rd1 v Tigers) we have had to come from behind after dominating sections of the games enough to be so far up that we would never be headed had we kicked straight (35 goals 52 points from our last 3 games and 14.20 v Tigers), turn that around to the average of 72 goals 48 and we win all 4 games by similar comfortable margins of around 40 points. I have no doubt we will get that accuracy back and when we do, if we maintain the dominance we have in the other areas of our game we will start winning pretty. Some is to do with structure, but most is just bad luck (the law of averages kicking us a while, it turns around, no-one has a nice neat 3:2 scoring week in week out but thats what the averages return to eventually).

Rounds 11-15 provide us with that chance to bury some sides again and get that confidence running in the run home to the finals.

And just to finish off this circle work, back in the day, a side that was near the end of a run at the top had successive losses to Sydney and StKilda that sparked a run of 16 wins culminating in a flag. Maybe successive gutsy wins against the same 2 sides will spark a similar run with a similar conclusion.

Go Baggers

As I mentioned in another thread a few weeks ago, winning ugly is the first sign of real improvement in a team. It means we are getting the job done without playing well which will give us a good ladder position for a finals assault.

When it does come together, there will be few teams that can stay with us for long.

 

[thylacine60]

say the word...

 

[Kades_Dad]

Personally, I can't see us losing a game for at least the next 5 or 6 years, and even then I expect the loss to be in the NAB Cup with all of our senior players resting.