List Mgmt. Carlton Draft 2021

[footyfan1978]

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Wonder what the interest is for clubs getting better hands at this years draft seeing that it's a huge unknown for Victorian players ie. the bulk of the draft.

Is it because they think they can pick up gems that may have otherwise been early selections? Because they think they are contending now/soon and would rather get a year into a kid then wait another year?

Reckon it you could get a glimpse at clubs draft rankings, this year would wildly differ club to club - way more than any year previously.

18 different clubs is a lot of differences in interests. Picks being traded for points reasons or any number of reasons will happen. Also some want future picks more than this year's pick etc etc.
Some clubs just do a trade for the moment to get hold of a pick they can use to trade again and upgrade again with another club.
I suspect there will be heaps and heaps of trades that only involve draft picks before we get to the actual picks relevant to us on the night.
Remember there also live trading and even on second day of draft there will be more. Lots of picks will go threw 2 to 4 or even 5 clubs by the time the pick is actually called out in the draft.
The more interesting trades for picks tend to the ones where clubs try to upgrade two or three times to get from from up the draft order. Like Port did the year they wanted to draft Rozee, Butters etc. They offered a lot of picks to be able to get ahead of Crows to get hold of Rozee.

Also loved the trade we did to actually slide back in draft after first 10 picks one live night to split our pick into two and ended up with Kemp and Philp when really should have only had one pick to use early. We did a few trades to get there and even bid on Liam Henry at first from memory.

I think there are more trades about picks these days than trades about players.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Is any club that may have an interest in 64 for points in a position to give a small upgrade to 25?

 

[Bletch]

Surely dogs do it if no other offers come

Decided to have a look at the numbers on this one.

Question: Do the points values for picks get re-calculated on draft night after each matched F/S and Academy pick?
i.e. When Daicos gets called out (likely at pick #2), and Pies lose a bunch of picks, our pick 64 will come in a ways. Does it stay at 101 points value, or is that immediately recalculated based on the new draft pick number?

Ignoring that for now, Dogs have 23, 43, 44, 45, 52, 93.

If Darcy goes at #3, it'll cost the Dogs 1676 points to match. This equates to 23, 43, 44 and 45 (1902 points). They can take 52 and 93 for further picks.
However, if he goes at #4 (1526 points), they'll get to keep 45, as 23, 43 and 44 add to 1555 points. In this case, they get 45 and 52 for further picks.

Now, if we trade 25 for 23 and 64, it means they'll have 25, 43, 44, 45, 52, 64. If Darcy goes at #3, it doesn't change the picks they lose as 1902 comes down to 1843, still higher than the 1676 they need to pay. They then get to use 52 and 64 for further picks. Dogs would like this outcome you'd think.
But, if Darcy goes at #4 in this scenario, they'll still have to spend 45, as 1555 moves to 1496 - not enough for the 1526 points they need.

The safe play for the Dogs is probably to keep 23. All of this will change based on the Question above - if points are recalculated, will have to redo the numbers. It will also be relevant to know just how many picks the Dogs intend to use.

 

[footyfan1978]

Decided to have a look at the numbers on this one.

Question: Do the points values for picks get re-calculated on draft night after each matched F/S and Academy pick?
i.e. When Daicos gets called out (likely at pick #2), and Pies lose a bunch of picks, our pick 64 will come in a ways. Does it stay at 101 points value, or is that immediately recalculated based on the new draft pick number?

Yes, it all updated in real time.
But the points value of a pick like 64 is not important to us. Only important to a club where points to bid on F/S and Academy players is part of their draft night.
Should be noted we have no intention of using 64 as a live pick on the night. Whether it becomes pick 61, 66 or whatever, we intend to use it to upgrade either Kennedy or Honey from rookie list they were this season into primary list spot.

 

[Bletch]

Yes, it all updated in real time.
But the points value of a pick like 64 is not important to us. Only important to a club where points to bid on F/S and Academy players is part of their draft night.
Should be noted we have no intention of using 64 as a live pick on the night. Whether it becomes pick 61, 66 or whatever, we intend to use it to upgrade either Kennedy or Honey from rookie list they were this season into primary list spot.

Thanks!

And yes - the idea being we might use 64 in a trade to move 25 up the order. e.g. 25+ 64 for Dogs' 23 - because points are important to them. We can get their 93 back to use on the upgrade, as it is no use to them.

 

[footyfan1978]

Thanks!

And yes - the idea being we might use 64 in a trade to move 25 up the order. e.g. 25+ 64 for Dogs' 23 - because points are important to them. We can get their 93 back to use on the upgrade, as it is no use to them.

There are literally heaps of scenarios that could happen.
Collingwood's pick they have now in 20's is really of no use to them apart from points which will be gobbled up from when they are made to take Daicos.
Our 25 as present is really more like a pick 27 in whatever points value it becomes in real time because we know it will be pushed back at least 2 spots due to Darcy and Daicos will be used well before our first pick on the night. There maybe other live bids before our first live pick but only heard of Daicos and Darcy ones to this point in time.

 

[Bletch]

There are literally heaps of scenarios that could happen.
Collingwood's pick they have now in 20's is really of no use to them apart from points which will be gobbled up from when they are made to take Daicos.
Our 25 as present is really more like a pick 27 in whatever points value it becomes in real time because we know it will be pushed back at least 2 spots due to Darcy and Daicos will be used well before our first pick on the night. There maybe other live bids before our first live pick but only heard of Daicos and Darcy ones to this point in time.

There are several F/S & Academy kids that could potentially be picked before our pick (Owens, Windhager - STK; Uwland - Suns; Fahey - GWS; Burgoyne - PA).

 

[CJMB]

Yes, it all updated in real time.
But the points value of a pick like 64 is not important to us. Only important to a club where points to bid on F/S and Academy players is part of their draft night.
Should be noted we have no intention of using 64 as a live pick on the night. Whether it becomes pick 61, 66 or whatever, we intend to use it to upgrade either Kennedy or Honey from rookie list they were this season into primary list spot.

Worth noting too that they can only use picks that they have vacant lost spots for.

So if dogs have 4 free list spots on draft night, they can only use the points from 4 picks to match the bid.

A later pick like our 64 (or whatever it is) might not be worth another club taking, even if they could use the ~100 points.

 

[Bletch]

I'm still a little flummoxed as to how this works. Appreciate anyone who knows can help...

Daicos gets taken at pick 2. Points 2517*0.8= 2014 to match.

Pies have 27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79.

Q1. Do we:
(a) add 703 (for 27) + 502 (36) + 331 (46) + 302 (48) + 207 (55) = 2045 to match, or...
(b) take just the 703 (for 27) then recalculate the rest with pick 27 removed (so pick 36 would become 35 worth 522 points instead of 502) and so on...

Q2. At the end of it, there's some points left over. e.g. in above example 2045-2014= 31. That's equivalent to a pick between 70 and 71. Do the Pies then get pick 71 after 27, 36, 46, 48, 55 are removed? At what point does this get added, after the recalculation, or at the same time?

I've tried searching for detailed info on this, but can't find it. Would love to know.

 

[Jimmae]

Ps if we were going to re-rookie Cottrell at the rookie draft we would've just offered him a 1 year deal. He obviously needs to be off the list come lodgement and re-taken later.

Next year will be Cottrell's 4th year, so there is a reason to re-rookie him regardless. Would prefer we do it via the SSP arrangement, but having thought more about it, Doc and Marchbank will probably back in full training in February.

 

[Stamos]

Decided to have a look at the numbers on this one.

Question: Do the points values for picks get re-calculated on draft night after each matched F/S and Academy pick?
i.e. When Daicos gets called out (likely at pick #2), and Pies lose a bunch of picks, our pick 64 will come in a ways. Does it stay at 101 points value, or is that immediately recalculated based on the new draft pick number?

Ignoring that for now, Dogs have 23, 43, 44, 45, 52, 93.

If Darcy goes at #3, it'll cost the Dogs 1676 points to match. This equates to 23, 43, 44 and 45 (1902 points). They can take 52 and 93 for further picks.
However, if he goes at #4 (1526 points), they'll get to keep 45, as 23, 43 and 44 add to 1555 points. In this case, they get 45 and 52 for further picks.

Now, if we trade 25 for 23 and 64, it means they'll have 25, 43, 44, 45, 52, 64. If Darcy goes at #3, it doesn't change the picks they lose as 1902 comes down to 1843, still higher than the 1676 they need to pay. They then get to use 52 and 64 for further picks. Dogs would like this outcome you'd think.
But, if Darcy goes at #4 in this scenario, they'll still have to spend 45, as 1555 moves to 1496 - not enough for the 1526 points they need.

The safe play for the Dogs is probably to keep 23. All of this will change based on the Question above - if points are recalculated, will have to redo the numbers. It will also be relevant to know just how many picks the Dogs intend to use.

Good post, except everything changes with Collingwood's picks likely wiped by a Daicos bid before Darcy.

 

[footyfan1978]

Worth noting too that they can only use picks that they have vacant lost spots for.

So if dogs have 4 free list spots on draft night, they can only use the points from 4 picks to match the bid.

A later pick like our 64 (or whatever it is) might not be worth another club taking, even if they could use the ~100 points.

Correct. They only allowed that loophole in first year of this system.

 

[Stamos]

Correct. They only allowed that loophole in first year of this system.

And last year

 

[Coona Blues]

FWIW. With the rumour clamp, had only heard two draft whispers over the journey. One was Gibcus who will be gone in the top 10. The other rumoured by a couple a while ago was Connor MacDonald, who would fit the profile outlined by Austin. Not advocating, just passing on observations.

 

[Jimmae]

Good post, except everything changes with Collingwood's picks likely wiped by a Daicos bid before Darcy.

If Daicos isn't bid on at pick 1, I'm going to be extremely disappointed. Complete midfielder for his size, would have played 22 games this year.

 

[Bluebag13]

FWIW. With the rumour clamp, had only heard two draft whispers over the journey. One was Gibcus who will be gone in the top 10. The other rumoured by a couple a while ago was Connor MacDonald, who would fit the profile outlined by Austin. Not advocating, just passing on observations.

What’s the profile Austin outlined? Was this a public one or part of the rumour ?


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[FlowersByIrene]

If Daicos isn't bid on at pick 1, I'm going to be extremely disappointed. Complete midfielder for his size, would have played 22 games this year.

He's not getting bid on NO WAY.

 

[Arr0w]

He's not getting bid on NO WAY.

Start of last year I had him top 2, now moreso around 4-5

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Start of last year I had him top 2, now moreso around 4-5

I still think he's the best player, but there is no chance North are not taking Horne Francis after how much they lauded Pick #1 and him throughout the trade period.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Worth noting too that they can only use picks that they have vacant lost spots for.

So if dogs have 4 free list spots on draft night, they can only use the points from 4 picks to match the bid.

A later pick like our 64 (or whatever it is) might not be worth another club taking, even if they could use the ~100 points.

But they get to use such picks to actually draft other players, yes?

 

[AT97]

Start of last year I had him top 2, now moreso around 4-5

Who do you have ahead of him?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Who do you have ahead of him?

In order for me - Callaghan, Goater*, JHF, Mac Andrew

I think Daicos will be best performing for the first 3 years and plateau same as Zach Merrett did. Very very good footballer but dont believe his scope for development is as high as others.

PS dont crucify me - These are just my own beliefs.

 

[Bletch]

In order for me - Callaghan, Goater*, JHF, Mac Andrew

I think Daicos will be best performing for the first 3 years and plateau same as Zach Merrett did. Very very good footballer but dont believe his scope for development is as high as others.

PS dont crucify me - These are just my own beliefs.

So... if Walsh is the GOAT, is Josh GOATER?

(sorry, but someone had to...)

 

[Jimmae]

I still think he's the best player, but there is no chance North are not taking Horne Francis after how much they lauded Pick #1 and him throughout the trade period.

There's no chance Collingwood isn't matching the bid. He is the best player, make them earn it. North are always going to get Horne-Francis, this is just about respecting the talent pool and correctly valuing the market for players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

So... if Walsh is the GOAT, is Josh GOATER?

(sorry, but someone had to...)

Hes an absolute weapon, his kicking is all over the place but if he tidies it up he will be a serious serious player. Think this draft more than any Ive seen the club these players will get drafted to will have the biggest impact on their futures. A lot of very talented but soft players, and a lot of tough as nails players who really need a good skills coach to work with them. A good club will fix these issues but somewhere like Gold coast I wouldn't back in to get the best out of them.

Callaghan imo has the biggest ceiling of any player in the draft but if he goes to the wrong club he could end up like Lukosious who simply runs around playing kick to kick to a high level but seems uninterested in putting his body on the line because he can get by without doing so.