Preview Changes: R6 vs Hawthorn, Sunday April 23, 12.40pm ACST @ York Park (Tasmania)

[AFC979810]

I know you love the club Bicks - but you really think our SANFL side wouldn't get smashed by an AFL team?

 

[Scorpus]

I know you love the club Bicks - but you really think our SANFL side wouldn't get smashed by an AFL team?

The only club we'd be a chance against is West Coast, playing their current injury riddled team

B McPherson - Borlase - Worrell
HB Cook - Keane - Parnell

R Strachan - Crouch - Berry
C Brown - Schoenberg - Nankervis

HF Taylor - Himmelberg - Wright
F Newchurch - Gollant - McAdam

I Hamill - Hately - Dowling - Madgen

vs

B Witherden - Barrass - Hurn
HB Jones - Rotham - Duggan

R Barnett - Kelly - Ginbey
C Gaff - Culley - Clark

HF Petrevski-Seton - Darling - Hunt
F Petruccelle - Allen - Long

I Hough - Edwards - Waterman - O'Neill


West Coast have the stronger tall forward line, but we'd have the better small forwards. They'd have a defensive advantage with Barrass and Hurn. We'd have the superior ruck and our midfield in this battle is deeper. Would be a close game I reckon

 

[AFC979810]

The only club we'd be a chance against is West Coast, playing their current injury riddled team

B McPherson - Borlase - Worrell
HB Cook - Keane - Parnell

R Strachan - Crouch - Berry
C Brown - Schoenberg - Nankervis

HF Taylor - Himmelberg - Wright
F Newchurch - Gollant - McAdam

I Hamill - Hately - Dowling - Madgen

vs

B Witherden - Barrass - Hurn
HB Jones - Rotham - Duggan

R Barnett - Kelly - Ginbey
C Gaff - Culley - Clark

HF Petrevski-Seton - Darling - Hunt
F Petruccelle - Allen - Long

I Hough - Edwards - Waterman - O'Neill


West Coast have the stronger tall forward line, but we'd have the better small forwards. They'd have a defensive advantage with Barrass and Hurn. We'd have the superior ruck and our midfield in this battle is deeper. Would be a close game I reckon

The same team that was losing to West Adelaide at half time would beat West Coast?

No chance in hell. Those two teams play each other 10 times - West Coast wins 9 out of 10 by 50+

 

[Scorpus]

The same team that was losing to West Adelaide at half time would beat West Coast?

No chance in hell. Those two teams play each other 10 times - West Coast wins 9 out of 10 by 50+

Not the same team that was losing to West Adelaide at half time. It's that team with all the top-ups replaced by Schoenberg, Berry, McAdam, Gollant, Parnell and Worrell

And yes, they'd be in with a chance to beat West Coast. Because West Coast are fielding their WAFL team. They've got like 7 good players on the park.

 

[AFC979810]

Not the same team that was losing to West Adelaide at half time. It's that team with all the top-ups replaced by Schoenberg, Berry, McAdam, Gollant, Parnell and Worrell

And yes, they'd be in with a chance to beat West Coast. Because West Coast are fielding their WAFL team. They've got like 7 good players on the park.

The top 10 alone would decide that game. Give me Kelly, Allen, Darling, Barrass, Hurn, Duggan, Witherdon, Hunt, Waterman, Gaff.

People forget the difference between SANFL and AFL.

 

[Scorpus]

The top 10 alone would decide that game. Give me Kelly, Allen, Darling, Barrass, Hurn, Duggan, Witherdon, Hunt, Waterman, Gaff.

People forget the difference between SANFL and AFL.

Tag Kelly out of the game and our SANFL midfield would be all over them

 

[relapse]

Not going to be popular, but.....

OUT: Soligo

I know we had a good win, but we're not at the point yet where we can let a performance like that go through the keeper especially when the week before we dropped McHenry.

 

[Trigger13]

I strongly believe this is the game that will tell us if this mob has truly matured or not. It isn’t the games against the best that paint the picture. It’s the games against lowly teams, after we’ve beeen drinking our own bath water. Huge game. No changes.

 

[Scorpus]

Not going to be popular, but.....

OUT: Soligo

I know we had a good win, but we're not at the point yet where we can let a performance like that go through the keeper especially when the week before we dropped McHenry.

Yes, but Soligo >(^∞) McHenry

 

[Bearded Clam]

Not going to be popular, but.....

OUT: Soligo

I know we had a good win, but we're not at the point yet where we can let a performance like that go through the keeper especially when the week before we dropped McHenry.

The difference is Soligo has 1 quiet/bad game in every 10..

Whereas Mchenry, who has more experience, has 1 quiet/bad game in every 3-4.

And Soligo is lightyears ahead of mchenry in skill, talent and footy IQ.

I let that Soligo game go through to the keeper the very minute the final siren sounded.

 

[AFC979810]

Tag Kelly out of the game and our SANFL midfield would be all over them

Matt Crouch would get 40 touches that would halt momentum and slow us down. Schoenberg would kick it to Hurn and if Berry's 2023 form continues its possible he is allergic to the Sherrin.

It would be scary what Allen/Darling would do to Keane/Borlase.

 

[GROTTO]

I strongly believe this is the game that will tell us if this mob has truly matured or not. It isn’t the games against the best that paint the picture. It’s the games against lowly teams, after we’ve beeen drinking our own bath water. Huge game. No changes.

While I dont disagree, they did pass one test after the Showdown win in taking care of Freo.

I was still drunk from the bathwater, but Im glad Nicks had the right mindset after our victory over Port.

I dont expect wins vs the Pies (though possible, if their big man injury list continues, they wont have answers for our tall forwards) and Cats at that shit hole.

However for me our chance of making the 8 probably rests with our games vs Saints and Dogs, both teams will be around that mark to make the 8. These games could end up being the difference.

 

[MarcusP2]

Crazy, seems like the easiest way to go about things, win the clearance.

I think it's more difficult than most think to win a good clearance (to clear space). The majority don't lead to anything. So the strategy when you lose them is more important.

It's why it stands out when you are giving up unpressured clearances. Losing them but keeping them poor quality is far less impactful...e.g the record is losing clearances by 33 (54-21). That was Gold Coast vs St Kilda. They lost by 2 points. Geelong beat us by 27 in clearances and lost by 15 points in 2018.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

if not this week when is a good time to rest Tex and Sloane?

Perth and Brisbane are options or back to back 6 day breaks

Not this week

 

[BACCS]

It is very interesting, but not for the reason you think it is. Judging by your question and your comments on other threads - you really don't rate our midfield and love the Hawks midfield. Thats fine, but for the context of this season here is how we have gone with clearances.

Round 1 - Adelaide lost clearances 35-33 and lost by 16 points. Centre clearances we lost 16-14.
Round 2 - Adelaide lost clearances 36-33 and lost by 32 points. Centre clearances we lost 14-11.

Insert Dawson into the middle:

Round 3 - Adelaide lost clearances 50-39 and won by 31 points. Centre clearances we lost 18-10.
Round 4 - Adelaide lost clearances 44-35 and won by 39 points. Centre clearances we lost 12-7
Round 5 - Adelaide lost clearances 42-37 and won by 56 points. Centre clearances we won 18-12.

Now look at a couple of your losses. Sydney smashed you by 81 points and you won the clearances 35-27. You also got absolutely flogged by Geelong by 82 and drew even at 35 clearances each.

The three teams with the best clearance differential are Hawks, Suns, Bulldogs for a combined win loss record of 4 wins - 11 losses. Meanwhile 6 of the top 8 sides (Melbourne, Saints, Swans, Crows, Carlton, Pies) all have a negative clearance differential.

So to answer your question - I would say that since Dawson has been introduced into the midfield I would classify our midfield as good. When All Australian squad member Rory Laird now becomes our second best midfielder - then that is a huge win for our club.

Based on above - I would suggest if you are looking for any discussion around quality of midfield, using clearance differential is an absolutely terrible way to go about it.

By chance your real name isn't M. Crouch.... Or Matt C is it?

I also heard a stat from David King on SEN earlier this week that the Crows are the number one team at getting the ball immediately back after losing the clearance i.e. we put enough pressure on to cause that clearance to be a turnover. The other teams in the top 5 are Essendon, Melbourne, Pies and Saints. Basically, winning clearances is only one part of the equation, they actually need to be effective too. So the Crows might be negative on the differential, but are very good at getting the ball immediately back and then also make their clearances count by retaining possession/finding a target inside 50.

 

[ContrarianCrow]

I also heard a stat from David King on SEN earlier this week that the Crows are the number one team at getting the ball immediately back after losing the clearance i.e. we put enough pressure on to cause that clearance to be a turnover. The other teams in the top 5 are Essendon, Melbourne, Pies and Saints. Basically, winning clearances is only one part of the equation, they actually need to be effective too. So the Crows might be negative on the differential, but are very good at getting the ball immediately back and then also make their clearances count by retaining possession/finding a target inside 50.

This has probably been the most pleasing area to watch in our development, the focus on effective clearances rather than the haphazard bombardment strategy we've used for the last 20 years - I still have nightmares of Tyson Stenglein slamming the ball onto his boot like a hyperactive Auskicker back in the day. Was it Neil or Sando who used to spruik "deep inside 50 entries"? As if blindly bombing deep was a more effective strategy than lowering the eyes for a leading target 35-40 out.

 

[MrBarry]

Crazy, seems like the easiest way to go about things, win the clearance.

Not if your forward line isn't efficient. It will come straight back out.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Not sure if any of you actually care.

But a stat i saw was your clearance differential is -30, Hawthorn's is +29.

It's quite interesting, would you guys say your midfield is good?

Laird is obviously great at winning the footy, Rachele brings plenty of XFactor and damage forward of centre, Dawson in there the last two weeks is a revelation and his kicking and ability to win it is first class, ROBs a pretty good ruck also.

Coming in late here but clearances are really only one way to get the ball moving into your forward 50. and it isn't always a good indicator for team strength.

hawthorn and gold coast have the 2 best clearance differentials in the league, but hawks are 18th for I50 differential and gc are 16th. the crows are 8th.

Metres gained is the stat that probably has the strongest correlation with ladder position. Hawks and gc, are 18th and 16th respectively on this too.

Melbourne are currently 14th for clearance differential, but 1st for metres gained and 5th for I50.

 

[Golumless]

Not going to be popular, but.....

OUT: Soligo

I know we had a good win, but we're not at the point yet where we can let a performance like that go through the keeper especially when the week before we dropped McHenry.

Correct, that is not popular.

More, yeah, we can. Soligo has shown enough in the past year and a bit to deserve a chance at a bounceback game.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I also heard a stat from David King on SEN earlier this week that the Crows are the number one team at getting the ball immediately back after losing the clearance i.e. we put enough pressure on to cause that clearance to be a turnover. The other teams in the top 5 are Essendon, Melbourne, Pies and Saints. Basically, winning clearances is only one part of the equation, they actually need to be effective too. So the Crows might be negative on the differential, but are very good at getting the ball immediately back and then also make their clearances count by retaining possession/finding a target inside 50.

Which is weird because i thought gws and richmond did a lot of damage out of the centre.

 

[MrBarry]

Not going to be popular, but.....

OUT: Soligo

I know we had a good win, but we're not at the point yet where we can let a performance like that go through the keeper especially when the week before we dropped McHenry.

This is just a really bad idea.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Coming in late here but clearances are really only one way to get the ball moving into your forward 50. and it isn't always a good indicator for team strength.

hawthorn and gold coast have the 2 best clearance differentials in the league, but hawks are 18th for I50 differential and gc are 16th. the crows are 8th.

Metres gained is the stat that probably has the strongest correlation with ladder position. Hawks and gc, are 18th and 16th respectively on this too.

Melbourne are currently 14th for clearance differential, but 1st for metres gained and 5th for I50.

Yep, posted above, it’s good that teams can win clearances but it’s about making them effective.

 

[MarcusP2]

Which is weird because i thought gws and richmond did a lot of damage out of the centre.

Maybe that's a sign we are usually not too bad is that it's incredibly memorable when Coniglio is waltzing out.

 

[FR0GGY]

Not if your forward line isn't efficient. It will come straight back out.

Surely that works the same on turnovers then, you’re just cutting out the middle man with clearances

 

[MarcusP2]

Surely that works the same on turnovers then, you’re just cutting out the middle man with clearances

Turnovers have a better chance of the oppo being out of position.