List Mgmt. Contract, Trade & Draftee Discussion - 2022 Off Season Edition

[Keys]

Contract status of all players now fully updated

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R) Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Current contract status (Updated 18/10/24) : Total 39 Players -...

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[dinnaz]

I am not bagging Sheed in saying this. I think he is a pretty good player for us. But it would be interesting to read the recruiters notes for that year and see why they had such tunnel vision for Sheed in that draft. Why were they so sure he was a better prospect than other options like Cripps? It seems difficult to fathom on the surface. Even taking all the Hindsight bias out of it in the present moment now that Cripps has won a Brownlow and just stripping it back to what we knew on draft day in 2013, Cripps had, and still has, much better physical and athletic attributes than Sheed.

Sheed was playing a lot of League level WAFL in his draft year compared to Cripps who was an okay player in the colts but not dominant by any means. Trait is that he is really only just big and was thought of as being around the mid draft type of guy.

 

[Ochre]

I feel like the media is dropping the ball with puns regarding McStay leaving and FKASC needs to step in with some McLeave, McGone or McVacate sort of headlines.

If he didn't want to McStay, why did he bring his McLuggage?

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Yeah, this. I am not convinced he will be anything more than handy depth but if we give up pick 26 for him this year I think we'd be doing well. Whoever we grab at 26 this year if we do hold onto it has a high chance of being a bust.

Is this years draft crop really that bad that a mid 20's is going to be a long shot?

 

[dinnaz]

Is this years draft crop really that bad that a mid 20's is going to be a long shot?

Nah, there's opportunity there for good players. Depends if we try and outsmart ourselves like usual though

 

[Forward Press]

Is this years draft crop really that bad that a mid 20's is going to be a long shot?

Every draft year has possibilities of busts. Someone did the research before but something like half of all picked in the 20s don't make it to 100 games.

Edit: for all picks from 20 to 29 between 2006 and 2015 (draftees after 2016 are probably still too early to call as most are still active), these made it to the 100 game mark...

2006 - 4/10
2007 - 3/10
2008 - 7/10
2009 - 6/10
2010 - 6/10
2011 - 3/10
2012 - 3/10
2013 - 8/10
2014 - 2/10
2015 - 2/10

That's a strike rate of 44% in the 10 most recent drafts where you can probably make a fair call on their longevity. Of course pick 26 is always better than pick 38 or whatever but you aren't even more likely than not to get a long term player from a pick in that range.

 

[javaguice]

McStray

McArrivederci

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Rather relieved at that package from the AFL. Genuinely worried we were about to get *ed out of a top 3 pick.

The whole concept of giving clubs draft handouts like this needs to be scrapped. If a club has been at the bottom for a while then they have already been getting early picks in the draft. They don't need or deserve more assistance than that. North have been spooners or runner up spooners for 3 years in a row now. The draft picks that have gone with that are assistance enough. Not to mention the reality that even if we won 10 spoons in a row they AFL would not give us so much as a 5th round pick. This whole scheme is only available to financially struggling clubs like the Melbourne clubs outside the Big 4 there and the expansion clubs. We should be proposing and pushing for the whole think to be scrapped. Let the draft what it is designed to do already and even up the competition.

 

[dinnaz]

Every draft year has possibilities of busts. Someone did the research before but something like half of all picked in the 20s don't make it to 100 games.

Ever year there's a good 20 players from that cohort who will play 100 games. Taking out any injury plagued careers and other random events, it shows up how good/bad your recruiting department & list management is.

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Every draft year has possibilities of busts. Someone did the research before but something like half of all picked in the 20s don't make it to 100 games.

Edit: for all picks from 20 to 29 between 2006 and 2015 (draftees after 2016 are probably still too early to call as most are still active), these made it to the 100 game mark...

2006 - 4/10
2007 - 3/10
2008 - 7/10
2009 - 6/10
2010 - 6/10
2011 - 3/10
2012 - 3/10
2013 - 8/10
2014 - 2/10
2015 - 2/10

That's a strike rate of 44% in the 10 most recent drafts where you can probably make a fair call on their longevity. Of course pick 26 is always better than pick 38 or whatever but you aren't even more likely than not to get a long term player from a pick in that range.

Interesting. And i guess you could argue that even some players who get to 100 games are rubbish and only got there due to potential rather than performance. Like Petrevski Seton. Although i realise he wasn't a pick in the 20's.

What are the odds like for picks in the 30's then?

 

[briztoon]

Yeah, I ain’t reading 60 pages of catch-up over three threads.

Delisted anyone yet?

 

[Forward Press]

Interesting. And i guess you could argue that even some players who get to 100 games are rubbish and only got there due to potential rather than performance. Like Petrevski Seton. Although i realise he wasn't a pick in the 20's.

What are the odds like for picks in the 30's then?

For picks 30 to 39 from 2006 to 2015:

2006 - 3/10
2007 - 3/10
2008 - 6/10 (2008 clearly a decent year for the later picks, 12 of the top 13 also made it to 100 games)
2009 - 4/10
2010 - 3/10
2011 - 3/10
2012 - 1/10 (Kamdyn McIntosh, all others have now retired interestingly enough)
2013 - 3/10
2014 - 1/10 (Brayden Maynard, although Daniel Howe should get there next year)
2015 - 0/10 (although there are five active players that could stumble across the line within a few seasons)

27% although I probably should have dropped off 2014 and 2015 as both lists still have a fair amount of active players.

 

[Jootube]

Dev Robertson for a pick in the 20's (Port 2nd rounder) is a great trade for a bloke who would be good depth at worst and great upside.

We'd be silly not to enquire about Dev given Brisbane's need for draft capital (Dunkley+Ashcroft).

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

I don't know much about Robertson. I used to have a lot of faith in our recruiters. Yeo, Cripps, Hickey, Hutchings etc. They were great pick ups for what they cost us. But the recent debacles of Langdon, Witherden and SPS have somewhat dented my confidence in them.

 

[Forward Press]

I don't know much about Robertson. I used to have a lot of faith in our recruiters. Yeo, Cripps, Hickey, Hutchings etc. They were great pick ups for what they cost us. But the recent debacles of Langdon, Witherden and SPS have somewhat dented my confidence in them.

Kelly was a bigger mistake than all of those three - we paid peanuts for each of them. For what we gave up and what they had showed at GWS, Brisbane and Carlton respectively at the time, they were worth a punt, not like we gave a first rounder to get them over.

 

[plays tall 1]

Every draft year has possibilities of busts. Someone did the research before but something like half of all picked in the 20s don't make it to 100 games.

Edit: for all picks from 20 to 29 between 2006 and 2015 (draftees after 2016 are probably still too early to call as most are still active), these made it to the 100 game mark...

2006 - 4/10
2007 - 3/10
2008 - 7/10
2009 - 6/10
2010 - 6/10
2011 - 3/10
2012 - 3/10
2013 - 8/10
2014 - 2/10
2015 - 2/10

That's a strike rate of 44% in the 10 most recent drafts where you can probably make a fair call on their longevity. Of course pick 26 is always better than pick 38 or whatever but you aren't even more likely than not to get a long term player from a pick in that range.

Those figures are misleading. Draftees from 2014 and 2015 are too early to call as well.

2014 produced Jack Steele (at 24 and played 137 games) and Touk Miller (at 29 with 160 games). But Toby McLean (at 26) and Jayden Laverde (at 20) are both on 91 games and counting. So in all likelihood 4 players to play 100 games. Incidentally Brayden Maynard went at 30.

2015 produced Josh Dunkley (at 25 with 116 games) and Darcy Tucker (at 27 with 103 games). But Ben Keays (at 24 with 70 games and counting), Ben McKay (at 21 with 54 games and counting) and Brayden Fiorini (at 20 with 64 games and counting) look likely to hit the 100 game mark as well.

I haven’t checked the other years.

And what are the probabilities of recycled players playing 100 games at their new clubs?

 

[Shueygod]

This will be good…
Outside of possibly shuey who? Kelly- no, sheed- no, yeo- no.

You must be taking the piss.

Lyons 2021 average

28 disposals 6.5 tackles 5 marks 6 clearances 6 score involves 400m gained and 10 goals for the season

We spent a kings ransom on Kelly and they got lyons for free .

Yep was an astute pick up and had a good 2021, point is that Dev Robertson was getting picked after Matho, Robbo, and the traffic cone shell of Lyons that played this year.

He wasn’t being kept out by an A grade midfield.

 

[Forward Press]

Those figures are misleading. Draftees from 2014 and 2015 are too early to call as well.

2014 produced Jack Steele (at 24 and played 137 games) and Touk Miller (at 29 with 160 games). But Toby McLean (at 26) and Jayden Laverde (at 20) are both on 91 games and counting. So in all likelihood 4 players to play 100 games. Incidentally Brayden Maynard went at 30.

2015 produced Josh Dunkley (at 25 with 116 games) and Darcy Tucker (at 27 with 103 games). But Ben Keays (at 24 with 70 games and counting), Ben McKay (at 21 with 54 games and counting) and Brayden Fiorini (at 20 with 64 games and counting) look likely to hit the 100 game mark as well.

I haven’t checked the other years.

And what are the probabilities of recycled players playing 100 games at their new clubs?

27% although I probably should have dropped off 2014 and 2015 as both lists still have a fair amount of active players.

 

[Shueygod]

Imagine thinking Lyons has a better CV than Kelly and Yeo

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Kelly was a bigger mistake than all of those three - we paid peanuts for each of them. For what we gave up and what they had showed at GWS, Brisbane and Carlton respectively at the time, they were worth a punt, not like we gave a first rounder to get them over.

Kelly was a mistake. They got tunnel vision for him and couldn't bring themselves to be prepared to walk away from the table. I suspect had we not been in a flag window at the time they would have walked away. But they justified overpaying for him by thinking he could be the difference between another flag or not.

One of the tells is probably how upset the other club is that the player wants to go. Brisbane and St Kilda were gutted when Yeo and Cripps wanted to go. Wheras Langdon, Witherden and SPS were all basically pushed out the door and may have been delisted had we not traded for them. Assuming the other club is competent then they will always know more about the player you are trading for than you do. If they don't care the player is going then that is a red flag. And maybe you need to really think about if you have reason to believe you can add value to the player via your development program. And if they are desperate to sell him to you and are virtually begging you to buy him like Melbourne were with Hogan to Freo then than is about as red of a flag as you can get.

The Witherden and Langdon trades, even though they have not worked out for us, i can cop. But trading for SPS was a laughably bad call. The guy had already played nearly 100 games. You couldn't argue that there was any untapped potential there. By the time they have played 100 games you can clearly see what you are getting. There is no possibility of hidden potential at that point.

 

[briztoon]

You must be taking the piss.


Yep was an astute pick up and had a good 2021, point is that Dev Robertson was getting picked after Matho, Robbo, and the traffic cone shell of Lyons that played this year.

He wasn’t being kept out by an A grade midfield.

Nope, he was being kept out by a stubborn coach.

 

[ziad]

Kelly was a bigger mistake than all of those three - we paid peanuts for each of them. For what we gave up and what they had showed at GWS, Brisbane and Carlton respectively at the time, they were worth a punt, not like we gave a first rounder to get them over.

Our 4th best player?? and our only decent mid this year.

 

[plays tall 1]

[Forward Press said:
27% although I probably should have dropped off 2014 and 2015 as both lists still have a fair amount of active players.]

27% is for players drafted in the thirties isn’t it?

I guess it’s difficult to compile stats on recycled players but I’d be willing to bet that the percentage that play 100 games or more at the new club is substantially less than the figure for those drafted in the 20s (which appears to be a figure somewhere close to a 50/50 chance).

And even taking just the years 2014 and 2015 into account some genuine stars in Miller and Steele were drafted in the 20s, as well as a number of other very good players in Dunkley, McLean, Keays and McKay.

 

[Tugga27]

Nope, he was being kept out by a stubborn coach.

Or a smart one.

 

[Goroyals22]

Imagine thinking Lyons has a better CV than Kelly and Yeo

Lyons definitely has had a better career at this time than Kelly and a better career as a mid than Yeo…. Yeo hasnt played for three years for a start.

 

[Forward Press]

[Forward Press said:
27% although I probably should have dropped off 2014 and 2015 as both lists still have a fair amount of active players.]

27% is for players drafted in the thirties isn’t it?

I guess it’s difficult to compile stats on recycled players but I’d be willing to bet that the percentage that play 100 games or more at the new club is substantially less than the figure for those drafted in the 20s (which appears to be a figure somewhere close to a 50/50 chance).

And even taking just the years 2014 and 2015 into account some genuine stars in Miller and Steele were drafted in the 20s, as well as a number of other very good players in Dunkley, McLean, Keays and McKay.

Yeah when compiling the 20s and 30s list I then realised 2014 and 2015 are probably still too early, as I went through the active players.

Either way the point remains - less than half of those in the 20s and less than a third of those in the 30s make it to 100 games. And I am not sure Robertson can be one of those recycled players that makes it to 3 figures.