List Mgmt. Contracts. Trades. Draft. 2021 Edition

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The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

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[AsterixTheGaul]

I expect us to hear close to nothing prior to draft night. We have never forecast our hand, so silence means business as usual.

Will we trade on the night? Probably not. But I expect we have options already negotiated.

What do we have in current picks and future picks?

Current 2020 - 62, 86, 91 which are likely to come in by 15 to 20 places with Dogs/Pies/Swans loaded up for points. That means 1 and possibly 2 players for the main list. Pick 62 only has 123 points so will not be of great value.

Future 2021
Eagles R1 - we will have to use it
Eagles R2 - likely to be a early to mid 30 pick points around 500 points
Port R2 - likely to be a early to mid 30 pick points around 500 points
Swans R3 - likely to be a early to mid 40 pick points around 350 points

If there is someone there at the GWS pick 26 or Suns pick 27, I can see us dealing 62 with a future R2 or we might even get away with just a future R2 given the issues in this year's draft. There could be others.

I still see some value at the pick 26 to 27 but am not holding any expectations.

Alternatively - we have 4 very good picks for next year and see what drops at our later picks this year.

 

[campaigner___]

I expect us to hear close to nothing prior to draft night. We have never forecast our hand, so silence means business as usual.

Will we trade on the night? Probably not. But I expect we have options already negotiated.

What do we have in current picks and future picks?

Current 2020 - 62, 86, 91 which are likely to come in by 15 to 20 places with Dogs/Pies/Swans loaded up for points. That means 1 and possibly 2 players for the main list. Pick 62 only has 123 points so will not be of great value.

Future 2021
Eagles R1 - we will have to use it
Eagles R2 - likely to be a early to mid 30 pick points around 500 points
Port R2 - likely to be a early to mid 30 pick points around 500 points
Swans R3 - likely to be a early to mid 40 pick points around 350 points

If there is someone there at the GWS pick 26 or Suns pick 27, I can see us dealing 62 with a future R2 or we might even get away with just a future R2 given the issues in this year's draft. There could be others.

I still see some value at the pick 26 to 27 but am not holding any expectations.

Alternatively - we have 4 very good picks for next year and see what drops at our later picks this year.

I think Trew and/or Winder will be around the 25 mark. Both would be good gets.

 

[DanWCE]

Rookie draft is the day after, on the 10th

Thanks. The article I read was actually referencing the supplementary draft being scrapped this season. But instead of saying that they said the rookie draft was scrapped this year due to no exposure to those trying to get drafted.

 

[dewcefault]

Pick 62 only has 123 points so will not be of great value.

If the Dogs use 6 picks and our pick 62 becomes 56 after they match, does it take on the points value of pick 56? If so, it'll grow in points value reasonably quickly although potentially too late for us to ontrade it for points value.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

If the Dogs use 6 picks and our pick 62 becomes 56 after they match, does it take on the points value of pick 56? If so, it'll grow in points value reasonably quickly although potentially too late for us to ontrade it for points value.

I believe it is the original points as at the start of the draft

 

[dewcefault]

I believe it is the original points as at the start of the draft

Ok, well that simplifies things but unfortunately not as useful for us

 

[Suma Magic]

Looks like Geelong is going to trade Melbourne's future third for pick 27 from Gold Coast.

As it's a reasonable assumption that our sydney third rounder would be more valuable, this says that we weren't willing to give it up for pick 27. Which is pretty interesting.

I believe it is the original points as at the start of the draft

I think the value of picks change as they move. Otherwise you could have a situation where the pick you are matching with, is worth more than the pick where the bid is made (before the discount).

 

[squashface]

Looks like Geelong is going to trade Melbourne's future third for pick 27 from Gold Coast.

As it's a reasonable assumption that our sydney third rounder would be more valuable, this says that we weren't willing to give it up for pick 27. Which is pretty interesting.



I think the value of picks change as they move. Otherwise you could have a situation where the pick you are matching with, is worth more than the pick where the bid is made (before the discount).

Seems pretty clear that the club has no interest in having a presence in this draft and would rather bank next years picks and potentially nab a slider this year

 

[Suma Magic]

Seems pretty clear that the club has no interest in having a presence in this draft and would rather bank next years picks and potentially nab a slider this year

Yeah, or just not willing to trade for a pick, only for a player.

 

[Suma Magic]

The fact that you can get pick 27 (might end up mid 30s) with a future third shows that this draft is absolute trash.

 

[mattyc75]

When does it stop being called the rookie list and start being called the place we'll put you til we can delist you list?
Also what happened to liam ryams bro/cousin?get him on our list

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[Goldfish]

The fact that you can get pick 27 (might end up mid 30s) with a future third shows that this draft is absolute trash.

It's just a chook lotto with no exposed form. I guarantee kids who would have been picked top 40 in a normal year don't even get a look in, which is why the 2021 draft looks so promising. Another year of development plus the additional kids coming through the 2021 crop.

 

[Chris_6678]

It is an interesting position we are in.

Some clubs are going to pick players that could be rubbish from lack of vision in the top 30-40 but with that could easily be a very good slider that WC might be interested in.

Barely been keeping up with the draft this year with our lack of picks. Have we been even remotely linked to anyone? All the phantom drafts i have read have been up to the first 3 rounds.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

The fact that you can get pick 27 (might end up mid 30s) with a future third shows that this draft is absolute trash.

Not with on on "Trash". What is defining the draft is that there is a lack of 2020 evidence. There is therefore far more risk as the recruiters have not been able to witness the normal draft year development.

The actual strength of a draft cohort will take at least 3 years to determine.

There again, on what criteria should we call a strength of draft?
1. Top 10 - then this draft looks good
2. Top 20 - there are too many question marks on what has happened with the Vic boys
3. Gems still there at R3 - this is where there will be decent pickings as you can back in the work done on U16 talent.
4. Lots of everything - if you recall 2016 was considered weak because it had few talls. 2020 has really good talls in the first round.

The Suns have been spoiled with concessions and options for their NGA so have a very different valuation on picks than the other clubs.

 

[Suma Magic]

Not with on on "Trash". What is defining the draft is that there is a lack of 2020 evidence. There is therefore far more risk as the recruiters have not been able to witness the normal draft year development.

The actual strength of a draft cohort will take at least 3 years to determine.

There again, on what criteria should we call a strength of draft?
1. Top 10 - then this draft looks good
2. Top 20 - there are too many question marks on what has happened with the Vic boys
3. Gems still there at R3 - this is where there will be decent pickings as you can back in the work done on U16 talent.
4. Lots of everything - if you recall 2016 was considered weak because it had few talls. 2020 has really good talls in the first round.

The Suns have been spoiled with concessions and options for their NGA so have a very different valuation on picks than the other clubs.

Yeah, I was only half serious.

But if the best offer they could get for pick 27 (which might be around 34ish live) was a pick expected to be around 45 next year, it just shows how all clubs value the two drafts relative to each other.

The cutting of lists this year probably also contributes.

I agree that this year is more about uncertainty than being bad.

 

[ep2018]

Suns weren't using the pick, and Geelong swooped in. Pretty disappointing imo, we should have offered Sydney's future 3rd.

 

[campaigner___]

Not with on on "Trash". What is defining the draft is that there is a lack of 2020 evidence. There is therefore far more risk as the recruiters have not been able to witness the normal draft year development.

The actual strength of a draft cohort will take at least 3 years to determine.

There again, on what criteria should we call a strength of draft?
1. Top 10 - then this draft looks good
2. Top 20 - there are too many question marks on what has happened with the Vic boys
3. Gems still there at R3 - this is where there will be decent pickings as you can back in the work done on U16 talent.
4. Lots of everything - if you recall 2016 was considered weak because it had few talls. 2020 has really good talls in the first round.

The Suns have been spoiled with concessions and options for their NGA so have a very different valuation on picks than the other clubs.

I agree. This year's top 10-15 look as good as any other seasons IMO. McDonald is an absolute weapon. I can't recall watching an 18 year old dominate WAFL as much as he did this season.

 

[MrWoollie]

The Suns have been spoiled with concessions and options for their NGA so have a very different valuation on picks than the other clubs.

I am just so annoyed at the concession factory that is GCS.
In 2019 they had 3 x top 10 picks, who all look absolute guns. Despite knowing that they had these guns that just needed a couple of years to mature and pick 1 in 2020, the AFL gifted them pick 2 as well. Another pair of guns. And again, with just a bit of time needed, the AFL then decided to give them a whole bunch of favoritism in how the Academy player picks are treated.

That's more top 10 picks than WC have had this century, and despite doing more to actually identify and work with remote kids, we get no favours regarding the NGA either.

 

[AsterixTheGaul]

The fact that you can get pick 27 (might end up mid 30s) with a future third shows that this draft is absolute trash.

More like

 

[Suma Magic]

More like

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I’m aware they had to trade it. The best offer from all 17 clubs was Melbourne’s future third.

It’s lower than I thought it would be, and it does show how teams rate 2021 picks compared to 2020 picks.

 

[ziad]

When does it stop being called the rookie list and start being called the place we'll put you til we can delist you list?
Also what happened to liam ryams bro/cousin?get him on our list

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

Could be renamed the Dean Cox

Dean Cox

Age

43

Ht

203cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

list.

 

[Dark Sharks]

Jesus, Fold Coast is at it again.


If the morons weren't going to use that pick, surely they could've shopped it around a bit and gotten a better deal than a future 3rd from this years grand final team.

I mean they probably did shop it, but I wouldn't put it past them accepting the first offer that came either.


10 bucks says they don't even use the future 3rd next year anyway, and they've essentially given away pick 27 this year for literally nothing.

 

[RanaNaved]

Could be renamed the Dean Cox

Dean Cox

Age

43

Ht

203cm

Wt

107kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.9

4star

K

8.9

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

5.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

5.8

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.0

1star

list.

Or McGovern.

Remarkable to get two generational talents like that in the RD.

 

[Schtinker]

Jesus, Fold Coast is at it again.


If the morons weren't going to use that pick, surely they could've shopped it around a bit and gotten a better deal than a future 3rd from this years grand final team.

I mean they probably did shop it, but I wouldn't put it past them accepting the first offer that came either.


10 bucks says they don't even use the future 3rd next year anyway, and they've essentially given away pick 27 this year for literally nothing.

All the more reason we should have had a crack but our recruiting staff were too slow.

 

[JackOutback]

It's just a chook lotto with no exposed form. I guarantee kids who would have been picked top 40 in a normal year don't even get a look in, which is why the 2021 draft looks so promising. Another year of development plus the additional kids coming through the 2021 crop.

The amount of talent on offer is surely pretty much the same as every other year, it's just clubs don't have the evidence to narrow down their choices. You could potentially pick up a genuine jet later in the draft, but you could equally bag a dud. It's risk and reward and most clubs seem to be opting for caution.