List Mgmt. Contracts, trades, draft - 2022 superstar edition

[Keys]

Link to contract status of all players -

The Contracts Thread

2024 List Changes : Out: Retired- Gaff Delisted - Jones, Trew(R), Baker(R), Witherden, Burgiel, Culley(R), Rotham, L Edwards Traded - Darling (NM) Barrass (Hawthorn) In: Trade/FA acquisitions - Graham (Richmond) Baker (Richmond) Owies (Carlton) Draft - Allan (Pick 16) Shanahan (Pick 30) Gross...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[briztoon]

Every club rates players differently.

No club bar Freo had Brayshaw in the top four in 2016(?), the broad consensus was that the top four were Rayner, Dow, Cerra and LDU.

If we rate Hewett higher than other clubs and we’d take him at 3 or 6, why wouldn’t we back ourselves?

Not true. It was well known we had narrowed our top two down to Rayner and Brayshaw.

That came out during the draft combine.

 

[sey666]

Knightmare just put out this video where he rails against picking key forwards at the top of the draft over ball winning midfielders. My conclusion is that Knightmare and Chump Change are the same person using multiple accounts. You heard it here first.

View attachment 1442055

Agree. Chump Change is certainly a reader's nightmare knightmare.

 

[Chump Change]

Knightmare just put out this video where he rails against picking key forwards at the top of the draft over ball winning midfielders. My conclusion is that Knightmare and Chump Change are the same person using multiple accounts. You heard it here first.

Yeah, it's not me. I don't use Serifs. I'm Calibri all the way.

He's just stating the obvious. I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up before, but the average footy media guy is on a weekly cycle and they don't talk about this stuff.

 

[FKASC]

Probably because the media loves the idea of big alpha key forwards being number 1 picks. Very easy to hype up a huge goal kicker compared with an accumulator

 

[Chump Change]

Probably because the media loves the idea of big alpha key forwards being number 1 picks. Very easy to hype up a huge goal kicker compared with an accumulator

I think it's because a gun KPF is rare as hen's teeth and a good one can go a long way towards a flag. But they're so hard to pick the right ones.

 

[SumaGodCoach]

Yeah, it's not me. I don't use Serifs. I'm Calibri all the way.

He's just stating the obvious. I'm surprised it hasn't been brought up before, but the average footy media guy is on a weekly cycle and they don't talk about this stuff.

I had you pegged as a Times New Roman kinda guy. Over the last 10+ years picking talls in both the AFL and NBA has had a much higher rate of variance and higher bust potential. So as you say this really isn't ground breaking stuff.

 

[tigger_ferret]

Apparently they’re the example we should be following in how to build a premiership list, because they didn’t trade away top picks. Except the times when they did.

I hate to be arguing for Chump Change on this but, 2013 was the year the AFL brought in Roos for Melbourne and I would say the 13 draft was the last remaining cluster**** of the old regime.

So I would suggest the core of the Premiership Melbourne team was built after ‘13, by bringing in the likes of Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver with their top picks

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

Although I don’t rate Knightmare myself, I do respect how he backs himself in when it comes to his ‘power ratings’ even if they are very different to other ‘expert’ rankings (see Avery last year for example).

That said, I do agree we should go for best available midfielder given our needs. Hopefully Warlord, but there are definitely options outside of him.

The thing with his power rankings is they are not a phantom draft they are a form guide of sorts . You play well for a month you can make top 10-20 is his power rankings because you are in the top 10-20 in form players .

Also if you have a month of shocker you can be out just as quick .

 

[Scotland]

We too can be as good as Melbourne if we are historically awful for a decade.

The AFL gave them two first round picks for Tom Scully

21

Tom Scully

Age

33

Ht

181cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.7

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

12.6

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

5.1

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.1

2star

CL

0.8

3star

D

19.8

5star

K

8.8

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

3.8

5star

going to GWS, which helped get them Jesse Hogan

23

Jesse Hogan

Age

29

Ht

196cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.0

4star

K

9.3

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.4

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

4.3

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

0.0

1star

G

0.0

1star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

6.4

5star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

who helped get them Steven May

1

Steven May

Age

33

Ht

193cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

4.2

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

307.3

4star

D

15.5

4star

K

12.1

5star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

0.5

1star

MG

378.4

5star

D

12.4

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

.
Despite having picks 3, 4, 14 the AFL allowed them to take Jack Viney

7

Jack Viney

Age

30

Ht

179cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.1

5star

K

9.4

4star

HB

12.6

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

5.7

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

21.8

5star

K

10.3

4star

HB

11.5

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

13.4

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

(F/S selected at 7) at pick 26.
When James Frawley

24

James Frawley

Age

36

Ht

193cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.2

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

5.1

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.9

4star

MG

135.4

2star

D

8.7

2star

K

6.0

2star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.9

2star

MG

135.4

2star

D

9.0

3star

K

4.0

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.2

3star

left as a free agent the AFL gave them pick 3 (Brayshaw).
And of course bought them a coach, instilled a new CEO etc.

People get way too excited about how good Melbourne are forget just how bad they were and that the AFL pretty much fixed everything for them.

 

[Obeanie1]

Way too much uncertainty for me. We need to take (who we think is) the best midfielder at 3. If on the day it turns out someone wants our pick and we can still get our man by sliding back, sure. Otherwise, choose our man and take him.

You are uncertain but are then willing to just throw a pick 2 'dart' and pray and hope it works out?

I hope before draft day some clear cut top 3 emerge because right now its pretty vague.

 

[WCE_phil]

Yeah, I agree with all of that. I'm just not sure Madden is that good a test, as he also can't leap like you said. Barnett is pretty athletic so I think that game will tell us a lot.

I was also super impressed with Broadbents game vs Pies VFL. So it might've been a one off.

I actually quite liked Barnetts last game, showed a bit more. Previous games I didn't think he did much. Knobel super raw long term prospect, but definitely something there and clearly must dominant tap ruck.

From what i've seen this year the Academy game has been Broadbent's only good one.

I still like the idea of Barnett for one of our seconds and I know Monocle mentioned him above but i've also said before for a late pick (preferably a rookie pick) I'd pick Knobel on the athletic profile, size and see how he develops for a couple of years. He's super raw but there is genuine AFL talent there.

 

[Chump Change]

You are uncertain but are then willing to just throw a pick 2 'dart' and pray and hope it works out?

Correct. Pick 2 has a bigger dart board. And you're more likely to win the prize from the top shelf.

 

[eagles rule]

mm

Way too much uncertainty for me. We need to take (who we think is) the best midfielder at 3. If on the day it turns out someone wants our pick and we can still get our man by sliding back, sure. Otherwise, choose our man and take him.

Agree it`s probably better to just take the guy you want, who you rated as the best available ..

The example of Andrew Brayshaw was tipped to go at Pick 5 or 6 but Freo wasn`t having none of that and jumped in at Pick 2 ..

 

[Obeanie1]

Correct. Pick 2 has a bigger dart board. And you're more likely to win the prize from the top shelf.

Actually only have one shot narrrows any chances. In an uncertain, moving, fluctuating draft pool.

And applying averages doesnt work. It doesnt. Its simplistic to think they do because you arent considering all the relevant factors that matter. And you arent.

You also incorrectly assume every 'dart board' is the same. It isnt.

 

[Obeanie1]

mm


Agree it`s probably better to just take the guy you want, who you rated as the best available ..

The example of Andrew Brayshaw was tipped to go at Pick 5 or 6 but Freo wasn`t having none of that and jumped in at Pick 2 ..

Would you take Andrew Brayshaw for pick 2

Or be just as happy with Cerra 5 and Tim Kelly 24 after splitting pick 2?

 

[Deplorable trumpster]

Would you take Andrew Brayshaw for pick 2

Or be just as happy with Cerra 5 and Tim Kelly 24 after splitting pick 2?

I don't totally understand what you are saying.

Are you arguing that the position of your draft pick doesn't matter, i.e. pick 3 is no more valuable than pick 8, and backing that up by cherry picking from a very narrow handful of players taken at later draft picks from previous drafts that turned out to be A graders as examples of why draft position doesn't matter because there is always a good player left somewhere in the draft no matter where your pick is?

 

[Lazzas]

We too can be as good as Melbourne if we are historically awful for a decade.

The AFL gave them two first round picks for Tom Scully going to GWS, which helped get them Jesse Hogan who helped get them Steven May.
Despite having picks 3, 4, 14 the AFL allowed them to take Jack Viney (F/S selected at 7) at pick 26.
When James Frawley left as a free agent the AFL gave them pick 3 (Brayshaw).
And of course bought them a coach, instilled a new CEO etc.

People get way too excited about how good Melbourne are forget just how bad they were and that the AFL pretty much fixed everything for them.

Yes and gave them armchair rides with multiple home games leading into the finals.

Even during the Covid hub period they parked the bus at Brisbane while most other teams traveled around.

 

[Chump Change]

Actually only have one shot narrrows any chances. In an uncertain, moving, fluctuating draft pool.

And applying averages doesnt work. It doesnt. Its simplistic to think they do because you arent considering all the relevant factors that matter. And you arent.

You also incorrectly assume every 'dart board' is the same. It isnt.

How do you think Richmond and Melbourne built their flag teams?

 

[Chump Change]

Would you take Andrew Brayshaw for pick 2

Or be just as happy with Cerra 5 and Tim Kelly 24 after splitting pick 2?

Come on bro, that's laughable.

It's easy in hindsight to go pick 2 players who are guns. But have a look at the percentages:

Let's assume you get Cerra correct. There are 19 players between he and Kelly.

Approx 50% are busts.
4 are guns (Naughton, Bailey, OA, Kelly).

You have a 20% chance of getting a good player. From draft to draft that percentage is not going to vary by much.

Pulling out 2 good players as if any club is going to be able to guess correctly is simply laughable. It's not based on reality.

Cameron Rayner
Andrew Brayshaw
Paddy Dow
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Adam Cerra
Jaidyn Stephenson
Hunter Clark
Nick Coffield
Aaron Naughton
Lochie O'Brien
Aiden Bonar
Darcy Fogarty
Jarrod Brander
Matthew Ling
Zac Bailey
Ed Richards
Jack Higgins
Brandon Starcevich
Wil Powell
Callum Coleman-Jones
Oscar Allen
Lachie Fogarty
Will Walker
Tim Kelly

​

 

[Scotland]

Yes and gave them armchair rides with multiple home games leading into the finals.

Even during the Covid hub period they parked the bus at Brisbane while most other teams traveled around.

No idea what you are on about here.

They won the flag last year without playing a single final in Victoria. Hardly an advantage.

 

[Chump Change]

Not that it matters but

Brayshaw

v

Cerra + Kelly

I'll take Brayshaw.

 

[mattyc75]

Although I don’t rate Knightmare myself, I do respect how he backs himself in when it comes to his ‘power ratings’ even if they are very different to other ‘expert’ rankings (see Avery last year for example).

That said, I do agree we should go for best available midfielder given our needs. Hopefully Warlord, but there are definitely options outside of him.

He watches a lot,claims he doesnt look at any other mock drafts then loves saying how he's the only one who has such n such higher than anyone else
Usually he brings his back in line with everyone else close to the draft

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[mattyc75]

I reckon we'll take hewitt

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[maverick001]

I sort of agree but it does concern me that we've gotten to the point where Dockers are a preferred destination over us

 

[maverick001]

Every club rates players differently.

No club bar Freo had Brayshaw in the top four in 2016(?), the broad consensus was that the top four were Rayner, Dow, Cerra and LDU.

If we rate Hewett higher than other clubs and we’d take him at 3 or 6, why wouldn’t we back ourselves?

Yep I was just thinking the other day it was a big call and the Dockers nailed that pick given nobody else seemed to have him that high - except probably Cal a week before draft day when he'd sussed out what was happening