Draft Expert Davo-27's 2024 Draft Thread

[botts]

Davo what your opinion on Lennox Hofmann? 3rd overall in the 20m sprint. 191cm and I can’t remember seeing him play a bad game. Where do you think he lands draft night?

 

[Davo-27]

Davo what your opinion on Lennox Hofmann? 3rd overall in the 20m sprint. 191cm and I can’t remember seeing him play a bad game. Where do you think he lands draft night?

Could go anywhere from 30 onwards, likely to be taken in the draft, that's what I would guess.

 

[Davo-27]

Not bad but I think Richmond go for a few talls with the haul.

Stumpf is 1, maybe you go for Trainor KPD, Dodson a ruck or Sims his Northern Knights team mate?

Will cry if we draft Allen, did nothing special in the WAFL

I had you take Allan to spite WCE lol because they are keen with the next pick

And I can’t imagine the Dogs taking one.

I had trouble with your pick and I admit to just giving you guys best available

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Stumpf is 1, maybe you go for Trainor KPD, Dodson a ruck or Sims his Northern Knights team mate?

I had you take Allan to spite WCE lol because they are keen with the next pick

I had trouble with your pick and I admit to just giving you guys best available

If Trainor is there at our pick (assuming we don’t just tell Geelong to GGF) I think he’d be hard to pass up. I’d be surprised if he drops all that way but I can also see why you think he might based on the picks above him. Gee it’s an interesting draft - suspect pick swaps aplenty when people fall down the order.

 

[Howzat1]

Lalor seems to be coming for pick 1 with a head of steam. Thoughts?

Absolutely. Lalor is most likely number 1

 

[hawkinoz]

Just having a guess as to what round 1 might look like before the last day of trading

Phantom Draft

1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - (bid) Ashcroft
3. NM - J.Smith
4. Carl - FOS
5. Adel - Draper
6. Ess - (bid) Kako
7. Melb - Smillie
8. GCS - (bid) Lombard
9. Rich - Langford
10. StK - Armstrong
11. StK - M.Reid
12. Melb - Tauru
13. Rich - Berry
14. Frem - Bo Allan
15. WCE - Travaglia
16. Port - Gerreyn
17. Rich - Lindsay
18. Carl - (bid) B.Camporeale
19. GWS - Hotton
20. GWS - Ough
21. WB - Trainor
22. Rich - Hynes
23. Syd - Shanahan
24. Bris - (bid) Marshall
25. Rich - Stumpf

Can you pls do another phantom with the new uodated order, wondering what would be the talent available for Hawks pick.
I feel like we will target for a KPF.

 

[FB19]

Can you pls do another phantom with the new uodated order, wondering what would be the talent available for Hawks pick.
I feel like we will target for a KPF.

Yeah the lack of an f3 whilst it looks like nothing actually hurts. We need one to trade blues f1 plus 33 to get something like 20 from tigers or 22 from swans. Maybe 33 and f1 for 22 and f3 and then take Jobe Shanahan or Gerreyn.

 

[blueiris]

Just having a guess as to what round 1 might look like before the last day of trading

Phantom Draft

1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - (bid) Ashcroft
3. NM - J.Smith
4. Carl - FOS
5. Adel - Draper
6. Ess - (bid) Kako
7. Melb - Smillie
8. GCS - (bid) Lombard
9. Rich - Langford
10. StK - Armstrong
11. StK - M.Reid
12. Melb - Tauru
13. Rich - Berry
14. Frem - Bo Allan
15. WCE - Travaglia
16. Port - Gerreyn
17. Rich - Lindsay
18. Carl - (bid) B.Camporeale
19. GWS - Hotton
20. GWS - Ough
21. WB - Trainor
22. Rich - Hynes
23. Syd - Shanahan
24. Bris - (bid) Marshall
25. Rich - Stumpf

Do you really believe Campo goes that high he's currently not rated in the top 30 by the experts

 

[bulldogs201616]

Hey Davo what's your thoughts on Cooper Hynes. Would love the dogs to pick him up with pick 17 is there a reason he hasn't made his way up on anyone's draft boards? 190 cm and kicks goals

 

[sufficientintent]

Just having a guess as to what round 1 might look like before the last day of trading

Phantom Draft

1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - (bid) Ashcroft
3. NM - J.Smith
4. Carl - FOS
5. Adel - Draper
6. Ess - (bid) Kako
7. Melb - Smillie
8. GCS - (bid) Lombard
9. Rich - Langford
10. StK - Armstrong
11. StK - M.Reid
12. Melb - Tauru
13. Rich - Berry
14. Frem - Bo Allan
15. WCE - Travaglia
16. Port - Gerreyn
17. Rich - Lindsay
18. Carl - (bid) B.Camporeale
19. GWS - Hotton
20. GWS - Ough
21. WB - Trainor
22. Rich - Hynes
23. Syd - Shanahan
24. Bris - (bid) Marshall
25. Rich - Stumpf

Would love you to update this now trading is done Davo, but I don't see why we would take an Armstrong/Reid combo. We need midfield strength and extractors, not a KPF like Armstrong. Reid is also a maybe - I don't love how his best trait is "creativity" when we need big bodies to help Steele, but I can see us taking him. Tauru if still on the board would be a better choice than Armstrong, we need someone to replace Battle next year, Howard/Cordy in the future or for an injury to Wilkie.

If picks 1-9 land like your prediction here, my guess is that we take Lindsay (or Reid) and then we'll either take Tauru or we'll sell pick 11 to the highest bidder (maybe a slide to GWS' picks to take Hotton/Hynes).

 

[The Talent Scout]

Would love you to update this now trading is done Davo, but I don't see why we would take an Armstrong/Reid combo. We need midfield strength and extractors, not a KPF like Armstrong. Reid is also a maybe - I don't love how his best trait is "creativity" when we need big bodies to help Steele, but I can see us taking him. Tauru if still on the board would be a better choice than Armstrong, we need someone to replace Battle next year, Howard/Cordy in the future or for an injury to Wilkie.

If picks 1-9 land like your prediction here, my guess is that we take Lindsay (or Reid) and then we'll either take Tauru or we'll sell pick 11 to the highest bidder (maybe a slide to GWS' picks to take Hotton/Hynes).

What St Kilda need is a star midfielder, an elite player and guess what, you can finally get that gun mid that replaces Jack Steele by trading up with us for pick 2 and apart from who the tigers take, you will have five choices to pick your star. Now before you say its an even draft, it is, after pick 6 in the open draft, St Kilda, Melbourne and the tigers are in a unique situation in this draft, but in different scenario's. St Kilda and Melbourne can get their gun midfielder of their choice or get two good players in this strong draft, with Melbourne, Trac may or may not get back to his best and then there is the question of does he stay? Oliver the same question but highly likely he's gone next year, here is their chance to get a star midfielder.

Richmond a little bit different because with pick #1 they will get one of the elite six, and with their other picks they can trade one or two into next year to strengthen their hand yet again or go for the jugular and get the two top midfielders on their whiteboard and they can get their key forward after they take the two star midfielders and a couple of other selections to go for need. Carlton have done this very same strategy, and its not a surprise, like a lot of supporters the "why would you do it, in an even draft"? They have pretty much answered that question in a heartbeat, to get their star midfielder.

 

[sufficientintent]

What St Kilda need is a star midfielder, an elite player and guess what, you can finally get that gun mid that replaces Jack Steele by trading up with us for pick 2 and apart from who the tigers take, you will have five choices to pick your star. Now before you say its an even draft, it is, after pick 6 in the open draft, St Kilda, Melbourne and the tigers are in a unique situation in this draft, but in different scenario's. St Kilda and Melbourne can get their gun midfielder of their choice or get two good players in this strong draft, with Melbourne, Trac may or may not get back to his best and then there is the question of does he stay? Oliver the same question but highly likely he's gone next year, here is their chance to get a star midfielder.

Richmond a little bit different because with pick #1 they will get one of the elite six, and with their other picks they can trade one or two into next year to strengthen their hand yet again or go for the jugular and get the two top midfielders on their whiteboard and they can get their key forward after they take the two star midfielders and a couple of other selections to go for need. Carlton have done this very same strategy, and its not a surprise, like a lot of supporters the "why would you do it, in an even draft"? They have pretty much answered that question in a heartbeat, to get their star midfielder.

What St Kilda offer would North accept for pick 2? Would've thought it would be 7+F1 at a minimum, and unlikely to trump a potential 6+10/11/18 from Richmond

 

[Crow till I die]

What St Kilda offer would North accept for pick 2? Would've thought it would be 7+F1 at a minimum, and unlikely to trump a potential 6+10/11/18 from Richmond

Why would you want to move from 7 & 8..thats maybe a Langford and Travaglia in this draft and thats gold...and what if Smillie slid a couple of places. I would be holding where you are if it was me.

 

[sufficientintent]

Why would you want to move from 7 & 8..thats maybe a Langford and Travaglia in this draft and thats gold...and what if Smillie slid a couple of places. I would be holding where you are if it was me.

Because there is a clear top 6 midfield group and that's our biggest need. Jumping up to pick 2 would get us basically our pick of an elite mid, and we could retain 8 for Langford (or if another mid slides), or take Travaglia, Tauru, Lindsay, etc depending on our strategy. If we don't go up we're likely to get Smillie (maybe another slider), but that's not a guarantee, doesn't prevent another club from jumping in ahead of us, and Smillie might not be the guy from our recruiting team's perspective.

We'd also prefer to take a mid THIS year instead of next year because a) compromised 2025 draft and b) to accelerate their development to have a half decent midfield group as fast as possible (as opposed to the current situation being the worst or second worst midfield in the comp), so we should be open to trading our F1

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Because there is a clear top 6 midfield group and that's our biggest need. Jumping up to pick 2 would get us basically our pick of an elite mid, and we could retain 8 for Langford (or if another mid slides), or take Travaglia, Tauru, Lindsay, etc depending on our strategy. If we don't go up we're likely to get Smillie (maybe another slider), but that's not a guarantee, doesn't prevent another club from jumping in ahead of us, and Smillie might not be the guy from our recruiting team's perspective.

We'd also prefer to take a mid THIS year instead of next year because a) compromised 2025 draft and b) to accelerate their development to have a half decent midfield group as fast as possible (as opposed to the current situation being the worst or second worst midfield in the comp), so we should be open to trading our F1

On that argument (and I agree with you) North would want 7 and 8 for 2 and a F2. I can’t see anyway that you keep 7 and 8 and North would accept the F1 largely because (as you point out) 2025 is compromised and 2 is in a great spot this year. Unless North go all West Coast which is very very unlikely.

I don’t think it’s the right outcome for the Saints .

 

[The Talent Scout]

What St Kilda offer would North accept for pick 2? Would've thought it would be 7+F1 at a minimum, and unlikely to trump a potential 6+10/11/18 from Richmond

Its hard to say at this point but I'm guessing our offer might be something like this:
North out: pick 2 and a future 2nd rounder
North in: picks 7 & 8
St Kilda out; picks 7 & 8
St Kilda in: pick 2 and a future 2nd rounder

 

[sufficientintent]

On that argument (and I agree with you) North would want 7 and 8 for 2 and a F2. I can’t see anyway that you keep 7 and 8 and North would accept the F1 largely because (as you point out) 2025 is compromised and 2 is in a great spot this year. Unless North go all West Coast which is very very unlikely.

I don’t think it’s the right outcome for the Saints .

100% fair. The only reason North have an incentive to trade down is because it would be a waste to take a KPP at 2. They know that they can slide to 6-9 and still get the player they want as well as another excellent pick, so they don't have a huge need to be offered a really really good deal in order to trade back.

However, I can't see us offering a better deal than Richmond in any case, and knowing us we will just be used by North as leverage so that they can get a better deal.

2 + F2 for 6 + 10/11/18 makes heaps of sense for both North and Richmond, and 2 + F2 for 7 + 8 doesn't really work for us

 

[Crow till I die]

Because there is a clear top 6 midfield group and that's our biggest need. Jumping up to pick 2 would get us basically our pick of an elite mid, and we could retain 8 for Langford (or if another mid slides), or take Travaglia, Tauru, Lindsay, etc depending on our strategy. If we don't go up we're likely to get Smillie (maybe another slider), but that's not a guarantee, doesn't prevent another club from jumping in ahead of us, and Smillie might not be the guy from our recruiting team's perspective.

We'd also prefer to take a mid THIS year instead of next year because a) compromised 2025 draft and b) to accelerate their development to have a half decent midfield group as fast as possible (as opposed to the current situation being the worst or second worst midfield in the comp), so we should be open to trading our F1

Fair enough, i love that we have pick 4 but if the saints came knocking with both 7 & 8 for 4 and an f2 (we don't have one yet but i am guessing we will trade for one), i'd be all over it personally.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Would 10, 18 or 20 and 24 and a F2 get pick 2 done?

Leaves Richmond with an elite group of picks and north could do a lot with that given the good talls are likely to fall in that range.

Tauru at 10 and Shanahan and Trainor could easily fall into the 20’s. Depends what the inside word looks like closer to the draft but I could see that as a win win for these clubs.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Why would you want to move from 7 & 8..thats maybe a Langford and Travaglia in this draft and thats gold...and what if Smillie slid a couple of places. I would be holding where you are if it was me.

Its interesting isn't it? From my point of view what you suggested is very good and they may indeed go that way, its probably not gold, silver yes, gold is that top six and taking who you want opposed to HOPING someone slides. Why would they do it? To get their star midfielder that they need and more importantly to have the choice of the six elite midfielders or should I say five.

 

[the big lebowski]

100% fair. The only reason North have an incentive to trade down is because it would be a waste to take a KPP at 2. They know that they can slide to 6-9 and still get the player they want as well as another excellent pick, so they don't have a huge need to be offered a really really good deal in order to trade back.

However, I can't see us offering a better deal than Richmond in any case, and knowing us we will just be used by North as leverage so that they can get a better deal.

2 + F2 for 6 + 10/11/18 makes heaps of sense for both North and Richmond, and 2 + F2 for 7 + 8 doesn't really work for us

And you can’t see a world where the saints would be interested in 8 for norths F1?

 

[pupstar]

Because there is a clear top 6 midfield group and that's our biggest need. Jumping up to pick 2 would get us basically our pick of an elite mid, and we could retain 8 for Langford (or if another mid slides), or take Travaglia, Tauru, Lindsay, etc depending on our strategy. If we don't go up we're likely to get Smillie (maybe another slider), but that's not a guarantee, doesn't prevent another club from jumping in ahead of us, and Smillie might not be the guy from our recruiting team's perspective.

We'd also prefer to take a mid THIS year instead of next year because a) compromised 2025 draft and b) to accelerate their development to have a half decent midfield group as fast as possible (as opposed to the current situation being the worst or second worst midfield in the comp), so we should be open to trading our F1

I don't think there is any chance we would just take 7 and future 1st though. And if that's what's offered there will be no deal done in my opinion. I can see why the Saints would do the deal but not us.

 

[DraftInKing]

I've had Duff-Tytler high for some time, inside my early top 10 if you want to see it it's on the 1st page of this thread, Bamert looked good for Sandringham, but needs to show more and Moate was good at the u16s but also needs to show more which is why they are I the 2nd round atm, the 2 vic boys in my 2nd round I have high hopes for improvement are Thomas Burton who has developed a lot this year at Western Jets and Giuseppe Posterino who I really liked from the u16s who plays for Geelong Falcons.

From the other states, I've had the 2 hyphens from SA rated highly before, Chamberlain could rate highly from Syd A and from WA there's a few like Whan, Swadling, Cassidy and Montgomery who could rise into the 1sf round.

It will become clearer next season.

Yes, next season will be so interesting, will be keeping an eye on those names you mentioned as well. With Moate and Bamert, I fully understand why they are currently projected by you to be 2nd round, just reckon they can make a big jump.

Cheers for your insight by the way, its great

 

[The Talent Scout]

Would 10, 18 or 20 and 24 and a F2 get pick 2 done?

Leaves Richmond with an elite group of picks and north could do a lot with that given the good talls are likely to fall in that range.

Tauru at 10 and Shanahan and Trainor could easily fall into the 20’s. Depends what the inside word looks like closer to the draft but I could see that as a win win for these clubs.

Like on the tv show "no deal"! Brady has said we would move back in the order a few places to pick 6 possibly but no further back than that and for pick 2 if we are talking the tigers, "the deal has to be good" were his words so 2 for 6 and 10 or 11. Its really a double edged sword and I'll explain why, as posters have said, we are after key position talent and they know this, BUT we will EXPLORE our options, but we are not going to give our pick 2 away, if some clubs think that then they are in for a big shock. Teams will come for pick 2 whether supporters like it or not and we will take the best deal, what the opposing clubs have to ask themselves is HOW BADLY DO THEY WANT THAT GUN MIDFIELDER OF THEIR CHOICE?

 

[Tommy Wigs]

Fair enough, i love that we have pick 4 but if the saints came knocking with both 7 & 8 for 4 and an f2 (we don't have one yet but i am guessing we will trade for one), i'd be all over it personally.

Of course - anyone would!