Strategy Geelong's 2015/2016 flag goal

[allrighty]

Christensen

Yeah him too *facepalm*

 

[you pick one]

I hate to say this but I reckon a good part of our next premiership side is still in primary school or nappies.

 

[cats_09]

I hate to say this but I reckon a good part of our next premiership side is still in primary school or nappies.

Is that when we see the second coming of the names of Harley, Scarlett, Mooney, Johnson, Mackie, Wojcinski, Ling, Milburn, Enright, Taylor, King etc running round in the blue & white hoops again?

 

[you pick one]

Is that when we see the second coming of the names of Harley, Scarlett, Mooney, Johnson, Mackie, Wojcinski, Ling, Milburn, Enright, Taylor, King etc running round in the blue & white hoops again?

Yep

 

[FredLeDeux]

I hate to say this but I reckon a good part of our next premiership side is still in primary school or nappies.

I think we have an outside chance this year if everything goes right for us, and if some things go wrong for the other contestants.

After this year we face at least two major problems over the next few years.
1. We currently have fewer genuinely elite players than we had at any given time during the period 2007-13.
Next year, of the young players, we can add Motlop if he gets back to last year's form.
On exposed form, the only other one who may reach that level next year is Guthrie, but it may even take him another year; and by that stage (2016) Johnson may have dropped off the elite ranking, as may Taylor.
We have a couple already at the next level (Duncan, ChristENsen); they are going to be very good 200-gamers for us, but I have seen nothing to suggest they are going to take the next step to elite status.
I have seen nothing so far to suggest that any of our current young players will ever reach the elite level, though a few have shown signs that they may reach the second level. Vardy could be anything, but hasn't done anything yet. Simpson may become an important ruckman. Menzel, who knows?
That's not enough elite players to win a premiership at any time.
2. And, of course, then there's the second problem - the rise and rise of GCS and GWS (and GWS' current woes mean nothing - they will become a power).

I've always regarded the talk about 2015 as little more than spin and motherhood crapola, to help spare us poor benighted fans some of the pain of the letdown as we rebuild.

We aren't going anywhere for the next few years, I don't think.

 

[Trek]

Two hurdles in the quest for 2015 / 2016 premierships - Gold Coast and the loss of ageing stars.

Why we are "up" in 2014 is largely thanks to the likes of SJ, Kelly, Enright, Jimmy and if course Selwood and Taylor. It's been these guys who have turned it on when needed and with the older guys this obviously can't last. Guthrie is an exception amongst the younger players; he has been a model of consistency.

So all I am saying and thinking is that it's nice to aspire for 2015 & 2016, but be realistic. If it is going to happen, it will be 2014 with the star talent

GHS is not far behind Guthrie either!

Pessimistic view otherwise, can't say I agree and you might be surprised a bit...

 

[Claude Balls]

It was probably a considered and earnest spiel from Scott when he was interviewed for the job in 2010, but today, as several others have already said in this thread, it rings empty. I.e. if the Cats win the flag either this year, or even more unlikely, next year, it won't be due to unearthing a large number of young guns post 2011 - it will be thanks to the same old - OLD - brigade, of SJ, Bartel, Enright, Kelly etc. Along with the three players that are actually in their theoretical prime - Taylor, Selwood and Hawkins.

For the club to win a flag with the current list but minus SJ, Bartel et al, they will have to attract some quality free agents plus get great returns from the draftees of 2013 and also this year.

 

[FredLeDeux]

It was probably a considered and earnest spiel from Scott when he was interviewed for the job in 2010, but today, as several others have already said in this thread, it rings empty. I.e. if the Cats win the flag either this year, or even more unlikely, next year, it won't be due to unearthing a large number of young guns post 2011 - it will be thanks to the same old - OLD - brigade, of SJ, Bartel, Enright, Kelly etc. Along with the three players that are actually in their theoretical prime - Taylor, Selwood and Hawkins.

For the club to win a flag with the current list but minus SJ, Bartel et al, they will have to attract some quality free agents plus get great returns from the draftees of 2013 and also this year.

As I've said several times, I've always regarded Scott's original comments as merely emotionally gratifying noise, but I may be doing him an injustice, he may well have thought a rebuild would be far enough advanced to match the power of GC/GWS:
- He would not be the first prospective coach to misjudge the club's list, witness Malthouse at Carlton
- He could reasonably be excused for not expecting the rebuild to be delayed by the fact that so many of the 2007-11 stars would continue vto play at such a high level for so long
- He could not reasonably have expected so many of our existing and future (as of 2010-11) young players' development to be delayed by so many substantial long-term injuries - Brown, Simpson, Menzel, Cowan, McCarthy, Vardy and the rest.

But the fact remains (ie my opinion does, anyway) that come 2014-16, there is no sign so far that we are going to have either enough elite players or enough next-level players to compete against the growing power of either GCS/GWS, or the other premiership contenders.

 

[Claude Balls]

Yes that pretty much sums up my thoughts Fred. The dot points and the conclusion, that is.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Never say never, but the next generation of successful teams are now rising (bar GWS) while we're falling. I'm not sure whether we will win a flag in the next 5 years to be honest, let alone in two. The juries still out on players like Duncan, Motlop, Guthrie, Caddy, Murdoch, Bews, Blicavs, Smedts, Christensen, and so on, whether these players can turn into elite players that will dominate the competition. People once thought the team that won us 3 premierships wouldn't succeed either. So I'm not going to write off these guys yet.

But I think things will get worse before they get better.

 

[Cursed Cat]

As I've said several times, I've always regarded Scott's original comments as merely emotionally gratifying noise, but I may be doing him an injustice, he may well have thought a rebuild would be far enough advanced to match the power of GC/GWS:
- He would not be the first prospective coach to misjudge the club's list, witness Malthouse at Carlton
- He could reasonably be excused for not expecting the rebuild to be delayed by the fact that so many of the 2007-11 stars would continue vto play at such a high level for so long
- He could not reasonably have expected so many of our existing and future (as of 2010-11) young players' development to be delayed by so many substantial long-term injuries - Brown, Simpson, Menzel, Cowan, McCarthy, Vardy and the rest.

But the fact remains (ie my opinion does, anyway) that come 2014-16, there is no sign so far that we are going to have either enough elite players or enough next-level players to compete against the growing power of either GCS/GWS, or the other premiership contenders.

I don't think many teams will have enough elite players to compete against the expansion teams, they've been gifted huge advantages.

As to the OP's question, we're not gonna just walk up and take the cup, but if we're top 4 in either of those nominated years I will be satisfied - is that unlikely? Possibly ..

A lot of the players mentioned so far are in the early stages of their development, some are behind their GC and GWS counterparts in terms of games played.

Duncan and the injured Christensen are best 22 players at virtually any club imo.
Christensen needs to be deployed appropriately but he is definitely a talent - Duncan is very close to footballing maturity and is a solid player with room for growth.

Guthrie and Motlop would undoubtedly get a game at any club in the comp, they're two A-grade talents.

Then come the more unproven types, who, not coincidentally, are also generally the sub-40 game players : Horlin-Smith has made some big strides this season, Blicavs has contributed consistently, Dawson Simpson has struggled with his conditioning but I have no doubt of his application and I'm pretty confident that improvement will come.

Caddy, when fit, has tended to play in bursts, but he is a valuable addition to the side. Murdoch has all the tools.

I'm loathe to make excuses of injuries, but some of our key young talent have suffered significant setbacks, particularly Daniel Menzel.

Sheringham's continued selection has betrayed the MC's interest in keeping an eye on the present, otherwise surely they'd be pumping games into Thurlow.

Come 2015, I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing Corey Enright running around, sad though that is.
One or both of Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly could very conceivably go.
Tom Lonergan's AFL future beyond 2014 is speculative.

Johnson and Stokes will be there next year, as will Harry Taylor - and what was the contract situation with McIntosh and Rivers? I thought 3 and 2 years respectively? They'll be around next year I reckon.

The steady erosion of senior/premiership players will continue in 2015, but I reckon 2016 could see as few as 5-6 remaining premiership players on our list - that's when the likes of Duncan, Christensen, Guthrie, Motlop, Caddy, Horlin-Smith, Simpson, Blicavs and whoever else stands up will be required to push for the 'forecast' top 4 spot -there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge til then, the feasibility of a top 4 spot in 2016 is really hard to speculate on ..

 

[cynical]

should be aiming for 2018+ when Duncan and co are 27

pump games into thurlow, bews, kolo, lang janses etc so they get to 60+ games when we rise again

otherwise our midfield will be ready but we will have holes around the ground

if we can bottom out next year then we can add some high draft picks in 2014/15/16 to add to what we have

 

[Partridge]

As for our list. We have an incredible amount of list cloggers playing in both the first and the seconds who we need to get rid of asap. brown, walker, schroder, sheringham, stringer, cowan, burburry and hamling do not look like being anything more than average players.

Not one of them has played more than 17 games.

We are lacking talent and have a lot of vanilla midfielders developing:

Duncan: vanilla, a 'nice' player, low impact on the contest
GHS: smart player who is as slow as treacle
Guthrie: developing nicely
Caddy: very disappointing on his current impact this year, was expecting big things.
Christianson: inside mid, ok player, not sure he will get much better

In order - 86 games, 20 games, 50 games, 46 games, 57 games.

look at sydneys midfield-
Kennedy: Big strong inside extractor
Jack: dynamic inside/outside midfielder
Hanberry: a tough hard running inside midfielder/ accumulator
McVeigh: dynamic inside/outside midfielder
Jetta: Outside run

In order - 121 games, 148 games, 111 games, 229 games, 88 games.

So Sydney's least experienced midfielder in that group has played more games than our most experienced. I tend to think as horrible as Thursday night was, that those players might have better football ahead of them (in fact I'm sure of it).

 

[goodoldcats]

Not one of them has played more than 17 games.



In order - 86 games, 20 games, 50 games, 46 games, 57 games.



In order - 121 games, 148 games, 111 games, 229 games, 88 games.

So Sydney's least experienced midfielder in that group has played more games than our most experienced. I tend to think as horrible as Thursday night was, that those players might have better football ahead of them (in fact I'm sure of it).

Not one of them has played more than 17 games.



In order - 86 games, 20 games, 50 games, 46 games, 57 games.



In order - 121 games, 148 games, 111 games, 229 games, 88 games.

So Sydney's least experienced midfielder in that group has played more games than our most experienced. I tend to think as horrible as Thursday night was, that those players might have better football ahead of them (in fact I'm sure of it).

I know what you are saying, I just believe that only Guthrie has shown enough that he could develop in a great player. I think we lack class and definitely lack depth. I just can't see enough class in the players I have listed. I think we have tried to play a bit cute with our first round pick. And being up for so long has hurt. We should have traded for value picks, look at port they have targeted value high talent selections and are reaping the rewards

We would have had a strong midfield if menzel didn't go down and its best to assume that he won't get back.

I also don't rate Duncan all that highly, I don't think he will get that much better. I look at other lists that have depth that we could target both GC, gws, Sydney, fremantle have high talent young depth we could target

 

[Heckler]

Future success depends on having a clear vision of the game plan
This game plan, whether attacking or defensive, should be designed
to "Leap Frog" the current premiership style.
The game evolves fast and each premiership side brings something new.
Trying to imitate the them will leave you just playing catch-up not bettering.

The plan is based on how you can shut down strengths and exploit the opposition weaknesses.
It is then tweaked by to maximise the strengths that you have available.
Finally by specifically recruiting or trading to get players to suit that plan.

Get it right and success can come quickly. ie Port Power.
and you don't need a team of superstars either.

Look at recent history:-

Bomber when he arrived thought we were soft and wanted to build a tough defensive team
as the Sydney flood was all the rage back then.
Hinkley brought the "Fast Break" attack to defeat the flood
He also brought in "Forward Pressure" to especially create and exploit the turnover.
Hawks introduced the "Zone Defence" to stop Geelong's run and carry
Collingwood introduced the "Congested Forward Press"
Chris Scott introduced "Rotating and Resting" the players to keep our aging stars fresh in 2011
Hawks introduced the "Short Kicking Possession" to defeat the press

The coach and staff are paid big money to determine the future game plan.
Look at the teams that have beaten us and how. Speed and spread

I believe the future is about speed and skill.
It doesn't include two dinosaur ruckmen, a lumbering Walker at CGF or slow midfielders like GH-S

 

[Partridge]

I know what you are saying, I just believe that only Guthrie has shown enough that he could develop in a great player. I think we lack class and definitely lack depth. I just can't see enough class in the players I have listed. I think we have tried to play a bit cute with our first round pick. And being up for so long has hurt. We should have traded for value picks, look at port they have targeted value high talent selections and are reaping the rewards

I don't know how you can spot certain class players in 20 or 30 games. I really don't. I'm pretty confident if you looked through Corey or Chapman or Ling's first 20 games they wouldn't have been any better than Caddy's or Horlin-Smith's. In fact I did that and here's what I got:

These are the average possessions per game for a few of our decorated champions from our premiership years. All triple premiership players too. The cutoff is 20 games:

Chapman (9.95), Corey (11.2), Ling (10.7), Enright (12.85), Bartel (12.45), Ablett (10.85), Johnson (11.4), Kelly (15.35)

Now let's look at our four potential long-termers from the 2010 draft:

Guthrie (10.9), Caddy (15.85), Horlin-Smith (16.2), Smedts (11.45)

I would argue those three at the very least compare reasonably to the entire group above. For the top group, Kelly had the most 20+ possession games in his first 20 with 6, Enright 5, Ling 4. From the current group, Caddy had 4, and Horlin-Smith has already had 7. Including a 30 possession game, which none of them could match. How many would have said that Smedts averages more in his first 20 games than Joey Corey? I'm guessing none. None of the older guys had to contend with games as the sub in their younger days either, which is even more encouraging for the newer group.

So for me at least, I'd be inclined to be a little more patient towards the newer players. The stats show plainly that no less than 8 triple premiership players weren't any better at the same stage. It makes me actually pretty positive about them. Maybe not this year, maybe not next, but I'm not writing them off just yet.

 

[CharacterFirst]

I think all Scott meant by the 2015/16 comment was that we had to plan ahead as well as look at the today. I think he and the club have done as best they could at this. Injuries have hurt the younger guys greatly and delayed their development/curtailed their careers completely.

We all know GCS and GWS will likely dominate from 2015/2016 until 2025 or so, seeing how they have hoarded priority picks as well as being loaded up with future stars.

Lets look at other lists.....

1]. Richmond/Carlton/North/WCE/ - can't win with those lists. Nowhere land for a while yet.
2]. Freo - window may be shut after this year.
3]. Melbourne/Doggies/Brissy/Saints - rebuilding for tilts while GCS and GWS will dominate. Could be awfully painful finishing top four for 5 years without ever being a chance to win it. But they might pinch one if the expansion clubs have an off year at the same time.
4]. Essendon/Adelaide - draft sanctions and a whole world of pain for these guys - esp. Essendon*.
5]. Hawks - they traded knowing the years for winning were 2013/14/15. They will have to rebuild post that.
6]. Sydney - COLA helps greatly.
7]. Port have got in just in time to "steal" a flag before GCS and GWS - they have this year and the next 2 after that to do it, I would think.
8]. Not sure about the Pies - they could be with 1]. or 3]. or 7].

Where do we fit in?

 

[The rabbi]

Geelong are miles away from a flag. While CS was excellent landing a flag in his first year, his coaching since has been shocking. We lose the same away again and again and again against Fremantle with no change of plan. I think he needs support and we need a clean out of assistant coaches. We have lost a lot of talent in the coaches box

While I agree that we are some distance from a flag and we may have lost talent in the coaches box, the main issue as I see it is the lost physically strong talent in the midfield (Followers such as Ottens, Corey, Chapman, and Ling) while our other experienced mids are succumbing to father time with the exception of Selwood. Our current replacements are either not ready for AFL or are in the medical room.

I don't blame Scott for our demise because I just think that we do not have the cattle to compete with the top tier clubs at the moment. Due to our success since 2007 we have always been in the last three or four when it comes to draft picks, not to mention the compromised drafts of late.

As for our list. We have an incredible amount of list cloggers playing in both the first and the seconds who we need to get rid of asap. brown, walker, schroder, sheringham, stringer, cowan, burburry and hamling do not look like being anything more than average players. We are lacking talent and have a lot of vanilla midfielders developing:

I doubt that Sheringham is really a list clogger as he is only a rookie. That being said, I am surprised that he was retained on the rookie list.

As for the players that you list. I was surprised that Walker was dumped after the Port Adelaide game as he contributed a couple of goals when the team found it hard to score. I am not sure just what he had done wrong and I think that at the moment he should be playing CHF. You cannot scrap every player that is not a regular 22. Have you ever heard of the word "depth".
Sure, he has some flaws in his game but the kid is only 21 and he is big and strong and has a good engine. Where was the triple premiership player Cameron Mooney at the corresponding stage?

Brown may seek a trade and maybe Schroder too. I had drawn a line through Stringer and Cowan so I have no real issues there. I was surprised by Burbury's elevation to the AFL list and thought that he would be cut. But it must be remembered that he was playing good football before he had broken his jaw and I feel that he, like Smedts, were rushed back into the side before they were ready. Of course these things do get forgotten on this portal when players succumb to injury, especially after an horrendous loss.

I have said it before and I will say it again. I do not think that Hamling is a key position player at all. Hamling looks to me more like an Andrew Mackie third tall. He is physically light for a kid of 194 cms but he is athletic and has played some very good VFL games. Geelong recruited him knowing that he will take time and they will persevere with him. If they don't, I fear that he will come back to bite them. We do not have good stocks of talls, and to scrap him now after developing him seems to me a bit silly.

Duncan: vanilla, a 'nice' player, low impact on the contest
GHS: smart player who is as slow as treacle
Guthrie: developing nicely
Caddy: very disappointing on his current impact this year, was expecting big things.
Christianson: inside mid, ok player, not sure he will get much better

I think every midfielder needs a strong inside extractor, a dynamic midfielder or 2, a tough hard running inside midfielder/ accumulator, outside midfielders for support.

look at sydneys midfield-
Kennedy: Big strong inside extractor
Jack: dynamic inside/outside midfielder
Hanberry: a tough hard running inside midfielder/ accumulator
McVeigh: dynamic inside/outside midfielder
Jetta: Outside run

plus depth
Parker
Zak Jones
Okeefe
Mitchell

Sydney get some concessions that are not afforded to other clubs. They have a zone as well as the COLA. Tell me, what other team after having won a premiership was able to secure two players of the calibre of Tippet and Franklin in successive years? Geelong just does not have the wallet for that.
Understand this: In the AFL there is no level playing field.

In the draft we need to take best available and get some class into the team. I also think we trade more aggressively

I think that Geelong do try to get the best kids with their late round picks that they have received for the past half a dozen years. Have they made some mistakes? Yes, but in hindsight, what clubs talent scout has not thought to himself that he erred with a particular selection? As for trading aggressively, we would have to give up some quality to secure the services of a player that is needed. Trading has never been a great Geelong strength but development has.

I think that some people on this board need to come to terms with the fact that Geelong need to rebuild. That will take some time and it will result in some pain in the future.
I am not opposed to trading a surplus player for a genuinely needed position player, but a number of people completely lose their senses come November and want to trade out players for any other club's discarded players. Somehow, ordinary players that are discarded by other clubs magically become superstars in the eyes of some on this board.

 

[Moneypenny]

Good discussion guys! Very sensible for the most part

Avoiding falling down the ladder while turning over the list means that you sacrifice top draft picks for smart, not aggressive trading and developing the best talent available in the vfl. Rushing to include 18 and 19 year olds has not worked well so far for the likes of Melbourne or Western Bulldogs, and we are fortunate that younger players can develop to an afl-viable stage in the vfl while the oldies do their thing. The somewhat organic inclusion of new faces and a natural veteran attrition rate seems to work better than scorched earth tactics.

I guess my optimistic and patient approach is based on inferences I make when looking at Fremantle. Chris Scott was an assistant coach from 2008-2010 and many of the current players who like to rip us to shreds were new when he was there. While his part in their development is speculative (this article bumps his tactical nous http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/scott-new-cats-coach-report-20101017-16ou4.html) it's reassuring to me that a premiership contender had Scotty's input 4-6 years ago. We might sit here in 2-6 years praising or berating his decisions but from what I can see, the team's future is in the right hands.

Last year I may have said the team might have been ahead of plans for 2015, while this year due to a variety of reasons contending for a premiership in 2015 seems a little ambitious. Lumps and bumps will occur - you can't escape that. I'm willing to take some hits if in 2-4 years time we see the same Geelong hallmarks of midfield supremacy, sportsmanship, free-flowing football and a bit of flair. Bring on Sydney, GWS and GC! They've been handed success on a platter and all they have to do is not screw it up. It would please me greatly to show the AFL up on the biggest stage.

Phew, sorry if that's long! In essay mode

 

[The rabbi]

I believe the future is about speed and skill.
It doesn't include two dinosaur ruckmen, a lumbering Walker at CGF or slow midfielders like GH-S

I can remember when the good judges suggested that Ling, Bartel and Kelly were too slow to play AFL.
They are all triple Premiership players.
I agree that speed and skill are important factors in AFL footy. But I think that a quick team is not a team that has a bunch of sprinters in the midfield but a team that moves the ball quickly and accurately.
Players like Couch, Williams, and Bartel were never quick but they all have a Browlow medals in their cabinet. All three were genuine footballers and not athletes. They had the two most important skills in the game of footy:

(1) They knew how to find/win the football
(2) They knew how to dispose of it by either hand or foot.

I must admit that I find GHS to be terribly slow and I wonder if the club could do something about his running technique to get another yard out of him. But as Partridge has pointed out previously, and it is obvious to anyone who watches Horlin-Smith's game, that GHS has the 2 basic ingredients that I have outlined above that I believe are important for an AFL footballer.

 

[you pick one]

I don't know how you can spot certain class players in 20 or 30 games. I really don't. I'm pretty confident if you looked through Corey or Chapman or Ling's first 20 games they wouldn't have been any better than Caddy's or Horlin-Smith's. In fact I did that and here's what I got:

These are the average possessions per game for a few of our decorated champions from our premiership years. All triple premiership players too. The cutoff is 20 games:

Chapman (9.95), Corey (11.2), Ling (10.7), Enright (12.85), Bartel (12.45), Ablett (10.85), Johnson (11.4), Kelly (15.35)

Now let's look at our four potential long-termers from the 2010 draft:

Guthrie (10.9), Caddy (15.85), Horlin-Smith (16.2), Smedts (11.45)

I would argue those three at the very least compare reasonably to the entire group above. For the top group, Kelly had the most 20+ possession games in his first 20 with 6, Enright 5, Ling 4. From the current group, Caddy had 4, and Horlin-Smith has already had 7. Including a 30 possession game, which none of them could match. How many would have said that Smedts averages more in his first 20 games than Joey Corey? I'm guessing none. None of the older guys had to contend with games as the sub in their younger days either, which is even more encouraging for the newer group.

So for me at least, I'd be inclined to be a little more patient towards the newer players. The stats show plainly that no less than 8 triple premiership players weren't any better at the same stage. It makes me actually pretty positive about them. Maybe not this year, maybe not next, but I'm not writing them off just yet.

This
Un fortunately we live in an instant world where every thing is now now now and it amuses me how many here think all you have to do to be successful is dump the players you have invested in and automatically the next lot will be the answer,In most cases I like to hold my judgment until a Ive seen two preferably 3 preseason completed,but I think we're a dieing breed Partridge.

 

[The rabbi]

The juries still out on players like Duncan, Motlop, Guthrie, Caddy, Murdoch, Bews, Blicavs, Smedts, Christensen, and so on, whether these players can turn into elite players that will dominate the competition. People once thought the team that won us 3 premierships wouldn't succeed either. So I'm not going to write off these guys yet.

But I think things will get worse before they get better.

I think that, if fit, most clubs would not turn up their nose at a premiership small like Christensen or Premiership medium mid like Duncan. Most clubs would love to have a young clever, quick outside player like Motlop.
Caddy has all the ingredients but probably needs to improve on his disposal. Essendon lusted after Caddy but luckily we secured him.
As for Guthrie. I am completely flabbergasted that he is even mentioned as a player in whom the jury is still out. He has the skills to play forward, mid or back. It would not surprise me if he was an All Australian in the next few seasons. Guthrie has been a great pickup for the Geelong Football Club.

 

[The rabbi]

Partridge said: ↑
I don't know how you can spot certain class players in 20 or 30 games. I really don't. I'm pretty confident if you looked through Corey or Chapman or Ling's first 20 games they wouldn't have been any better than Caddy's or Horlin-Smith's. In fact I did that and here's what I got:

This
Un fortunately we live in an instant world where every thing is now now now and it amuses me how many here think all you have to do to be successful is dump the players you have invested in and automatically the next lot will be the answer,In most cases I like to hold my judgment until a Ive seen two preferably 3 preseason completed,but I think we're a dieing breed Partridge.

The problem here is the "Joel Selwood Expectation Syndrome" that a few people here suffer from.
Selwood is an exceptional player who was a premiership mid in his first year. Players like him are the exception and not the rule.

 

[you pick one]

I think that, if fit, most clubs would not turn up their nose at a premiership small like Christensen or Premiership medium mid like Duncan. Most clubs would love to have a young clever, quick outside player like Motlop.
Caddy has all the ingredients but probably needs to improve on his disposal. Essendon lusted after Caddy but luckily we secured him.
As for Guthrie. I am completely flabbergasted that he is even mentioned as a player in whom the jury is still out. He has the skills to play forward, mid or back. It would not surprise me if he was an All Australian in the next few seasons. Guthrie has been a great pickup for the Geelong Football Club.

That could only be the O.J. Simpson jury.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I think that, if fit, most clubs would not turn up their nose at a premiership small like Christensen or Premiership medium mid like Duncan. Most clubs would love to have a young clever, quick outside player like Motlop.
Caddy has all the ingredients but probably needs to improve on his disposal. Essendon lusted after Caddy but luckily we secured him.
As for Guthrie. I am completely flabbergasted that he is even mentioned as a player in whom the jury is still out. He has the skills to play forward, mid or back. It would not surprise me if he was an All Australian in the next few seasons. Guthrie has been a great pickup for the Geelong Football Club.

I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not saying these guys aren't any good. But the ability to win games against top teams is still in question. As we have seen in our three recent losses to top 4 potential teams that (apart from the ones not playing through injury of course) these guys have gone missing when the heat is really on. Then it's up to our veterans to try to win the game. That's what I mean by the "juries still out". When Guthrie, Duncan, etc can become match winners against the best in the competition, then you can call them elite. But they aren't there yet, that's what I meant. They may still be another 20-30 games away from reaching that level. But they do show a lot of promise.

When we can rely on the young blokes to be the match winners, and not the veterans, then we'll be a premiership threat again. But that's not where we are at the moment.