Strategy Geelong's 2015/2016 flag goal

[The rabbi]

Blakey, there is no doubt that we need the young blokes to take the next step before we can become contenders. But Guthrie's influence in defense is as good as Enright's this year. He has also run through the middle. Of the games where we have had our pants pulled down almost every one in the team has gone missing. Even Selwood was down on his usual output.

Guthrie shows all the signs of being a good consistent player. I am more confident of his success than any other young player on the list.

I think you misunderstand my point. I'm not saying these guys aren't any good. But the ability to win games against top teams is still in question. As we have seen in our three recent losses to top 4 potential teams that (apart from the ones not playing through injury of course) these guys have gone missing when the heat is really on.

As I have said above, the inability to wins games against top teams is really a reflection of where the whole team is at, not just the young players. Even Bartel has looked horrible in some games where we have struggled. I also think that you put far too much emphasis on players being "elite". No club has a field of elite players. They will have some who range from elite to average. What we need to get out of the young players is some consistency and I think that Guthrie is one of the more consistent players in the team at the moment. It needs to be understood that we have a team of young inexperienced players at one end and aging veterans at the other. We lack the experience in the Selwood age bracket. Until we have a good crop of players in the 100 games+ and 25-27 year bracket we will struggle. It is inevitable.

 

[Heckler]

I can remember when the good judges suggested that Ling, Bartel and Kelly were too slow to play AFL.
They are all triple Premiership players.
I agree that speed and skill are important factors in AFL footy. But I think that a quick team is not a team that has a bunch of sprinters in the midfield but a team that moves the ball quickly and accurately.
Players like Couch, Williams, and Bartel were never quick but they all have a Browlow medals in their cabinet. All three were genuine footballers and not athletes. They had the two most important skills in the game of footy:

(1) They knew how to find/win the football
(2) They knew how to dispose of it by either hand or foot.

I wasn't trying to single out players as such
but referring to the future game plan being based on speed
Yes ...you can carry one slow bloke but he needs to speed around him
and imagine how good would those blokes be if they had led speed as well

 

[Topper Harley]

Caddy: very disappointing on his current impact this year, was expecting big things.

The whole post was amazingly negative, but this little gem is plain stupidity.

 

[Heckler]

Partridge said: ↑
I don't know how you can spot certain class players in 20 or 30 games. I really don't

you pick one said: ↑
I like to hold my judgment until a I've seen two preferably 3 preseason completed,

The problem here is the "Joel Selwood Expectation Syndrome" that a few people here suffer from.

[\QUOTE]

.

You blokes would never make talent scouts.
It only took one game to see Selwood was gun
You could tell Guthrie was class after his first game
Stokes took a few marks and was a great shot at goal.
Jimmy was sure handed and composed
Duncan slotted a few goals from the 50m arc
in fact every guy that was a keeper stood out early
Players that will make it have a special string to their bow
be it: great mark, great kick, blistering speed, good hands, composed, strength, etc.

Also, you sure can tell a spud after one game

It is those non standout players are a dime a dozen
It takes time to determine the best from a group of them.
If you decide to invest time into one it is because they are the best you have for a spot,
Generally they develop into good ordinary footballers

 

[catseye]

As I've said several times, I've always regarded Scott's original comments as merely emotionally gratifying noise, but I may be doing him an injustice, he may well have thought a rebuild would be far enough advanced to match the power of GC/GWS:
- He would not be the first prospective coach to misjudge the club's list, witness Malthouse at Carlton
- He could reasonably be excused for not expecting the rebuild to be delayed by the fact that so many of the 2007-11 stars would continue vto play at such a high level for so long
- He could not reasonably have expected so many of our existing and future (as of 2010-11) young players' development to be delayed by so many substantial long-term injuries - Brown, Simpson, Menzel, Cowan, McCarthy, Vardy and the rest.

But the fact remains (ie my opinion does, anyway) that come 2014-16, there is no sign so far that we are going to have either enough elite players or enough next-level players to compete against the growing power of either GCS/GWS, or the other premiership contenders.

Spot on Fred.

I was thinking about all those issues and spent half an hour thinking about how to write it. Now I don't need to. Wells has been a mastermind behind our dynasty but perhaps the trick of trying to steal draft picks that other clubs have overlooked due the propensity for injuries hasn't worked out for us this time.

I am very concerned with our ruck stocks to be honest. Big Daws still needs to prove himself while Big Mac could go down anytime. Given how long they take to mature passing up on Grundy was a monumental mistake.

In summary 2015 is not going to be what was intended. As I have said, in other threads, the next 5 years will be bad time to be competitive (if that makes sense). Perhaps a big call but I think that Gold Coast side will go down as one of the best sides of the modern era.

Maybe not a popular decision with supporters but maybe we do need to admit to a rebuild.

 

[goodoldcats]

The whole post was amazingly negative, but this little gem is plain stupidity.

Why? I was expecting him to step up (before he got injured). Tell me, where you happy with the way he was playing this year pre injury?

And I'm a caddy fan, him and Guthrie are our only future a-graders in the midfield IMO

 

[Topper Harley]

Why? I was expecting him to step up (before he got injured). Tell me, where you happy with the way he was playing this year pre injury?

And I'm a caddy fan, him and Guthrie are our only future a-graders in the midfield IMO

"on his current impact this year" was what you wrote, and given he got injured after 4 rounds that was incredibly unfair.

 

[Turbocat]

I don't think many teams will have enough elite players to compete against the expansion teams, they've been gifted huge advantages.

As to the OP's question, we're not gonna just walk up and take the cup, but if we're top 4 in either of those nominated years I will be satisfied - is that unlikely? Possibly ..

A lot of the players mentioned so far are in the early stages of their development, some are behind their GC and GWS counterparts in terms of games played.

Duncan and the injured Christensen are best 22 players at virtually any club imo.
Christensen needs to be deployed appropriately but he is definitely a talent - Duncan is very close to footballing maturity and is a solid player with room for growth.

Guthrie and Motlop would undoubtedly get a game at any club in the comp, they're two A-grade talents.

Then come the more unproven types, who, not coincidentally, are also generally the sub-40 game players : Horlin-Smith has made some big strides this season, Blicavs has contributed consistently, Dawson Simpson has struggled with his conditioning but I have no doubt of his application and I'm pretty confident that improvement will come.

Caddy, when fit, has tended to play in bursts, but he is a valuable addition to the side. Murdoch has all the tools.

I'm loathe to make excuses of injuries, but some of our key young talent have suffered significant setbacks, particularly Daniel Menzel.

Sheringham's continued selection has betrayed the MC's interest in keeping an eye on the present, otherwise surely they'd be pumping games into Thurlow.

Come 2015, I'm pretty sure we won't be seeing Corey Enright running around, sad though that is.
One or both of Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly could very conceivably go.
Tom Lonergan's AFL future beyond 2014 is speculative.

Johnson and Stokes will be there next year, as will Harry Taylor - and what was the contract situation with McIntosh and Rivers? I thought 3 and 2 years respectively? They'll be around next year I reckon.

The steady erosion of senior/premiership players will continue in 2015, but I reckon 2016 could see as few as 5-6 remaining premiership players on our list - that's when the likes of Duncan, Christensen, Guthrie, Motlop, Caddy, Horlin-Smith, Simpson, Blicavs and whoever else stands up will be required to push for the 'forecast' top 4 spot -there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge til then, the feasibility of a top 4 spot in 2016 is really hard to speculate on ..

Cursed...solid assessment (as usual). The issue is as always you can do every thing right, as good as you possibly can but you may fall short. Either thru under estimation /over estimation of list , rushing/delaying the transition , the quality of opposition surpasses what one can possibly match with the cards dealt and plain old luck.

It doesn't seem that long ago when the Geelong list was rated as a bunch of good ordinaries , pre our great era our list was considered gun less. I look at us now , I see the same questions , probably even more so. We have less FS's which enabled us to get a couple of players that equaled having single figure picks. We have less early picks coming thru. Our success has meant that we have no been to the draft with a single figure since Selwood. Trying to determine if we can beat this is difficult. One sees signs both ways . Guthrie is the epitome of what the last group was. Now ..all Geelong supporters would agree he is a quality A grade on the rise. For us to become a real top 4 team in this next era , we will need many more of these.

You mention Thurlows transition. I was very big on him playing not so long ago, and that they are not playing him means to me that they want something more. Is his body ready? Is his attitude all it can be? Have others just gone past him a little? I don't know but here is an example of rushing delaying. We are impatient . And if we are moving into an ugly period , does that mean would should or shouldn't rush him?

What also different this time is GC and GWS and FA. The traditional list build that we used will not ever work again the way it did. And even if we manage to get 5-10 Guthires can we match the glut of talent at the golden child's up North. And FA means that teams will swing towards a buy this afternoon and drink tonight rather than lay down and mature.

So far we have done a lot right , but the footys gods have not really looked kindly upon us. Its going to be tough and the odds are not in our favour

 

[costanza23]

It needs to be understood that we have a team of young inexperienced players at one end and aging veterans at the other. We lack the experience in the Selwood age bracket. Until we have a good crop of players in the 100 games+ and 25-27 year bracket we will struggle. It is inevitable.

Exactly. If you really look at the ages of our players in our best 22 this year, and next year, you see there are many players in the 28+ range and a lot of potential stars in the 19-23 range. I'm just listing the ages of our players for 2014 to see where we are right now, and what 2015 and beyond might look like.

Players in the 28+ range (oldest to youngest):
Enright, Johnson, Bartel, Kelly, Lonergan, Mackie, McIntosh, Rivers, Stokes and Taylor.
That's almost half of our best 22 for this year. I really only see Enright retiring at the end of this year.

Players in the 23-26 range (oldest to youngest) [where you need to have most of your players if you're to win a flag imo]:
Varcoe, Selwood, Hawkins and Simpson.
I'm not including Sheringham, Brown and Hunt, even though they are in that range because I see those three guys leaving this year or next year.

Players in the 20-23 range (oldest to youngest):
Motlop, Blicavs, Christensen, Duncan, Vardy, Murdoch, Smedts, Guthrie, Caddy, Horlin-Smith, Kersten, McCarthy and Bews.
I haven't included Cowan, Stringer, Menzel, Burbury, Walker, Schroder and Hamling because I have doubts on almost half of those guys still being at the club in 2015 and onwards.

You can see that a fair portion of our list is still in their early 20s. Until that age bracket of currently 20-23's year-olds get another 20-40 games in them, I don't see us really challenging for the flag. We might make a semi or a prelim this year, while next year will really be a balancing act of playing the old guys and handing over their positions to the young guys. I do see 2016 and 2017 as better opportunities for this list.

To beef up the 24-27 bracket for next year, would we be wise in getting a free agent like Sydney's Nick Smith? He's 27 next year and would ideally assume Enright's position of back pocket. Or would this stunt someone like Bews' development? We struggle as it is with opposition small forwards, and I worry if Kelly is playing back pocket next year along with a 10-game experienced Bews.

This is how I see a 2016 team that is may be more capable for a flag than this year's group.

B: Smith (28), Hamling (23), Mackie (31)
HB: Thurlow (22), Taylor (30), Bews (22)
C: Varcoe (28), Caddy (23), Duncan (25)
HF: Christensen (25), Vardy (25), Motlop (25)
F: Murdoch (24), Hawkins (28), Bartel (32)
R: Simpson (27), Selwood (28), Guthrie (23)

Int: Blicavs (25), Smedts (24), Horlin-Smith (23)
Sub: Stokes (31)

Emg: Kersten (23), Lang (20) and McCarthy (22)

There's only a handful of ageing stars in this team with probably a more even spread across the team. Another query is whether Hamling would be up for full-back by then. Having a free agent Dangerfield by then would be nice, but he's like Boak and will be Adelaide's next captain. That's my take on it, but 18 months is a long time in football, let alone 1 week!

 

[The rabbi]

Another query is whether Hamling would be up for full-back by then.

The other query, or should I say queerie, is to place a player from another club on the list, especially someone in the back pocket. Key areas are far more important. Our big issue at the moment is the inability the win the clearances and get first use of the ball.

 

[The rabbi]

goodoldcats said: ↑
Caddy: very disappointing on his current impact this year, was expecting big things.

The whole post was amazingly negative, but this little gem is plain stupidity.

Ummm. Cannot argue with that.

 

[The rabbi]

You blokes would never make talent scouts.
It only took one game to see Selwood was gun
You could tell Guthrie was class after his first game
Stokes took a few marks and was a great shot at goal.
Jimmy was sure handed and composed
Duncan slotted a few goals from the 50m arc
in fact every guy that was a keeper stood out early
Players that will make it have a special string to their bow
be it: great mark, great kick, blistering speed, good hands, composed, strength, etc.

Also, you sure can tell a spud after one game

It is those non standout players are a dime a dozen
It takes time to determine the best from a group of them.
If you decide to invest time into one it is because they are the best you have for a spot,
Generally they develop into good ordinary footballers

The big problem with this is that very often tall players and KPD/F's do take time. I note that you only have mids in your list above.

The likes of *Mooney or *Hawkins were not AFL ready players straight out of the box. Neither was, *Tom Lonergan, *Andrew Mackie, *James Podsiadly, or *Trent West. Nor were Vardy, Dawson Simpson or *Mark Blake or *Mumford. It was only 3 years ago people on this board were screaming for Hawkins to be axed, yet before the Sydney game those in the footy media were labeling Hawkins the best Power forward in the comp at the moment.

Mids generally are ready to go earlier provided that they have the body to compete. That is generaly not the case with KPD/F's and rucks, and it is especially so if those KP and follower type players are later draft picks. You know, like Geelong has had to endure for the last 6 or7 years.

*Denotes Premiership player

 

[vealesy]

Should have set the sites on last year, we had a real shot as any other team, but we didn't manage players like we where in with a chance.It's not easy for us to be there every year, and some supporters on here seem to think we are going to be top 4 and flag chances every year.

I kinda think it's a little bit of desperation to say when you plan on wining a flag, sure internally, it's fine. But publicly it's cheesy, sounds like what Carlton/Richmond do, and something we don't. Considering we're generally a club that doesn't like to give things away and let our actions talk.

What about our 5 year plan in 2000 that stretched to 7 but came good?

That was a public decree of a flag.

 

[you pick one]

You blokes would never make talent scouts.
It only took one game to see Selwood was gun
You could tell Guthrie was class after his first game
Stokes took a few marks and was a great shot at goal.
Jimmy was sure handed and composed
Duncan slotted a few goals from the 50m arc
in fact every guy that was a keeper stood out early
Players that will make it have a special string to their bow
be it: great mark, great kick, blistering speed, good hands, composed, strength, etc.

Also, you sure can tell a spud after one game

It is those non standout players are a dime a dozen
It takes time to determine the best from a group of them.
If you decide to invest time into one it is because they are the best you have for a spot,
Generally they develop into good ordinary footballers

Wow! I hope Wells takes you with him from now on it will make his life so much simpler,what a talent you have.

 

[FredLeDeux]

You blokes would never make talent scouts.
It only took one game to see Selwood was gun
You could tell Guthrie was class after his first game
Stokes took a few marks and was a great shot at goal.
Jimmy was sure handed and composed
Duncan slotted a few goals from the 50m arc
in fact every guy that was a keeper stood out early
Players that will make it have a special string to their bow
be it: great mark, great kick, blistering speed, good hands, composed, strength, etc.

Also, you sure can tell a spud after one game

It is those non standout players are a dime a dozen
It takes time to determine the best from a group of them.
If you decide to invest time into one it is because they are the best you have for a spot,
Generally they develop into good ordinary footballers

Wow! I hope Wells takes you with him from now on it will make his life so much simpler,what a talent you have.

I think Wellsy might go for this, but possibly only if and when Heckler points out all the posts where he nominated each star, spud and don't know after their first games.

 

[manboob]

Rubbish post by the Heckler. Selwood aside all the blokes listed were pretty ordinary for a long time.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Rubbish post by the Heckler. Selwood aside all the blokes listed were pretty ordinary for a long time.

You guy would never make a talent scout.

 

[you pick one]

You guy would never make a talent scout.

The first word might need an edit Fred.

 

[FredLeDeux]

The first word might need an edit Fred.

Actually, on further reflection, I think we may be doing Heckler an injustice.
Clearly, what he means is that he could see after their respective first games that his 5 nominated players were all obvious guns; but that the other 60 odd players over the same period (from Bartel onwards) all fall into his "non standout players" category, who are "a dime a dozen" who "(g)enerally .... develop into good ordinary footballers". Triple premierships and all.

 

[you pick one]

Actually, on further reflection, I think we may be doing Heckler an injustice.
Clearly, what he means is that he could see after their respective first games that his 5 nominated players were all obvious guns; but that the other 60 odd players over the same period (from Bartel onwards) all fall into his "non standout players" category, who are "a dime a dozen" who "(g)enerally .... develop into good ordinary footballers". Triple premierships and all.

You mean spuds like Scarlett Ling Chapman Hawkins and others dime a dozen types,not the 2005 best 1st year player Kane Tenace.

 

[Heckler]

The big problem with this is that very often tall players and KPD/F's do take time. I note that you only have mids in your list above.

The likes of *Mooney or *Hawkins were not AFL ready players straight out of the box. Neither was, *Tom Lonergan, *Andrew Mackie, *James Podsiadly, or *Trent West. Nor were Vardy, Dawson Simpson or *Mark Blake or *Mumford. It was only 3 years ago people on this board were screaming for Hawkins to be axed, yet before the Sydney game those in the footy media were labeling Hawkins the best Power forward in the comp at the moment.

Mids generally are ready to go earlier provided that they have the body to compete. That is generaly not the case with KPD/F's and rucks, and it is especially so if those KP and follower type players are later draft picks. You know, like Geelong has had to endure for the last 6 or7 years.

*Denotes Premiership player

I never said any players were ready straight out of the box.
I said players that will make bring an attribute that make them stand out.
Hawkins was a monster from the start
I watched Mackie in the reserves for a year and he had the skills. It was the body that kept him back
Simpson spent years in the VFL when finally given games he improved our ruck

As for Moons Lonners Pods West Blake Mumford they prove my point
they were given games and became good ordinary players at best
none of them are beating the door to the hall of fame

As an exercise go through the list of our young players
and summarise what makes them special in a word or two

Motlop... speed
Blitz... Versitile
GH-S ... clean hands
BilliyS ... evasive and quick
Bews... goes hard, quick
Vardy... huge and moves well for his size (something to work with)
etc...

Try the same with the fringe players

Brown... errr ??? too slow lacks strength
McCarthy... ummm ????
Schroder... ???
Stringer... uses the ball well
Walker... big guy
Burbury... fumbles
Thurlow... good disposal nice overhead mark


see the difference?

 

[manboob]

I never said any players were ready straight out of the box.
I said players that will make bring an attribute that make them stand out.
Hawkins was a monster from the start

Haha! He was ****ing shit! What planet are you on man.

 

[Heckler]

You mean spuds like Scarlett Ling Chapman Hawkins and others dime a dozen types,not the 2005 best 1st year player Kane Tenace.

I never saw their first few years actually
I was supporting another team during that period.

 

[Heckler]

Haha! He was ******* shit! What planet are you on man.

Monster in size then and still is

 

[manboob]

I never saw their first few years actually
I was supporting another team during that period.

You've dismantled your own argument then.