Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[D BRIDGE]

Been watching a big of Bruhns footage this morning and I think the real gap in his numbers against other players by position is his lack of uncontested possessions. He's average for contested, above average clearances, that meets the eye test of him pulling out some good work through traffic then disappearing.

I think his kpi for the summer has to be all gut running. Yes he can do things around the contest when he's not under immense pressure, but he needs to do more away from it and put himself into positions to receive. Might align with his low TOG%, noting though that all our mids have low TOG%.

It's been one of my biggest gripes against Bruhn from the get-go.

He plays within a small sphere and once the ball exits that area he is hardly seen.

Last year 16.3 possessions and 2.9 clearances per game... So 13.4 touches outside of clearance.
This year 17.5 possessions and 5.1 clearances per game... So 12.4 touches outside of clearance.

He got less ball than last year outside of clearance... that is a worry IMO.

He never was an accumulator outside of the contest even in his junior days and struggles to link up once the ball spreads.

I'll give him a tick for improving his kicking this year.

I still hold the same concerns about Bruhn's attributes that I did 2 years ago when we traded a first-rounder for him.

I want him to come good... He is a tough kid with a strong leg plant and turn... but I don't see much else to get excited about.

I mentioned all this plus more years ago and copped it for having a good at him.

I see so many issues within his game that I probably won't even list them all now because people will jump all over me for stating them out loud and being negative.

Give him time was what everyone said... and I think 2 years on it's probably the same line.

Next year is go-time for him, no more excuses.

I don't buy the "he needs a bigger tank" line of thinking because he has always been this style of player and now has 4 seasons of AFL under his belt.

 

[My Tilly]

It's been one of my biggest gripes against Bruhn from the get-go.

He plays within a small sphere and once the ball exits that area he is hardly seen.

Last year 16.3 possessions and 2.9 clearances per game... So 13.4 touches outside of clearance.
This year 17.5 possessions and 5.1 clearances per game... So 12.4 touches outside of clearance.

He got less ball than last year outside of clearance... that is a worry IMO.

He never was an accumulator outside of the contest even in his junior days and struggles to link up once the ball spreads.

I'll give him a tick for improving his kicking this year.

I still hold the same concerns about Bruhn's attributes that I did 2 years ago when we traded a first-rounder for him.

I want him to come good... He is a tough kid with a strong leg plant and turn... but I don't see much else to get excited about.

I mentioned all this plus more years ago and copped it for having a good at him.

Give him time was what everyone said... and I think 2 years on it's probably the same line.

Next year is go-time for him, no more excuses.

I don't buy the "he needs a bigger tank" line of thinking because he has always been this style of player and now has 4 seasons of AFL under his belt.

You fail to recognize he had ongoing injury setbacks this season. I know everyone is effectively 'free game' once declared fit and right to play but breaking his hand and busting his shoulder are big hurdles to overcome for any footballer, let alone someone trying to find their confidence in the senior team.

You can see every time he returned, his body of work improved but injury curtailed that progression.

 

[D BRIDGE]

You fail to recognize he had ongoing injury setbacks this season. I know everyone is effectively 'free game' once declared fit and right to play but breaking his hand and busting his shoulder are big hurdles to overcome for any footballer, let alone someone trying to find their confidence in the senior team.

You can see every time he returned, his body of work improved but injury curtailed that progression.

That is the hope.

He started well and did get hurt.

Fingers crossed he can have a massive preseason and get it done all year next season.

 

[moond0g]

Then what happens with King?

Or are they playing King, Marshall, Caminiti & Wood all in the same forward line? Plus Membrey who while more that medium/third tall type, plays well as a lead up option

I'll love to see how Ross Lyon can balance their tall options

I think Wood plays better on the wing anyway, so there might be room for them. It could also be that Soldo values being back in Melbourne more than playing regular AFL, and St Kilda need depth with Campbell leaving.

 

[My Tilly]

That is the hope.

He started well and did get hurt.

Fingers crossed he can have a massive preseason and get it done all year next season.

He doesn't have one year to make it all work.
He has played 66 games.

Max Holmes was not the player he is today at the conclusion of 2023 having played 56 games in total.
Bruhn should hit his straps around that 75-100 game mark.

 

[moond0g]

I gotta cut Bowes some slack because he is used in different roles regularly and has never been given a chance to settle in one position... Probably due to him having some flexibility in his game.

Some games he is in at CBA's and showing he can win clearances... next week he is out of them.

Quite different players obviously, but some similarity to Blicavs at different stages throughout his career.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I’ve seen a few reports that all of Duncan, Bews, Guthrie, Stanley and Danger will play on next year. It seems CS is afraid to make the same necessary tough calls he did back in 2010/11.

With all those names staying, we'd still have Tuohy, Hawk, Parf, likely Foster off the main list.

Even if we retain the 2nd this year after the Smith trade and also bringing Martin to the senior list at best we're making a 3rd round selection. So the value proposition is

Duncan vs 4th or 5th rounder
Stanley vs 5th or 6th rounder
Bews vs 6th or 7th rounder
Danger vs 7th or 8th rounder

 

[moond0g]

I hate to say it but Tom Atkins had 25 CBAs, second only to Dangerfield, for 12 disposals and three clearances. I know CBA is an imperfect but it does suggest who was getting actual stoppage time. Bowes was 5/13/1 and Bruhn was 12/10/4. If I'm looking for the weakest link Tom might be it.

I like Atkins. You know he is going to extract everything out of the talent he has. But it will probably be a good thing when he's not in our primary midfield rotation.

That said, there is a spot there for a player like him. See how Drew is used at Port in tandem with their guns. But there's only 1 spot (or maybe 2) for someone like that. If we're going to play Danger, Holmes, Stewart and BSmith in the middle, we need to decide who that 1 extra is. Currently we have Atkins, Bowes, Bruhn (perhaps Bruhn not quite as defensive as the other two), but I don't think there is room for them all in there. And I'd probably lean towards Bruhn, who can't really play anywhere but midfield, and Bowes, who can play defensively while having a bit more class with ball in hand. So maybe we need to find a different role for Atkins. Personally I'd consider playing him in defence in place of Bews.

 

[moond0g]

With all those names staying, we'd still have Tuohy, Hawk, Parf, likely Foster off the main list.

Even if we retain the 2nd this year after the Smith trade and also bringing Martin to the senior list at best we're making a 3rd round selection. So the value proposition is

Duncan vs 4th or 5th rounder
Stanley vs 5th or 6th rounder
Bews vs 6th or 7th rounder
Danger vs 7th or 8th rounder

I agree with the premise of what you're saying. But the alternative is also that if Duncan, Bews and Stanley stay, they are likely to retire next year anyway.

And in 2025 we may have players like Blicavs, Guthrie, Rohan that are retiring in place of Tuohy and Hawk, and players like Willis and Wiltshire being delisted in place of Parf and Foster. So we may just be swapping a 5th rounder this year for a 5th rounder next year anyway.

 

[Warhorse]

Bruhn is nothing like Parfitt.

He might've only got it 10 times but he did use it bloody well. He had the highest disposal efficiency of any player which is insane for an inside mid. Bruhn is a genuinely elite ball user while Parfitt is a complete butcher.

He also had our second highest clearances only 1 behind Danger, more score involvements than Lachie Neale, the same as Holmes and Mannagh. And his defensive work was solid.

He actually wasn't that bad at all. He just didn't get the ball much.

I'm not sure how you can say the bolded above with a straight face.

 

[cats_09]

I agree with the premise of what you're saying. But the alternative is also that if Duncan, Bews and Stanley stay, they are likely to retire next year anyway.

And in 2025 we may have players like Blicavs, Guthrie, Rohan that are retiring in place of Tuohy and Hawk, and players like Willis and Wiltshire being delisted in place of Parf and Foster. So we may just be swapping a 5th rounder this year for a 5th rounder next year anyway.

Rohan is likely part of this years retirees

Thinking we can't re-sign all of Bews, Duncan, Rohan & Stanley - at least one or two of that group retires

 

[Pure_Ownage]

First big trade news of GF week -

Haha they clearly havent learnt from the bad contract they gave sav. Delicious.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

With all those names staying, we'd still have Tuohy, Hawk, Parf, likely Foster off the main list.

Even if we retain the 2nd this year after the Smith trade and also bringing Martin to the senior list at best we're making a 3rd round selection. So the value proposition is

Duncan vs 4th or 5th rounder
Stanley vs 5th or 6th rounder
Bews vs 6th or 7th rounder
Danger vs 7th or 8th rounder

Nah we will want at least 3 late picks in the ND plus maybe martin coming in. So unless bews or duncan are beint shuffled to the rookie list we will need to delist more numbers wise.

 

[Warhorse]

Getting the ball is pretty important when you are playing midfield. He was very poor.

He may have had a legitimate excuse.

Had we hung on for those last two minutes, we would have been forced to go back to Cam Guthrie for him or Bowes.

That is how bad they were.

Let’s be honest about the situation. And I like Bruhn.

We need to move on from Bowes as best 22, he has way too many convictions against good midfields now.

Bowes needs to play elsewhere. Can use the ball and kick a goal but just doesn't give the team enough as a midfielders.

Been watching a big of Bruhns footage this morning and I think the real gap in his numbers against other players by position is his lack of uncontested possessions. He's average for contested, above average clearances, that meets the eye test of him pulling out some good work through traffic then disappearing.

I think his kpi for the summer has to be all gut running. Yes he can do things around the contest when he's not under immense pressure, but he needs to do more away from it and put himself into positions to receive. Might align with his low TOG%, noting though that all our mids have low TOG%.

Yep. Pretty much. Gets torched on the outside as he currently doesn't have the running ability to stay with his direct opponent. Needs a huge pre-season

 

[FootyLad0]

It's been one of my biggest gripes against Bruhn from the get-go.

He plays within a small sphere and once the ball exits that area he is hardly seen.

Last year 16.3 possessions and 2.9 clearances per game... So 13.4 touches outside of clearance.
This year 17.5 possessions and 5.1 clearances per game... So 12.4 touches outside of clearance.

He got less ball than last year outside of clearance... that is a worry IMO.

He never was an accumulator outside of the contest even in his junior days and struggles to link up once the ball spreads.

I'll give him a tick for improving his kicking this year.

I still hold the same concerns about Bruhn's attributes that I did 2 years ago when we traded a first-rounder for him.

I want him to come good... He is a tough kid with a strong leg plant and turn... but I don't see much else to get excited about.

I mentioned all this plus more years ago and copped it for having a good at him.

I see so many issues within his game that I probably won't even list them all now because people will jump all over me for stating them out loud and being negative.

Give him time was what everyone said... and I think 2 years on it's probably the same line.

Next year is go-time for him, no more excuses.

I don't buy the "he needs a bigger tank" line of thinking because he has always been this style of player and now has 4 seasons of AFL under his belt.

He was on 7 Brownlow votes before he got hurt.

He got hurt mate, hard to maintain form when you're walking wounded.
He very clearly was still sore in the back half of the year.

I agree next year is "go time" but we also have to give him some leeway with injuries.

 

[FootyLad0]

Rohan is likely part of this years retirees

Thinking we can't re-sign all of Bews, Duncan, Rohan & Stanley - at least one or two of that group retires

Reckon Rohan is done, Martin pickup suggests that spot is his.
Too many head knocks and now a skull fracture.

Coaching gig is where he's headed. Like Higgins.

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

On a side note, O Henrys performance against Brisbane was epic. I now think he's going to be a very good forward for us and seems to have hardened up a fair bit with his pressure as well. I may have wrote him off a tiny bit during the home and away season.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I agree with the premise of what you're saying. But the alternative is also that if Duncan, Bews and Stanley stay, they are likely to retire next year anyway.

And in 2025 we may have players like Blicavs, Guthrie, Rohan that are retiring in place of Tuohy and Hawk, and players like Willis and Wiltshire being delisted in place of Parf and Foster. So we may just be swapping a 5th rounder this year for a 5th rounder next year anyway.

I completely forgot Rohan actually, who is definitely getting chopped this year imo.

I think we have a gap in ages though that we can aim towards in managing retirements. We have one player between Kolo's age (28) and Cameron's age (31) and thats Bews who likely doesn't retain his spot past next year.

If we can manage the old blokes off the list gradually all the way to the retirement of Jez in say 2-3 seasons time then we've solved the problem all the way to the retirement of the 2016 draft cohort.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Bowes needs to play elsewhere. Can use the ball and kick a goal but just doesn't give the team enough as a midfielders.

Yep. Pretty much. Gets torched on the outside as he currently doesn't have the running ability to stay with his direct opponent. Needs a huge pre-season

Yeah, that part looks like a solvable problem though. His positive traits are worth sticking with

 

[Jumping Jack]

Bowes needs to play elsewhere. Can use the ball and kick a goal but just doesn't give the team enough as a midfielders.

Yep. Pretty much. Gets torched on the outside as he currently doesn't have the running ability to stay with his direct opponent. Needs a huge pre-season

Bowes will be more suited as a good ball user off half back. Duncan style replacement with a few midfield minutes.

I think that falls into place nicely if we find midfield stocks like Smith and someone else.

Humphries can hopefully lock down the other half back and Holmes more time inside / wing with Smith on the other. Stewart will settle back into defence I think next year.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[My Tilly]

Haha they clearly havent learnt from the bad contract they gave sav. Delicious.

He will be a terrific signing.
Unorthodox player is Lukosius. Listed at 6ft'5 but very much a mid-sized forward like we see from Cameron. They can leave Georgiades one-out in the square and have Lukosius roaming around the wing and flanks for the next 7-8 years.

 

[Strange Cat]

I like Atkins. You know he is going to extract everything out of the talent he has. But it will probably be a good thing when he's not in our primary midfield rotation.

That said, there is a spot there for a player like him. See how Drew is used at Port in tandem with their guns. But there's only 1 spot (or maybe 2) for someone like that. If we're going to play Danger, Holmes, Stewart and BSmith in the middle, we need to decide who that 1 extra is. Currently we have Atkins, Bowes, Bruhn (perhaps Bruhn not quite as defensive as the other two), but I don't think there is room for them all in there. And I'd probably lean towards Bruhn, who can't really play anywhere but midfield, and Bowes, who can play defensively while having a bit more class with ball in hand. So maybe we need to find a different role for Atkins. Personally I'd consider playing him in defence in place of Bews.

Couldn’t agree more and nicely sums up my thoughts on the midfield , hopefully we also get a mature ruck to go with the Smith trade

 

[Strange Cat]

On a side note, O Henrys performance against Brisbane was epic. I now think he's going to be a very good forward for us and seems to have hardened up a fair bit with his pressure as well. I may have wrote him off a tiny bit during the home and away season.

Hopefully another one with a solid gym pre season there’s no doubt he has the talent just needs the confidence and size imo

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It's been one of my biggest gripes against Bruhn from the get-go.

He plays within a small sphere and once the ball exits that area he is hardly seen.

Last year 16.3 possessions and 2.9 clearances per game... So 13.4 touches outside of clearance.
This year 17.5 possessions and 5.1 clearances per game... So 12.4 touches outside of clearance.

He got less ball than last year outside of clearance... that is a worry IMO.

He never was an accumulator outside of the contest even in his junior days and struggles to link up once the ball spreads.

I'll give him a tick for improving his kicking this year.

I still hold the same concerns about Bruhn's attributes that I did 2 years ago when we traded a first-rounder for him.

I want him to come good... He is a tough kid with a strong leg plant and turn... but I don't see much else to get excited about.

I mentioned all this plus more years ago and copped it for having a good at him.

I see so many issues within his game that I probably won't even list them all now because people will jump all over me for stating them out loud and being negative.

Give him time was what everyone said... and I think 2 years on it's probably the same line.

Next year is go-time for him, no more excuses.

I don't buy the "he needs a bigger tank" line of thinking because he has always been this style of player and now has 4 seasons of AFL under his belt.

I think two seasons as a small forward aren't super relevant but I take your points. It's definitely his time to shine.

I think his disposal has become pretty damaging when he's finds even a little bit of space which is a big improvement. It's not like he hasn't gotten better in some aspects, just not the aspects we want.

On his trade value as a first rounder, we definitely underestimated young Darcy Jones and were not alone in that. Not sure we wanted a small forward at the time anyway so we probably would still miss him regardless.

But looking at the rest of that draft, I don't know I'd have chased any with that pick other than Hustwaite at pick 37 and I'd have to have had a vision from the future to have done that. So I don't think the trade cost for him is particularly relevant.

 

[bombersboy]

What do we need to draft? Assuming we have say 4-5 picks

2-3 mids
1 tall forward (cannot put all the eggs in the Neale basket - he gets first crack but not convinced).
1 mature age ruck with a sound body