Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[D BRIDGE]

If I’m Waterman (and I promise I’m not) I’d be trying to get that big contract now.

Cash in now on his “one good year only” form.

If he goes into next year and drops form or does an ACL it’ll cost him bigtime.

The safe bet would be to lock something in now if possible (even if slightly unders).

He can obviously bet on himself (and might need to) but that could backfire.

Good luck to him.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I really think this is where statistics can be misinterpreted. Hitouts are basically an individual stat, 1 out of 44 players on the field can increase you chances of winning by 1.6%. Maybe as a team that’s not a lot but if 5-6 players improve your chances of winning by 1.6% it starts to add up. And that’s only part of a rucks contribution, they are often influential in terms of clearances, presenting as a marking target, and dropping back and contesting in the air.

In addition, the stat is kind of useless IMO without margin. What’s the win rate if you win hitouts by 1 vs 10%, 30%, 50%. Geelong had 70% less hitouts than North Melbourne, we won that specific game but I do wonder if you ever hit a tipping point where hitouts stats to influence things more.

Good discussion to have. Those figures would have been taken over a very large sample of games, so I imagine the take home point from it is hitouts alone are non influential in terms of influencing outcomes. There are so many other more important areas to have your ruck focused and skilled at.

 

[Klink]

If I’m Waterman (and I promise I’m not) I’d be trying to get that big contract now.

Cash in now on his “one good year only” form.

If he goes into next year and drops form or does an ACL it’ll cost him bigtime.

The safe bet would be to lock something now in if possible (even if slightly unders).

He can obviously bet on himself (and might need to) but that could backfire.

Good luck to him.

That's a very good point you raise.

If he has another year, next year, like he is having this year, it will pay off in a big way and he will likely be an UFA with huge offers.

But it's not without significant risk as you have alluded to.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Still a hard pass on journeymen rucks, and I'd include ROB.
Waste of time.

Me2.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Reckon it might be worth us having a crack at this Dangerfield bloke

If he did want to go back to Adelaide for a final year I wouldn’t care too much. Doubt he does given they moved back to have a family in geelong tho.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Me2.

Me3

 

[eaglevision]

1/ that is literally what you were suggesting here:



2/ Matching gets you a worse deal, why invest in matching? Sign the player or don't sign the player

1/ bump up in $$, not length he’s already signed.
2/ matching a band 2 offer would be fine. We wouldn’t match band 1.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Who would get a game ahead of him? For next year our options are basically zero. He would play.

Probably the guy who's been spending most of his time in the ruck as we have put our season back on track. You might not like it but CS is clearly a fan of SDK in the ruck and given his preference for mobile rucks I wouldn't be at all surprised if he preferred him in the ruck to ROB.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

ROB?

He is #1 in the entire AFL in taps and #1 in taps to advantage... So he goes ok.

Certainly a much better ruckman than Stanley ever was... although yeah he doesn't run as fast as Stanley.

I think Scott and co have made it very very clear over the years they don’t rate tap rucks.

Conway they went for with an early pick and he looks a version of brad ottens to me, very skilled around the ground and I can easily see him resting forward and kicking his 1-2 here and there causing problems like Otto.

Mitch edwards looks also incredibly skilled for a big man.

Anyone we discuss as a ruck, I think we need to try and approach it from the perspective of what our coaches value in a ruck. Mentioning these journeyman tap rucks is pointless when our coaching group don’t value them.

 

[Johanpetro]

It’s all well and good to say ruckman and hitouts are overrated, but Conway literally can’t get on the park. Stanley will (should) be gone next season. So what’s the solution? SDK number 1 ruck next year? I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in OBrien

 

[CatToTheFuture]

1/ bump up in $$, not length he’s already signed.
2/ matching a band 2 offer would be fine. We wouldn’t match band 1.

Ok this is going around in circles. Have a good day.

 

[Tony Barber]

It’s all well and good to say ruckman and hitouts are overrated, but Conway literally can’t get on the park. Stanley will (should) be gone next season. So what’s the solution? SDK number 1 ruck next year? I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing in OBrien

Well Scott has said that they are playing SDK in the ruck now for his long term development.

So I'd suggest Scott knows he's going to need a back up ruck pretty soon.
So in my mind SDK will go back next year and provide relief ruck when possible.

Don't forget we're about to lose our relief forward ruck.

We are going to need a number 1 ruck.

 

[moond0g]

1/ bump up in $$, not length he’s already signed.
2/ matching a band 2 offer would be fine. We wouldn’t match band 1.

You can't just randomly bump someone's pay though, he'd have to sign a new contract at a higher $$$ amount to do that.

And the point is, why would he sign a new contract with WCE worth slightly more money, but for no additional years, just so that you have some leverage next year to match a RFA bid when the contract expires?

It's in his interest to either wait a year and cash in with a big free agency offer where he has complete freedom to take the offer as a UFA; or if he is to sign a new contract for more $$$ at WCE (as in the example), he would also want to make that a 5+year deal to lock in the extra $$ in the long term.

 

[catempire]

Ok this is going around in circles. Have a good day.

FWIW, you are spot on. The only way Waterman is going to give away his UFA status is by extending his contract. He’s not going to give it away for an increase in salary for one year.

He will shortly sign a long and lucrative extension with the Eagles. Nothing surer.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

FWIW, you are spot on. The only way Waterman is going to give away his UFA status is by extending his contract. He’s not going to give it away for an increase in salary for one year.

He will shortly sign a long and lucrative extension with the Eagles. Nothing surer.

The only thing I think could sway him away is his treatment back when he was sick and they nearly delisted him. But still, can't see it happening and happy to put a floor under his years and dollars

 

[eaglevision]

Ok this is going around in circles. Have a good day.

you too mate.

 

[eaglevision]

You can't just randomly bump someone's pay though, he'd have to sign a new contract at a higher $$$ amount to do that.

And the point is, why would he sign a new contract with WCE worth slightly more money, but for no additional years, just so that you have some leverage next year to match a RFA bid when the contract expires?

It's in his interest to either wait a year and cash in with a big free agency offer where he has complete freedom to take the offer as a UFA; or if he is to sign a new contract for more $$$ at WCE (as in the example), he would also want to make that a 5+year deal to lock in the extra $$ in the long term.

FWIW, you are spot on. The only way Waterman is going to give away his UFA status is by extending his contract. He’s not going to give it away for an increase in salary for one year.

He will shortly sign a long and lucrative extension with the Eagles. Nothing surer.

He could already well be a RFA. Point I was making is if he’s not we can offer him more cash which he’s not going to say no to.

Jake wants to stay at the Eagles. He’d probably prefer the Eagles be able to match it for that exact reason.

Anyway enough talk about Jake, just wanted to give you guys some context in my initial post as to why it would take a bit for the Eagles to trade him this year.

Play on.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Probably the guy who's been spending most of his time in the ruck as we have put our season back on track. You might not like it but CS is clearly a fan of SDK in the ruck and given his preference for mobile rucks I wouldn't be at all surprised if he preferred him in the ruck to ROB.

Scott won’t be a fan of rob. Potato hitout rucks are a liability

 

[D BRIDGE]

Scott won’t be a fan of rob. Potato hitout rucks are a liability

If ROB is a potato... then our ruck for the last 10 years must skin you peel and bin off a potato.

I don't think we will end up with ROB, but he is a far superior ruck than Stanley.

If we are going to stick with SDK and that's the plan... Fair enough, we don't really need anything more than backups.

But people calling the #1 tap ruck in the comp a journeyman seems a bit harsh to me... Especially if they have been Stanley backers over the years.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If ROB is a potato... then our ruck for the last 10 years must skin you peel and bin off a potato.

I don't think we will end up with ROB, but he is a far superior ruck than Stanley.

If we are going to stick with SDK and that's the plan... Fair enough, we don't really need anything more than backups.

But people calling the #1 tap ruck in the comp a journeyman seems a bit harsh to me... Especially if they have been Stanley backers over the years.

View attachment 2065171

 

[BORIS332]

If ROB is a potato... then our ruck for the last 10 years must skin you peel and bin off a potato.

I don't think we will end up with ROB, but he is a far superior ruck than Stanley.

If we are going to stick with SDK and that's the plan... Fair enough, we don't really need anything more than backups.

But people calling the #1 tap ruck in the comp a journeyman seems a bit harsh to me... Especially if they have been Stanley backers over the years.

View attachment 2065171

ROB is an absolute spud. Ask any Crows supporter, he's a liability and there's a reason he was dropped to the SANFL this year in favour of another spud, Strachan.

 

[Klink]

Footy isn't exactly the be all and end all to players. ROB is heavily invested in completing his studies. He is studying to be a Doctor and no doubt planned how that will eventuate. Unlikely he would want to disrupt that with an unexpected interstate move on a subpar contract with no gurantee of regular games.

Very impressive LinkedIn he has. Switched on man and isn't a spud in any aspect of his life. He has still managed to play 117-games at the elite level. Solid performer, nothing more, but good on him. I think he has achieved more in his life already than those that refer to him using such disrespectful terminology.

He is unlikely to move for a crappy contract and no guarantee to get regular games.

 

[foxdog50]

When there all saying Waterman wanting a trade.. its for the end of his contract right? Which if so , he is a RFA so it won't cost us a thing ?

 

[BORIS332]

Footy isn't exactly the be all and end all to players. ROB is heavily invested in completing his studies. He is studying to be a Doctor and no doubt planned how that will eventuate. Unlikely he would want to disrupt that with an unexpected interstate move on a subpar contract with no gurantee of regular games.

Very impressive LinkedIn he has. Switched on man and isn't a spud in any aspect of his life. He has still managed to play 117-games at the elite level. Solid performer, nothing more, but good on him. I think he has achieved more in his life already than those that refer to him using such disrespectful terminology.

He is unlikely to move for a crappy contract and no guarantee to get regular games.

Not to diminish his accomplishments, but Bachelor of Medical Science and a Masters of Public Health is not “studying to be a doctor”.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Not to diminish his accomplishments, but Bachelor of Medical Science and a Masters of Public Health is not “studying to be a doctor”.

In fairness you put the same amount of study into fluid mechanics they'll call you doctor