Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 2

[cats_09]

Ask and we'll try our best to assist - so here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

As normal, would like to acknowledge & thank Lore for creating this, keeping it up to date and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We can bump up his existing 2 year contract so to ensure he’s a RFA at the end of his contract next year. According to footywire he’s already a RFA.

Waterman gets nothing out of that.

He will take a 5 year deal at eagles or 5 elsewhere (near year FA). Hes not going to let you change his contract just for 12 months.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

It depends on the trade scenario:

- the Grundy trade still involved Collingwood agreeing to pay a portion of his salary for the remaining years of his contract. So neither Melbourne nor now Sydney, have taken over the full value of his remaining contract

- Bowes, Geelong took on his full remaining contract which is why the first round pick was thrown in

- Will Brodie trade from GC to Fremantle included, GC sending picks 19, 61, 69 & Brodie in exchange for future 2nd & 4th round picks with Fremantle paying the majority of Brodie's contract


IF Fremantle is going to pay a portion of Darcy's contract them, then it changes what's paid in terms of trade value - remembering though that Darcy isn't Grundy, and that should be reflected in trade value


BUT, IF Fremantle expects the new team to take over Darcy's full contact which is one they negotiated just 10 months ago - they'd have to pay the new team to take over the deal

I'd love all other 17 teams though to laugh at Fremantle and tell them to deal with the mess they've made of their salary cap themselves & that no one's going to bail them out. Really not sure why they signed him on such a long term contract & at the cost they did - didn't make sense back in December and makes even less sense now

I agree with that and they never should have signed him but i think they were desperate.

He wont get traded now though as they would lose too much in the deal.

He will stay.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Call me crazy but Furphy has looked good in the VFL. Mitch Edwards too, though he needs to add size. Conway, Edwards and Furphy as pure rucks, with SDK, Blitz and Neale as back up options is more than enough.

Furphy is the long shot to end all long shots.

And edwards is years off being ready physically.

That list being enough is the same logic that says trading 5 p30s will get you p1. It never does.
Quality trumps numbers every time.

Im fine if the club wants to write next year off as a development year (by not addressing the ruck issue) but they need to be honest and not pretend that we have a level of quality that we dont.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I agree with that and they never should have signed him but i think they were desperate.

He wont get traded now though as they would lose too much in the deal.

He will stay.

I think if the cap holds them out of trades for players they actually need they'd be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We don't need a mature age ruck clogging the list (Ceglar, McIntosh, etc. etc.). We have Conway, if he can't stay fit we still have another five options already on the list.

We have 5 players on the list doesnt mean any of them are real options.
Everyone argued the same thing in 2012 which is why we overlooked grundy and that went swimmingly well.
I can see 4 of those 5 options easily not being on a list in 3 years.
What we need to do if we are serious is get a ruck who is ready because none of ours are.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think if the cap holds them out of trades for players they actually need they'd be cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Thats fair but they wont do it though.

They will hope his body is better next year and it rehabs his trade value somewhat and revisit in 12months. They wont trade him when the value is at its lowest. But i do take your point.

 

[eaglevision]

Waterman gets nothing out of that.

He will take a 5 year deal at eagles or 5 elsewhere (near year FA). Hes not going to let you change his contract just for 12 months.

He’d get a couple of hundred thousand dollars extra this year and also next year until the end of his existing contract. Most people are likely to argue that’s a good result for Jake. Including Jake.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We have 5 players on the list doesnt mean any of them are real options.
Everyone argued the same thing in 2012 which is why we overlooked grundy and that went swimmingly well.
I can see 4 of those 5 options easily not being on a list in 3 years.
What we need to do if we are serious is get a ruck who is ready because none of ours are.

That's overdoing it.

Furphy's a long shot, and Blitz will be retired by then...but Conway & Edwards will get chance after chance, even if it doesn't end up being at Geelong.

Look at some of the spud ruckman who manage to eek out 8-10 year
careers just by playing that position.

There's a league shortage, and they take 5 years to be anywhere near ready anyway.

If you're including SDK & Neale in your 4 off the list then I don't know what to say to you.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

That's overdoing it.

Furphy's a long shot, and Blitz will be retired by then...but Conway & Edwards will get chance after chance, even if it doesn't end up being at Geelong.

Look at some of the spud ruckman who manage to eek out 8-10 year
careers just by playing that position.

There's a league shortage, and they take 5 years to be anywhere near ready anyway.

If you're including SDK & Neale in your 4 off the list then I don't know what to say to you.

Its not at all.
Look at end 2012.
We had just replaced stephenson with mcintosh.
We also had west, simpson, vardy and blicavs.
12.months later west was traded, witin 3 years simpson was cooked, hmac only played 12 months before his body went, vardy petered out. Ironically blicavs who was the most longshot of the group was the only one that made it.

In this scenario furphy is the longshot blicavs was in 2012.
If you cant see the obvious similarities between conway and dawson simpson i cant help you.
Neale is out of contract next year and every chance to either get traded, or stay another 3 years and not fully make it.
Blicavs has 12 months left before retirement.
Edwards is even further back physically than vardy was in 2012.
Sdk is the only one guaranteed to be on our list in 3 years time and he leaves a hole if hes not FB.

Again if the club doesnt want to bring in a ruck
If their philosophy is if we cant get an A grader lets not trade anyone and lets just try to make do im fine with that.
But lets be honest about the weaknesses we have and not pretend that we have a level of quality in our ruck stocks that we dont. Its obvious.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

He’d get a couple of hundred thousand dollars extra this year and also next year until the end of his existing contract. Most people are likely to argue that’s a good result for Jake. Including Jake.

Hes not giving up his freedom for 400k. He will get a way better outcome financially by waiting til end 2025 unless you offer him 5-6 years now.

 

[eaglevision]

Hes not giving up his freedom for 400k. He will get a way better outcome financially by waiting til end 2025 unless you offer him 5-6 years now.

Mate. He will want the eagles to match any offer so he can stay here. Plus he gets a 400k bonus. Understand the situation you’re commenting on.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Its not at all.
Look at end 2012.
We had just replaced stephenson with mcintosh.
We also had west, simpson, vardy and blicavs.
12.months later west was traded, witin 3 years simpson was cooked, hmac only played 12 months before his body went, vardy petered out. Ironically blicavs who was the most longshot of the group was the only one that made it.

In this scenario furphy is the longshot blicavs was in 2012.
If you cant see the obvious similarities between conway and dawson simpson i cant help you.
Neale is out of contract next year and every chance to either get traded, or stay another 3 years and not fully make it.
Blicavs has 12 months left before retirement.
Edwards is even further back physically than vardy was in 2012.
Sdk is the only one guaranteed to be on our list in 3 years time and he leaves a hole if hes not FB.

Again if the club doesnt want to bring in a ruck
If their philosophy is if we cant get an A grader lets not trade anyone and lets just try to make do im fine with that.
But lets be honest about the weaknesses we have and not pretend that we have a level of quality in our ruck stocks that we dont. Its obvious.

Who are you proposing we trade for though? I can't think of a ruck worth trading for that would come to us

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Mate. He will want the eagles to match any offer so he can stay here. Plus he gets a 400k bonus. Understand the situation you’re commenting on.

This is probably top 10 for most confusing posts ever.

If he wants to stay then why is he accepting an offer from another club to begin with?

If he wants to stay why sign a contract for the explicit reason that gives the club he wants to stay at more bargaining power in a trade that he doesn't want?

Why would he sign for another 400k if it reduces the number of suitors he has for his next contract and loses him around a million over the course of his next contract?

if west coast wants him to stay then they sign him for 5 years. If they don't they don't. It's super simple.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Its not at all.
Look at end 2012.
We had just replaced stephenson with mcintosh.
We also had west, simpson, vardy and blicavs.
12.months later west was traded, witin 3 years simpson was cooked, hmac only played 12 months before his body went, vardy petered out. Ironically blicavs who was the most longshot of the group was the only one that made it.

In this scenario furphy is the longshot blicavs was in 2012.
If you cant see the obvious similarities between conway and dawson simpson i cant help you.
Neale is out of contract next year and every chance to either get traded, or stay another 3 years and not fully make it.
Blicavs has 12 months left before retirement.
Edwards is even further back physically than vardy was in 2012.
Sdk is the only one guaranteed to be on our list in 3 years time and he leaves a hole if hes not FB.

Again if the club doesnt want to bring in a ruck
If their philosophy is if we cant get an A grader lets not trade anyone and lets just try to make do im fine with that.
But lets be honest about the weaknesses we have and not pretend that we have a level of quality in our ruck stocks that we dont. Its obvious.

That's not only immensely negative, but it reeks of not applying the same logic to the players at other clubs.

If you do that, I'm more than fine with your view...but you can't apply it to our players, and then think the alternatives don't come with their own set of issues.

What if we got English? He's one concussion off retirement.

What if we got Darcy? He's one more injury off questioning if he'll ever run out a season, and he's hardly flying in that department anyway.

The rest are guys like Ladhams (proven spud with off-field issues) and Reidy - speak to Freo supporters, and they wouldn't be surprised if he's playing at Frankston next year.

Our guys aren't certainties, but the players available aren't either.

It's just like your Neale and Waterman comments. Applying none of the logic or leniency to our players as you are to the alternative.

ROB is the only happy medium. Nothing special, but will at least stay fit all year all things being equal...and we don't even know if he's available or wants to come to Geelong.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Mate. He will want the eagles to match any offer so he can stay here. Plus he gets a 400k bonus. Understand the situation you’re commenting on.

If he wants to stay he will sign for 5 years now.
Hes not not signing for 5 years now but then taking a 400k rework to lose his RFA status and freedom next year. That makes no sense to me (fwiw i think he will stay on a long term deal but what youre suggesting doesnt make sense).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Who are you proposing we trade for though? I can't think of a ruck worth trading for that would come to us

If darcy was still FA i would have said him but that ship has sailed now (for good reason).
The most obvious option left on the market is english but i doubt the club goes there.

Failing that ive suggested options previously like ladhams reidy ramsden pitto (plus ROB possibly) that might be realistic.

The two issues are separate though.
The who could be bring in is dictated by the market.
Whereas the do we need a ruck issue is simple logic and people seem determined to ignore the logic. Its fairly obvious we dont currently have an adequate solution for that position.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If darcy was still FA i would have said him but that ship has sailed now (for good reason).
The most obvious option left on the market is english but i doubt the club goes there.

Failing that ive suggested options previously like ladhams reidy ramsden pitto (plus ROB possibly) that might be realistic.

The two issues are separate though.
The who could be bring in is dictated by the market.
Whereas the do we need a ruck issue is simple logic and people seem determined to ignore the logic. Its fairly obvious we dont currently have an adequate solution for that position.

Ok but simply stating we need a ruck without a "do different" is kind of pointless.

I wouldn't pit anything serious on the table for Ladhams, Reidy, or Ramsden. Pittonet we won't be able to get. ROB I don't see Crows letting him go either.

You can't chase something that's not there. Just rookie a state leaguer and move on to solvable problems

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I appreciate the question - but surely you appreciate why I'm not going down the path of saying person X or person Y told me.

I'm happy to cop a few whacks from people along the way (as I have) but the whole premise of these forums is to share information and views on a range of topics. I'm fortunate to have a few good contacts who are "close" to the action.

Happy to share snippets I get along the way but I'd prefer just to leave it at that and not risk outing people who I trust. On the flipside - there's stuff I get along the way that I choose not to post as it risks outing me to people on this board - or people I trust.

If that's not acceptable for some in here then that's ok. But let's keep this whole online forum concept in perspective. It's information sharing - not some high court type set up where keyboard nufties prosecute every single word.

I wasn’t asking for names, but I was curious what sort of contact. If this is still too specific then no worries, didn’t mean to offend.

 

[eaglevision]

If he wants to stay he will sign for 5 years now.
Hes not not signing for 5 years now but then taking a 400k rework to lose his RFA status and freedom next year. That makes no sense to me (fwiw i think he will stay on a long term deal but what youre suggesting doesnt make sense).

This is probably top 10 for most confusing posts ever.

If he wants to stay then why is he accepting an offer from another club to begin with?

If he wants to stay why sign a contract for the explicit reason that gives the club he wants to stay at more bargaining power in a trade that he doesn't want?

Why would he sign for another 400k if it reduces the number of suitors he has for his next contract and loses him around a million over the course of his next contract?

if west coast wants him to stay then they sign him for 5 years. If they don't they don't. It's super simple.

I understand your argument but what you’re not considering is if the Eagles want to leave the option of cashing in whilst his value is high next year for a band 1 pick open and DON’T offer to extend his current contract. Tall forward is the one position we actually have depth in.

Here are the 4 RFA/UFA scenarios at the end of next year assuming we don’t extend him this year.


A-UFA and Eagles want the compo pick

Offer comes in, Eagles say no worries Jake thanks for your service wish you all the best.


B-RFA and Eagles want the compo pick

Offer comes in, Eagles say no worries Jake we won’t match that thanks for your service wish you all the best.



C-UFA and Eagles want Jake

Eagles tell Jake they’ll equal the terms of the offer, which is exactly what the Saints have done with Battle and Jake signs with the Eagles as that is his preference.



D-RFA and Eagles want Jake

Eagles match the bid and refuse all trade offers and Jake is happy to stay as that is his preference.


Do you see that whether he is an UFA or a RFA make no material difference in the outcome given his preference is to stay? The only difference is that he’ll have an extra 400k (or so) in his pocket if the Eagles boost his pay to make him a RFA.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I understand your argument but what you’re not considering is if the Eagles want to leave the option of cashing in whilst his value is high next year for a band 1 pick open and DON’T offer to extend his current contract. Tall forward is the one position we actually have depth in.

Here are the 4 RFA/UFA scenarios at the end of next year assuming we don’t extend him this year.


A-UFA and Eagles want the compo pick

Offer comes in, Eagles say no worries Jake thanks for your service wish you all the best.


B-RFA and Eagles want the compo pick

Offer comes in, Eagles say no worries Jake we won’t match that thanks for your service wish you all the best.



C-UFA and Eagles want Jake

Eagles tell Jake they’ll equal the terms of the offer, which is exactly what the Saints have done with Battle and Jake signs with the Eagles as that is his preference.



D-RFA and Eagles want Jake

Eagles match the bid and refuse all trade offers and Jake is happy to stay as that is his preference.


Do you see that whether he is an UFA or a RFA make no material difference in the outcome given his preference is to stay? The only difference is that he’ll have an extra 400k (or so) in his pocket if the Eagles boost his pay to make him a RFA.

Option C and D aren't real. The only option where the Eagles want him and he stays is if they sign him. He has to want to stay and if he's accepting a free agency offer he hasn't chosen to do that.

I don't know why you think a player that wants to stay would sign a contract for another club as a negotiating tactic

 

[eaglevision]

Option C and D aren't real. The only option where the Eagles want him and he stays is if they sign him. He has to want to stay and if he's accepting a free agency offer he hasn't chosen to do that.

I don't know why you think a player that wants to stay would sign a contract for another club as a negotiating tactic

Option C is exactly what the Saints have just done with Battle so by definition that scenario has to be real. We’re going round in circles and clogging up your trade board with minutiae regarding an Eagles player which wasn’t my intention with the original post. If you want to continue the discussion PM me, otherwise goodluck today .

 

[D BRIDGE]

Mods is it possible to get the draft order graph stuck to the top of this page like in previous years?

Being able to take a glace and know who has what picks is nice.

 

[OzeSparky]

We definitely need a Ruck.

Alex Mircov might be interested in a move, has looked good in the VFL.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

We definitely need a Ruck.

Alex Mircov might be interested in a move, has looked good in the VFL.

Nah not really. Unless you are talking about a A grader that is free... as in a Free Agent.
FWIW We have one... albeit a young ripping one.
Toby Conway. We used our 2nd round pick on him 2 years ago.
Yep he was injured this year at times. But i don't see the club giving up on him.
As he's gonna be a our Number1.
Then we have Mitch Edwards.
We took him with our 2nd round pick last year.
Another who'll be a ripper that can even play FF/CHF IMO. Great contested mark.
Another 5-7 kgs over summer will help his progress.
Oh. We might add Pikey this upcoming draft as a 4th/5th round pick/or Rookie draft.
As for a journeyman VFL plodder... i can't see us spending much time or effort chasing one TBH.

 

[cats_09]

Mods is it possible to get the draft order graph stuck to the top of this page like in previous years?

Being able to take a glace and know who has what picks is nice.

I'll do my best when I get home (shortly) to source this year's live doc