How Crow Can You Go? An Adelaide Football Club Saga

[Blue__Balls]

Have run through the last four rounds of the ladder predictor, and in all honesty we're a fair chance to climb a few spots and Adelaide miss the 8. That's including some results not going our way.

Relevant results:
Rd 20: Car d. WC, Ade d. StK, Haw d. Nth, GWS d. Syd, Ess d. PA
Rd 21: PA d. Syd, Geel d. Nth, Fre d. StK, WC d. Ade, Rich d. Car
Rd 22: Syd d. Mel, Car d. StK, Coll d. Ade, PA d. Nth
Rd 23: Mel d. Nth, PA d. Freo, Geel d. Car, WB d. Ade, (Syd vs St Kilda can go either way, winner jumps us)

We win 2 of 4 -beating WC here and St Kilda.
Ade win 1 of 4 - losing to WC, Coll and WB.
PA win 3 of 4 - two home games against bottom 8 sides plus Essendon away.
Nth lose their last 4.
Syd win 1-2 of 4.
StK win 0-1 of 4.

Has us in 14th on 8 wins, St Kilda and Sydney either side.
Ade in 9th, a game behind PA. Even if they win another one, percentage could come into play.

I'd happily take that result.

Pick 4 to Adelaide.
Pick 10 to Carlton.

A priority pick to GC hurts Adelaide more than us as well if we're trading our pick and they're going to the draft.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

View attachment 717230

R20 -- HAW d. NM // ESS d. PA // GWS d. SYD // FRE d. GEE // RIC d MEL // STK d ADE // COL d. G // WCE d. CARL // BNE d WB

R21 -- GWS d HAW // COL d MEL // PA d SYD // BNE d GC // WB D ESS // GEE d NM // STK d FRE // RIC d CARL // WCE d ADE

R22 -- MEL d SYD // CARL d STK // BNE D GEE // COL D ADE // PA D NM // FRE D ESS // RIC D WCE // GWS D WB // HAW D GC

R23 -- NM d MEL // RIC D BNE // GWS D GC // PA D FRE // WCE d HAW /// GEE d CARL // WB d ADE // COL D ESS // STK D SYD


Carlton trade pick 5 (Gold Coast will highly likely get a priority pick) for pick 7 + Stocker

Even if they get a win over the Saints and finnish 10th on 40pts that's pick 9 for us
Carlton -Stocker and pick 9 'which could turned into multiple picks ?
Adelaide - pick 4
Happy days....

 

[ferrisb]

If Adelaide get a top 3 pick, they’ve done well. They didn’t rate Stocker, so 19 doesn’t have great value. From their perspective, it was basically a high second rounder to almost certainly upgrade this years pick to top 3-4. That’s totally defensible.

Doesn’t mean it cant also be great for us.

Yep, I still think Adelaide walk away from this having done very well.

Stocker could end up a gun and we are probably trading our first anyway, so the damage may be limited from our end.

BUT unless we win every game and Adelaide lose every game (pls, pls, pls).....they would do this trade again in a heartbeat*.





* Adelaide don't seem to have a heartbeat at the moment.....

 

[Macca43]

Yep, I still think Adelaide walk away from this having done very well.

Stocker could end up a gun and we are probably trading our first anyway, so the damage may be limited from our end.

BUT unless we win every game and Adelaide lose every game (pls, pls, pls).....they would do this trade again in a heartbeat.

I can see at least 2 of the bulldogs, Hawthorn, Port and St Kilda getting ahead of the Crows by years end.

As for the trade, the blues look like they will get what they want out of the trade (a player they rated in the top 10 plus a pick high enough in this year draft to get the player they want) while the Crows will get what they want and high first round pick. Both teams will be very happy and the "winner" won't be known for a decade and will depend on decisions made this year.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I was trying to equate Stockers talent in comparison to this years draft to find relative draft pick value, not about them missing out on specifically. I was suggesting that he's about a top 10 pick this year. (personally I'd say he's top 6, but I don't want to get carried away...)

If they finish 10th and we 15, pick 8 and 19 for pick 4 is probably a win for Adelaide, regardless of the quality of the drafts.

But then I tried to break it down in to the quality of the drafts; pick 19 last year is perhaps worth around a low top 10 pick this year. If Stocker would be worth a top 10 pick this year then the Crows have given the equivalent of 2 top 10 picks for our pick. In that case it's maybe not a great trade by them.

Does that make sense or am I just waffling my way to nothing?

Nah it makes sense. I guess I just struggle to rate these things based on a hypothetical of what Stocker might have been in this draft. He's definitely shown some signs but it's a stretch to start saying he's a top 10 or 6 pick this year with even a remote degree of confidence imo. I guess I'm trying to be fair to Adelaide - in a vacuum, both now and when they did the deal, its an early second to jump into the top 3-4 and that's ok.

For where we are at - two for one also made sense, particularly given we rated Stocker. We need depth and flexibility more than we need another top 4 pick, particularly if the talent at the pointy end is a bit thinner this year.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

1. Jenkins 30yrs
2. Gibbs 30yrs
3. McKay 30yrs
4. Betts 32yrs
5. Often 30yrs
6. Jacobs 31yrs
7. Douglas 32yrs
8. Sloane 29yrs
9. Walker 29yrs
10. Lynch 29yrs

You would think that a need to play some youngsters over the last month would be best for the long term interests of the club, somehow with them clinging on to a very faint finals chance maybe self preservation will be the riding factor in what choices will be made...
If the Saints roll them this week, that should make the decision black and white you would think...

 

[SammaGilberto]

Have the chance to go a win ahead into the 8... drop Betts / Greenwood and manage their second best... if not best defender... Lucky they are eating their pizzas and drinkin beer, that'll solve it Pykey... keep it up.

 

[Blue__Balls]

1. Jenkins 30yrs
2. Gibbs 30yrs
3. McKay 30yrs
4. Betts 32yrs
5. Often 30yrs
6. Jacobs 31yrs
7. Douglas 32yrs
8. Sloane 29yrs
9. Walker 29yrs
10. Lynch 29yrs

You would think that a need to play some youngsters over the last month would be best for the long term interests of the club, somehow with them clinging on to a very faint finals chance maybe self preservation will be the riding factor in what choices will be made...
If the Saints roll them this week, that should make the decision black and white you would think...

Would certainly make sense for them to recognise they're not going to trouble the top sides through September and start forward planning.

Give those kids a run of games into the finals, and if they make the 8 then those kids get some exposure to finals pressure. Keeps them hungry too. Set up for a better tilt next season.

 

[Coops93]

Nah it makes sense. I guess I just struggle to rate these things based on a hypothetical of what Stocker might have been in this draft. He's definitely shown some signs but it's a stretch to start saying he's a top 10 or 6 pick this year with even a remote degree of confidence imo. I guess I'm trying to be fair to Adelaide - in a vacuum, both now and when they did the deal, its an early second to jump into the top 3-4 and that's ok.

For where we are at - two for one also made sense, particularly given we rated Stocker. We need depth and flexibility more than we need another top 4 pick, particularly if the talent at the pointy end is a bit thinner this year.

I was probably comparing the quality of the overall draft as opposed to Stocker individually. Pick 19 in what was hyped up to be an all time great draft is perhaps better than a low top 10 pick in a standard draft. I could be wrong but I've read that this maybe even below the average, but who knows really.

So it more or less came down to is pick 19 in a super strong draft and ~pick 8 worth trading for ~pick 4 in the weaker draft?

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Would certainly make sense for them to recognise they're not going to trouble the top sides through September and start forward planning.

Give those kids a run of games into the finals, and if they make the 8 then those kids get some exposure to finals pressure. Keeps them hungry too. Set up for a better tilt next season.

They do have some good kids on their list not sure about all their availability with injuries etc, but if they are playing in the sanfl give'em a go they need exposure...

 

[CJMB]

Swans are in no mans land with their list. And they have Buddy's ridiculous contract hanging around their neck

Don't forget Tippett is technically still on their list this year too...

 

[TBellicious]

Please read whole page - absolute gold

Traded - 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

We're only 7 rounds into this season and there seems to be a lot of arrogance from Adelaide supporters with regards to their team. Adelaide are averaging 79 ppg which is already 9 ppg less than last year. Interestingly that's only 4 ppg more than Carlton are averaging. The Crows played an...

www.bigfooty.com

 

[ESKIE]

They all went to Dons for a barbie

We been there done that

Lol

 

[Hands On]

 

[thylacine60]

I'll drive the bus up, who's hopping on board?

pretty sure bob murphy took a designated bus full of mad dogs up there last time..........hootish..........

 

[Aphrodite]

View attachment 717442

Carp park

 

[Hands On]

Carp park

Sorry Fat Fingers

 

[thylacine60]

1. Jenkins 30yrs
2. Gibbs 30yrs
3. McKay 30yrs
4. Betts 32yrs
5. Often Rarely30yrs
6. Jacobs 31yrs
7. Douglas 32yrs
8. Sloane 29yrs
9. Walker 29yrs
10. Lynch 29yrs

You would think that a need to play some youngsters over the last month would be best for the long term interests of the club, somehow with them clinging on to a very faint finals chance maybe self preservation will be the riding factor in what choices will be made...
If the Saints roll them this week, that should make the decision black and white you would think...

 

[coryne]

Crazy that we could conceivably finish 16th with seven wins this year. Reid is a lucky boy.

Honestly Carlton finishing with 6-7 wins and ending at 15th-16th isn't too unusual.
Crows finishing on 10 win and, possibly, making the finals is the "lucky" part for Reid.

If we go over the last 8 years, and look where 7 wins and 88% and 11 wins and 108% (being generous for the Cows) would land you on the ladder

In 2018, Crows would be 13th and Carlton would be 15th
In 2017, Crows would be 10th and Carlton would be 15th
In 2016, Crows woulod be 10th and Carlton would be 14th
In 2015, Crows would be 10th and Carlton would be 13th
In 2014, Crows would be 11th and Carlton would be 14th
In 2013, Crows would be 9th and Carlton would be 16th
In 2012, Crows would be 11th and Carlton would be 14th
In 2011, Crows would be 8th and Carlton would be 14th

So Crows are sitting at the HIGH end of their range while Carlton would be sitting at the LOW end of their range.

 

[ESKIE]

1. Jenkins 30yrs
2. Gibbs 30yrs
3. McKay 30yrs
4. Betts 32yrs
5. Often 30yrs
6. Jacobs 31yrs
7. Douglas 32yrs
8. Sloane 29yrs
9. Walker 29yrs
10. Lynch 29yrs

You would think that a need to play some youngsters over the last month would be best for the long term interests of the club, somehow with them clinging on to a very faint finals chance maybe self preservation will be the riding factor in what choices will be made...
If the Saints roll them this week, that should make the decision black and white you would think...

So brave

 

[chelseacarlton]

We will beat Adelaide.

Edit: We beat Adelaide.

 

[El Topo]

Swans are in no mans land with their list. And they have Buddy's ridiculous contract hanging around their neck

I think the Swans are going to disappoint you, HBF. They've been quietly accumulating and getting games into talented youngsters on every line without completely bottoming out - watch them slingshot up back up the ladder in the next year or two

 

[Aphrodite]

1. Jenkins 30yrs
2. Gibbs 30yrs
3. McKay 30yrs
4. Betts 32yrs
5. Often 30yrs
6. Jacobs 31yrs
7. Douglas 32yrs
8. Sloane 29yrs
9. Walker 29yrs
10. Lynch 29yrs

You would think that a need to play some youngsters over the last month would be best for the long term interests of the club, somehow with them clinging on to a very faint finals chance maybe self preservation will be the riding factor in what choices will be made...
If the Saints roll them this week, that should make the decision black and white you would think...

Dad's Army!

 

[ESKIE]

I think the Swans are going to disappoint you, HBF. They've been quietly accumulating and getting games into talented youngsters on every line without completely bottoming out - watch them slingshot up back up the ladder in the next year or two

Good point you make el topo but they are bottom four at the moment .... 15th or equal 16th with us, that’s pretty on the bottom I would’ve thought
But they do seem to be flying under the radar as in no media scrutiny

 

[JustaBattler]

Re Sydney: My view is that as long as they have dangerous marking forwards ( Buddy/Blakey) and decent contested ball capability ( Parker/Heeney/Kennedy)- their home ground ( small SCG) gives them a definite home advantage. I see them as middling at worst with this year as the bottom end of their range.