How much longer can Bolton survive?

How long does Bolton have?

  • A quarter and a half

    Votes: 33 26.6%
  • One more round

    Votes: 15 12.1%
  • During their bye

    Votes: 76 61.3%

  • Total voters
    124

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agree with most of what u say. but Sos and those in charge of talent identification have let Bolton down. In the last 3-4 years nearly every other side have minimum 4-5 best 22 players who either arrived via pick 25 or later, rookie picks, cheap trades(2nd round+) etc.

The good teams

Geelong
- kelly (pick 25)
- stewart (40)
- myers (57)
- henry (rookie)
- ratugolea (43)
- o'connor (catb)

WC
- ryan (26)
- rioli (52)
- petrucelli (38)
- cole (36)

Pies
- mihocek (rookie)
- phillips (58)
- mayne (fa)
- roughead (trade 75)
- hoskin elliot (trade 2nd rd)
- maynard (30)

GWS
- de boer(dfa)
- williams (rookie)
- lloyd (rookie)
- finlayson (85)
- taylor (28)

Hawks
- impey (trade 37)
- henderson (dfa)
- cousins (rookie)
- worpel (45)
- hardwick (44)

The lions were in a similar situation to carlton but look at their value pickups and trades.

- andrews (61)
- lyons (dfa)
- mccarthy (trade 42)
- mcinerney (rookie)
- hodge (fa)

Even a crap team like the saints had a number of cheap recruits and bargain pickups from the last 4 years in their team on the weekend. the team that beat the blues.

- membrey (dfa)
- steele (future 2nd)
- marshall (rookie)
- brown (fa)
- sinclair (rookie)
- parker (47)
- battle (39)
- wilkie (rookie)
- kent (65)
- marsh (rookie)
- young (rookie)
- phillips (56)

If u compare with carltons additions from the last 4 yrs its clear the problem is list management. again im not talking about early picks. its the pick 25 and below, the rookies, the delisted players, free agents, category b.

- plowman
- phillips
- sumner
- lamb
all 4 for 28,77,95

- kerridge (menzel swap)
- gorringe (dfa)
- wright (dfa)
- jsos (53)
- fisher (27)
- macreadie (47)
- polson (59)
- williamson (61)
- kerr (65)
- glass-mccaster (rookie)
- gallucci (rookie)
- palmer (135)
- lobbe (trade 95)
- kennedy (trade 28)
- de koning (30)
- schumacher (70)
- garlett (78)
- shaw (rookie)
- alex silvagni (rookie)
- lebois (rookie)
- byrne (catb)
- mullet (dfa)
- o'shea (psd)

last years recruits,

goddard (rookie)
Fasolo (fa)
Setterfield (future 2nd)
Newman (future 4th)
bugg (rookie)
gibbons (rookie)
cottrell (rookie)


left out smedts, marchbank, pickett. trades involving rd1 picks

Most of those players are gone. Fisher has shown a bit. plowman just ok. Jsos actually been good. unfairly targeted due to his name. the point is, from the last 4 years no one that carlton has recruited or traded for from the 2nd round and beyond has really made a substantial difference. how can bolton be blamed when he hasnt been given the cattle to work with. Carlton cant just sit back and think their 1st round kids will work miracles. they need to hit late picks and get better mature guys.

of course other sides have busts. but no one would come close to carlton if you look at these past 4 years. every other club has found value late in the draft. or they have traded in better players. u cant blame bolton for that. This is all on SOS.

Add Menegola at Pick 66 in the 2015 draft, Parfitt at Pick 26 in the 2016 draft and Atkins as a rook at pick 11 in the 2018 draft to our Best 22 recruits outside the top 25 picks. Pretty much half our side is made up of rooks and late picks, haha. Only Selwood, Danger, Clark, Taylor, Henderson, Rohan and Cockatoo are first round picks out of our whole squad of 46. Stark difference to a lot of other clubs
 
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TheShardMan’s post is accurate. We haven’t done nearly enough at the back end of the draft in the last 4 years.

But...

It’s disingenuous to post only the 5 successes at other clubs, then post all of Carlton’s total picks, including misses, injuries, and guys who are still teenagers.

Carlton have some solid later picks if you just list the ‘hits’: Fisher, Newman, Plowman, Silvagni, McGovern all best 22, while Kerridge, Lamb and Phillips have played roles and a host of others the jury is out on because of their age.

But as a comparison, you cite Brisbane as having more success. Their full list in the same time frame:

Ben Keays
Rhys Mathieson
Sam Skinner
Jackson Paine
Reuben William
Tom Bell
Jarred Jansen
Josh Walker
Ryan Bastinac
Jack Frost
Jacob Allison
Corey Lyons
Archie Smith
Jake Barrett
Mitch Hinge
Oscar McInerney
Blake Grewar
Like Hodge
Toby Wooller
Connor Ballenden
Jack Paine
Claye Beams
Cain Hanley
Jarryd Lyons
Lincoln McCarthy
Marcus Adams
Tom Fullarton
James Madden
Noah Answerth
Connor McFayden
Tom Berry

Brisbane have basically zero injuries right now, and they had 7 of those guys play last week in a narrow loss to a team on 5 wins. In ranking points, the best contributor from that bunch was their 8th best player (Lyons) and 2 of their top 10 were from that list

Carlton also had 7 of our ‘cheap’ pickups play in a narrow loss to a team on 5 wins. One of those was our third best player and we also had 2 in our top 10.

So by my count, Carlton added 36 cheap players to get 7 currently in the team. Brisbane added 33 players to get 7 currently in the team

Geelong, who I suspect are the best at it - 37 selections in the same time frame. They beat a crappy team and had 12 cheap pickups in the last 4 years playing. Still a lot of misses in that, but when you are top of the ladder everyone remembers the hits.

Like I said, I think Carlton have done an awful job with that side of things. But everything looks awful when you are losing.

I didnt count mcgovern as he was a trade for a 1st round pick. Dont want to analyse 1st rounders or expensive trade acquisitions. was more interested in later picks and traded players who cost no more than a 2nd rounder. also delisted players, free agents etc. every club has failures but what im getting at is that other clubs have found solid performers, players who slot right into a best team lineup. Also players who have shown potential to be something special.

so far from the last 4 years, i cant find many carlton players that i can say have made a considerable difference to the team.

going by the criteria i mentioned earlier, i think carltons best 5 players in this group are probably

newman
jsos
fisher

its a struggle from there setterfield, kennedy, lang just havent got on enough to show much. And when they did play we have yet to see their best.


but if u apply the same criteria to other clubs its obvious theyve recruited or traded better with their later picks.

freo, and i absolutely hate ross, even we got some good deals in the last 4 yrs.

ed langdon (pick 54)
luke ryan (pick 66)
brandon matera (steakknives in weller deal)
nathan wilson (traded for pick 57)
connor blakely (pick 34)

gold coast have picked a few from later picks as well. automatic best 22 players this year.

Touk Miller (pick 29) vice captain in 4th year
Darcy Mcpherson (rookie)
Jarrod Witts (trade for pick 44 and 62) 3rd year at gc. Now co captain.
Sam Collins (rookie) was top 5 in afl in intercept marks before injury
Nick Holman (dfa) even he has cemented himself in the suns lineup

Not saying there havent been failures. But compared to other teams the blues recruits late recruits just havent had much impact.
 

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It’s a great analysis, but it presumes ‘nature over nurture’ ...

... that is, players perform to the same level of talent and ability irrespective of which club they end up. Which isn’t the case - clubs spend a lot of money and resources on development because it makes a difference.

For example, with the benefit of hindsight Carlton could have picked up Jayden Stephenson instead of Paddy Dow in the 2017 National Draft ... but if they had, would Jayden have reached the Rising Star winning form that he had at Collingwood? Maybe not.

Had Carlton picked up Mihocek instead of Collingwood, he may very well be on the list of discarded duds no longer at Carlton.


again im staying clear of comparisons with 1st rounders. just looking at late picks and mature ages. i get where ur coming from and one of my main points was carlton targeting the wrong type of players. They should have targeted hard bodies, fierce warrior types. not castoffs(mostly gws) who due to injury or otherwise have never lived up to their promise. at least with committed warrior types you know what theyll get. and those types help in shielding Cripps and the younger kids from too much physically draining work.
 
Add Menegola at Pick 66 in the 2015 draft, Parfitt at Pick 26 in the 2016 draft and Atkins as a rook at pick 11 in the 2018 draft to our Best 22 recruits outside the top 25 picks. Pretty much half our side is made up of rooks and late picks, haha. Only Selwood, Danger, Clark, Taylor, Henderson, Rohan and Cockatoo are first round picks out of our whole squad of 46. Stark difference to a lot of other clubs

ur right. rohan traded for pick 61. gryan miers pick 57 2 years ago. atkins rookie pick. all have made a huge difference this year. and for a small price too. blues just havent bothered much with the late picks. Stockpiling 1st rounders does not guarentee success.
 
agree with most of what u say. but Sos and those in charge of talent identification have let Bolton down. In the last 3-4 years nearly every other side have minimum 4-5 best 22 players who either arrived via pick 25 or later, rookie picks, cheap trades(2nd round+) etc.

The good teams

Geelong
- kelly (pick 25)
- stewart (40)
- myers (57)
- henry (rookie)
- ratugolea (43)
- o'connor (catb)

WC
- ryan (26)
- rioli (52)
- petrucelli (38)
- cole (36)

Pies
- mihocek (rookie)
- phillips (58)
- mayne (fa)
- roughead (trade 75)
- hoskin elliot (trade 2nd rd)
- maynard (30)

GWS
- de boer(dfa)
- williams (rookie)
- lloyd (rookie)
- finlayson (85)
- taylor (28)

Hawks
- impey (trade 37)
- henderson (dfa)
- cousins (rookie)
- worpel (45)
- hardwick (44)

The lions were in a similar situation to carlton but look at their value pickups and trades.

- andrews (61)
- lyons (dfa)
- mccarthy (trade 42)
- mcinerney (rookie)
- hodge (fa)

Even a crap team like the saints had a number of cheap recruits and bargain pickups from the last 4 years in their team on the weekend. the team that beat the blues.

- membrey (dfa)
- steele (future 2nd)
- marshall (rookie)
- brown (fa)
- sinclair (rookie)
- parker (47)
- battle (39)
- wilkie (rookie)
- kent (65)
- marsh (rookie)
- young (rookie)
- phillips (56)

If u compare with carltons additions from the last 4 yrs its clear the problem is list management. again im not talking about early picks. its the pick 25 and below, the rookies, the delisted players, free agents, category b.

- plowman
- phillips
- sumner
- lamb
all 4 for 28,77,95

- kerridge (menzel swap)
- gorringe (dfa)
- wright (dfa)
- jsos (53)
- fisher (27)
- macreadie (47)
- polson (59)
- williamson (61)
- kerr (65)
- glass-mccaster (rookie)
- gallucci (rookie)
- palmer (135)
- lobbe (trade 95)
- kennedy (trade 28)
- de koning (30)
- schumacher (70)
- garlett (78)
- shaw (rookie)
- alex silvagni (rookie)
- lebois (rookie)
- byrne (catb)
- mullet (dfa)
- o'shea (psd)

last years recruits,

goddard (rookie)
Fasolo (fa)
Setterfield (future 2nd)
Newman (future 4th)
bugg (rookie)
gibbons (rookie)
cottrell (rookie)


left out smedts, marchbank, pickett. trades involving rd1 picks

Most of those players are gone. Fisher has shown a bit. plowman just ok. Jsos actually been good. unfairly targeted due to his name. the point is, from the last 4 years no one that carlton has recruited or traded for from the 2nd round and beyond has really made a substantial difference. how can bolton be blamed when he hasnt been given the cattle to work with. Carlton cant just sit back and think their 1st round kids will work miracles. they need to hit late picks and get better mature guys.

of course other sides have busts. but no one would come close to carlton if you look at these past 4 years. every other club has found value late in the draft. or they have traded in better players. u cant blame bolton for that. This is all on SOS.
SOS is using the same technique as GWS but he forgot he doesn’t have an array of picks gifted to him.

Look at the premiership teams, plenty of blokes are rookies, trades ect something Carlton can’t get right.
 
again im staying clear of comparisons with 1st rounders. just looking at late picks and mature ages. i get where ur coming from and one of my main points was carlton targeting the wrong type of players. They should have targeted hard bodies, fierce warrior types. not castoffs(mostly gws) who due to injury or otherwise have never lived up to their promise. at least with committed warrior types you know what theyll get. and those types help in shielding Cripps and the younger kids from too much physically draining work.

Isn’t it the responsibility of the Senior Coach to specify the type of groceries to buy at the market, and then the Recruiting Manager goes off to market to procure those groceries?

It doesn’t work if the Senior Manager asks for Brussels Sprouts, and the recruiting manager comes back with a sack of potatoes instead. And I don’t think recruiters would do that.

If Carlton have made the mistake of not recruiting ‘warrior types’ then that’s probably more the coaches’ fault rather than the recruiters fault?

And sure, the recruiters can suggest “pumpkins are in season, we can buy pumpkins cheaply at the moment”, but still it is the coaches who need to sign off on the decision to buy pumpkins.

It was suggested in the media recently that there was some finger pointing between the coaching dept and recruiting dept at Carlton ...

... and I was just trying to figure out what the arguments and counter-arguments might have been there. Obviously - as you say - the coaching dept could blame the recruiters for bringing in duds. But the recruiters might well feel as if they recruited exactly the type of players the coaches asked for and/or the coaches haven’t been able to get the best out of those players.
 
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Isn't all this discussion largely mute when the coach has won of arguably the bottom 5 W-L records in the history of the game? Sure the drafting and recruiting may have been off the mark but in a comp that is getting increasingly even there is no excuse for the W-L record to be that bad.
 
Isn't all this discussion largely mute when the coach has won of arguably the bottom 5 W-L records in the history of the game?

No.

The discussion is voluminous, as it should be, for the reasons you stated ;)

Sure the drafting and recruiting may have been off the mark but in a comp that is getting increasingly even there is no excuse for the W-L record to be that bad.

It could be argued that the discussion is moot because this is the same club whose senior coach stated back in 2015 “I can’t see how we can lose a game this season” ...

... it turned out they were a basket case. They got a new coach, a new list manager, a new CEO, one or two new board members and four years later they remain a basket case.
 
Isn’t it the responsibility of the Senior Coach to specify the type of groceries to buy at the market, and then the Recruiting Manager goes off to market to procure those groceries?

It doesn’t work if the Senior Manager asks for Brussels Sprouts, and the recruiting manager comes back with a sack of potatoes instead. And I don’t think recruiters would do that.

If Carlton have made the mistake of not recruiting ‘warrior types’ then that’s probably more the coaches’ fault rather than the recruiters fault?

And sure, the recruiters can suggest “pumpkins are in season, we can buy pumpkins cheaply at the moment”, but still it is the coaches who need to sign off on the decision to buy pumpkins.

It was suggested in the media recently that there was some finger pointing between the coaching dept and recruiting dept at Carlton ...

... and I was just trying to figure out what the arguments and counter-arguments might have been there. Obviously - as you say - the coaching dept could blame the recruiters for bringing in duds. But the recruiters might well feel as if they recruited exactly the type of players the coaches asked for and/or the coaches haven’t been able to get the best out of those players.


No doubt as head coach bolton cant escape scrutiny. but have a look at the number of ex gws players. sos would have to be connected to them and be the main one pushing to trade or pick them up. But yes it could be the coach hasnt got the best out of them. just going by the available evidence, every other club has found a few great pickups, eventhough their coach isnt a great developer. Why is carlton different? Its not luck. Theyre just recruting the wrong types. imho.

Isn't all this discussion largely mute when the coach has won of arguably the bottom 5 W-L records in the history of the game? Sure the drafting and recruiting may have been off the mark but in a comp that is getting increasingly even there is no excuse for the W-L record to be that bad.

no doubt if he doesn't get another 2-3 wins this year he cant survive. Just saying if he goes sos must surely follow him out the door.
 
the next coach in gets the good ride

there is some good talent and potential talent

they would only have to do a mini clean out

the coach sacking is always a good entrée to a new culture (good or bad)
 
No doubt as head coach bolton cant escape scrutiny. but have a look at the number of ex gws players. sos would have to be connected to them and be the main one pushing to trade or pick them up. But yes it could be the coach hasnt got the best out of them.

- Were those ex-GWS players being selected to play when they were at GWS? (The implication being that GWS had been performing much better than Carlton has been)

- What was SOS’s record of successfully recruiting late draft recruits when he was at GWS?

just going by the available evidence, every other club has found a few great pickups, eventhough their coach isnt a great developer. Why is carlton different? Its not luck. Theyre just recruting the wrong types. imho.

Collingwood have been generally happy with the players they’ve taken from GWS (Adams, Treloar, Will Hoskin-Elliott, although Tim Golds was a bust) ... but they fall into the early draft pick category.
 

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- Were those ex-GWS players being selected to play when they were at GWS? (The implication being that GWS had been performing much better than Carlton has been)

- What was SOS’s record of successfully recruiting late draft recruits when he was at GWS?



Collingwood have been generally happy with the players they’ve taken from GWS (Adams, Treloar, Will Hoskin-Elliott, although Tim Golds was a bust) ... but they fall into the early draft pick category.


disregarding 1st rounders, i count around 26 ex gws players who were picked up cheap through draft, trade etc.

Of these 26, 10 ended up at carlton. setterfield is young so leave him aside for a moment. plowman and kennedy may play roles but they dont make a massive difference. the other 16 or so picked up by other clubs i think 9 or 10 are still there. i just think sos rated his gws boys higher than other list managers. Either through injury or form or lack of opportunity quite a few have gone to other clubs. mostly they werent proven players when they left. especially as these players left cheaply. I just think sos gambled too much with the list when he should have targeted solid, mature, warrior types from state leagues and other clubs. when u add his unproven gws castoff kids with new draftees, its obvious why they are struggling.
 
Primary failures to recruit mature aged players in the mid and forward line. The forward line is being headed by Curnow and McKay with no genuine mature ages forwards to assists - Gov brought in who is injury prone and Fas hasn’t worked out (to date). Plonking Ed Curnow there has been silly.
Midfield is being carried by a 24 year old who is supported by players aged 18-22. Not sustainable. Murphy is more of an impediment nowadays in the midfield so all the pressure is placed on Cripps.
Although Carlton is being heavily scored against, the backline has the best blend of youth and experience - though Daisy and possibly Simmo departing at season’s end leaves a bit of an imbalance but it’s still the most settled part of the team.
 
I agree completely. He’s been rock solid in his message for 3 years and it’s a tough gig to keep that up.

But I’m not sure the players are that conscious of things, they just know they aren’t happy. Even last year when we got flogged they seemed to be on board and we didn’t see any of the frustration we are now. 4 weeks ago I would have said the same. But the last 6 weeks has been brutal on everyone Carlton - blowing games we were in the box seat to win against GC, Hawthorn and Collingwood, interspersed with horrific losses to North and GWS and our best win in years vs the Bulldogs. And just quietly, travelling 3x in that time period and having a host of late Sunday bizarre time slots. It’s been rough and you can see frustrated players now

If that continues and grows, the club has to do something to reinvigorate things. A new voice is the easiest, and lets everyone hit the ‘reset’ switch, taking the mentality back to neutral.

Not saying it’s fair, or even the best thing to do. But it’ll be the one that has to happen. IMO Bolton’s job depends 100% on the mental state of a core of the players (Cripps, Curnow, Weitering, Docherty, and probably Murphy, Walsh, SPS and McKay). If there’s even a hint that one if the above is going to ask out...

Is that because they expect to be better by now?
I dno if thats the message that the club has given them: "we are better now, higher standards apply" and the leaders like Curnow and Cripps are just trying to uphold it all?

Theres been a lot of good, among some absolute disgusting stuff.
 
agree with most of what u say. but Sos and those in charge of talent identification have let Bolton down. In the last 3-4 years nearly every other side have minimum 4-5 best 22 players who either arrived via pick 25 or later, rookie picks, cheap trades(2nd round+) etc.

The good teams

Geelong
- kelly (pick 25)
- stewart (40)
- myers (57)
- henry (rookie)
- ratugolea (43)
- o'connor (catb)

WC
- ryan (26)
- rioli (52)
- petrucelli (38)
- cole (36)

Pies
- mihocek (rookie)
- phillips (58)
- mayne (fa)
- roughead (trade 75)
- hoskin elliot (trade 2nd rd)
- maynard (30)

GWS
- de boer(dfa)
- williams (rookie)
- lloyd (rookie)
- finlayson (85)
- taylor (28)

Hawks
- impey (trade 37)
- henderson (dfa)
- cousins (rookie)
- worpel (45)
- hardwick (44)

The lions were in a similar situation to carlton but look at their value pickups and trades.

- andrews (61)
- lyons (dfa)
- mccarthy (trade 42)
- mcinerney (rookie)
- hodge (fa)

Even a crap team like the saints had a number of cheap recruits and bargain pickups from the last 4 years in their team on the weekend. the team that beat the blues.

- membrey (dfa)
- steele (future 2nd)
- marshall (rookie)
- brown (fa)
- sinclair (rookie)
- parker (47)
- battle (39)
- wilkie (rookie)
- kent (65)
- marsh (rookie)
- young (rookie)
- phillips (56)

If u compare with carltons additions from the last 4 yrs its clear the problem is list management. again im not talking about early picks. its the pick 25 and below, the rookies, the delisted players, free agents, category b.

- plowman
- phillips
- sumner
- lamb
all 4 for 28,77,95

- kerridge (menzel swap)
- gorringe (dfa)
- wright (dfa)
- jsos (53)
- fisher (27)
- macreadie (47)
- polson (59)
- williamson (61)
- kerr (65)
- glass-mccaster (rookie)
- gallucci (rookie)
- palmer (135)
- lobbe (trade 95)
- kennedy (trade 28)
- de koning (30)
- schumacher (70)
- garlett (78)
- shaw (rookie)
- alex silvagni (rookie)
- lebois (rookie)
- byrne (catb)
- mullet (dfa)
- o'shea (psd)

last years recruits,

goddard (rookie)
Fasolo (fa)
Setterfield (future 2nd)
Newman (future 4th)
bugg (rookie)
gibbons (rookie)
cottrell (rookie)


left out smedts, marchbank, pickett. trades involving rd1 picks

Most of those players are gone. Fisher has shown a bit. plowman just ok. Jsos actually been good. unfairly targeted due to his name. the point is, from the last 4 years no one that carlton has recruited or traded for from the 2nd round and beyond has really made a substantial difference. how can bolton be blamed when he hasnt been given the cattle to work with. Carlton cant just sit back and think their 1st round kids will work miracles. they need to hit late picks and get better mature guys.

of course other sides have busts. but no one would come close to carlton if you look at these past 4 years. every other club has found value late in the draft. or they have traded in better players. u cant blame bolton for that. This is all on SOS.

Biased but the crows have a lovely record of picking up late value players.

Walker: 75
Sloane: 44
Laird: 5 (Rookie draft)
Ellis-Yolman: 54
Greenwood: Cat B
Atkins: 81
M Crouch: 23
Kelly: 40 (rookie draft)
Keath: Cat B
 
No we don’t. We have glaring issues at the selection table, which is partly due to the terrible system of football we are trying to desperately implement.

Probably not all Bolton’s fault, but he looks done. If and when he goes, the blowtorch needs to be applied to the football department.

Well you do have a lot of injuries. Full stop. End of story.

Whether thats why out of form players are keeping their spots, maybe I was wrong.
 
He’s on 500k, the same amount he was on at Adelaide but he got a longer contract. 3-4 years IIRC.

Given
- all the youth at Carlton
- a Cat B rookie who is being paid outside the salary cap
- McGovern only on $500K
- Daisy and Fasolo reportedly on modest contracts
- Clubs must pay minimum of 95% of cap space

Where is all the salary cap going at Carlton?
 
Given
- all the youth at Carlton
- a Cat B rookie who is being paid outside the salary cap
- McGovern only on $500K
- Daisy and Fasolo reportedly on modest contracts
- Clubs must pay minimum of 95% of cap space

Where is all the salary cap going at Carlton?

The obvious answer would be straight up against a wall.

Such is the nature of minimum cap spends.
 
Given
- all the youth at Carlton
- a Cat B rookie who is being paid outside the salary cap
- McGovern only on $500K
- Daisy and Fasolo reportedly on modest contracts
- Clubs must pay minimum of 95% of cap space

Where is all the salary cap going at Carlton?

IIRC Curnow and Cripps are on reasonably big contracts. We would have extended McKay for quite a bit too.

Fasolo is on a one-year contract, but it’s a decent size.

I’d imagine Jones would be on a decent amount, plus guys like Plowman, Marchbank etc would have their contracts incrementally increase.

All speculation though obviously.
 
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