How the coalition can win the next Victorian election

[Johnny Bananas]

I think one way the Vic Libs can win is to beat Labor at their own game on public transport. If they offered a credible alternative plan for public transport investment to SRL, that was less expensive but still significant, and spread across more areas, they might convince people they're not the do-nothing party they have come to be seen as.

If I were writing this hypothetical transport policy, it'd include previous promises like the rail extension to Clyde, and electrification to Baxter, Wyndham Vale and Melton, but I'd also commit to introducing a serious uplift in public transport for Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, in the form of reintroducing trams, or at least bus rapid transit.

 

[The Punter]

I think one way the Vic Libs can win is to beat Labor at their own game on public transport. If they offered a credible alternative plan for public transport investment to SRL, that was less expensive but still significant, and spread across more areas, they might convince people they're not the do-nothing party they have come to be seen as.

If I were writing this hypothetical transport policy, it'd include previous promises like the rail extension to Clyde, and electrification to Baxter, Wyndham Vale and Melton, but I'd also commit to introducing a serious uplift in public transport for Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo, in the form of reintroducing trams, or at least bus rapid transit.

We have a credibility gap on PT. When the Libs made significant promises regarding regional PT at the 2018 election, the most common response from voters was "it'll never happen".

But as a matter of good policy, the Coalition should absolutely be promising the upgrades you have listed.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

We have a credibility gap on PT. When the Libs made significant promises regarding regional PT at the 2018 election, the most common response from voters was "it'll never happen".

But as a matter of good policy, the Coalition should absolutely be promising the upgrades you have listed.

Indeed they do have a credibility gap. Tony Abbott's open contempt for public transport and Napthine's championing of East-West link over public transport projects did a lot of damage in that regard.

Is the promise you're referring to the one about European-style diesel trains to Geelong? If so, I don't blame the public for being skeptical, given the cost, and the recognition amongst many people that electric trains are superior to diesel for frequent operation.

Personally I thought SRL was also a bit of a fanciful policy, but Andrews at least had credibility on the issue and did actually follow through.

 

[Todman]

Vett all candidates so to keep the nutters at bay.

Promote the ideal of future hope.

Redirect spending into areas that need additional funds.

Remove red tape and streamline government planning.

Give IBAC some real powers.

Trim the fat out of the Public Services.

 

[peetoo]

Vett all candidates so to keep the nutters at bay.

Promote the ideal of future hope.

Redirect spending into areas that need additional funds.

Remove red tape and streamline government planning.

Give IBAC some real powers.

Trim the fat out of the Public Services. *

* don’t fill the gaps with consultancies or apparatchiks

 

[The Punter]

* don’t fill the gaps with consultancies or apparatchiks

Trimming the actual fat (upper and middle management which has been massively expanded under Andrews and Allan for no tangible benefit to the public) won't leave any gaps.

 

[Saint]

Trimming the actual fat (upper and middle management which has been massively expanded under Andrews and Allan for no tangible benefit to the public) won't leave any gaps.

Yeah, if you take Utopia as the example, the number of Kitty Flanagans and Lehmos ballooned within the Govt under Andrews.

There's been a lot of chopping recently. But it seems to have been across the board.

If I was the Libs/Nats, I would be thinking about what minority Govt might look like, that it might be preferable to voters than more 2PP. That might mean the Nats split from the Libs (at least on campaigning). Provides more scope to hit the ALP with broadsides from more angles. Rather than attacking the ALP/Greens and their "leftist" agenda, join the Greens in just attacking the ALP. Who cares if it's from the other direction. Stacks on.

 

[The Punter]

Yeah, if you take Utopia as the example, the number of Kitty Flanagans and Lehmos ballooned within the Govt under Andrews.

There's been a lot of chopping recently. But it seems to have been across the board.

If I was the Libs/Nats, I would be thinking about what minority Govt might look like, that it might be preferable to voters than more 2PP. That might mean the Nats split from the Libs (at least on campaigning). Provides more scope to hit the ALP with broadsides from more angles. Rather than attacking the ALP/Greens and their "leftist" agenda, join the Greens in just attacking the ALP. Who cares if it's from the other direction. Stacks on.

I don't see a way around the LNP getting to 45 seats on their own. No independents currently in the Legislative Council, and no record of Victorian crossbenchers (other than expelled former party members) giving support to the LNP. It's a steep mountain but it appears there is only one path to the summit.

 

[Saint]

I don't see a way around the LNP getting to 45 seats on their own. No independents currently in the Legislative Council, and no record of Victorian crossbenchers (other than expelled former party members) giving support to the LNP. It's a steep mountain but it appears there is only one path to the summit.

I was hinting at not presenting as a coalition (at all, ever) would be a better way of getting more seats. Have them all go against each other in the outer suburban seats.

How on earth did the ALP win Ripon? Because the Nats weren't running against the Libs.

2010: Libs 34%, ALP 42%, Nats 11.5%, ALP won 53-47
2014: Libs 33%, ALP 35%, Nats 18%. Libs won with Nats preferences 50.7-49.3
2018: Libs 39%, ALP 38%, Nats didn't run. Libs won 50.02 - 49.98
2022: Libs 36%, ALP 39%, Nats didn't run. ALP won 53-47

It's pure madness to think that the Nats didn't run in towns like Donald, Dunolly, Creswick and Wedderburn and everything in between. Anyone who thinks the Libs would represent these areas (while focusing on outer-suburbs) is talking nonsense.

It's much better to have parties running in these areas who are more focused on these local issues.

The Libs will NOT do better without the Nats in these types of seats. The Libs managed to hold on during the 2018 wipeout, but I think they might have held on in 2022 if the Nats were running with them. The Nats built up to 18% then the Libs sent them packing. It's absurd.

 

[The Punter]

I was hinting at not presenting as a coalition (at all, ever) would be a better way of getting more seats. Have them all go against each other in the outer suburban seats.

How on earth did the ALP win Ripon? Because the Nats weren't running against the Libs.

2010: Libs 34%, ALP 42%, Nats 11.5%, ALP won 53-47
2014: Libs 33%, ALP 35%, Nats 18%. Libs won with Nats preferences 50.7-49.3
2018: Libs 39%, ALP 38%, Nats didn't run. Libs won 50.02 - 49.98
2022: Libs 36%, ALP 39%, Nats didn't run. ALP won 53-47

It's pure madness to think that the Nats didn't run in towns like Donald, Dunolly, Creswick and Wedderburn and everything in between. Anyone who thinks the Libs would represent these areas (while focusing on outer-suburbs) is talking nonsense.

It's much better to have parties running in these areas who are more focused on these local issues.

The Libs will NOT do better without the Nats in these types of seats. The Libs managed to hold on during the 2018 wipeout, but I think they might have held on in 2022 if the Nats were running with them. The Nats built up to 18% then the Libs sent them packing. It's absurd.

I think the Nats were requested to run in Ripon in 2022 but didn't because money was tight (and is permanently for everyone in state politics except for the ALP due to their fundraising laws). And Donald was out of Ripon by 2022 (a Nat stronghold). The Nats don't have much sway in Creswick.

Also, in 2014 the Nats ran Scott Turner, former Richmond footballer from Ararat. He had name recognition and won votes in areas traditionally without a Nat presence.

There was basically no swing in Ripon in 2022 - it was all the replacement of good LNP areas like Charlton and Donald with towns along the Glenelg Highway that are better areas for the ALP (such as Smythesdale, Linton and Skipton).

 

[Saint]

I think the Nats were requested to run in Ripon in 2022 but didn't because money was tight (and is permanently for everyone in state politics except for the ALP due to their fundraising laws). And Donald was out of Ripon by 2022 (a Nat stronghold). The Nats don't have much sway in Creswick.

Also, in 2014 the Nats ran Scott Turner, former Richmond footballer from Ararat. He had name recognition and won votes in areas traditionally without a Nat presence.

There was basically no swing in Ripon in 2022 - it was all the replacement of good LNP areas like Charlton and Donald with towns along the Glenelg Highway that are better areas for the ALP (such as Smythesdale, Linton and Skipton).

Still, you'd think the Nats would be good for 10% primary, minimum.

Avoca, St Arnaud....even the strongholds around Ballarat are probably as much anti-Liberal than they are pro-ALP these days.

Expecting country people to vote Liberal is crazy.

 

[peetoo]

Yeah, if you take Utopia as the example, the number of Kitty Flanagans and Lehmos ballooned within the Govt under Andrews.

There's been a lot of chopping recently. But it seems to have been across the board.

If I was the Libs/Nats, I would be thinking about what minority Govt might look like, that it might be preferable to voters than more 2PP. That might mean the Nats split from the Libs (at least on campaigning). Provides more scope to hit the ALP with broadsides from more angles. Rather than attacking the ALP/Greens and their "leftist" agenda, join the Greens in just attacking the ALP. Who cares if it's from the other direction. Stacks on.

Don’t see much different with LNP in the utopia stakes tbh. Seemed to heave an obsession with moving departments int thir country electorates, but still expected service levels, not to drop

 

[Saint]

Don’t see much different with LNP in the utopia stakes tbh. Seemed to heave an obsession with moving departments int thir country electorates, but still expected service levels, not to drop

The TAC has successfully moved to Geelong. RRV is now based in Ballarat, they just didn't bring DoT/VicRoads out with them like they originally planned. That's a lot different to bloat. Corporate world had been doing the same thing in trying to decentralise, but WFH has changed all that anyway.

 

[The Punter]

The TAC has successfully moved to Geelong. RRV is now based in Ballarat, they just didn't bring DoT/VicRoads out with them like they originally planned. That's a lot different to bloat. Corporate world had been doing the same thing in trying to decentralise, but WFH has changed all that anyway.

Bringing VicRoads to Ballarat was the Napthine Government's plan and it was shelved almost as soon as Andrews was elected.

Also, if country people voting Liberal is crazy, then them voting ALP (who ripped money from their local councils to maintain their extensive road portfolios) must be several levels more of mental illness.

 

[peetoo]

The TAC has successfully moved to Geelong. RRV is now based in Ballarat, they just didn't bring DoT/VicRoads out with them like they originally planned. That's a lot different to bloat. Corporate world had been doing the same thing in trying to decentralise, but WFH has changed all that anyway.

Yep paid people to relocate, who could have not moved and still done their jobs

 

[Saint]

Bringing VicRoads to Ballarat was the Napthine Government's plan and it was shelved almost as soon as Andrews was elected.

Also, if country people voting Liberal is crazy, then them voting ALP (who ripped money from their local councils to maintain their extensive road portfolios) must be several levels more of mental illness.

They now have RRV headquartered there, which was taken out of VicRoads before the rest of VicRoads was absorbed into DoT.

I agree, if I lived in the country and wasn't in manufacturing or transport (many in and around Ballarat are, at Alstom/Bombardier and others), there's no way I'd vote for the ALP either. The Nats pretty much only exist to get ridiculous exemptions and benefits from the Libs via their coalition. Benefits they would never have gotten without holding a balance of power. Never sure why they've partly given up that power by not running against Libs when Libs invade the outback.

 

[The Punter]

They now have RRV headquartered there, which was taken out of VicRoads before the rest of VicRoads was absorbed into DoT.

I agree, if I lived in the country and wasn't in manufacturing or transport (many in and around Ballarat are, at Alstom/Bombardier and others), there's no way I'd vote for the ALP either. The Nats pretty much only exist to get ridiculous exemptions and benefits from the Libs via their coalition. Benefits they would never have gotten without holding a balance of power. Never sure why they've partly given up that power by not running against Libs when Libs invade the outback.

I mean, there is no Victorian outback. Perhaps once you get a certain way North and West...

There are traditional Liberal heartlands outside of metropolitan Melbourne, such as the North-East and South-West.

And Victorian Nats aren't the same breed as the Barnaby types you get north and further north of the Murray.

I think most country people would like adequately maintained roads. Not really happening at the moment while the government's priority is to provide another way to catch train transport from Cheltenham to Box Hill...

 

[Saint]

I mean, there is no Victorian outback. Perhaps once you get a certain way North and West...

There are traditional Liberal heartlands outside of metropolitan Melbourne, such as the North-East and South-West.

And Victorian Nats aren't the same breed as the Barnaby types you get north and further north of the Murray.

I think most country people would like adequately maintained roads. Not really happening at the moment while the government's priority is to provide another way to catch train transport from Cheltenham to Box Hill...

I was more thinking Gippsland (ex-Morwell and surrounds) and the Mallee areas where agriculture is or was the main business in most towns.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It's pure madness to think that the Nats didn't run in towns like Donald, Dunolly, Creswick and Wedderburn and everything in between. Anyone who thinks the Libs would represent these areas (while focusing on outer-suburbs) is talking nonsense.

It's much better to have parties running in these areas who are more focused on these local issues.

I'm surprised that a Katter-style non-Coalition rural interest party hasn't taken hold in any other states, unless you count the WA Nationals (and briefly, SFF). Queensland might even be getting a second one soon (over opposition to renewable energy projects) before Victoria gets its first.

 

[The Punter]

I'm surprised that a Katter-style non-Coalition rural interest party hasn't taken hold in any other states, unless you count the WA Nationals (and briefly, SFF). Queensland might even be getting a second one soon (over opposition to renewable energy projects) before Victoria gets its first.

You need large population centres with separate identities to the capital cities for that to happen IMO. The main regional cities in Victoria just aren't different enough to Melbourne, with Geelong and Ballarat close enough for many to commute from one to the other. The majority of Queensland's population live outside Brisbane.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The majority of Queensland's population live outside Brisbane.

But that doesn't mean they are for rural interests, given the second and third biggest cities in Queensland are the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, which are as close to Brisbane as Geelong and the Mornington Peninsula are to Melbourne. Neither of those places will ever vote for Katter.

 

[The Punter]

But that doesn't mean they are for rural interests, given the second and third biggest cities in Queensland are the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, which are as close to Brisbane as Geelong and the Mornington Peninsula are to Melbourne. Neither of those places will ever vote for Katter.

There are significant towns with unique identities a long way away from Brisbane. With such a diverse population (between capital cities and FNQ) it's easy to see why a specific party would find fertile ground. Those conditions don't exist in Victoria.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

There are significant towns with unique identities a long way away from Brisbane. With such a diverse population (between capital cities and FNQ) it's easy to see why a specific party would find fertile ground. Those conditions don't exist in Victoria.

That's true, just don't bring out the "majority of the population is outside Brisbane" argument to explain it when that has nothing to do with it. It won't even be true anymore within a few years anyway.

 

[peetoo]

LNP rarely in state govt since sir joh.

I’d guess they have been in power more in ‘lefty’ Victoria

 

[Saint]

Ballarat is Union heartland, Bendigo too, they've still got a bit of manufacturing, plus a history of unionism going back to the Goldrush. Allan is from Bendigo.

But the opposition would be more successful if they did attack (and defend) on multiple fronts. You wouldn't think the Nats have more seats than the Greens by the amount of press they get. Nats have more than twice as many seats, but we hear a lot more from the Greens in the press. The Nats get local press, but they need state-wide representation, and need to speak over the interstate federal leadership like Ley and Joyce who make them look stupid.