Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[catempire]

Dogs vs giants? Nah on their day i actually think the giants are a better team than the dogs-but venue does make it a 50-50.

Which would make the odds off, my exact point.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Which would make the odds off, my exact point.

Thats fair..i thought you meant the dogs were more certain..i think kingsley will really challenge them.

 

[catempire]

Thats fair..i thought you meant the dogs were more certain..i think kingsley will really challenge them.

Yes GWS are playing as well as anyone right now.

 

[Mr Meow]

Alright, everyone hold your laughter at imagining us thrashing any team after last night's performance.

But....

If Freo beat Port by about 20 points and Bulldogs beat GWS by any margin...it looks like about a 100 point win against WCE would be enough to climb into 2nd. I realise we play first so the players won't know what they need, but they would vaguely assume a 100+ point win is what it takes to keep them "in it".

Essentially we need Freo to be fired up and efficient next week, after we absolutely pulverise the Eagles. Then we need the Bulldogs to win to lock in a finals spot.

Unlikely that this all lines up, but West Coast at their absolute worst can be pretty damn bad and the other sides have finals on the line while playing at home (sort of for the Bulldogs).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Alright, everyone hold your laughter at imagining us thrashing any team after last night's performance.

But....

If Freo beat Port by about 20 points and Bulldogs beat GWS by any margin...it looks like about a 100 point win against WCE would be enough to climb into 2nd. I realise we play first so the players won't know what they need, but they would vaguely assume a 100+ point win is what it takes to keep them "in it".

Essentially we need Freo to be fired up and efficient next week, after we absolutely pulverise the Eagles. Then we need the Bulldogs to win to lock in a finals spot.

Unlikely that this all lines up, but West Coast at their absolute worst can be pretty damn bad and the other sides have finals on the line while playing at home (sort of for the Bulldogs).

Agree but 2 issues there.
1. We tend not to be great at building %.
And 2. The freo game will be a dead rubber by the time it starts unless st kilda beat carlton (so i hope st kilda do). Then if freo need to win to get on they might beat port.
Whats probably more likely is port win, the giants lose narrowly (less than 18 pts) and we beat wce by 60ish to pass the giants into 3rd.

 

[Mr Meow]

Agree but 2 issues there.
1. We tend not to be great at building %.
And 2. The freo game will be a dead rubber by the time it starts unless st kilda beat carlton (so i hope st kilda do). Then if freo need to win to get on they might beat port.
Whats probably more likely is port win, the giants lose narrowly (less than 18 pts) and we beat wce by 60ish to pass the giants into 3rd.

True.

St Kilda will pose Carlton a challenge under the roof, I think. They can run hot and cold but surely they will carry some momentum in.

Eventually we have to belt one of the worst team's this century...right? West Coast have served up some real shockers at GMHBA and surely the Cats players will have a) received a rocket and b) recovered from their Perth trip lethargy.

 

[STPer18]

I'd settle for anywhere in the top 4. Week off + double chance and just go for broke.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'd settle for anywhere in the top 4. Week off + double chance and just go for broke.

Especially after this loss, expectations are very low from basically everyone at this point.

It does give a bit of a "free hit" element to it, even though of course any time you are finalists you have ambition to go deep.

But at times Geelong have played better when the opposition has been more hyped (Essendon, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Fremantle I feel a lot of people such as neutrals expected us to lose). Obviously it wasn't the case during our massive losing streak before we started playing those teams. But really I'd say our good runs of form had neutrals expecting us to beat Bulldogs and St Kilda, yet we massively stuffed those games up. Almost the same against Adelaide.

I'm sure it's all irrelevant and clutching at straws, but perhaps this group does do better when expectations are dialled down.

 

[STPer18]

Especially after this loss, expectations are very low from basically everyone at this point.

It does give a bit of a "free hit" element to it, even though of course any time you are finalists you have ambition to go deep.

But at times Geelong have played better when the opposition has been more hyped (Essendon, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Fremantle I feel a lot of people such as neutrals expected us to lose). Obviously it wasn't the case during our massive losing streak before we started playing those teams. But really I'd say our good runs of form had neutrals expecting us to beat Bulldogs and St Kilda, yet we massively stuffed those games up. Almost the same against Adelaide.

I'm sure it's all irrelevant and clutching at straws, but perhaps this group does do better when expectations are dialled down.

Speaking purely as a supporter, but having lowish expectations at the start of the year + mainly the premiership in 2022 means I'll be able to watch on far more comfortably without the nagging thought they we're 'wasting' a strong list. Compare that to the main contenders:

Swans been the best team all year and have lost three grand finals since 2014.
Port have been prelim mainstays for ages now but still nothing to show for it. Haven't won since 2004.
GWS never won one ever, have been thereabouts too.
Brisbane are kinda like Port until last year when they almost went all the way and lost it by under a kick. Haven't won since 2003.

Might just be a coping mechanism but having a recent flag in the bank and a list that no one on the outside rated feels like we're in the 'just happy to be here' bracket and not the 'dire straits must capitalise now or potentially never' like the others. Of course the club will be thinking differently but as a supporter it's a nice place to be.

 

[CHAWKTS]

So I have read on BF (from Cats posters) that Cats have had an easy draw - feeding into the narrative that we are pretenders. I decided to have a look with facts rather than opinions…The best way of measuring it is how many games played against fellow Top 8 teams…(as of round 23)

Geelong has the second hardest draw in terms of playing against the second most fellow top 8 teams. In the end it isnt a massive difference (enough to say somehow we are hard done by) but debunks the theory that we have had a free ride.

We deserve to be there as much as anyone else

GSW have played 12 games (6 home and 6 away)
Cats 10 (6 away)
Sydney 10 (6 away)
Bulldogs 10 (4 away)
Carlton 10 (4 away)
Hawks 9 (4 away)
Lions 8 (4 and 4)
Port 8 (4 and 4)

 

[CHAWKTS]

BTW, Dogs still a decent chance to miss the 8.

Yes..that is the major driver on the ladder predictor (along with Port and Freo)…

I don’t think GWS has beaten Dogs in Ballarat? Although my memory serves me correctly it has always been rain and wind - if we get a “sydney day” it might even things up. Imagine after all this hype if they miss?

 

[catempire]

Yes..that is the major driver on the ladder predictor (along with Port and Freo)…

I don’t think GWS has beaten Dogs in Ballarat? Although my memory serves me correctly it has always been rain and wind - if we get a “sydney day” it might even things up. Imagine after all this hype if they miss?

GWS won there last year

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney - Sat, 29-Jul-2023 1:45 PM - Match Stats

 

[Pure_Ownage]

GWS won there last year

AFL Tables - Western Bulldogs v Greater Western Sydney - Sat, 29-Jul-2023 1:45 PM - Match Stats

Even if the dogs lose i reckon they make it as i dont think freo will win.
But its ironic that they have 13wins and a good % and they still arent safe yet.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The most likely scenario is a QF v Swans in Sydney

 

[dazbroncos]

One thing I think worth noting .. well 2 things actually.

one - we knackered ourselves like no other and dropped the game with so much on the line it was deplorable really.

No excuses there

With that said, there were very, very few that during preseason were willing to suggest to make Top 4 at seasons end.

Many had us off the cliff into the ravine and not making 9-12, let alone the 8 and certainly not Top 4.

Now Top 4 is not fully locked but its more than likely.

And we have been doing it without Tomma for about 6 weeks which we all know is not the Tomma of years past but he would still draw the best defender from the opposition regardless of his output.

Danger has also missed 8 week or so.

All points that can be countered - but all im saying is that once again the Geelong Football CLub have put themselves into a position at seasons end to contend. How far we can take that contending remains to be seen but on a macro level it s a remarkable achievement.

Now for them to take these next 5 weeks like their lives depend on it and get it done. We have shown our best is good enough and our worst is abysmal. If we can play 5 over the next 7 weeks and get 5 wins.....

Dare to dream.... but **** its gonna take an almighy effort and is highly unlikely to occur... but thats part of the fun right!

Also... we in the middle of a rebuild in a handicapped league with all the stipulations against us AND we are still annoying the shit out of every other fan base and the AFL by being where we are - and dont forget the media who luv to circle and pick at our weaknesses. They are all pissed we are still here. Melbourne, Eagles, Tiggers and Doggies have all won flags and dropped back to the bottom. North and Freo aint even won one and still cant. Essendon havent won a final since Jesus played for Nazareth and GCS after getting enough Rd 1 handouts from the AFL to sink the Bismark still cant make the Finals let alone win one

We are doing ok in totality ... but **** me Id luv then to get this right and snag another one.

GO CAtters

 

[fpm84]

Rohan Connolly is tipping us for the flag - and yes, the article was written post-Saints game :

Best of the bunch? Why the 'experienced' Cats loom large in flag race

With one week remaining, there's no clear AFL premiership favourite. And while every contender has pros and cons with September around the corner, there's one club that just looms large with significant finals experience, writes Rohan Connolly.

www.espn.com.au

 

[JohnZ]

Rohan Connolly is tipping us for the flag - and yes, the article was written post-Saints game :

Best of the bunch? Why the 'experienced' Cats loom large in flag race

With one week remaining, there's no clear AFL premiership favourite. And while every contender has pros and cons with September around the corner, there's one club that just looms large with significant finals experience, writes Rohan Connolly.

www.espn.com.au

Written or published? Big difference...

 

[fpm84]

Written or published? Big difference...

Seemingly written:

The Cats have slipped to fifth in flag betting at $9, behind Sydney ($4), Port Adelaide ($5), GWS ($6) and Brisbane ($8) after Saturday night's dramatic fade-out against St Kilda, when they uncharacteristically surrendered a 33-point half-time lead, conceding 12 of the next 15 goals to the Saints.

Might be fair enough, too, even allowing for the fact Geelong plays West Coast at home on Saturday, and the Eagles, after Sunday's insipid performance at home against Carlton, are clearly impatient for holidays to start.

But I will still argue that the Cats are a safer flag bet than any of those four teams above them in the market, let alone those at longer odds. For a number of reasons, but mostly in comparison to their flag rivals.

 

[STPer18]

One thing I think worth noting .. well 2 things actually.

one - we knackered ourselves like no other and dropped the game with so much on the line it was deplorable really.

No excuses there

With that said, there were very, very few that during preseason were willing to suggest to make Top 4 at seasons end.

Many had us off the cliff into the ravine and not making 9-12, let alone the 8 and certainly not Top 4.

Now Top 4 is not fully locked but its more than likely.

And we have been doing it without Tomma for about 6 weeks which we all know is not the Tomma of years past but he would still draw the best defender from the opposition regardless of his output.

Danger has also missed 8 week or so.

All points that can be countered - but all im saying is that once again the Geelong Football CLub have put themselves into a position at seasons end to contend. How far we can take that contending remains to be seen but on a macro level it s a remarkable achievement.

Now for them to take these next 5 weeks like their lives depend on it and get it done. We have shown our best is good enough and our worst is abysmal. If we can play 5 over the next 7 weeks and get 5 wins.....

Dare to dream.... but **** its gonna take an almighy effort and is highly unlikely to occur... but thats part of the fun right!

Also... we in the middle of a rebuild in a handicapped league with all the stipulations against us AND we are still annoying the shit out of every other fan base and the AFL by being where we are - and dont forget the media who luv to circle and pick at our weaknesses. They are all pissed we are still here. Melbourne, Eagles, Tiggers and Doggies have all won flags and dropped back to the bottom. North and Freo aint even won one and still cant. Essendon havent won a final since Jesus played for Nazareth and GCS after getting enough Rd 1 handouts from the AFL to sink the Bismark still cant make the Finals let alone win one

We are doing ok in totality ... but **** me Id luv then to get this right and snag another one.

GO CAtters

If you said we'd make the top 4 at the start of the year with none of Cameron, Stewart or Dangerfield likely to make the final All-Australian team and Guthrie to miss the entire season again + Hawkins struggling and eventually getting injured no one would believe you. One more game still to go before we lock in top 4 but it's been a pretty huge collective effort from the entire squad + coaches to have us where we are.

 

[Mr Meow]

The most likely scenario is a QF v Swans in Sydney

As much as the cynic in me anticipates that Sydney will revert to their very best football in this hypothetical QF against Geelong:

-1 point loss to Freo at home
-2 point loss to St Kilda away
-79 point win against NM at home
-2 point loss to Brisbane away
-39 point loss to Bulldogs at home
-112 point loss to Port away
-3 point win against Collingwood at home
-39 point win against Essendon away

Is not a good 2 month form line. They thrashed an easy beat, played a great quarter against Collingwood at home and had a strong second half against a laughing stock. Then a handful of fairly embarrassing losses.

IF we get the worst of Sydney and not the best, we have every chance to cause an upset. If both sides bring their best, we will lose by 6-10 goals. It's in their hands if we meet. We need to ensure we bring our best just in case.

 

[Zuta]

We are far more likely to finish 3rd and play Port in my opinion. I think I'd prefer Sydney as they will be doubting themselves heading into a QF. Also finishing 4th means if we lose we avoid playing most likely the Dogs or Hawks at the MCG.

 

[The_Koulouriotis_Fan]

The positive thing is, that we are no chance to be a flag favourite again unless we win the QF and this year we have been terrible when the media starts rating us!

 

[CHAWKTS]

One thing I think worth noting .. well 2 things actually.

one - we knackered ourselves like no other and dropped the game with so much on the line it was deplorable really.

No excuses there

With that said, there were very, very few that during preseason were willing to suggest to make Top 4 at seasons end.

Many had us off the cliff into the ravine and not making 9-12, let alone the 8 and certainly not Top 4.

Now Top 4 is not fully locked but its more than likely.

And we have been doing it without Tomma for about 6 weeks which we all know is not the Tomma of years past but he would still draw the best defender from the opposition regardless of his output.

Danger has also missed 8 week or so.

All points that can be countered - but all im saying is that once again the Geelong Football CLub have put themselves into a position at seasons end to contend. How far we can take that contending remains to be seen but on a macro level it s a remarkable achievement.

Now for them to take these next 5 weeks like their lives depend on it and get it done. We have shown our best is good enough and our worst is abysmal. If we can play 5 over the next 7 weeks and get 5 wins.....

Dare to dream.... but **** its gonna take an almighy effort and is highly unlikely to occur... but thats part of the fun right!

Also... we in the middle of a rebuild in a handicapped league with all the stipulations against us AND we are still annoying the shit out of every other fan base and the AFL by being where we are - and dont forget the media who luv to circle and pick at our weaknesses. They are all pissed we are still here. Melbourne, Eagles, Tiggers and Doggies have all won flags and dropped back to the bottom. North and Freo aint even won one and still cant. Essendon havent won a final since Jesus played for Nazareth and GCS after getting enough Rd 1 handouts from the AFL to sink the Bismark still cant make the Finals let alone win one

We are doing ok in totality ... but **** me Id luv then to get this right and snag another one.

GO CAtters

Good post. I agree. Logic is clear that there are better teams over the season (although as I posted yesterday our draw was one of the hardest so I am happy to take 4th as a reasonable cue to where we sit over the season. Noting that 3 below us are in better recent form). So we are up against it. But in my view so is every other team in the 8.

Sydney are not in good form and would need to change course to win (they can)
Port can’t be trusted in my view. Maybe I am underestimating them but…they have 3 cat rejects in their best 22!
GWS I think should feel most confident but haven’t been able to get over mcg finals hump

The three in form below us need to win 4 finals in a row to win the whole thing. Including tough first week against in form teams! It hasn’t been done often for good reason. Last year Calton and GWS looked unbeatable going into prelim. And almost won but didn’t. Bulldogs 2016 is a rarity.

So in my mind it is wide open for us despite the fact that we don’t look good enough to consistently beat the good teams. I am being semantic but in my mind it is only 3 games not 5. I am banking west coast game (if we can’t then all moot!). And I don’t think we can play 4 weeks in a row to win the GF so I think week 1 against sydney is more critical for us than the other teams. Win that and everything changes. We will have a break and only need to win 2 games (and with sydney and brisbane on the other side of the draw).

Unlikely for sure. Not impossible.

In any event frankly amazing that is is even a topic we can discuss!!

 

[Gavin Excell]

We are far more likely to finish 3rd and play Port in my opinion. I think I'd prefer Sydney as they will be doubting themselves heading into a QF. Also finishing 4th means if we lose we avoid playing most likely the Dogs or Hawks at the MCG.

What results are needed weekend to finish 3rd?

 

[CHAWKTS]

Just for the sake of it…I wanted to compare the ins and outs from 2022 GF team with our 23 players for 2024 GF IMO

Out:

Selwood (retired)
Smith (retired)
Guthrie (injured)
Hawkins (injured?)
Parf
MOC
Bews

In

Holmes (redemption!)
Dempsey
Mannagh
Humpries
Bruhn
O Henry
Neale

I have question over 2E but replacement not that easy unless we go for Mullin or MOC (doesn’t have to be Irish I suppose!)

Also O Henry and Rohan in same 23 but I have one of them sub. It might be that they want a more versatile sub (2E/Mullin/Moc) and therefore drop 1 of them? For who?

I have assumed Hawkins doesn’t get up. If he does I wonder whether they drop Stanly and think we have it covered with Blitz/SDK/Neale. Otherwise they swap our Neale - but I don’t like that

Not sure how I feel about the ins and outs. I love frankly all of the ins. 1st year player plus 6 under 23!

But the outs are pretty good. Norm, 2 legends and Cargi are 4 big outs!