Prediction How will the Geelong Cats fare in season 2024?

[JohnZ]

What results are needed weekend to finish 3rd?

GWS or PORT drop below us

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

What results are needed weekend to finish 3rd?

GWS lose and we win then it depends on %.

If Doggies beat them by 20ish points then we need to win by 50+.

And for those that want to know, for us to finish 2nd the above has to happen as well as Port lose by about 20ish we would need to win by 70+.

So barrack for Freo and Doggies and hope West Coast don't turn up to play.

 

[standupand]

One thing I think worth noting .. well 2 things actually.

one - we knackered ourselves like no other and dropped the game with so much on the line it was deplorable really.

No excuses there

With that said, there were very, very few that during preseason were willing to suggest to make Top 4 at seasons end.

Many had us off the cliff into the ravine and not making 9-12, let alone the 8 and certainly not Top 4.

Now Top 4 is not fully locked but its more than likely.

And we have been doing it without Tomma for about 6 weeks which we all know is not the Tomma of years past but he would still draw the best defender from the opposition regardless of his output.

Danger has also missed 8 week or so.

All points that can be countered - but all im saying is that once again the Geelong Football CLub have put themselves into a position at seasons end to contend. How far we can take that contending remains to be seen but on a macro level it s a remarkable achievement.

Now for them to take these next 5 weeks like their lives depend on it and get it done. We have shown our best is good enough and our worst is abysmal. If we can play 5 over the next 7 weeks and get 5 wins.....

Dare to dream.... but **** its gonna take an almighy effort and is highly unlikely to occur... but thats part of the fun right!

Also... we in the middle of a rebuild in a handicapped league with all the stipulations against us AND we are still annoying the shit out of every other fan base and the AFL by being where we are - and dont forget the media who luv to circle and pick at our weaknesses. They are all pissed we are still here. Melbourne, Eagles, Tiggers and Doggies have all won flags and dropped back to the bottom. North and Freo aint even won one and still cant. Essendon havent won a final since Jesus played for Nazareth and GCS after getting enough Rd 1 handouts from the AFL to sink the Bismark still cant make the Finals let alone win one

We are doing ok in totality ... but **** me Id luv then to get this right and snag another one.

GO CAtters

Well said.
Doing the maths -- 5 more wins from here would mean we won the flag AND turned up and won another game we weren't scheduled to play in. That would definitely be impressive, and frankly would make up for a few halves of football the team went missing in during the season.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

As much as the cynic in me anticipates that Sydney will revert to their very best football in this hypothetical QF against Geelong:

-1 point loss to Freo at home
-2 point loss to St Kilda away
-79 point win against NM at home
-2 point loss to Brisbane away
-39 point loss to Bulldogs at home
-112 point loss to Port away
-3 point win against Collingwood at home
-39 point win against Essendon away

Is not a good 2 month form line. They thrashed an easy beat, played a great quarter against Collingwood at home and had a strong second half against a laughing stock. Then a handful of fairly embarrassing losses.

IF we get the worst of Sydney and not the best, we have every chance to cause an upset. If both sides bring their best, we will lose by 6-10 goals. It's in their hands if we meet. We need to ensure we bring our best just in case.

It would be so Geelong to do the unthinkable.

Nobody gives them a chance (except RoCo of all people) and they go up there and beat Sydney, are announced flag favourites looking like they'd slayed the dragon....and then lose in the prelim, probably to an interstate side too.

I really do believe we can win it all, but gun to my head, I'm expecting one heroic finals performance where we get off the canvas, and one (or two) dismal ones.

I just don't know which week either of them is going to come. A very similar feeling to the '13-21 era.

Nevertheless, as dazbroncos & STPer18 mentioned, we've already broken the system and can sit back with our feet up laughing at the media, the pundits, and the loser clubs pining for our downfall.

Couldn't pay me to support any other club, we've got as good as can be. All in a weird, rebuild/retool/whatever you want to call it year no less

 

[Mr Meow]

It would be so Geelong to do the unthinkable.

Nobody gives them a chance (except RoCo of all people) and they go up there and beat Sydney, are announced flag favourites looking like they'd slayed the dragon....and then lose in the prelim, probably to an interstate side too.

I really do believe we can win it all, but gun to my head, I'm expecting one heroic finals performance where we get off the canvas, and one (or two) dismal ones.

I just don't know which week either of them is going to come. A very similar feeling to the '13-21 era.

Nevertheless, as dazbroncos & STPer18 mentioned, we've already broken the system and can sit back with our feet up laughing at the media, the pundits, and the loser clubs pining for our downfall.

Couldn't pay me to support any other club, we've got as good as can be. All in a weird, rebuild/retool/whatever you want to call it year no less

Even a poor finals loss or two, giving it their all with a chance of unlikely glory - that's a better way to send off some of our veterans than a couple of Richmond 2024 type years. We easily could've folded, with a bit of bad luck, and had a similarly demoralising season. The old cliff diving move after many years of challenging.

"Flag or bust" is a nice way to cope for perennial losers, but personally I'm glad we've given it a crack. Inconsistency by the team and frustration for us aside, we've kept a pulse on the season now that a half decent injury run has allowed it (unlike our cursed 2023).

 

[allrighty]

Best of the bunch? Why the 'experienced' Cats loom large in flag race

With one week remaining, there's no clear AFL premiership favourite. And while every contender has pros and cons with September around the corner, there's one club that just looms large with significant finals experience, writes Rohan Connolly.

spr.ly

EDIT: Looks like it's already been posted

 

[cats_09]

 

[goyoucatters]

Rohan Connolly is tipping us for the flag - and yes, the article was written post-Saints game :

Best of the bunch? Why the 'experienced' Cats loom large in flag race

With one week remaining, there's no clear AFL premiership favourite. And while every contender has pros and cons with September around the corner, there's one club that just looms large with significant finals experience, writes Rohan Connolly.

www.espn.com.au

I guess it's not totally outlandish when you read it through. But the article does seem to make quite a lot of the weaknesses of other teams while making just about the best of our very patchy season. And 'interesting' that he makes so much of the Essendon win, given they're not even going to make finals this season.

Put it this way, I think we'd need at least a couple of our opponents to be significantly 'off' (and us to be just about fully 'on' at the same time) to win three finals this season. That in itself seems seriously long odds to me.

 

[cats_09]

 

[catempire]

Does anyone have the final permutations for this weekends games? I.e. by how many points Geelong needs to win by, Dogs v Giants and Freo v Port results for various outcomes?

 

[cats_09]

Does anyone have the final permutations for this weekends games? I.e. by how many points Geelong needs to win by, Dogs v Giants and Freo v Port results for various outcomes?

Isn't it around a combined 120 points between our win, and their losses?

 

[Mr Meow]

Isn't it around a combined 120 points between our win, and their losses?

In the AFL ladder predictor:

If we win by about 90 points and Fremantle beat Port by about 20 points our % would be identical (it would obviously depend on exact points for and against). So that looks right. We may need a 110 point win if we assume Fremantle can only beat Port by a small margin (1-10 points).

For GWS we don't need to win by as much to climb ahead of them. A 70 point win, with them losing to the Bulldogs by 10 points, would be enough.

 

[CHAWKTS]

Amazing analysis

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So we passed gws but not port.
2nd 3rd or 4th all live results possible.

 

[catempire]

Most likely 3rd facing Port at AO now I reckon.

 

[foxdog50]

Most likely 3rd facing Port at AO now I reckon.

Me personally, I'd rather play Sydney up Sydney than playing Port Adelaide in Adelaide. The last 2 times we played over there they killed us. Plus the crowd in Adelaide can get wild... And that always helps Port..

Rather have a game at the MCG, than anything

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Most likely 3rd facing Port at AO now I reckon.

Potentially yes although i wouldnt rule out gws beating bulldogs (kingsley has them in good form and they have it all to play for) and freo could possibly beat port enough to sneak us into top 4 if its not a dead rubber.

Tbh i am going to love some of ports average defenders on cameron-i think we can do it.

 

[Hamingja]

Port in Adelaide against Rozee, Butters and JHF would be a blood bath

Then potentially v winner of Dogs and Hawks to avoid straight sets



I think we should be cheering for GWS to beat the Dogs to take 4th.

 

[foxdog50]

Potentially yes although i wouldnt rule out gws beating bulldogs (kingsley has them in good form and they have it all to play for) and freo could possibly beat port enough to sneak us into top 4 if its not a dead rubber.

Tbh i am going to love some of ports average defenders on cameron-i think we can do it.

I can remember we said the same thing, twice playing them about there defence.... and Aliar Aliar was so dominant..
Plus Ports midfield is bloody unreal.. They were running riot down at Geelong earlier this season

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I can remember we said the same thing, twice playing them about there defence.... and Aliar Aliar was so dominant..
Plus Ports midfield is bloody unreal.. They were running riot down at Geelong earlier this season

Their midfield scares me no doubt.

But IF we can break even esava allir and zerk lack football IQ. Cameron can massively exploit this.

 

[foxdog50]

Their midfield scares me no doubt.

But IF we can break even esava allir and zerk lack football IQ. Cameron can massively exploit this.

I hope your rite.... but there midfield is the problem... and on there home ground is alot more louder and ferocious which bloody helps them hugely

 

[cats_09]

Last time we played Port, Rohan kicked 2 goals, while Hawkins, Jezza & Henry each kicked 1 goal

I’m pretty comfortable in suggesting that we didn’t have the right balance that night and we look more dangerous with the more mobile Neale up forward rather than Hawkins was who uncompetitive at times over his last 8/9 matches

Teams had worked out that they could run off Hawkins to double team Jezza or Henry, and when that was happening, Hawkins wasn’t holding marks to make them pay

Neale with his mobility & willingness to compete in the air gives our foward line a different look to how it was earlier in the season

I also think that we had a better balance to it today with Rohan also missing meaning that we went in with 2 x KPFs (Jezza & Neale), then we had Henry as the 3rd marking option & Stanley drifting forward at times - we looked better balanced and more dangerous at times, with the guys each having their own space to work into, while also being able to block for each other when needed

For teams who haven’t yet played our forward line with Neale in it and instead used to Hawkins with how he played, it could take some getting used to

 

[catempire]

Very surprised at the pessimism here. An even run with injuries and we make the 8 in a canter. This team is not that different to the one that won a flag 18 months ago but was cruelled by injuries last year.

Geelong is still sixth favourite for the flag - $21

As offended as we all are, the predictions of us catastrophically missing the 8 from here are improbable with our easy run home.

From here we play 4th, 13th, 3rd, 10th, 18th, 15th, 9th, 14th, 16th. On the most pessimistic of views we win 6 of those.

Happy with these predictions from February and June respectively. Got a lot of pushback to both.

We won 7 after the Carlton loss by the way Vdubs, Jimmy Yamazaki, Jeff76, Warhorse, Baggins15, et al.

 

[Hamingja]

Last time we played Port, Rohan kicked 2 goals, while Hawkins, Jezza & Henry each kicked 1 goal

I’m pretty comfortable in suggesting that we didn’t have the right balance that night and we look more dangerous with the more mobile Neale up forward rather than Hawkins was who uncompetitive at times over his last 8/9 matches

Teams had worked out that they could run off Hawkins to double team Jezza or Henry, and when that was happening, Hawkins wasn’t holding marks to make them pay

Neale with his mobility & willingness to compete in the air gives our foward line a different look to how it was earlier in the season

I also think that we had a better balance to it today with Rohan also missing meaning that we went in with 2 x KPFs (Jezza & Neale), then we had Henry as the 3rd marking option & Stanley drifting forward at times - we looked better balanced and more dangerous at times, with the guys each having their own space to work into, while also being able to block for each other when needed

For teams who haven’t yet played our forward line with Neale in it and instead used to Hawkins with how he played, it could take some getting used to

Getting the ball to the forward line against Port would be the issue.

6-6-6 against Port's mids and our backline not being able to weather a storm much these days just screams of that prelim against the Dees to me.

 

[My Tilly]

Getting the ball to the forward line against Port would be the issue.

6-6-6 against Port's mids and our backline not being able to weather a storm much these days just screams of that prelim against the Dees to me.

We reeled them in last time after they got out to a 7 goal lead.
They're primed but certainly beatable.
I prefer Adelaide oval than the SCG.