How will we go Rounds 14-24 ?

[vinum coupe]

In previous installments it has been 6 or 7 game blocks.
A luxury for Geelong supporters.
The game has changed.


Geelong currently sits 7-5
They MUST win five to make the finals. Probably 6.

Make a call.

Port - @ geelong
Gold Coast @ GC
Collingwood @ MCG
Essendon @ eithad
Adelaide @ Geelong
Hawthorn @ MCG
WC @ Pattersons
Saints @ Etihad
Bulldogs @ Geelong
Swans @ Geelong

 

[BotsMaster]

15w 7L I reckon, with losses being against West Coast and Hawthorn. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[pessimiser]

should beat port, gc, bulldogs, the rest, no confidence, 10-12

 

[AlterRob]

17-5. Undefeated baby.

 

[footscore]

16-6, we will lose by less than a kick to the Eagles in Perth after another tough & bruising encounter with Hawthorn the week before takes the stuffing out of us

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I actually think we will need to win 13 to make it this year given a) the evenness of the comp and b) our poor % and our lack of chances after the next 2 weeks to boost it.

I'm predicting we finish 14-8.

Wins against Port, GC and Dogs are the ones I'm most certain of. I think we will beat Hawthorn in a close one like usual, we will get St Kilda, and I am thinking we will beat Adelaide and Sydney with home ground advantage. The last two are the ones I'm least sure on.

We're no chance at Subi against the Eagles, we could beat the Pies but I reckon we won't, and Essendon will beat us with legspeed that we can't do much about.

I haven't done a ladder predictor or anything but I would expect that gets us to 6th or 7th and what would look like a melb elimination final, maybe against St Kilda.

 

[footscore]

I haven't done a ladder predictor or anything but I would expect that gets us to 6th or 7th and what would look like a melb elimination final, maybe against St Kilda.

gotta give it a whirl...it's a blast

I have gone through it on numerous occasions and the highest we can finish is 3rd and the lowest will be 7th.
Hawthorn are going to struggle to beat Carlton next Friday night, Carlton's rucks, small forwards and equal share of possession through the midfield is going to make this one closer than many will believe.
If Hawthorn win they should almost secure top 4 but if they were to lose then wow!

That 4th spot is literally up for grabs for quite a few teams. Collingwood, West Coast and Sydney also have a tough task of trying to stay atop. Collingwood may have secured themselves top 4 today by beating West Coast as I can see them losing to us (yep, we'll even the ledger at 1-1 a piece), Hawthorn, Sydney at ANZ is 50/50 and West Coast will get them at home in RD23.
They also face Essendon in the last game of the year. If they were to drop 2 of those, they may drop to as low as 6th because of poor percentage.
The teams that look good now won't be looking so good at seasons end and at some point, we are going to see a few outsiders gain peak fitness and cause some upsets along the way. Usually always happens.

It's certainly going to be one of the most exciting and entertaining finishes to an AFL season I can ever remember.

 

[cats2rise]

15-7 I think/hope.

 

[Copernicus]

14-8 for mine, figure that will put us 6th or 7th. Can't see us winning even close to all of those games in a tough run home - I have losses penciled in against Collingwood, WCE, and one of Adelaide, Essendon or Sydney. Having those games at home vs Adelaide and Sydney will help, but I don't think we will win all of those.

 

[catempire]

Pretty surprised by the optimism in this thread.

We can probably all agree on pencilling in Port, GC and Footscray.

But the remainder are all against top 8 teams, only Hawthorn of which we have beaten in 2012. Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast and the Swans deserve to be warm favourites in our next encounter. Essendon, Hawthorn and the Saints are ones we could steal if we are on and they are off.

So I would say best case scenario we could steal 13 wins but I can easily see us missing the 8.

Our gameplan, diabolical midfield setup at stoppages and distinct lack of hunger are real obstacles from where I sit.

 

[Baudolino]

I'm pessimistic about our chances in the broader, premiership-challenge scheme of things, but the ladder and remaining fixtures for the teams around us makes me optimistic that we should at least play finals. 12-10 will definitely be enough to qualify, so wins against Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and two others should be enough. As it stands five teams, ranked 7-11 at the moments (Geelong, St Kilda, Carlton, Richmond, Fremantle) are competing for two spots. Therefore to make finals we only need to finish above three of those teams. Keep in mind we already have an invaluable one game head start. Our percentage is poor, certainly, but fortunately of our four antagonists the two with the softest run-ins - namely Richmond and Fremantle - are also the two we currently lead on percentage.

Put it this way, if you think 12-10 won't be enough, you are assuming two of St Kilda, Carlton, Richmond and Freo will go at least 7-3 from here on in.

Perhaps the worst of it is that we have put ourselves in the regrettable position of having to cheer on Hawthorn and Collingwood over the next two weeks, because if Carlton manages even one win from those two games they're going to be a real wildcard with Marc Murphy to return later this season and so forth.

 

[James1970]

12 wins. Scrape into the finals. Varcoe, first game back, puts us in front in the dying minutes first EF. Bartel does the same in Adelaide, again in Perth, then Hawkins kicks 10 as we smash the Pies in the GF.

 

[cynical]

14-8 is probably par based on the assumption that we improve

I'm thinking ladder positions based on wins will look something like this

17-5 3rd
16-6 4th
15-7 5th
14-8 6-7th
13-9 8-9th
12-10 9th-10th

probably lose to WC and Essendon and lose at least one vs Hawks or Pies

If we serve up the crud we have been in the first half of the year i'd expect us to also drop another 1 or 2 games.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Port - @ geelong W No brainer, should win well
Gold Coast @ GC W As above
Collingwood @ MCG L Go down in yet another close one
Essendon @ eithad W Pace will trouble us, but still have the class to get over a young ESS
Adelaide @ Geelong W Victory at home
Hawthorn @ MCG L Sadly, they are just due.
WC @ Pattersons L Not a snow balls chance in hell over there
Saints @ Etihad W Still a cut above the Saints
Bulldogs @ Geelong W Confident in this one
Swans @ Geelong W Will return the favour at home


So I have 14/8, which should stitch up 6th or possibly 7th with our poor percentage. That would be an excellent result given the transition period we are in.

 

[Uncle Chuck]

Assuming we lift from our shitty form...

Round 14.

Port - @ geelong

Should be an easy win. This will be the final punt that convinces Boak to move to KP

However, like this time last year, I think we will begin our training period.

Geelong by 48.


Round 15.

Gold Coast @ GC

Another crack of the heart for Gaz with this one. Let's hope he actually plays this time.

Still deep into our training period.

Geelong by 43.


Round 16.

Collingwood @ MCG

I think the boys will lift for this one. Training will get less intense, but we are still a fair way into it.

Geelong by 9.


Round 17.

Essendon @ eithad

We will win this one to finally get Bomber back. Still training, but gradually getting less intense.

Geelong by 16.


Round 18.

Adelaide @ Geelong

I think we will drop this. KP has been a bit bad for us this year with the stand ripped down, but I expect it to be close.

Adelaide by 14.


Round 19.

Hawthorn @ MCG

We should officially finish our intense training and come out breathing fire as we make our way to finals.

I expect this to be the 9th win in a row v the Hawks. We all know how the boys are against Hawthorn. I think if we finished with the spoon, we'd still be able to beat the Hawks (with Chapman and Jimmy in our side).

Geelong by 23.


Round 20.

WC @ Pattersons

I expect the boys to be in white hot form. This'll be enough to beat WC at their fortress.

Geelong by 12.


Round 21.

Saints @ Etihad

Now in finals preservation mode, we face the Saints who are still a flag threat. I expect us to drop this one.

St Kilda by two kicks.


Round 22.

Bulldogs @ Geelong

Still preserving ourselves, but it should be enough to beat the Dogs.

Geelong by 27.


Round 23.

Swans @ Geelong

It should be okay to play ourselves into some form before finals, so I think we may go somewhat "softly hard at it". Swans won by 13 last year and by a kick again this season, so the boys might lift for those reasons.

Geelong by 22.

I could go alright, or I could go utterly shit. But these are my predictions and I still think we will find a way to win a flag. We apparently have an "even year curse". But this group has done far far too much for far far so much to fall to some stupid petty "curse".

C'mon boys, you can do it!

 

[Uncle Chuck]

WC @ Pattersons L Not a snow balls chance in hell over there

Last year we lost by a kick and a half without I think Scarlett while we were in a heavy training period.

We should be fine this year.

 

[SkittleCats]

17-5

Watch the world tremble as we storm home and hit the finals with the best form in the comp as the other teams go into preservation mode. We've been asleep so far this season but this team is to competitive to go quietly into the night. No excuses, we have a team that can compete with the best.

 

[Uncle Chuck]

Prepare to be disappointed ole optimists, though the more I think about it, the more likely and appealing the prospect gets.

 

[SuperCats9]

13-9, finishing 7th.

 

[SuperCats9]

Last year we lost by a kick and a half without I think Scarlett while we were in a heavy training period.

We should be fine this year.

The way our first quarters are going, we will be down 60-7 at quarter time.

We are a different team this year as to last year, and the Eagles have improved.

 

[romeoh]

15-7 maybe lose to West Coast and Sainters

 

[Uncle Chuck]

The way our first quarters are going, we will be down 60-7 at quarter time.

We are a different team this year as to last year, and the Eagles have improved.

Loool.

Another Cats supporter assuming we won't improve past round 13. Hahhaah.

We've been through this way too many times to do that. Anyone who says otherwise is an idiot.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

catempire is right, with our tough draw, finals are no certainty and we could miss them from here. We have seven very tough games in the run home and we need to win at least three of them, maybe four, so nothing is certain.

Having more of a look at the data this morning:
-Freo's run home is quite soft after next week, it is fairly possible they get to 12 wins, 13 maybe, although their % is poor.
-I reckon Richmond can get to 12/13.
-Carlton St Kilda playing each other in the last round helps us as they are likely to be fighting with us for 6th/7th/8th. What happens there are whether we beat Sydney in the last round will determine whether we finish 6th 7th 8th or 9th.
-Carlton do have a tough run home so it is hard to see them getting the 13.

All in all 13 should get us in and if we play well we should make the 8 but it's far from certain.

I think we can agree it's fairly certain that Collingwood WC Adel will finish top 3, it's just a question of what order. The Coll WC Round 23 game will probably determine who finishes top. The fourth spot is quite open, could be any of Sydney, Hawthorn, Essendon.

Means that our elim final is likely to be against a Sydney/Hawthorn/Essendon/St Kilda etc, which are all potentially winnable. Assuming Collingwood finish top, which is an IF, it would help us massively if we can somehow scrape into 5th as if the Pies are top and we finish 6th it guarantees us having to go to either Perth or Adel for a semi which are our worst outcomes IMO. If we could scrape 5th then we either get a semi against Collingwood which I think we are a chance in, or whoeever they beat, and I would back us against Hawthorn or Essendon at the G, or Sydney at the SCG, more than going to Adelaide or Perth. But to get 5th we probably need to find 15 wins and a good % and I think that may be hard to do.

I still think 6th or 7th and a melb final in the first week is our most likely outcome.

 

[SJ]

I can see 13 wins.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I can see 13 wins.

Agree. Do you think we can get 14 though, or is that one too many?