How will we go Rounds 14-24 ?

[SJ]

Agree. Do you think we can get 14 though, or is that one too many?

Anything is possible and I can't see six guaranteed individual wins, but giving us a percentage chance in each match and adding them up I can see about six all up.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Anything is possible and I can't see six guaranteed individual wins, but giving us a percentage chance in each match and adding them up I can see about six all up.

Yeah that's the way I see it too, none are certain, even WC and Sydney at home, but if you assume we win some of the 50/50 games like that 6 of our last 10 seems a fairly reasonable guess. 7 is a bit more optimistic.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We'll win 15 and finish 4th, 5th or 6th.

 

[you pick one]

We'll win 15 and finish 4th, 5th or 6th.

I hope you are right moondog,But sadly in think we will probable split them 50/50 and finish on 12 wins and a poor %,the last 2 minutes Friday night will come back to haunt us.
Bloody Sydney.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I hope you are right moondog,But sadly in think we will probable split them 50/50 and finish on 12 wins and a poor %,the last 2 minutes Friday night we come back to haunt us.
Bloody Sydney.

I'm confident in reality.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I think your mob will make it.

I see a few parallels with Essendon of 2004. The last effort of what was a quality team, in that you will get in to the 8 and maybe win a final, though will not cause too much damage.

Our Round 17 clash could be crucial for both our teams.

 

[Stig_90]

I'm surprised by the confidence in here, given the massive amount of pessimism on the rest of the board.

13-9 looks most likely to me, but I have been shocking with tipping us this season.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think your mob will make it.

I see a few parallels with Essendon of 2004. The last effort of what was a quality team, in that you will get in to the 8 and maybe win a final, though will not cause too much damage.

Our Round 17 clash could be crucial for both our teams.

I agree with both of your points.

Looking forward to round 17 even though I am quite nervous about our chances of beating you guys.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We'll win 15 and finish 4th, 5th or 6th.

15 is unlikely to get 4th given our %, we'd have to get it into the high 130's for that to be feasible and I don't see that happening.

That's why I reckon 5th is our best case scenario, more likely we finish 6th-8th.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

15 is unlikely to get 4th given our %, we'd have to get it into the high 130's for that to be feasible and I don't see that happening.

That's why I reckon 5th is our best case scenario, more likely we finish 6th-8th.

You're right regarding percentage but i can see a few upsets along the way where i think 15 may just be enough but realistically 5th or 6th, although funnier things have happened.

I still thing we're capable of winning the last 10 though, even in Perth.

 

[candiehappy]

15 is unlikely to get 4th given our %, we'd have to get it into the high 130's for that to be feasible and I don't see that happening.

That's why I reckon 5th is our best case scenario, more likely we finish 6th-8th.

I agree with PO here. In any event I feel that Friday nights game ruled out top 4, we just need to keep working on the team make up and look at what's going wrong. Next year we have, hopefully, Varcoe, Vardy (I hope) & Menzel. We would look a lot better just with that change.

 

[donbooger]

Port - @ geelong - 100%
Gold Coast @ GC - 100%
Collingwood @ MCG - 40/60 chance
Essendon @ eithad - 60/40 chance
Adelaide @ Geelong - 60/40 chance
Hawthorn @ MCG - 40/60 chance
WC @ Pattersons - 40/60 chance
Saints @ Etihad - 90/10 Will be playing for finals at this stage wont let games like this drop
Bulldogs @ Geelong 95/5
Swans @ Geelong 70/30 Nearly beat them at the SCG, would likely be as a good as a final at this stage to make the 8.

Ill give us three more losses and say we will lose 3 of the 5 close matches. No game is unwinnable for us if we come into form we can fly through the season and beat my guess and I wont lose hope of that until I see one of these teams thrash us from start to finish.

 

[Duskfire]

Pretty surprised by the optimism in this thread.

We can probably all agree on pencilling in Port, GC and Footscray.

But the remainder are all against top 8 teams, only Hawthorn of which we have beaten in 2012. Collingwood, Adelaide, West Coast and the Swans deserve to be warm favourites in our next encounter. Essendon, Hawthorn and the Saints are ones we could steal if we are on and they are off.

So I would say best case scenario we could steal 13 wins but I can easily see us missing the 8.

Our gameplan, diabolical midfield setup at stoppages and distinct lack of hunger are real obstacles from where I sit.

Collingwood and Swans we should have beaten though. Thats why I am reasonably optimistic. I understand I am probably over-optimistic, but thats generally the sort of supporter I am I can see us finishing the season off alot more strongly then the first half however. Whether or not that has any bearing on the Finals themselves remains to be seen.

 

[Poetic Justice]

I posted 'the optimistic outlook' http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-optimistic-outlook.947247/ thread and here was my run home:

v WBD @ Etihad - Win
v GWS @ Simonds - Win
v Carlton @ Etihad - Loss
V Sydney @ SCG - Loss
v Port @ Simonds - Win
v GCS @ Metricon - Win
v Collingwood @ MCG - Win (don't think we'll let them win both)
v Essendon @ Etihad - Loss
v Adelaide @ Simonds - Win (see Collingwood, plus home ground adv)
v Hawthorn @ MCG - Win (starting to find form?)
v WCE @ Subiaco - Loss
v St Kilda @ Etihad - Win
v WBD @ Simonds - Win
v Sydney @ Simonds - Win (won't be dropping it again, or just b4 finals)

So far in 4 games we are 3/4, and I predicted 2/4. So really, not bad actually.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

You're right regarding percentage but i can see a few upsets along the way where i think 15 may just be enough but realistically 5th or 6th, although funnier things have happened.

I still thing we're capable of winning the last 10 though, even in Perth.

Upsets are possible, I just doubt that we can make top 4 regardless unless we get a mountainload of % in the next 2 weeks (i.e. well over 10 %), even then we'd still have to pinch a game that might be unlikely on paper.

Of course we're capable of winning all the games, but that's unlikely to happen. Perth is the toughest of the lot.

 

[vinum coupe]

I've got us at 12-10

From here, I'd have the 11 team at 15-7, the 10 team at 15-7, the 09 team at 14-8, the 08 team at 17-5, the 07 team at 16-6.

This team is missing something. There is something fundamentally wrong to the game style.
I can't put my finger on it, (possibly playing too much like 06 and going backwards) not sure, but it is significant.


Still say, there needs to be a 93 blight style intervention by the players. We are not attacking.
As has been said before, we have destiny in our own hands. We play all the teams above us.
But you've got to be good enough to get the job done.

 

[Poetic Justice]

We're missing the silky passes. There always used to be a player on the run for the next possession. Having new players in the team makes it hard for this chemistry to happen.

Also, maybe we're missing Brenton Sanderson.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We're missing the full field pressure. The press as you may call it has disappeared from our game plan.

Now i think it's due to fitness levels. I've noticed we only seem to do it after we are behind by a margin and need to keep opposition scores to a minimum.

I'm quite confident that this will change fairly soon (as soon as the Pies game) when we've had a few of the underdone players, playing consistantly an unimpeded.

A fair few players have either had injury interrupted pre-seasons or missed games through the year and seem to be struggling with fitness levels.

I can really see us hitting our straps pre-Collingwood and giving the flag a serious tilt.

 

[vinum coupe]

Moondog.
I reckon we press, but we just can't do it until the other team is tired.
And...we're trying to do something else.

Do you know what really cut me the other night? And I haven't felt this way for 6 years.

The ball went back to the middle and we had to clear it to score and win.
And I knew we were never going to clear it.

I was seriously gutted at the thought.

 

[you pick one]

I've got us at 12-10

From here, I'd have the 11 team at 15-7, the 10 team at 15-7, the 09 team at 14-8, the 08 team at 17-5, the 07 team at 16-6.

This team is missing something. There is something fundamentally wrong to the game style.
I can't put my finger on it, (possibly playing too much like 06 and going backwards) not sure, but it is significant.


Still say, there needs to be a 93 blight style intervention by the players. We are not attacking.
As has been said before, we have destiny in our own hands. We play all the teams above us.
But you've got to be good enough to get the job done.

You mean besides Rooke Ablett Otto Ling Moons Milburn Harley Blake and Noblett.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

The difference is we aren't using a sustained press where EVERYBODY on the field is corralling their man continually like last season.

Fitness.

 

[donbooger]

The difference is we aren't using a sustained press where EVERYBODY on the field is corralling their man continually like last season.

Fitness.

Dont think its about fitness, I think Chris is trying to beat the new wave of tactics by teaching a less endurance sapping brand of football. We all know new rules are just around the corner with the aim to knacker all the players and end the frenetic press we have seen grow the last few years. Our gamestyles' superiority just comes to the fore later in games when everyone is tired.

 

[footscore]

(possibly playing too much like 06 and going backwards)

Still say, there needs to be a 93 blight style intervention by the players.

have you completely lost your mind man???

1993 style-intervention

 

[vinum coupe]

You know all about it bobie?

 

[SJ]

One of the biggest factors is we've got about three blokes in the 23-27 age range, where players peak as footballers. There is no way we can compete with teams who have most of their elite players in this range.