Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Bradschi]

Thanks for the kind words.

It's probably the better draft since 2008 due to the Gold Coast and GWS drafts but this in reality is only an above average draft.

I'm expecting both of Wines and O'Rouke go top 4-8 so even with a lower than expected finish no guarantee you snag either. If Carlton manage to get one of these it will be a very good draft day. But who knows. Things change. Plenty of footy to be played.

Wines is a hard inside ball winner but also an excellent ball user and decision maker.

O'Rouke is the more athletic and like Wines also a very good ball user. Not the same level hard ball winner but a guy who can play inside/outside and do it well.

If Carlton's key players come back healthy I wouldn't completely count out a top 8 finish. We'll just have to see what happens.

Yes I understand that, but I am not so optimistic about our chances to make the top 8 to be quite honest, so just for the fun of it, what are O'Rourke and Wines are as players and how will they fit into the blues line up if they happen to be snapped up by us come November?

 

[Enviable Tradition]

I think we will see more mature agers than ever before mate, just my gut feeling, even if they aren't quite 'mature' but those 18.5 - 21 year olds out there in the state leagues.

Ben Saunders, Tom Lee, Hayden Busher, Shane Nelson, Max Duffy, Warick mcGinty, Adam Marcon, Willie Wheeler, Kyle Martin all fit this bill, on top of that, stand out guys like Duscher, Valenti etc. and you can make a competitive team from them alone.

Tom Lee's tape? WOW. Certainly boosting his stocks each game he plays, and genuinely think he could bolt as high as the top 30 come draft day. After all, Harry Taylor was drafted as a 21 year old from the WAFL at what, 17? So similar stories there. A team like the Bulldogs could use him, a player that can come straight in and pay but have enough scope to develop and be a force for 5+ years.

Just checked (as I didnt see the game) Kyle Martin has missed the last two which is very disappointing, hoping he can come back this week and I get my dirty little mittens on a copy of this weeks game of the week (Casey versus Frankston).

I do agree that the KPP's that were so frevelant in the three early mock drafts will dwindle away very quickly as we get more information on these potential league players. Lots of stoppers it seems and a lot of undersized KPF seems what is on offer in terms of KPP's, correct?

How about Raikawasa Knightmare

 

[Knightmare]

How about Raikawasa Knightmare

Liked him last year. Very stiff not to get a position on a rookie list.

Haven't seen him play this year but have heard he has continued to improve so should be in the rookie mix if he finishes the season strong.

Yes I understand that, but I am not so optimistic about our chances to make the top 8 to be quite honest, so just for the fun of it, what are O'Rourke and Wines are as players and how will they fit into the blues line up if they happen to be snapped up by us come November?

Wines would play as more of an inside ball winner. O'Rouke more of an inside receiver. Either could make the best side and go past the Ellard/Curnow types pretty quick.

I do agree that the KPP's that were so frevelant in the three early mock drafts will dwindle away very quickly as we get more information on these potential league players. Lots of stoppers it seems and a lot of undersized KPF seems what is on offer in terms of KPP's, correct?

With the KPPs there's depth, the key defenders run particularly deep. Outside of Daniher and Plowman many of the others probably come into the mix around pick 20 and in the second round so many probably will go mids first. There are some quality taller types - Daniher, Shaw, Stewart then there are a number of 194cm types so there is enough size and it goes deep. Not a horrible draft to go KPP relative to recent years.

 

[saintsrfreak]

Hey mate, couple of questions
How is Khan Haretuku doing in the VFL? Does he still look set to be picked up?
And what do you think it would take to get the second mini draft pick? Think St Kilda's first rounder would be enough assuming they finish around 8th?
And last one, where would you rank Jesse Hogan compared to the KPF's of this year's draft taking in his age as a factor?

 

[IanW]

Why dont you have GWS bidding for Viney ? From what you've said, he'd be a great player for us, and it's likely that with out two 17 year olds we'll be having other first round picks, so if Melbourne use a first-rounder on him, that upgrades our picks.

From what you'd said, I'd love to have him in orange and charcoal, if Melbourne are sufficiently gutless and disloyal to not burn a first on him.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey mate, couple of questions
How is Khan Haretuku doing in the VFL? Does he still look set to be picked up?
And what do you think it would take to get the second mini draft pick? Think St Kilda's first rounder would be enough assuming they finish around 8th?
And last one, where would you rank Jesse Hogan compared to the KPF's of this year's draft taking in his age as a factor?

Haretuku has had a very productive season at VFL level and is one of the better state league key forwards. Not sure he will go in the national draft but would be a solid rookie draft selection and for a club looking for an immediate forward Haretuku would be one I'd recommend St Kilda's look into as an alternative to Koschitzke.

Second mini draft selection could be attained with a selection around pick 8 so maybe a Brisbane might look into it. I don't think St Kilda's first round selection would be enough and if keen would likely need to package that 1st rounder with another 1st rounder or a talented young player of interest to GWS (best 22).

Hogan is certainly behind Daniher but I'd rate him slightly ahead of Jaksch and Shaw who are probably the two more desirable key forwards this year. If selected this year Hogan would go around pick 7/8 to that first club looking for a key forward.

 

[Knightmare]

Why dont you have GWS bidding for Viney ? From what you've said, he'd be a great player for us, and it's likely that with out two 17 year olds we'll be having other first round picks, so if Melbourne use a first-rounder on him, that upgrades our picks.

From what you'd said, I'd love to have him in orange and charcoal, if Melbourne are sufficiently gutless and disloyal to not burn a first on him.

Viney would be a great player on any team. It will come down to whether either of GWS or Gold Coast rate Viney ahead of Whitfield/Toumpas/Grundy/O'Rouke/Wines.
It will become more clear as we come closer to the draft but it feels 50/50 at this stage. No certainty GWS/Gold Coast bid and then no certainty that Melbourne would match the bid.

Would I bid? I'd probably use pick 1 on Whitfield but with pick 2 personally I'd be bidding on Viney - for mine is a slightly better Toby Greene and a potential culture changer. But there are others who like Toumpas more, others who like Grundy more and others who like O'Rouke more. So we'll see how this plays out.

 

[IanW]

Viney would be a great player on any team. It will come down to whether either of GWS or Gold Coast rate Viney ahead of Whitfield/Toumpas/Grundy/O'Rouke/Wines.
It will become more clear as we come closer to the draft but it feels 50/50 at this stage. No certainty GWS/Gold Coast bid and then no certainty that Melbourne would match the bid.

Would I bid? I'd probably use pick 1 on Whitfield but with pick 2 personally I'd be bidding on Viney - for mine is a slightly better Toby Greene and a potential culture changer. But there are others who like Toumpas more, others who like Grundy more and others who like O'Rouke more. So we'll see how this plays out.

Knightmare,

Here's my logic. Melbourne *should* grab Viney - not burning a first on him would be the kind of betrayal that would see him become a 300 game player for GWS.

Therefore, we call their bluff, and if they overbid, we explain to our actual number 1 that it was just business, and we needed to make them overbid to make out other picks worth a bit more.

If they fold, we get a betrayed-feeling Viney.

Its a win-win for us.

 

[Nemisis]

How about Raikawasa Knightmare

Raikawasa has improved out of sight - seen him play 3 times this year - best on ground last game. Should go before the rookie draft imo - really enjoy this site

 

[Membling]

Noted that you have KPP sliding but we really, really need KPP this draft. Would be shocked if we didn't get a KPP unless a sensational slider came our way

 

[Nickos66]

I haven't read through the 21 odd pages to check if you're already answered, but how does Kristian Jaksch differ from the likes of Shaw or Paparone? Not to say these 2 are a similar type of forward, but what kind of player is Jaksch? I've heard bugger all of him?

Cheers.

 

[Damo80]

I haven't read through the 21 odd pages to check if you're already answered, but how does Kristian Jaksch differ from the likes of Shaw or Paparone? Not to say these 2 are a similar type of forward, but what kind of player is Jaksch? I've heard bugger all of him?

Cheers.

Haven't seen him myself, but if it helps, I've read a description that likens him to Michael Hurley but without the same level of aggression in the way he plays.

 

[Knightmare]

I haven't read through the 21 odd pages to check if you're already answered, but how does Kristian Jaksch differ from the likes of Shaw or Paparone? Not to say these 2 are a similar type of forward, but what kind of player is Jaksch? I've heard bugger all of him?

Cheers.

For more insight other than my writeup on page 1 this was my profile of Jaksch for the bigfooty trial phantom draft:

Jaksch is most noted for his contested marking ability and has shown that he can be a real marking threat as a forward or up the ground and has the ability to provide a real target. Jaksch is strong inside the contest, 1v1 and in the air and just reads it better than the next guy and has very good hands. Good at ground level and below the knees. Very willing tackler for a key forward and gives you the 2nd + 3rd efforts which few other key forwards offer. Has the versatility to play both forward and back to a high level and could just as easily develop into a key defender with his ability to read it behind the play but I like him most as a key forward. Jaksch is an above average athlete with good leap and some pace. Great size and will fill out nicely. Jaksch is just a really wonderful all-rounder and reminds me allot of Pavlich with many of the things he can do. I've also really enjoyed watching his improvement and I expect considering the consistency with which he has developed throughout and the rate with which he has improved every year that there is plenty more improvement to come.

One factor that doesn't get spoken about enough is Jaksch's field kicking and I think possibly even more than his strong contested marking this is the real feature of his game and for a key position player I'd class it as rare. Jaksch is one of the few key position players who can use the ball better than most midfielders and can find leading targets up the ground and hit them on the chest with perfect placement. Set shot goalkicking not a problem and finishes well around goal which I'm sure will please Pies fans.



Jaksch probably hasn't received the same press as Shaw and Paparone having spent much of the year playing private school footy in Victoria but personally I feel he compares favourably to Shaw and Paparone.
Paparone seems and plays too small for a key forward and looks more like a wing/forward flanker/3rd tall forward and isn't that same marking presence that Shaw and Jaksch are.
Then Shaw while a strong marking forward can't do as many things well and doesn't have the same versatility as Jaksch.

Jaksch projects as a centre half forward - has good size and great field kicking ability for a tall. He has the ability to develop into a strong marking presence at AFL level and I'd liken him to a Matthew Pavlich without the midfield ability - has a similar skill set, similar versatility (can play forward or back) and can take a strong grab up forward and do some damage.

 

[Nickos66]

Cheers Knightmare.

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Hey KM, love your work. Been following intently. Have a couple of Dogs-related questions.

1. The club has indicated that we'll be looking to recruit classy mids who can also go up forward and kick goals. My assumptions is that we'll be liking Mayes, Wines, Toumpas, Stringer and O'Rourke. What are the chances that each guy will fall to 5-6 or chances we'll reach for one?

2. We picked up Talia last season. Wouldn't be surprised if we looked at another KPD in the second or third round. Clurey sounds like a good one (good height and good kick), could he be available for either of those picks? Any other good KPP that could slip?

 

[Yoda_]

Hey Knightmare, what stops Billy Rolfe being spoken about more highly of?

Went along and watched the Stingrays v Eastern game today (Stingrays ended up winning by about 50 points, but innacurate kicking stopped them from winning by about 80 though).

Couple of guys that haven't been spoken about really caught my eye.

Matt Rennie (190cm, 79kg) really stood out early, played a lot of time as a key forward and used his body really well, obviously the opposition wasnt much chop, but he juct clunked several contested marks today. Was used in the ruck sparingly and did really well there also.

One guy I have not seen spoken about at all is Nick Newman. Playing as an overager, this is his first year at the stingrays with only a handful of games under his belt reallly stood out to me. Took two absoute screamers, one right in front of the grandstand. Really classy type of player who seemed to play mostly outside, but had his moments in the trenches. One to keep an eye out for, for the rest of the year.

Ryan Morrison just reminds me soo much of Harry Taylor. Intercepted 3 - 4 Eastern forays forward clunking a couple of very, very good contested marks. Was very good offensively also, being an option and creating for his team mates. Was moved forward in the second quarter after my boy Jake Calvert was unsighted for the rest of the game after having a player fall across his ankle. When forward he continually presented well and didn't look out of place, looked good on the lead with smart leading patterns and looked comfortable kicking for goal. Kicked 2.3 (I think) including one out on the full. Would have liked to have seen him do the team thing instead of trying to kick miracle goals from 40m out on the boundary, but, thats footy I guess.

Nathan Wright was also very good in defence for the Rays, marshalled the troops really well and just does everything well. Really solid player who, from the one live outing, would be a reach in the first round.

Just on the Ranges guys, what are your thought's on Mitchell O'Donnell? Solid kid who just tries, and tries and tries. Was probably the only Ranger who can hold his head up high, strong in the hips, strong in the clearances, he and Thomas Boyd (who is going to be amazing FWIW) were awesome.

 

[Knightmare]

Raikawasa has improved out of sight - seen him play 3 times this year - best on ground last game. Should go before the rookie draft imo - really enjoy this site

Can you give me some info on improvements he has made this year? Getting more of it and doing more damage out of the back half? Shut down game progressing? Any notes welcome.

Hey KM, love your work. Been following intently. Have a couple of Dogs-related questions.

1. The club has indicated that we'll be looking to recruit classy mids who can also go up forward and kick goals. My assumptions is that we'll be liking Mayes, Wines, Toumpas, Stringer and O'Rourke. What are the chances that each guy will fall to 5-6 or chances we'll reach for one?

2. We picked up Talia last season. Wouldn't be surprised if we looked at another KPD in the second or third round. Clurey sounds like a good one (good height and good kick), could he be available for either of those picks? Any other good KPP that could slip?

Mayes more likely than not will be available. Wines same. Toumpas unlikely but possible. Stringer almost certainly will be available and I expect him to be available late 1st round. O'Rouke could be available but no guarantees.

Clurey is looking like a top 10-20 selection right now so probably not quite in the right range. Would be a good fit. Certainly if he slides would be a great pickup but I wouldn't be betting on it.

 

[saintsrfreak]

Any stand out mature age ruckmen in the state leagues that you could see us picking up?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, what stops Billy Rolfe being spoken about more highly of?

Went along and watched the Stingrays v Eastern game today (Stingrays ended up winning by about 50 points, but innacurate kicking stopped them from winning by about 80 though).

Couple of guys that haven't been spoken about really caught my eye.

Matt Rennie (190cm, 79kg) really stood out early, played a lot of time as a key forward and used his body really well, obviously the opposition wasnt much chop, but he juct clunked several contested marks today. Was used in the ruck sparingly and did really well there also.

One guy I have not seen spoken about at all is Nick Newman. Playing as an overager, this is his first year at the stingrays with only a handful of games under his belt reallly stood out to me. Took two absoute screamers, one right in front of the grandstand. Really classy type of player who seemed to play mostly outside, but had his moments in the trenches. One to keep an eye out for, for the rest of the year.

Ryan Morrison just reminds me soo much of Harry Taylor. Intercepted 3 - 4 Eastern forays forward clunking a couple of very, very good contested marks. Was very good offensively also, being an option and creating for his team mates. Was moved forward in the second quarter after my boy Jake Calvert was unsighted for the rest of the game after having a player fall across his ankle. When forward he continually presented well and didn't look out of place, looked good on the lead with smart leading patterns and looked comfortable kicking for goal. Kicked 2.3 (I think) including one out on the full. Would have liked to have seen him do the team thing instead of trying to kick miracle goals from 40m out on the boundary, but, thats footy I guess.

Nathan Wright was also very good in defence for the Rays, marshalled the troops really well and just does everything well. Really solid player who, from the one live outing, would be a reach in the first round.

Just on the Ranges guys, what are your thought's on Mitchell O'Donnell? Solid kid who just tries, and tries and tries. Was probably the only Ranger who can hold his head up high, strong in the hips, strong in the clearances, he and Thomas Boyd (who is going to be amazing FWIW) were awesome.

Rolfe can play and is in the mix but not an early selection.

Thanks for the review. Can't get to every game so reviews of any game/s welcome.

Eastern Ranges are very ordinary this year so it's not surprising a few from the Stingrays had big games.

Of those Morrison I'm familiar with and as a late/rookie could be of those talls in the mix. Agree that he's got something.

Wright is expected to go high: Considered generally to be a late 1st-mid 2nd rounder. I'm not as high as many on his game but with his athleticism I'd love to see what he could do as a forward. Seems to have some Andrew Walker to his game and with his leap feels wasted down back even with the dash he can provide.

O'Donnell does have a dip. Real honest trier with an impressive tackling game. Not sure where to place him but I'd have him in the mix for a rookie position because there is something there but would be interested to hear some other views on him.

Any stand out mature age ruckmen in the state leagues that you could see us picking up?

Sean Tighe would be one I'd look into. More of an athletic no.2 type ruck with the versatility to play back or forward also. Still young (born 1991) and hitout numbers very impressive in the WAFL. Could see him as a fit for St.K and should be available through the rookie draft.

 

[Yoda_]

Rolfe can play and is in the mix but not an early selection.

Thanks for the review. Can't get to every game so reviews of any game/s welcome.

Eastern Ranges are very ordinary this year so it's not surprising a few from the Stingrays had big games.

Of those Morrison I'm familiar with and as a late/rookie could be of those talls in the mix. Agree that he's got something.

Wright is expected to go high: Considered generally to be a late 1st-mid 2nd rounder. I'm not as high as many on his game but with his athleticism I'd love to see what he could do as a forward. Seems to have some Andrew Walker to his game and with his leap feels wasted down back even with the dash he can provide.

O'Donnell does have a dip. Real honest trier with an impressive tackling game. Not sure where to place him but I'd have him in the mix for a rookie position because there is something there but would be interested to hear some other views on him.



Sean Tighe would be one I'd look into. More of an athletic no.2 type ruck with the versatility to play back or forward also. Still young (born 1991) and hitout numbers very impressive in the WAFL. Could see him as a fit for St.K and should be available through the rookie draft.

And just for the record, I think Pongracic has been dominating because of his size and not by ability. Reminds me a lot of Dane Swan.. He looks like he shouldnt get to every contest, but he does! looks like he shouldnt break away from packs, but he does! he kicks goals like Swan and links up ok.

I dont expect Rolfe to go early, can see him being a 3rd round - rookie pick.
Morrison was good in both attack and defence, so hopefully your measurements are correct and he has in fact grown to 192cm (says 190cm in the record I needed today, presumably a measurement recorded from the pre season).

Was interesting that I spoke to the Newman's mum (Josh & Nick) and she said that both her boys were playing there first years at the Rays, Nick is an overager who apparently (according to Stingrays assistant coach) has come on in leaps and bounds since the start of the year, is definitely one to keep an eye out for. His brother was good also (18 year old Josh, wingmen who links up well, named in the bests for the Rays apparently).

Throughout reading all the mock drafts, the common trend is skinny flankers who do everything well, what sets Wright apart? that's what I didnt see today. Dont get me wrong, he does everything really well, but what is that outstanding attribute? Not sure where the Andrew Walker comes into it, play two different roles.

Im going to be interested to see O'Donnell again, and whether or not it was a one off. I do agree, really love his tackling game, probably had another half dozen today again. Will be interested to see his testing (should he get an invite to combine or screening), but a really tough customer.

@saintsrfreaks

Not too many state ruckmen going around these days buddy, surely Michael Sikora from Sandringham could be well worth a look, wins plenty of hitouts, but not too many possessions around the ground though. I think there are plenty of KPP/second ruckmen in the state leagues. Khan Haretuku has had a ripper year for the undermanned Frankston Dolphins, at 22 he is about to hit his prime and is ready to play. As KM mentioned, Sean Tighe could be another option. Jackson Coleman from Sandringham as well.

As for pure ruckmen, Dean Putt who is playing good footy with Bendigo has shown he can still compete against AFL quality ruckmen, interstate there is a young guy by the name of Wes Lammie who seems to be developing really well, not sure on his impact on games, but from a stats p.o.v well worth a look.

Hope this helps, think there may be quite a few clubs looking for ruckmen, with the draft bare, and the state leagues full of undersized ruckmen (Lammie, Putt) or KPP's filling in as ruckmen (Coleman, Haretuku).

 

[Knightmare]

And just for the record, I think Pongracic has been dominating because of his size and not by ability. Reminds me a lot of Dane Swan.. He looks like he shouldnt get to every contest, but he does! looks like he shouldnt break away from packs, but he does! he kicks goals like Swan and links up ok.

I dont expect Rolfe to go early, can see him being a 3rd round - rookie pick.
Morrison was good in both attack and defence, so hopefully your measurements are correct and he has in fact grown to 192cm (says 190cm in the record I needed today, presumably a measurement recorded from the pre season).

Was interesting that I spoke to the Newman's mum (Josh & Nick) and she said that both her boys were playing there first years at the Rays, Nick is an overager who apparently (according to Stingrays assistant coach) has come on in leaps and bounds since the start of the year, is definitely one to keep an eye out for. His brother was good also (18 year old Josh, wingmen who links up well, named in the bests for the Rays apparently).

Throughout reading all the mock drafts, the common trend is skinny flankers who do everything well, what sets Wright apart? that's what I didnt see today. Dont get me wrong, he does everything really well, but what is that outstanding attribute? Not sure where the Andrew Walker comes into it, play two different roles.

Im going to be interested to see O'Donnell again, and whether or not it was a one off. I do agree, really love his tackling game, probably had another half dozen today again. Will be interested to see his testing (should he get an invite to combine or screening), but a really tough customer.

Big mids can make it and with the way Pongracic has been producing in the second half of the season is looking like a solid 2nd rounder, possible 1st rounder if he continues to build on his current form. Pongracic does allot of things right and just one of those better inside mids.

I have Morrison down as 190cm at this stage - there should be updated heights later in the season so we'll see.

Wright stands out with pace and leaping ability. Can shut down his man but is rated for the drive he can generate through the back half. Handy through the midfield also.
I've seen Wright take some hangers and with his leaping ability, marking ability, pace and strong tackling game and while I've never seen him play as a forward he just seems to have a game better suited to playing in the forward half. Down back I have some questions over ball use + decision making which I think at the next level might really show up - whereas up forward I don't see this as being such a concern. As a defender I generally favour Colquhoun, Carter and Montgomery when talking defenders because their ball use just feels allot cleaner and more damaging but this is my preference and Wright is generally rated by most scouts as being ahead of these three.

It's not the first time O'Donnell has had big games. He's just one of those guys I'm curious to hear a number of other perspectives on before I really settle on his rating.

 

[stefoid]

KM, who are the top 5 best players at carrying the ball out of trouble, as opposed to having to dispose of the ball if pressured?

 

[LeverPuller]

KM (and the general community of draftee people), don't know if you've been watching the Scorps at all but Luke Tynan (brother of 2011 Melbourne draftee Josh) looks a very likely type...anyone got any thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, who are the top 5 best players at carrying the ball out of trouble, as opposed to having to dispose of the ball if pressured?

Jack Viney
Ben Kennedy
Jonothon O'Rouke
Dayle Garlett
Jimmy Toumpas

KM (and the general community of draftee people), don't know if you've been watching the Scorps at all but Luke Tynan (brother of 2011 Melbourne draftee Josh) looks a very likely type...anyone got any thoughts?

Tynan is playing well down back and has continued his development this year which has been encouraging. Tynan has been one of the better players for the Scorpions and has had an excellent year. Could be a rookie chance if he finishes the season strongly and would be among those 10-15 VFL players in the mix this year.

 

[Smiley Boy]

Hey KM

If Hogan was in this years draft not the mini draft where would you rate him out of the KPP? 2nd after Daniher?