Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Balony_pony16]

Update for DT types Knight? top 10 prospects?

 

[Yoda_]

My thoughts on Glass-McCasker are much the same as before though I haven't viewed him since the u18 champs. In a draft deep with key position players he is one of the crowd. And he is in the mix for selection without being a certainty.

His height and size is appealing and he can play a shutdown role but he needs to become more of a rebounder, particularly with so many young key defenders coming through with that ability to not only beat their opponents as Glass-McCasker can do, but they also take intercept marks and provide some rebound.

Draft range is mid draft - undrafted (though unless you're being noted as a first round selection this year the undrafted element is implied with everyone else this year).

For an AFL comparison the first that comes to mind is Joel Tippett.

Is Brind a better prospect than Vic overAger Christian Buxy - Smith?
Sound like similar players

 

[SonOfurX]

But this year again with Jade Gresham and Kieran Lovell two outstanding smalls. It's against the odds Cavarra gets selected this year, but still possible given the standard of his performance.

Lovell and Gresham, do you think both go in the first round? I would take Lovell top 10.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, love reading through and hearing your thoughts on the upcoming talent. My question is do you think Aaron Francis is good enough to be a #2 KP defender/forward or is he more suited to the 3rd tall role at either end?

Interesting question with Aaron Francis. I don't see him as a genuine key position player and with the growing height of key forwards not a key defender.

It's plausible he could become as a forward a variation on Jake Stringer as he has that similar something to him that could see him succeed there.

My preference though is that Francis is used more as a flanker or third tall. In saying that he offers versatility and can play whatever role is required. I'd just recommend it be a role where he is featured because when he gets going and finds the footy he can do his share of damage.

Update for DT types Knight? top 10 prospects?

For DT types you should be looking at (and I'll only talk scoring output as I have no idea what the pricing will be next year):
Mills, Hopper, Keays, C.Oliver (if he gets games), R.Clarke (if he gets games), D.Parish, Mathieson, Partington, Gresham, Lovell. *All most probably will be midfield listed and in the most part midfield only.

As for other positions. Michael Hartley and Mitch Brown as mature talls may get some games. Daniel Capiron as a general defender if selected may be able to get some games. Crocker and Kerbatieh as forwards may receive some opportunities.

They're among the names I'd recommend looking out for as well as any further mature agers selected.

Is Brind a better prospect than Vic overAger Christian Buxy - Smith?
Sound like similar players

Different players. Different positions. Buykx-Smith while a year older is a back. Brind more a forward who with improved endurance has midfield chances. They're both strong boys. But I favour Brind if he sheds the kg.

Lovell and Gresham, do you think both go in the first round? I would take Lovell top 10.

I tend to think both will be on the edge of the first round without either being sure first round selections.

Smalls while generally more productive now also are often know and use their bodies better and also often experience less improvement after the age of 18, whereas the taller guys have to grow into their bodies more and grow out physically and learn their capabilities with the smalls more a case of you have a better idea of what you're getting more often than not.

So as a result, while I anticipate from both top 10 in quality draft first years. I'm not predicting, while it may happen, but I don't predict either will be long term best in 10 quality players from this draft. With others having greater scope to improve based on that understanding of the physical and football growth those less short types experience later on.

 

[Jack Richards]

Hey KM, Any Adam Saad type gems in this draft that play back pocket or HBF?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, Any Adam Saad type gems in this draft that play back pocket or HBF?

I'm leaning towards Daniel Capiron at the moment.

There are seemingly every year at least one general backman from a state league somewhere who makes it.

Will be interesting to see who it will be this year.

 

[eth-dog]

I'm leaning towards Daniel Capiron at the moment.

There are seemingly every year at least one general backman from a state league somewhere who makes it.

Will be interesting to see who it will be this year.

Tipungwuti is a popular option from Essendon fans. I do agree though, Capiron looks likely.

 

[Knightmare]

Tipungwuti is a popular option from Essendon fans. I do agree though, Capiron looks likely.

He is a lively little fella isn't he?

I would have loved for Tippa to have been drafted back in his draft year and love him at VFL level at the moment. Just as a short small backman, it is hard to see who he covers even with his strength.

 

[eth-dog]

He is a lively little fella isn't he?

I would have loved for Tippa to have been drafted back in his draft year and love him at VFL level at the moment. Just as a short small backman, it is hard to see who he covers even with his strength.

Yeah, this has been by far his best season. I did a list analysis post for us earlier this week, and thought (with my expected delistings) we needed:

2x KPD (one mature, one young)
2x KPF (one mature, one young)
1x ruck (young)
1x HB (young-ish)
2x Inside mid (one mature, one young)
2x Outside mid (both young)

With the possibility of Wallis in the rookie draft, and expected gaining of 5 and 25 for Carlisle and Melksham respectively, what would you go for with our picks:

4:
5:
23:
25:
41:
59:
77:
95: McKernan promotion

RD4:
RD22:
RD40:

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah, this has been by far his best season. I did a list analysis post for us earlier this week, and thought (with my expected delistings) we needed:

2x KPD (one mature, one young)
2x KPF (one mature, one young)
1x ruck (young)
1x HB (young-ish)
2x Inside mid (one mature, one young)
2x Outside mid (both young)

With the possibility of Wallis in the rookie draft, and expected gaining of 5 and 25 for Carlisle and Melksham respectively, what would you go for with our picks:

4:
5:
23:
25:
41:
59:
77:
95: McKernan promotion

RD4:
RD22:
RD40:

I always feel forgetting needs and going best available is the way to go through the draft, and if/where possible look to fill list holes through free agency/trade.

If Essendon end up with that collection of selections I would likely be looking at:
4. Aaron Francis
5. Clayton Oliver (a reach or would be considered to be by most, but I like him and for Essendon's list love the fit he offers as a possible Watson successor)
23. Kieran Collins
25. Ryan Clarke
41. Brandon White
59. Mason Redman
77. Michael Hartley

RD4: Daniel Capiron
RD22: Nicholas Coughlan
RD40: *any one of: Tom Phillips/Kade Answerth/David Cuningham/Darcy Cameron

Regarding your list needs it would certainly not get you your key forward. But I'm finding many of the key forwards to be relatively overrated this year - such as Weideman and the McKay boys. So as a result while it's a pressing list need. I'd outside the draft look certainly for a key forward and likely a ruckman also look beyond the draft.
Lycett as a ruck I like. Maybe Casboult as a key forward if he is availableish given those others on the market are well overpriced. Jack Watts is the other while unpopular still a cheap but in my view while not a genuine key forward still an undervalued tall forward that comes to mind.

So that's a rough feel as to what I'd be looking at/hoping for in Essendon's situation if the picks work out that way.

 

[Zach Package]

He is a lively little fella isn't he?

I would have loved for Tippa to have been drafted back in his draft year and love him at VFL level at the moment. Just as a short small backman, it is hard to see who he covers even with his strength.

Still not sure back is where he should be. Think initially it was a move just designed to get him moving and into the game a little more and he's just been good at it.

Long term I still think forward pocket is still where he should be, but obviously the fact that he can play behind the ball or play cannonball in the middle for 5 minutes here or there helps his case.

 

[eth-dog]

I always feel forgetting needs and going best available is the way to go through the draft, and if/where possible look to fill list holes through free agency/trade.

If Essendon end up with that collection of selections I would likely be looking at:
4. Aaron Francis
5. Clayton Oliver (a reach or would be considered to be by most, but I like him and for Essendon's list love the fit he offers as a possible Watson successor)
23. Kieran Collins
25. Ryan Clarke
41. Brandon White
59. Mason Redman
77. Michael Hartley

RD4: Daniel Capiron
RD22: Nicholas Coughlan
RD40: *any one of: Tom Phillips/Kade Answerth/David Cuningham/Darcy Cameron

Regarding your list needs it would certainly not get you your key forward. But I'm finding many of the key forwards to be relatively overrated this year - such as Weideman and the McKay boys. So as a result while it's a pressing list need. I'd outside the draft look certainly for a key forward and likely a ruckman also look beyond the draft.
Lycett as a ruck I like. Maybe Casboult as a key forward if he is availableish given those others on the market are well overpriced. Jack Watts is the other while unpopular still a cheap but in my view while not a genuine key forward still an undervalued tall forward that comes to mind.

So that's a rough feel as to what I'd be looking at/hoping for in Essendon's situation if the picks work out that way.

Thanks Knighter, I went something like:

4: Charlie Curnow
5: Darcy Parish
23: Kieran Lovell
25: Mitchell Hibberd
41: Michael Hartley
59: Mitchell Brown

RD4: Daniel Coghlan
RD22: Andre Parella
RD40: Tom Wallis

While picking a Mason Shaw/Cameron Giles type as DFA.

 

[Knightmare]

Still not sure back is where he should be. Think initially it was a move just designed to get him moving and into the game a little more and he's just been good at it.

Long term I still think forward pocket is still where he should be, but obviously the fact that he can play behind the ball or play cannonball in the middle for 5 minutes here or there helps his case.

I tend to agree forward is the better option if he can prove he can provide heavy scoreboard impact and buzz around and offer plenty of tackling pressure.

Thanks Knighter, I went something like:

4: Charlie Curnow
5: Darcy Parish
23: Kieran Lovell
25: Mitchell Hibberd
41: Michael Hartley
59: Mitchell Brown

RD4: Daniel Coghlan
RD22: Andre Parella
RD40: Tom Wallis

While picking a Mason Shaw/Cameron Giles type as DFA.

One word of caution with Curnow. Since he has returned from injury. He has completely lost his explosion to become exclusively a big bodied marking forward. So pick 4 is risky.

 

[blueiris]

Thanks Knighter, I went something like:

4: Charlie Curnow
5: Darcy Parish
23: Kieran Lovell
25: Mitchell Hibberd
41: Michael Hartley
59: Mitchell Brown

RD4: Daniel Coghlan
RD22: Andre Parella
RD40: Tom Wallis

While picking a Mason Shaw/Cameron Giles type as DFA.

Essendon's pick 23 would have to be going back to Stkilda to even have a chance of getting pick 5 Carlisle on he's own isn't worth a top 10 pick

 

[eth-dog]

I tend to agree forward is the better option if he can prove he can provide heavy scoreboard impact and buzz around and offer plenty of tackling pressure.



One word of caution with Curnow. Since he has returned from injury. He has completely lost his explosion to become exclusively a big bodied marking forward. So pick 4 is risky.

Fair enough, but I really rate the 2-3 games I've seen of him.

Essendon's pick 23 would have to be going back to Stkilda to even have a chance of getting pick 5 Carlisle on he's own isn't worth a top 10 pick

Only if they give something else in return as well. Carlisle and 23 is worth more than 5.

 

[Milanista28]

Knightmare I've seen a few people post they think Weideman is overrated and just read you did as well, From memory Cam McCarthy was spoken about similarly in his draft year, Any chance his development will take a similar path?

 

[Jack Richards]

Essendon's pick 23 would have to be going back to Stkilda to even have a chance of getting pick 5 Carlisle on he's own isn't worth a top 10 pick

Carlisle is easily worth a first round draft pick or player equivalent.

 

[blueiris]

Carlisle is easily worth a first round draft pick or player equivalent.

I'd say late first round early 2nd round not a top 10 pick

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I've seen a few people post they think Weideman is overrated and just read you did as well, From memory Cam McCarthy was spoken about similarly in his draft year, Any chance his development will take a similar path?

It's always possible that Weideman could develop to exceed where he ends up getting selected, he has football bloodlines which can often turn out well - probably more so due to the support and people around them who know the game and know and can help them with what they're going through. And Weideman has missed time this year. So that muddies the evaluation somewhat as he hasn't had the chance on field to show improvement this season. So I'm not discounting anything with him from that perspective.

Cam McCarthy was more a different situation where he had talent and was improving rapidly but was generally just not quite rated top 10 or top 15 by enough people as he was coming from a long way back as an unknown coming into the season.

Just the talk with Weideman certainly of being a potential top 10 pick for me personally based on the games I've seen these past two seasons is just plainly too high and unreasonable. He doesn't have the endurance and lacks that point of difference to suggest he will become a particularly high level key forward.

 

[eth-dog]

I'd say late first round early 2nd round not a top 10 pick

So you're saying he's worth less than Ben ****ing McEvoy? Having a laugh. KPP's like him don't grow on trees.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

So you're saying he's worth less than Ben ******* McEvoy? Having a laugh. KPP's like him don't grow on trees.

How much better than Ryder do you rate him?

 

[eth-dog]

How much better than Ryder do you rate him?

Around the same. And we got unders for Ryder.

 

[blueiris]

So you're saying he's worth less than Ben ******* McEvoy? Having a laugh. KPP's like him don't grow on trees.

It's my opinion hasn't shown enough to be worth a top 10 pick Bulldogs at 11 is probably the closest your probably get to play at CHB

 

[Sydswans0512]

Hi there knightmare
How do you rate Callum Mills against Heeney?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi there knightmare
How do you rate Callum Mills against Heeney?

Mills may be the slightly more advanced and higher level accumulator at the same age.

I just prefer Heeney's talent and feel he has the higher ceiling.