Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[tenderwarrior]

Essendon could pick, Clug, McGrath or bid on Setterfield.
I wouldn't call pick 1 a lock IMO.

I wouldn't call any of them a 100% lock, but the further into the draft you go, the less certain you can be ☺

 

[LynchysMob]

A bit off draftee chat but I just wanted to know if there's any way of watching the draft without Fox?

I have the premium afl app through Telstra.. Is it watchable there?

 

[JasRulz63]

A bit off draftee chat but I just wanted to know if there's any way of watching the draft without Fox?

I have the premium afl app through Telstra.. Is it watchable there?

If you have a subscription, you've been able to watch it through there in previous years. I assume this year will be the same.

 

[LynchysMob]

If you have a subscription, you've been able to watch it through there in previous years. I assume this year will be the same.

Awesome!

 

[Skipper_]

For those wanting their team lists analysed this is my weekly piece looking at each teams needs and talking about some players through the draft who may fill those list needs (longest weekly piece yet):

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17958126/knightmares-afl-list-analysis-does-your-club-need

Great work KM. Interested in your opinion if both Marshall and Battle were available who would you select. Also of those rucks you mentioned as late draft picks or rookie picks who do you think is the most appealing.

 

[remfan101]

Hi Knightmare, just a couple questions regarding GC academy boy Josh Williams. Have barely heard any chat about him but has a fantastic highlights package and as a lightning quick, goal-kicking wingman would on face value be a great list fit for North if GC chose not to match. Do you think he'll be available at around pick 70 and what type of player do you see him developing into? One thing I did notice is that while he is tall he is extremely light (189cm, 69kg). Any other obvious deficiencies in his game? I'm surprised with those physical attributes he isn't rated more highly.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Nankervis is a good addition and can be a good ruckman. He has a shot at taking over. Forgot about him with Richmond not listing him on their website under players yet.

Caddy is a fine but only fine midfielder. Never had a 400 disposal season or 200+ contested possession season. Never had 100 clearances in a season. He can be a component but he isn't making Richmond's midfield much better as could be said of Prestia who is a really good mid.

In terms of talking quality youth. I mention that specifically in Richmond's case because Richmond lack a young core group that can be built around. The players who are built around at the clubs 25 and overs.

The best way to think of it is if you're to build a best 22 for Richmond containing players under the age of 25 only, after Prestia, maybe Ellis there is a very short list of players anyone would want in their best 22s if wanting to contend for a flag.

Richmond's under 25s overall are particularly poor with no worthwhile core group of those existing.

Any success Richmond have at the moment is predicated on the success of the clubs 25 and overs. Martin, Cotchin, Rance, Riewoldt. They're all stars. Houli is very good. Yarran can be when he hits some form etc.

It's a team list where with the better players 25+, I would be expecting a team contending for a flag - as per Hawthorn in recent years. Not a team looking likely to miss the top 8 again.



Not one I know a lot about.

Have seen one or two of his games and he seemed solid enough up forward - able mark.

If he's 191cm height is likely a factor.

Reserves numbers are good.

Not informed enough on his situation as to why he isn't at least a state combine invite, but have to say I'm surprised also.



90% on each of McCluggage, McGrath, Ainsworth.

I may have read wrong but in relation to our youth does that mean you dont rate any of rioli, markov, menadue or Cellis? And i do agree we need more kids. 2 first rounders next year should help

 

[Knightmare]

Great work KM. Interested in your opinion if both Marshall and Battle were available who would you select. Also of those rucks you mentioned as late draft picks or rookie picks who do you think is the most appealing.

Marshall is probably the choice. Has better talent and is more of genuine key forward height v Battle who may be a 3rd tall at the next level.

Sean Darcy and Jordan Sweet are my two personal favourites of the potential late/rookie draft rucks. Both have big bodies, and use that size and seem types where if they lose the weight, they can develop.

Hi Knightmare, just a couple questions regarding GC academy boy Josh Williams. Have barely heard any chat about him but has a fantastic highlights package and as a lightning quick, goal-kicking wingman would on face value be a great list fit for North if GC chose not to match. Do you think he'll be available at around pick 70 and what type of player do you see him developing into? One thing I did notice is that while he is tall he is extremely light (189cm, 69kg). Any other obvious deficiencies in his game? I'm surprised with those physical attributes he isn't rated more highly.

He breaks the lines like few in this draft. That's what he does.

Very light bodied. Very outside and doesn't find much of the ball or win it in contested situations.

He can feature in the national draft and it will be interesting to see where a bid comes. Somewhere around the 3rd round is my estimate, with few genuine outside types in this draft who can break the lines as Williams can.

I may have read wrong but in relation to our youth does that mean you dont rate any of rioli, markov, menadue or Cellis? And i do agree we need more kids. 2 first rounders next year should help

They're all potentially developable players that you mention and they're each making strides in the right direction. None of them are established or certainties, still being early days in their developments respectively.

In that age group (25 and unders) there are no established stars yet or a foundation of young players who project (once Rance/Cotchin/Martin/Riewoldt/Houli/Yarran etc) all retire to be able to take over the show and compete with many teams which as a neutral looking in really troubles me with Richmond.

 

[SumTingWong]

KM, How do you compare Brennan Cox with Tyler Keitel? I liked Keitel in his draft year and thought he was very unlucky not to get drafted.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, How do you compare Brennan Cox with Tyler Keitel? I liked Keitel in his draft year and thought he was very unlucky not to get drafted.

Keitel more of an intercepter down back.

Cox is the more athletic.

Cox the better player at the same age and will be drafted before Keitel this year (if Keitel is even drafted) but I do like Keitel of this years mature age key defenders and feel as a rookie he is worth a look.

 

[Ben Drever]

Knightmare is Kieren agius a chance this year?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare is Kieren agius a chance this year?

Not in the mix that I'm aware this year.

Not invited to the state or national combine.

Spent most of the year playing in the reserves and was only ok at that level rather than outstanding.

 

[JD Tomahawk]

If McCluggage or McGrath are available at 3 will Brisbane still take Ainsworth?
If 1&2 goes to Mc and Mc could the Lions take Sam P-S? He does support the lions and has stated he wants to go to Brisbane. He also moved away from home years ago. the go home factor is minimal. I don't think there is much difference between the potential of the 2

 

[Impatient Saint]

KM how is it you are the only ITK who mentions Ronke. From your description he sounds exactly what the Saints need/want. Why is he being overlooked by others?

If he is anywhere as near as good as mentioned, I hope Trout and Bains are all over him also!

 

[reincarnated]

It doesn't matter if they traded for pick 2 or not. If there was a draft penalty it has include both P2 and P15. You can't just let them have P2 and take away useless P37.

I won't be surprised though if AFL did allow them to keep 2.

 

[coniglio_number1]

If McCluggage or McGrath are available at 3 will Brisbane still take Ainsworth?
If 1&2 goes to Mc and Mc could the Lions take Sam P-S? He does support the lions and has stated he wants to go to Brisbane. He also moved away from home years ago. the go home factor is minimal. I don't think there is much difference between the potential of the 2

Ainsworth is rated in the top 5 and actually wants to play there. That is worth more than 1-2 years of potentially better play from the MCs'.

 

[briztoon]

If McCluggage or McGrath are available at 3 will Brisbane still take Ainsworth?
If 1&2 goes to Mc and Mc could the Lions take Sam P-S? He does support the lions and has stated he wants to go to Brisbane. He also moved away from home years ago. the go home factor is minimal. I don't think there is much difference between the potential of the 2

If either McCluggage or McGrath are there at 3, it likely means that Essendon drafted McGrath at 1, and GWS drafted Ainsworth at 2, leaving McCluggage, and Brisbane will take McCluggage with out a seconds hesitation.

Ainsworth said he wants to go to Brisbane. SPS said he wants to play at a big club in Melbourne.

 

[Knightmare]

If McCluggage or McGrath are available at 3 will Brisbane still take Ainsworth?
If 1&2 goes to Mc and Mc could the Lions take Sam P-S? He does support the lions and has stated he wants to go to Brisbane. He also moved away from home years ago. the go home factor is minimal. I don't think there is much difference between the potential of the 2

Neither McCluggage or Mcgrath will slide to 3.

In the odd scenario they did, it would probably be because Ainsworth goes 1/2.

Unclearly if one of McCluggage or McGrath are there at 3 whether Brisbane would take them.

Don't think Brisbane will take SPS. He doesn't appear in the mix anymore.

KM how is it you are the only ITK who mentions Ronke. From your description he sounds exactly what the Saints need/want. Why is he being overlooked by others?

If he is anywhere as near as good as mentioned, I hope Trout and Bains are all over him also!

Only invited to the state combine. Being a top ager and not really mentioned much during the year, that has seen him go to the state rather than national combine.

Whether he gets picked or not is unclear, but I'm a big wrap for him. High % contested ball winner and one of the most explosive players in this draft. His game in my view can translate. He is one of this years semi-hidden gems, hiding in plain sight but little spoken about.

It doesn't matter if they traded for pick 2 or not. If there was a draft penalty it has include both P2 and P15. You can't just let them have P2 and take away useless P37.

I won't be surprised though if AFL did allow them to keep 2.

GWS is the AFL's team as Sydney once were, or so the saying goes.

GWS want McGrath so I can't see the AFL imposing that heavy of a penalty on them.

 

[M Malice]

Unclearly if one of McCluggage or McGrath are there at 3 whether Brisbane would take them.

IMO, 100% certain if McGrath or McCluggage is there at 3 we take him. who do you see as being the alternative to them at 3 KM? Taranto?

 

[Knightmare]

IMO, 100% certain if McGrath or McCluggage is there at 3 we take him. who do you see as being the alternative to them at 3 KM? Taranto?

I'm not seeing Brisbane passing on McGrath or McCluggage if there. Taranto is another name who could be considered though he seems more a pick 4-14 type, as with SPS.

 

[M Malice]

I'm not seeing Brisbane passing on McGrath or McCluggage if there. Taranto is another name who could be considered though he seems more a pick 4-14 type, as with SPS.

thanks KM, i misunderstood your original post.

 

[murphy2bedabest]

KM what chances do you give Marshall and battle being there at pick 18 and 26 for the dogs? would picking both of them be a good move for the dogs?

would mean that our spine or KPP by 2019 could be after 3 off seasons be.

FB Collins (2015 draft)
CHB Adams * (2015 draft)
3rd tall Cordy (2014 FS)

FF Boyd (2014 trade)
CHF Marshall (2016 draft)
3rd Tall Battle (2016 draft)

* subject to go home factor

 

[Knightmare]

KM what chances do you give Marshall and battle being there at pick 18 and 26 for the dogs? would picking both of them be a good move for the dogs?

would mean that our spine or KPP by 2019 could be after 3 off seasons be.

FB Collins (2015 draft)
CHB Adams * (2015 draft)
3rd tall Cordy (2014 FS)

FF Boyd (2014 trade)
CHF Marshall (2016 draft)
3rd Tall Battle (2016 draft)

* subject to go home factor

Marshall may be there at 18, Battle may be there at 26. The latter is more likely, but both are possibilities the Dogs can prepare for.

Dogs don't need both. Boyd, Cloke, Redpath, Stringer and Crameri is a lot of size in the front half.

It's not a draft you'd want to be picking too many key forwards with the quality limited. You're better off waiting until next year with much better key forward options.

 

[murphy2bedabest]

Marshall may be there at 18, Battle may be there at 26. The latter is more likely, but both are possibilities the Dogs can prepare for.

Dogs don't need both. Boyd, Cloke, Redpath, Stringer and Crameri is a lot of size in the front half.

It's not a draft you'd want to be picking too many key forwards with the quality limited. You're better off waiting until next year with much better key forward options.

cheers for that, great work as alway. love reading all your stuff.


while i do agree that we already have many options up forward for 2017/18 and as you pointed out next year looks better for key Forward.

but how long does Cloke have? 2-3 years at best, Crameri is pushing 30 and Redpath well can he make it?

my personal view is if we got one or even 2 key forward this draft, it would allow us to develop them with Footscray while still having cloke and crameri at the club. By 2019/20 when cloke retires Boyd will be 23/24 and have 70-90 games under his belt, while the 2 young forward would with any luck played about 50 odd games at VFL level.

that said im happy with who ever our team decides to pick, as i believe we will pick 2 very good prospects to go with our last few drafts.

 

[Fyfe2Shenton]

Is there a reason why Battle was dropped out of your top 30 rather suddenly?

Also, do you think Marshall has the potential to play a position other than key forward?