Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[briztoon]

Bit of a case of both right I think. We don't have to use Ports pick however we have to match with one pick only. It means if we want to use our second pick on Ballendon if he isn't picked before our first rounder and not use the Port pick, we will be liable for the deficit in 2018. That's what we will weigh up deciding whether we use it or not. (I think)

Where did you get the information that we have to match a bid with one pick only?

My understanding is that clubs can only take as many picks to the draft as they have empty list spots. So no more banking of multiple lower picks.

Say for arguments sake Brisbane de-list four players at the end of the season and take four picks to the draft. Brisbane finish sixteenth, so pick 3. Port Adelaide finish fifth, so pick 14. Brisbane's second round pick, pick 21, and Collingwood (who we traded third round picks with) finish ninth, so pick 45.

I'd sooner use the points from picks 21 and 45 to pay for half/most of the points, and carry a smaller deficit in 2018. Or I'd look to get creative and try and trade our 2018 first round pick on draft night for a player already selected in the first round by another team. Our 2018 first round pick won't be as valuable to us if it's devalued by 300 to 500 points, while to another club, it's still tied to our finishing position on the ladder.

 

[briztoon]

Nothing set at this stage. Movement sure to happen up the top end.

It's a great draft for key forwards and ruckmen. Not much for other positions.

Fremantle are in luck with this draft suiting the clubs positional needs.

There probably will be some clubs with first round picks shopping those picks for players. Fremantle I expect to be one of those buyers with a list regeneration in order.

You don't rate the smalls/mids in this years draft on the same level as the previous couple of drafts?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare great to have your thread back...reading your espn page... no mention of Toby Wooller... where do you see him going? Now at 194cm so legit KPF size...

Wooller is listed at 193cm, but may be a cm taller. The TAC Cup record listings are far from perfect. He feels more like a 3rd tall at this stage as more that leadup and mark forward rather than a contested marking force. Wooller reminds me a lot of Ben Crocker from a few years ago, though taller. I see him at AFL level as a medium forward who may roll through the midfield for minor minutes.

I'd have Wooller going around mid-draft if I was to produce a phantom draft today.

 

[Knightmare]

You don't rate the smalls/mids in this years draft on the same level as the previous couple of drafts?

There are several good low 170cm types and some powerful ball winners, some outside mids.

Overall it's not a super strong or deep draft for general defenders and to lesser extends mids (both inside and outside) and general forwards. There are still some, but not the same depth or as many overwhelmingly top class options for now.

Key forwards and rucks very deep and strong. Key defenders there are some good options.

It's still early days though. As others push up over the course of the year those dynamics may change.

 

[bmaurizio]

Hi KM, really enjoy reading your insights into the youngsters , it's much appreciated. Assuming we finish bottom 3
How do you reckon the Baggers will go, be swayed by Fogarty my favourite player in this draft or fill a need with say a Hayes or Brander ? .
We are desperate and lacking big bodied mobile power forwards to help Harry McKay, yet Fogarty is so very good.
What are your thoughts , can he become an elite midfielder? Whom are the other midfielders that you would rate above him in this draft pool?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, really enjoy reading your insights into the youngsters , it's much appreciated. Assuming we finish bottom 3
How do you reckon the Baggers will go, be swayed by Fogarty my favourite player in this draft or fill a need with say a Hayes or Brander ? .
We are desperate and lacking big bodied mobile power forwards to help Harry McKay, yet Fogarty is so very good.
What are your thoughts , can he become an elite midfielder? Whom are the other midfielders that you would rate above him in this draft pool?

Who Carlton pick probably depends on what trade can be completed with GWS this year

While I say that in part in jest, I can't ignore the Carlton's trade relationship with GWS and with GWS possessing such a long list of players who will continue ongoing to want out for greater opportunity, I fully expect Carlton to continue to aggressively pursue potentially groups of players from GWS.

Back onto who Carlton would probably pick. Needs both for key forward and midfield.

I love Weitering as a key defender, so my instinct would be key forward if it's the right player. Jarrod Brander if he dominates this year would be top of that list at this stage. I also wouldn't discount Sam Hayes who would be an ideal relieving ruckman who plays high minutes as a forward. He's outstanding in both roles and gives you the flexibility to use him however you need to.

If they fall into the second round and still have pretty good seasons, Callum Coleman-Jones or Noah Batla are others to consider.

As for Fogarty. He absolutely has the scope to become an elite midfielder. His contested ball + clearance numbers were outstanding last year when used through the midfield. And at already at least 190cm and with the ability he has playing forward. He'll be in hot demand at seasons end in the way Petracca was a few years ago, though Fogarty may be even better.

 

[GoGrows]

Hi KM, im surprised to see Higgins so low in your rankings, particularly given many others have him quite high.

What are you worried about with him? He seems to put up some massive numbers.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM, im surprised to see Higgins so low in your rankings, particularly given many others have him quite high.

What are you worried about with him? He seems to put up some massive numbers.

Massive numbers. Does plenty right. Crumbs well and hits the scoreboard. Wins it inside and finds it outside.

I'll mention it in my weekly wrap tomorrow or Thursday when it's posted, but Higgins is more an accumulator than someone who provides impact per possession. In each of his first x2 games he has had 30 disposals. They've probably felt more like 10 or 15 disposal games respectively if you weren't tracking him.

Up forward when the ball hits the deck. That's when for me Higgins can have an impact and hit the scoreboard. So my preferred usage of Higgins would be as a forward at AFL level who pushes through the midfield, rather than the other way around.

On recent play he is reminding me, while marginally taller and slightly better forward of centre, of something like a Lewis Taylor. Someone along those lines I'd be more comfortable selecting closer to 20 than 10 if I'm projecting career impact.

 

[Turbocat]

Wooller is listed at 193cm, but may be a cm taller. The TAC Cup record listings are far from perfect. He feels more like a 3rd tall at this stage as more that leadup and mark forward rather than a contested marking force. Wooller reminds me a lot of Ben Crocker from a few years ago, though taller. I see him at AFL level as a medium forward who may roll through the midfield for minor minutes.

I'd have Wooller going around mid-draft if I was to produce a phantom draft today.

Thanks for that KM. 193 ehh , so how would he compare to Battle for instance , he was a mid round (39) last year. The 194 was from http://footyprophet.com/class-of-2017-forwards/ ... but as you say who knows really. The interesting part to me is if the draft is as deep as it seems in KP talent then someone may end up going mid round where in another year they may be a lot earlier. For another example , we took Ratugolea at 43 last year for instance.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Good read mate.

Excited to see where Cassidy Parish lands. Would love to have both in the one team!

 

[briztoon]

Massive numbers. Does plenty right. Crumbs well and hits the scoreboard. Wins it inside and finds it outside.

I'll mention it in my weekly wrap tomorrow or Thursday when it's posted, but Higgins is more an accumulator than someone who provides impact per possession. In each of his first x2 games he has had 30 disposals. They've probably felt more like 10 or 15 disposal games respectively if you weren't tracking him.

Up forward when the ball hits the deck. That's when for me Higgins can have an impact and hit the scoreboard. So my preferred usage of Higgins would be as a forward at AFL level who pushes through the midfield, rather than the other way around.

On recent play he is reminding me, while marginally taller and slightly better forward of centre, of something like a Lewis Taylor. Someone along those lines I'd be more comfortable selecting closer to 20 than 10 if I'm projecting career impact.

Does he offer more defensive forward pressure than Taylor?

 

[foj1]

I think you are overrating Balta a tad.
He is struggling to get a kick and doesn't seem to have a natural AFL position atm but wholeheartedly agree that he is a superior athlete.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for that KM. 193 ehh , so how would he compare to Battle for instance , he was a mid round (39) last year. The 194 was from http://footyprophet.com/class-of-2017-forwards/ ... but as you say who knows really. The interesting part to me is if the draft is as deep as it seems in KP talent then someone may end up going mid round where in another year they may be a lot earlier. For another example , we took Ratugolea at 43 last year for instance.

Battle is much more of a natural key forward with the leading game but also the 1v1 strength and marking.

Wooller is more a leading forward who plays higher up the field. He doesn't possess the same power/acceleration or strength.

Good read mate.

Excited to see where Cassidy Parish lands. Would love to have both in the one team!

Cassidy would be a fit for Essendon. Role wise, he would be a Jobe Watson replacement. He is probably there in the second round. He appears very acquirable for an Essendon.

Does he offer more defensive forward pressure than Taylor?

Marginally better but not a strength of his game.

I think you are overrating Balta a tad.
He is struggling to get a kick and doesn't seem to have a natural AFL position atm but wholeheartedly agree that he is a superior athlete.

It's a speculative call and I will revise monthly obviously. I've got him there based on 2016 play.

Balta can play up the field. Provide run wing/half back if he wants to.

But key forward is his go for me. Maybe he is more Jesse White than Lance Franklin. It's a wait and see story with Balta as with all key forwards this early on.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Knightmare how do you rate naish? What's his current draft range

 

[jjami15]

Are you aware of when the u/18 academy boys are playing against the VFL teams? Was at the start of April last year.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare how do you rate naish? What's his current draft range

Very draftable. Worth taking as a father son.

For me Naish is a mid-draft type but pushing up towards the second round. Perhaps he continues his rise.

Terrific on the outside. Loving the run he is providing. Has enough tricks and impact to think he has something.

 

[bmaurizio]

Thanks KM, I agree with you one would expect Silvagni and Brodie to target GWS , that's understandable with young excellence such as Kelly, Hooper, Kennedy, Smith and probaly a few more to shed he's forgiven for going back to the honey pot.
My dream player thought is Fogarty , last year it was SPS and we got him .
I hope we can land Darcy will be great addition to Cripps.
Go Baggers

 

[Knightmare]

Are you aware of when the u/18 academy boys are playing against the VFL teams? Was at the start of April last year.

Have not heard anything. Not sure it's happening this year.

It's possible with a week off from TAC Cup the weekend of 15/16 and a week off in the U18 Academy Series that they've got something then, though I don't myself have any list of games being played for that weekend. Anyone with info of that weekends game I'd be interested to hear about, and I'm sure many others on here also would.

Thanks KM, I agree with you one would expect Silvagni and Brodie to target GWS , that's understandable with young excellence such as Kelly, Hooper, Kennedy, Smith and probaly a few more to shed he's forgiven for going back to the honey pot.
My dream player thought is Fogarty , last year it was SPS and we got him .
I hope we can land Darcy will be great addition to Cripps.
Go Baggers

I'd happily start a midfield with Setterfield, Hopper and M.Kennedy. Midfielders coming out of their ears. All three can be All-Australians time and time again throughout their careers when they get the midfield minutes. They're possibly as a trio top five quality if I was to do a combined 2015/2016 draft power rankings today.

Fogarty could be a compliment. They're both inside ball winners, though Fogarty would get more forward minutes and be more useful in either position as needed.

 

[briztoon]

Thanks KM, I agree with you one would expect Silvagni and Brodie to target GWS , that's understandable with young excellence such as Kelly, Hooper, Kennedy, Smith and probaly a few more to shed he's forgiven for going back to the honey pot.
My dream player thought is Fogarty , last year it was SPS and we got him .
I hope we can land Darcy will be great addition to Cripps.
Go Baggers

If Darcy Fogarty lives up to the expectations/hype, he'll probably be the dream player of every team in the bottom 3-5.

 

[ringo1]

Have not heard anything. Not sure it's happening this year.

It's possible with a week off from TAC Cup the weekend of 15/16 and a week off in the U18 Academy Series that they've got something then, though I don't myself have any list of games being played for that weekend. Anyone with info of that weekends game I'd be interested to hear about, and I'm sure many others on here also would.



I'd happily start a midfield with Setterfield, Hopper and M.Kennedy. Midfielders coming out of their ears. All three can be All-Australians time and time again throughout their careers when they get the midfield minutes. They're possibly as a trio top five quality if I was to do a combined 2015/2016 draft power rankings today.

Fogarty could be a compliment. They're both inside ball winners, though Fogarty would get more forward minutes and be more useful in either position as needed.

There is an Academy camp this weekend so none of those players will be playing Tac !

 

[Newatthis]

There are several good low 170cm types and some powerful ball winners, some outside mids.

Overall it's not a super strong or deep draft for general defenders and to lesser extends mids (both inside and outside) and general forwards. There are still some, but not the same depth or as many overwhelmingly top class options for now.

Key forwards and rucks very deep and strong. Key defenders there are some good options.

It's still early days though. As others push up over the course of the year those dynamics may change.

What are your thoughts on Pat Brookes from Cannons. He normally plays mid/forward for his club side but cannons are playing him in defence. Amazing speed and leap (even though the recent testing doesn't show that), kicked close to 50 goals last year. See posts in Poulters posts for information and a photo showing his ability to leap.

 

[bmaurizio]

If Darcy Fogarty lives up to the expectations/hype, he'll probably be the dream player of every team in the bottom 3-5.

Agree completely , at our stage of development it's pretty clear the Baggers will finish bottom 3, so it's understandable the Darcy wish. Whatever the outcome , just hope no more spoons.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Very draftable. Worth taking as a father son.

For me Naish is a mid-draft type but pushing up towards the second round. Perhaps he continues his rise.

Terrific on the outside. Loving the run he is providing. Has enough tricks and impact to think he has something.

Probably ideal considering we don't have a second round pick and should get him with our 3rd

 

[briztoon]

Agree completely , at our stage of development it's pretty clear the Baggers will finish bottom 3, so it's understandable the Darcy wish. Whatever the outcome , just hope no more spoons.

If Fogarty lives up to the hype, it will probably take pick 1 to nab him.

 

[Knightmare]

What are your thoughts on Pat Brookes from Cannons. He normally plays mid/forward for his club side but cannons are playing him in defence. Amazing speed and leap (even though the recent testing doesn't show that), kicked close to 50 goals last year. See posts in Poulters posts for information and a photo showing his ability to leap.

I'm yet to see Calder play this year so won't comment at this stage.