Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[HellasOle]

Geelong don't even have a first round pick this year. So no they won't be getting Worpel.

Ballenden is our academy prospect and Noble had said mids are our focus. He is a bit overrated by some in our board who watch him regularly so he won't be going beforenour first pick, therefore a mid first. We have Ports first rounder which again will be a mid if not needed to be used on Ballenden.

Geelong will have to get a first rounder because of the pick rules. They have one early second rounder, assuming Carlton finish 16-18 and their own second rounder. Reckon they might snare a top 10 pick if they trade their second rounders or second plus third rounder

 

[briztoon]

Reckon u guys might go for a tall forward than a mid
But it's too early to tell

Why? We have exciting second year tall forwards Josh Schache and Eric Hipwood. Michael Close is just coming in to his own up forward this year, and we have young academy KPF product Jonathan Freeman in the reserves. Along with Josh Walker and Daniel McStay who can play forward or back.

As jjami15 mentioned we have our own draft pick and Port Adelaide first round draft pick this year. Our head of recruiting has already mentioned young mids will be the focus of our next couple of drafts. We might use Ports pick to match a bid on 2017 academy product Connor Ballenden.

 

[HellasOle]

Why? We have exciting second year tall forwards Josh Schache and Eric Hipwood. Michael Close is just coming in to his own up forward this year, and we have young academy KPF product Jonathan Freeman in the reserves. Along with Josh Walker and Daniel McStay who can play forward or back.

As jjami15 mentioned we have our own draft pick and Port Adelaide first round draft pick this year. Our head of recruiting has already mentioned young mids will be the focus of our next couple of drafts. We might use Ports pick to match a bid on 2017 academy product Connor Ballenden.

Ah ok
Yeah it sounds like he will go and you are a Brisbane supporter with a fantastic inside knowledge of your team
You would know more than I do in that aspect
Anyway he is a huge prospect he will be the SPP of next year mark my words

 

[briztoon]

Geelong will have to get a first rounder because of the pick rules. They have one early second rounder, assuming Carlton finish 16-18 and their own second rounder. Reckon they might snare a top 10 pick if they trade their second rounders or second plus third rounder

You'll have to trade out a player, or player plus pick, for a mid first round pick. Can't see a team trading a first round pick in this years draft for two seconds or even two seconds and third, unless it's GWS trading out their late first round pick for multiple slightly lower picks.

Long season to go, but I rate Worpel as a top 12 prospect (top 8 if I'm being serious).

 

[HellasOle]

You'll have to trade out a player, or player plus pick, for a mid first round pick. Can't see a team trading a first round pick in this years draft for two seconds or even two seconds and third, unless it's GWS trading out their late first round pick for multiple slightly lower picks.

Long season to go, but I rate Worpel as a top 12 prospect (top 8 if I'm being serious).

Yeah
Reckon there a slight chance one of Stanley, Smith or Blicavs will go
Can't play three rucks

 

[briztoon]

Ah ok
Yeah it sounds like he will go and you are a Brisbane supporter with a fantastic inside knowledge of your team
You would know more than I do in that aspect
Anyway he is a huge prospect he will be the SPP of next year mark my words

I reckon he'll be better that SPP. I've been following Worpel since last year, and have been talking Worpel up on the Brisbane board since the day after last years draft.

 

[HellasOle]

I reckon he'll be better that SPP. I've been following Worpel since last year, and have been talking Worpel up on the Brisbane board since the day after last years draft.

Looks a beauty
Why are there so many tall forwards rated in the top 10
Many are hit or miss in my opinion - Geelongs had so many failures, Kersten, Walker, Vardy, etc

 

[briztoon]

Looks a beauty
Why are there so many tall forwards rated in the top 10
Many are hit or miss in my opinion - Geelongs had so many failures, Kersten, Walker, Vardy, etc

Depends on who's draft board you read, but there's not that many genuine KPF's rated in this years first round. As for why they are rated there, it's based on their performances as under agers in the U18 Championships and TAC Cup, and how they performed at the end of season under age showcase last years.

Jarrod Brander from the Bendigo Pioneers is the stand out KPF. Connor Ballenden is rated by a few draft analysts as a top 5, top 10 talent, but a few of the regular Brisbane academy watchers don't rate him that high.

There are a couple of ruck/forwards rated in the first round as well, Sam Hayes from the Eastern Ranges and Callum Coleman-Jones from Sturt SA.

But the best KPF might be in next years 2018 draft, watch out for Max King from the Sandringham Dragons. And his twin brother might be the best KPD, Ben King.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

What are your thoughts on Alex Martini, going to watch him tonight he has been good enough to get a gig in the Glenelg SANFL team, I will be interested to see sharenberg and walker aswell both picked, playing against Ports reserves so will be playing against AFL players

Martini is a good, productive inside mid. He's one of the SA mids in the mix for selection.

Scharenberg and Walker were two of the more unlucky last year. Neither should be ruled out with improvement.

 

[Knightmare]

Why? We have exciting second year tall forwards Josh Schache and Eric Hipwood. Michael Close is just coming in to his own up forward this year, and we have young academy KPF product Jonathan Freeman in the reserves. Along with Josh Walker and Daniel McStay who can play forward or back.

As jjami15 mentioned we have our own draft pick and Port Adelaide first round draft pick this year. Our head of recruiting has already mentioned young mids will be the focus of our next couple of drafts. We might use Ports pick to match a bid on 2017 academy product Connor Ballenden.

Ballenden is a must through the Academy.

It's a draft so stacked with good talls that I'd hope Brisbane take someone if assessed as best available.

Overall I look at Brisbane's long term tall core as including: Hipwood (I favour him back), Andrews and Schache with Ballenden as a relieving ruck another if he continues improving who could be considered part of that core group. After those three/four I'd have things somewhat up in the air with Brisbane's other kpps who I view as only ok and either against the odds to make it/low level performers by position. Ideally I'd be looking to add a star/high level key forward and ruckman to that group. Though with Brisbane early in their list build with that tall core so young still, there is that flexibility as to when Brisbane add those talls.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

4 questions for you Knighta (2 for one.)

1. Who should Essendon target (player and position) and has Andrew McGrath exceeded your expectations so far?
2. How's Callum Mills tracked so far for you?
3. Was Mills very stiff with the deliberate rushed behind paid against him?
4. Who are some prospects who regularly have free kicks paid against them?

Thank you.

 

[Savage Kent]

Knightmare should the saints end up with 2 top 10 picks and take them both to the draft, who do you see them picking in the draft. I like the look of Lochie O'Brien. Where do you see him going in the draft?

 

[philthy05]

Geelong will have to get a first rounder because of the pick rules. They have one early second rounder, assuming Carlton finish 16-18 and their own second rounder. Reckon they might snare a top 10 pick if they trade their second rounders or second plus third rounder

No chance anyone trades you a top ten pick for those picks.

Also , if Geelong need to have a first or be penalised then prepare to be bent over when you try to trade for one. If teams know you have to execute a trade or face penalties they will make you pay through the nose for it. Not many teams are going to want to help Geelong , nor be willing to part with a first rounder.

Geelong best bet is that a team with multiple firsts have a late late first rounder and agree to a pick 17 and pick 50ish for pick 23 and pick 28 and pick 40 type deal and even obtaining picks like that is going to take a huge amount of work from Geelong and moving of some assets. As it stands worpel isn't even remotely on the table for the cats.

 

[Knightmare]

4 questions for you Knighta (2 for one.)

1. Who should Essendon target (player and position) and has Andrew McGrath exceeded your expectations so far?
2. How's Callum Mills tracked so far for you?
3. Was Mills very stiff with the deliberate rushed behind paid against him?
4. Who are some prospects who regularly have free kicks paid against them?

Thank you.

1. McGrath has gone about as expected so far. Less productive than expected in preseason but around what I've expected over the first two rounds. As for a player and position this year for Essendon. As for this years draft. It's the year to get key forwards. Someone through this draft should be selected with a view towards supporting Daniher long term. I'd also target a good ruckman, with several good ruckmen in this draft. To give you a name. I like the fit of Sam Hayes in the first round if available, as a capable ruckman and key forward. Callum Coleman-Jones if available in the second round would be another I'd be tracking closely in Essendon's situation.
2. Slightly better than expected in season one from Mills. Though he was always going to have a season one impact. This year I expect him to replicate rather than improve on his 2016 performance (assuming he stays back). In time when he absorbs midfield minutes, that's when I expect the next spike in performance from him.
3. I let the umpires do the umpiring. Interpretations change all the time. My attitude has always been even if every call goes against you, if you don't win, you're not good enough. Be so good that you'll win regardless of how any umpiring decision goes. The general concept of rushed behinds though, I'd be interested overall in a greater crackdown on it to force defenders to attempt not to concede more. For me that creates more excitement rather than the relief of pressure which happens with a rushed behind.
4. I can't say I take a particularly strong interest in frees against. For some early season stats on this regarding some of this seasons more advanced prospects. Sam Hayes had 4 frees against v 0 frees for in the first round (round two, one free against and none for). Cassidy Parish in round two had 5 frees against and only 1 free for. Also in round two, Jayden Stephenson gave away 2 frees (with none for) and Charlie Thompson gave away 3 frees (with none for).

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare should the saints end up with 2 top 10 picks and take them both to the draft, who do you see them picking in the draft. I like the look of Lochie O'Brien. Where do you see him going in the draft?

Saints are in a good position now. No need to invest so heavily into this draft. Particularly with a strong core of key forwards. I'd be looking to improve my ladder position by adding established players, rather than looking to get younger through the draft.

This is a draft to trade out of unless you're needing a key forward or perhaps to a lesser extent a ruckman.

For arguments sake, Lochie O'Brien and maybe Hunter Clark would be the two better list fits inside the top 10 for the Saints as the better outside types in this draft.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

1. McGrath has gone about as expected so far. Less productive than expected in preseason but around what I've expected over the first two rounds. As for a player and position this year for Essendon. As for this years draft. It's the year to get key forwards. Someone through this draft should be selected with a view towards supporting Daniher long term. I'd also target a good ruckman, with several good ruckmen in this draft. To give you a name. I like the fit of Sam Hayes in the first round if available, as a capable ruckman and key forward. Callum Coleman-Jones if available in the second round would be another I'd be tracking closely in Essendon's situation.
2. Slightly better than expected in season one from Mills. Though he was always going to have a season one impact. This year I expect him to replicate rather than improve on his 2016 performance (assuming he stays back). In time when he absorbs midfield minutes, that's when I expect the next spike in performance from him.
3. I let the umpires do the umpiring. Interpretations change all the time. My attitude has always been even if every call goes against you, if you don't win, you're not good enough. Be so good that you'll win regardless of how any umpiring decision goes. The general concept of rushed behinds though, I'd be interested overall in a greater crackdown on it to force defenders to attempt not to concede more. For me that creates more excitement rather than the relief of pressure which happens with a rushed behind.
4. I can't say I take a particularly strong interest in frees against. For some early season stats on this regarding some of this seasons more advanced prospects. Sam Hayes had 4 frees against v 0 frees for in the first round (round two, one free against and none for). Cassidy Parish in round two had 5 frees against and only 1 free for. Also in round two, Jayden Stephenson gave away 2 frees (with none for) and Charlie Thompson gave away 3 frees (with none for).

Sam Hayes is one of many I'd be interested in wanting Dodo to draft.
As a backman now I've rarely seen Mills right in the scrum of it all but agree that there's something there going for him.
Forever my view on the rushed behind is a polar opposite to what yours is.
If the quartet can harness that ledger I'd want them more.

Thank you for the comprehensive reply Knighta.

P.s. who's your TAC Cup team?

 

[Knightmare]

Sam Hayes is one of many I'd be interested in wanting Dodo to draft.
As a backman now I've rarely seen Mills right in the scrum of it all but agree that there's something there going for him.
Forever my view on the rushed behind is a polar opposite to what yours is.
If the quartet can harness that ledger I'd want them more.

Thank you for the comprehensive reply Knighta.

P.s. who's your TAC Cup team?

I don't have a favourite TAC Cup team. Having always analysed the competition for talent. Come finals time, I'm always hoping the team with the better top end talent makes it through to the next round to see how they perform under the pressure of finals footy.

 

[briztoon]

Ballenden is a must through the Academy.

It's a draft so stacked with good talls that I'd hope Brisbane take someone if assessed as best available.

Overall I look at Brisbane's long term tall core as including: Hipwood (I favour him back), Andrews and Schache with Ballenden as a relieving ruck another if he continues improving who could be considered part of that core group. After those three/four I'd have things somewhat up in the air with Brisbane's other kpps who I view as only ok and either against the odds to make it/low level performers by position. Ideally I'd be looking to add a star/high level key forward and ruckman to that group. Though with Brisbane early in their list build with that tall core so young still, there is that flexibility as to when Brisbane add those talls.

Keep an eye on Archie Smith in our reserves as a developing ruckman. The talk from the reserves watchers is that he is developing faster than expected and exceeding expectations.

 

[HellasOle]

No chance anyone trades you a top ten pick for those picks.

Also , if Geelong need to have a first or be penalised then prepare to be bent over when you try to trade for one. If teams know you have to execute a trade or face penalties they will make you pay through the nose for it. Not many teams are going to want to help Geelong , nor be willing to part with a first rounder.

Geelong best bet is that a team with multiple firsts have a late late first rounder and agree to a pick 17 and pick 50ish for pick 23 and pick 28 and pick 40 type deal and even obtaining picks like that is going to take a huge amount of work from Geelong and moving of some assets. As it stands worpel isn't even remotely on the table for the cats.

There will be teams dont worry
Whats the penalty anyway shouldnt be too bad

 

[Knightmare]

Keep an eye on Archie Smith in our reserves as a developing ruckman. The talk from the reserves watchers is that he is developing faster than expected and exceeding expectations.

He is the more possible of those other talls given his athleticism. Also like that he is very high % contested.

Given that I agree he has a chance. He could be something like Tom Nicholls equivalent which is still pretty handy.

 

[Glen Buterol]

Righto knightmare, who do Saints look at with their two first rounders which currently stand at pick 1 (Hawks trade) & pick 9? We desperately need midfield class & good users of the footy.

 

[Knightmare]

Righto knightmare, who do Saints look at with their two first rounders which currently stand at pick 1 (Hawks trade) & pick 9? We desperately need midfield class & good users of the footy.

If the draft was tomorrow I'd imagine the Saints would be hoping for Darcy Fogarty and Lochie O'Brien.

A Luke Davies-Uniacke or Cameron Rayner could be backup plans with pick 9 if O'Brien isn't there.

 

[Turbocat]

No chance anyone trades you a top ten pick for those picks.

Also , if Geelong need to have a first or be penalised then prepare to be bent over when you try to trade for one. If teams know you have to execute a trade or face penalties they will make you pay through the nose for it. Not many teams are going to want to help Geelong , nor be willing to part with a first rounder.

Geelong best bet is that a team with multiple firsts have a late late first rounder and agree to a pick 17 and pick 50ish for pick 23 and pick 28 and pick 40 type deal and even obtaining picks like that is going to take a huge amount of work from Geelong and moving of some assets. As it stands worpel isn't even remotely on the table for the cats.

For this reason , I do not see Geelong trading in a R1. Its not up to any other team to help Geelong its there issue that they are in this situation.

I did read the AFL has mentioned something about acquiring another pick , I'd have though Geelong has till 2018 to find an extra R1 pick as its 2 in 4 years , and FuTrades were introduced in 2015 . To me They will either gain one thru FA etc , FSon bids or just take the penalty which will probably be no more trading R1 till we have met the criteria.

 

[briztoon]

Hey Knightmare, I know it's a long season, with the champs and everything to come, but Cameron Raynor is looking a class above early on. Do you rate him up there? and can he play extended minutes through the middle?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, I know it's a long season, with the champs and everything to come, but Cameron Raynor is looking a class above early on. Do you rate him up there? and can he play extended minutes through the middle?

As per my power rankings (see the link - page one, post one) Rayner is inside my top 10. Today's game probably has him pushing inside my top five.

He wins a high percentage of the ball in the contest, so if he improves his tank and can run out games through the midfield, he will become an out and out gun. With the bonus of being an player impact when used up forward. It's a winning formula early draft.

He's very developable. He's right up there in the conversation of this years best players if he keeps dominating and improving.