Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[remfan101]

I reckon the Fogarty link is all talk to try and get Carlton to move in on him early, and let Dow or the like slip to North’s pick 4. I don’t think it’ll be successful but I have a great source who suggests the Blues will take Cerra anyway and Dow may well get to pick 4 anyway.

Fogarty is literally the least needed player for North Melbourne of all top ten fancies. They’d be better off recruiting Higgins or Naughton at 4 because they better fill the needs.


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Yeah I hope so. I reckon Dow will be available at 4 and we'll take him either way, pretty strong sources suggest he's our #1.

 

[Mickeys120]

Knightmare, has there been any interest in taking Geordie Nagle in the National or Rookie Draft? Does he look like a player who will make it in the AFL or will he be a state league player.

 

[foodles05]

Not sure I've seen a full game of Narrier's but have heard he's quick. And as an overager playing the 17 games or so at league level, he's probably worth consideration late/rookie.

Domic has skills and is quick but plays a fairly uncontested brand of footy. Needs to become more of a contested ball winner. He could also add some versatility and learn to play more positions.



Bailey?

Just through the monitor. Watched his televised U18 champs games.

Yeah sorry mate I should have been more instructive. I have watched a fair bit of him this year. Thing I really liked about him was in a couple of big games he sensed the moment to take the team with him and got them over the line. I think that is an awesome trait to have. On the negative side he often tries to do too much and sometimes gets caught but probably very coachable. His ability to hit a stationary stoppage at elite pace and take the ball cleanly really is special. Loves a goal as well. On his kicking I can't quite work it out. His action seems fine and often the ball spins well but just over or under kicks or sometime just totally duffs it. I guess may take in the end is because the technique seems sound, he should with a lot of practice iron out most of the kinks and hopefully become a gun. Has the right amount of head wobble that the best need as well I reckon. As well as proper mongrel which is another quality I love. He is seriously hard at the contest.

 

[RJC91]

Yeah I hope so. I reckon Dow will be available at 4 and we'll take him either way, pretty strong sources suggest he's our #1.

We just need to draft the best talent available. Forget what we need, we aren’t challenging for finals in the next two years. I could see someone like Fogarty fitting in good with Ben Brown. In all that being said, I would be happy with any of Rayner, LDU, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson or Fogarty.

 

[Knightmare]

God I hope not. Reckon it has to be one of LDU/Rayner/Cerra/Dow given our midfield. The last thing we need is an inconsistent, injury-prone half-forward with uncertain midfield capacity, when our only proven quality mids are Cunnington and Higgins.

The theory goes - he's a more explosive alternative to Cerra and he could be used either as a big bodied, explosive midfielder with good skills (all needs for North), or a key forward.

Some are rating Fogarty top of their draft boards, ahead of Dow/LDU/Rayner/Cerra etc, so it doesn't come as a massive surprise he would be considered at pick 4.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, has there been any interest in taking Geordie Nagle in the National or Rookie Draft? Does he look like a player who will make it in the AFL or will he be a state league player.

Against the odds to be picked, but a plausible draft choice. Haven't heard him connected to a particular club, but has done ok for Sandringham this year down back with his run, intercepting and rebound reasonable.

Yeah sorry mate I should have been more instructive. I have watched a fair bit of him this year. Thing I really liked about him was in a couple of big games he sensed the moment to take the team with him and got them over the line. I think that is an awesome trait to have. On the negative side he often tries to do too much and sometimes gets caught but probably very coachable. His ability to hit a stationary stoppage at elite pace and take the ball cleanly really is special. Loves a goal as well. On his kicking I can't quite work it out. His action seems fine and often the ball spins well but just over or under kicks or sometime just totally duffs it. I guess may take in the end is because the technique seems sound, he should with a lot of practice iron out most of the kinks and hopefully become a gun. Has the right amount of head wobble that the best need as well I reckon. As well as proper mongrel which is another quality I love. He is seriously hard at the contest.

Would love to see vision of him if there is any around.

From what I recall, he wasn't picked to play any u18 champs in 2016, so it's just word of mouth/reading up that I'm aware of him.

 

[Magpies27]

Knightmare do you think it's more important to go need or best available for Collingwood at 6

 

[jesterwester]

Knightmare do you think it's more important to go need or best available for Collingwood at 6

Not knightmare who obviously has a better understanding of where Collingwood is at- but something that I have always believed with a pick that high in the first round - go best available. Ideally you will be able to address the needs later. (and hopefully previously with the trade/fa period).

Only would address needs if it came to a tie between two players who are rated the same on the board.

 

[smashbox gill]

What are your thoughts on L O'Brien? Started the year as a top 10 pick but had a interrupted year with injuries.

I quite like him for Carltons pick 10

 

[adammania9]

Not knightmare who obviously has a better understanding of where Collingwood is at- but something that I have always believed with a pick that high in the first round - go best available. Ideally you will be able to address the needs later. (and hopefully previously with the trade/fa period).

Only would address needs if it came to a tie between two players who are rated the same on the board.

I’m always a needs guy, personally. Best available sounds sweet but that’s basically what has put us in a never-ending finish of 11th-13th with one good KPP under 25.


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[Knightmare]

Knightmare do you think it's more important to go need or best available for Collingwood at 6

If one of Rayner/LDU/Cerra/Dow slide through to 6, I would hope Collingwood take them.

Failing that, you're probably going to get someone who fills one need or another at 6. Ideally it's the highest rated player on the clubs board, as at the end of the day, you want the pick to produce the best possible player.

Different clubs have different theories. I've always been a best available drafter, with the view that trades/free agency and if necessary late/rookie picks can fill list needs.

The club though will make up their own mind and do what they believe is best, whether it's best available or a needs focused pick.

What are your thoughts on L O'Brien? Started the year as a top 10 pick but had a interrupted year with injuries.

I quite like him for Carltons pick 10

O'Brien probably goes somewhere around pick 20, so he's unlikely to land at Carlton.

He's probably the best ball user in the draft, or if not, then close to, and he's also got pace to burn. He could be better as a contested ball winner. If he had that side to his game more advanced, he'd be in the top 10 conversation.

 

[GoGrows]

Hey KM, at their peaks which mids do you reckon have the greatest DT potential?

 

[Bicks]

KM, the times I've seen Ethan Penrith play live I've always been taken by his speed, defensive/tackle pressure and the run and carry when he gets in space.....where do you see him going in this draft. I see he's tied to Carlton through their Next Gen Academy so what's the go there? I'd love him at the Crows as he looks to have the tools to be very developable.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, at their peaks which mids do you reckon have the greatest DT potential?

Four names you need to know for the long term future of fantasy football (Supercoach and Dreamteam) from this draft.

Cameron Rayner, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra and Paddy Dow (in no particular order). They're the four at this stage projecting to have the scope to be your 105+ (DT), 110+ (SC) scorers.

KM, the times I've seen Ethan Penrith play live I've always been taken by his speed, defensive/tackle pressure and the run and carry when he gets in space.....where do you see him going in this draft. I see he's tied to Carlton through their Next Gen Academy so what's the go there? I'd love him at the Crows as he looks to have the tools to be very developable.

He's a possible late/rookie but not a certainty. His pace and his tackling are his assets. Where he falls short is his skills - they're too unreliable. He has some role player potential. He was played back a lot this year, but my thought process with Penrith is that his best chance is to make it as a forward pressure specialist up front. He may be able to play a role not unlike a Butler/Castagna for Richmond this year, if your view is that level of play is adequate.

 

[Bicks]

Four names you need to know for the long term future of fantasy football (Supercoach and Dreamteam) from this draft.

Cameron Rayner, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra and Paddy Dow (in no particular order). They're the four at this stage projecting to have the scope to be your 105+ (DT), 110+ (SC) scorers.



He's a possible late/rookie but not a certainty. His pace and his tackling are his assets. Where he falls short is his skills - they're too unreliable. He has some role player potential. He was played back a lot this year, but my thought process with Penrith is that his best chance is to make it as a forward pressure specialist up front. He may be able to play a role not unlike a Butler/Castagna for Richmond this year, if your view is that level of play is adequate.

I agree with the forward pressure specialist, losing Charlie Cameron is really what has peaked my interest in Ethan, I see quite a few similar traits to Cameron pre us drafting him. That would be the role I'd see him playing for us. Edit : Cameron's skills have never been overly great especially by foot, but that perceived pressure opposition players feel around him comes in very handy often forcing turnovers.

 

[jesterwester]

I’m always a needs guy, personally. Best available sounds sweet but that’s basically what has put us in a never-ending finish of 11th-13th with one good KPP under 25.


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Fair enough- part of what I love about drafting is that it isn't an exact science- there are different opinions floating around every year. (I'm sure that this is being discussed at every club, regardless of position)

It probably depends on the strength of that need in the draft. I can understand reaching slightly (ie - a guy rated in the 10-20 range at pick 6). However those guys in that range almost always have more question marks on them, as such, greater risk that they develop into top liners. It's a bigger gamble.

Collingwoods pick will be very interesting, that's for sure! It realistically changes the lookout of the top 15 if you go a KPP. IMO, I don't think the strength of the KPP's is good enough to miss out on whoever slides out of the top 5.

 

[WileyWiggins]

Four names you need to know for the long term future of fantasy football (Supercoach and Dreamteam) from this draft.

Cameron Rayner, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra and Paddy Dow (in no particular order). They're the four at this stage projecting to have the scope to be your 105+ (DT), 110+ (SC) scorers.

Surely Jack Higgins slots in there too?

 

[Knightmare]

I agree with the forward pressure specialist, losing Charlie Cameron is really what has peaked my interest in Ethan, I see quite a few similar traits to Cameron pre us drafting him. That would be the role I'd see him playing for us. Edit : Cameron's skills have never been overly great especially by foot, but that perceived pressure opposition players feel around him comes in very handy often forcing turnovers.

Adelaide do need that Charlie Cameron replacement. Penrith is probably there as a rookie, so he'd be one to consider. He won't be as dangerous around goal and won't do as many things to the same standard. But as a role player who is there to pressure like crazy and really go after guys with his tackles, it's something he can do if you're not too worried anything much else.

Surely Jack Higgins slots in there too?

As a small mid he's more advanced than others at his age. So for immediacy of impact, he will be up there.

My hope is he settles more as a small forward than mid. I feel that's where he plays his best footy. I also don't project his upside to be as high as those others. So I'm not going to make that bet today.

 

[Gingerbread man]

Quick question, was Hugh dixon invited to the combine?

 

[Knightmare]

Quick question, was Hugh dixon invited to the combine?

Yes. Only Tasmanian to receive an invite to the national combine.

 

[Sonsofthescray]

Hi KM

Many experts are changing their opinion post season on the eligible players are where they are all rated. Is it a case of over analysis ? Given the players are not playing anymore I find it a little funny. I understand the clubs would be doing extra interviews now so this may sway them depending on character and background checks but the experts are not privy to this ..

Last year Brett Anderson and Callum Twomey rated the best in their phantom drafts so do you think this is because they have more contacts inside clubs and sources? I dont think this worries you as you have always backed players the mainstream don’t rate as high.

The concensus seems to be that the top players will be Rayner, LDU, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson, D Fogarty, Naughton, so as a Doggies supporter who do you rate the next best midfielder backman and forward (excluding these players above), thanks in advance and loving your articles on ESPN

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Highly unlikely.

The belief is if Darcy Fogarty gets through to Carlton at 10, they'll take him.

wouldn't be surprised if they take Clark ahead of him if they get Raynor

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM

Many experts are changing their opinion post season on the eligible players are where they are all rated. Is it a case of over analysis ? Given the players are not playing anymore I find it a little funny. I understand the clubs would be doing extra interviews now so this may sway them depending on character and background checks but the experts are not privy to this ..

Last year Brett Anderson and Callum Twomey rated the best in their phantom drafts so do you think this is because they have more contacts inside clubs and sources? I dont think this worries you as you have always backed players the mainstream don’t rate as high.

The concensus seems to be that the top players will be Rayner, LDU, Dow, Cerra, Stephenson, D Fogarty, Naughton, so as a Doggies supporter who do you rate the next best midfielder backman and forward (excluding these players above), thanks in advance and loving your articles on ESPN

With phantom drafts the orders change based on rumours - with players starting to get connected to various clubs. Those rumours tend in most cases to become known post trade-week, so you'll see a lot of movement on a lot of draft boards.

Power Rankings shouldn't change much if at all - mostly will come down to if others such as myself nerd out re-watching games - u18 champs, TAC Cup games on youtube and the like. But phantom drafts surely will.

Brett Anderson and Callum Twomey do have more club connections than I do due to the nature of their roles. My focuses have always been in gaining the strongest knowledge of the draft history, trends and the draft crop of the year by attending games, watching games online and also engaging the most with my readers - sharing opinions, answering their questions and giving the most detailed knowledge about as many prospects as possible for the year. I've learnt some time ago from reading about Jerry Krause (Chicago Bulls GM from their championship era) that you should go to games your scouting and sit on your own, away from other club scouts. That way you can make your own judgements and not get sucked into players they like, who they probably overrate, or alternatively you can find a diamond in the rough others don't rate/value as much as they should. The downside to this of course is you don't make as many connections in clubland and have less exposure to the rumour mill, but that sits fine with me, I would prefer to differentiate myself.
That said, I still hear my share of draft rumours post-trade week, so my phantom draft shouldn't be all that much further off the mark than the next media phantom draft.

 

[foodles05]

Against the odds to be picked, but a plausible draft choice. Haven't heard him connected to a particular club, but has done ok for Sandringham this year down back with his run, intercepting and rebound reasonable.



Would love to see vision of him if there is any around.

From what I recall, he wasn't picked to play any u18 champs in 2016, so it's just word of mouth/reading up that I'm aware of him.

Not sure about vision mate. The best bet for mine would be highlights on Youtube of the Henley v PAC state knockout final this year or the Intercol game between St Peters and PAC this year but not sure if there is anything on youtube anyway. I know both games were filmed but not sure by who. If you can be bothered it's probably worth calling PAC and asking the school.

 

[foodles05]

With phantom drafts the orders change based on rumours - with players starting to get connected to various clubs. Those rumours tend in most cases to become known post trade-week, so you'll see a lot of movement on a lot of draft boards.

Power Rankings shouldn't change much if at all - mostly will come down to if others such as myself nerd out re-watching games - u18 champs, TAC Cup games on youtube and the like. But phantom drafts surely will.

Brett Anderson and Callum Twomey do have more club connections than I do due to the nature of their roles. My focuses have always been in gaining the strongest knowledge of the draft history, trends and the draft crop of the year by attending games, watching games online and also engaging the most with my readers - sharing opinions, answering their questions and giving the most detailed knowledge about as many prospects as possible for the year. I've learnt some time ago from reading about Jerry Krause (Chicago Bulls GM from their championship era) that you should go to games your scouting and sit on your own, away from other club scouts. That way you can make your own judgements and not get sucked into players they like, who they probably overrate, or alternatively you can find a diamond in the rough others don't rate/value as much as they should. The downside to this of course is you don't make as many connections in clubland and have less exposure to the rumour mill, but that sits fine with me, I would prefer to differentiate myself.
That said, I still hear my share of draft rumours post-trade week, so my phantom draft shouldn't be all that much further off the mark than the next media phantom draft.

It is so funny you say that and I could not agree more. There is a lot and I mean a lot of group think amongst recruiters in the AFL. I simply can't believe how much they hang out together and feed each others opinions. I have in the past literally got exactly the same email word for word about certain players positives and negatives from multiple club recruiters. Much prefer to sit on my own as well and assess what I think. I actually think the best ones do follow their own opinions more than others who seem to eschew taking risks and backing their own judgement more. I also think that sometimes it is unfair on kids, because their papers get stamped early and opinion doesn't shift from the majority because an early judgement about inadequacies isn't deviated from. Anyway good luck with your talent spotting and keep backing your own judgement it is very refreshing and certainly makes it an enjoyable read.