Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Yoda_]

Hi Knightmare, great to see you back in 2019!

As an Essendon supporter, we still on the lookout for a big bodied inside midfielder in the second round and would also love another KPP (either end but we did select Gown last year as one) to develop for the future. More small forwards to develop would also be nice.

One dilemma at our end though? We enter the draft at 19, and follow soon after at 29 then 38.

We obviously looked as though we would be pushing for a top 4 but to other factors we sit 0 - 2 now.

Any names you can put forward to keep an eye on at NAB League (TAC Cup) level? We are apparently set to look heavily through the state leagues but would obviously love us to select a Luke Dunstan/ Charlie Constable type with one/two of our first three selections.

 

[Davo-27]

i have 18 of the same top 20 and 1 of those differences is 21 on my board and the other is Jack Mahony which im surprised isnt in your top 20

as far as Northern Academy players being over-rated? thats a strange one, these guys all played Allies in the Champs last year, did people not watch the Champs last year? or see these players and if they did they would know they are worthy of being talked about, also Tom Greens contested numbers are out of this world he has 70% of his poss are contested, he has a similar physique and play style to Oliver(Melb) and every club would love a player of his ilk.

as for Delahunty the other Academy player in the top 20 this year his first half in the game last week was special, 3 goals and approx 15 disp in an explosive first half that was electric.

maybe Mills was over-rated in his year? i cant think of too many Academy players over-rated in their years.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Did I overrate Blakey (6) last year?

McFadyen I liked a lot last year but we haven't seen him yet due to injury so no conclusions can be drawn on that choice.

Many will say I severely underrated Tarryn Thomas and Bailey Scott last year. And early signs say they're probably right on Scott.

Did I overrated Brayden Crossley (17) in 2017? This may have been my boldest academy call and I was the only one who rated him top 20 to my knowledge, but his first season I feel justified it and recruiters shouldn't be so surprised if they saw any of his NEAFL play.

I'm not going to ignore talent from outside Victoria just because I'm in Victoria. I do my best to see and appropriately rate interstate talent - see Lukosius/Rankine 1/2 on my draft board last year.

If clubs come up with different evaluations on academy talent as with any talent, that's up to them. They make their own evaluations, I make my own. I'm placing guys on my draft board where I think they should be and based around who I project to have the best career, with no regard for what state they come from, who recruiters prefer or what connections they may have to one club or another.

If I rate someone. It's because they're good and they've shown me something.

Green? He's special. I've never seen as inside mid as dominant at stoppages at the same age. Noah Anderson the way he has started the season is making a STRONG case he should be number one, and if he keeps this formline up he may well earn that spot from Green. Based on what Green did last year. He's my number one at this stage.

Where they end up being rated in your phantom drafts and often where they start are two different kettles of fish.
I just seem to have a feeling that at the start of each draft year, the academy players are rated very highly.
I could be wrong with my memory of things.
Blakey - I liked your final ranking of 6
McFadyen - I was saying on the Brissie board that he had potential top 15 rankings in my eyes.
Thomas - I certainly had a little lower than some in the early days.
Crossley - 17 for a player of his ability and size is often a touch too high, but those rankings are okay.

You no doubt watched more Green than myself, but he did not scream top 3 pick to me when I noticed him. Anyway, keep up the good work, I probably should have just kept my internal thoughts private as it added no real benefit to this thread.

 

[henryjeffery]

Did I overrate Blakey (6) last year?

McFadyen I liked a lot last year but we haven't seen him yet due to injury so no conclusions can be drawn on that choice.

Many will say I severely underrated Tarryn Thomas and Bailey Scott last year. And early signs say they're probably right on Scott.

Did I overrated Brayden Crossley (17) in 2017? This may have been my boldest academy call and I was the only one who rated him top 20 to my knowledge, but his first season I feel justified it and recruiters shouldn't be so surprised if they saw any of his NEAFL play.

I'm not going to ignore talent from outside Victoria just because I'm in Victoria. I do my best to see and appropriately rate interstate talent - see Lukosius/Rankine 1/2 on my draft board last year.

If clubs come up with different evaluations on academy talent as with any talent, that's up to them. They make their own evaluations, I make my own. I'm placing guys on my draft board where I think they should be and based around who I project to have the best career, with no regard for what state they come from, who recruiters prefer or what connections they may have to one club or another.

If I rate someone. It's because they're good and they've shown me something.

Green? He's special. I've never seen as inside mid as dominant at stoppages at the same age. Noah Anderson the way he has started the season is making a STRONG case he should be number one, and if he keeps this formline up he may well earn that spot from Green. Based on what Green did last year. He's my number one at this stage.

Green has good bloodlines as well. I feel the Northern Academy teams are underrated especially the Qlds . Wichardt has kicked as many goals as any key forward over past few years, Gore has kicked bags v NT and NSW and Crossley and Martyns numbers compare well against the southern midfielders

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, great to see you back in 2019!

As an Essendon supporter, we still on the lookout for a big bodied inside midfielder in the second round and would also love another KPP (either end but we did select Gown last year as one) to develop for the future. More small forwards to develop would also be nice.

One dilemma at our end though? We enter the draft at 19, and follow soon after at 29 then 38.

We obviously looked as though we would be pushing for a top 4 but to other factors we sit 0 - 2 now.

Any names you can put forward to keep an eye on at NAB League (TAC Cup) level? We are apparently set to look heavily through the state leagues but would obviously love us to select a Luke Dunstan/ Charlie Constable type with one/two of our first three selections.

Thomas Dow, Deven Robertson are good mids. Cooper Stephens if you don't mind taking one who isn't a great kick. They're all suitable 15 onwards.

No small forwards outside the first round I'm all that enchanted with yet, but there will be some that pop up during the season I imagine.

i have 18 of the same top 20 and 1 of those differences is 21 on my board and the other is Jack Mahony which im surprised isnt in your top 20

as far as Northern Academy players being over-rated? thats a strange one, these guys all played Allies in the Champs last year, did people not watch the Champs last year? or see these players and if they did they would know they are worthy of being talked about, also Tom Greens contested numbers are out of this world he has 70% of his poss are contested, he has a similar physique and play style to Oliver(Melb) and every club would love a player of his ilk.

as for Delahunty the other Academy player in the top 20 this year his first half in the game last week was special, 3 goals and approx 15 disp in an explosive first half that was electric.

maybe Mills was over-rated in his year? i cant think of too many Academy players over-rated in their years.

Mahony is decent mid/fwd. Pressure is good. I have him top 30, and I could make a case around 15, but there are others I favour at this stage. Looks like a role player, and that's fine, but he doesn't look like a top end choice with his impact not as high as others in that side.

Delanhunty is a good choice for the top 20 and he was another I had in that conversation and sits in my top 30. I'm planning at this stage on watching the GWS Academy this weekend as one of my games so he will be among those I'll be keeping a close eye out for.

Where they end up being rated in your phantom drafts and often where they start are two different kettles of fish.
I just seem to have a feeling that at the start of each draft year, the academy players are rated very highly.
I could be wrong with my memory of things.
Blakey - I liked your final ranking of 6
McFadyen - I was saying on the Brissie board that he had potential top 15 rankings in my eyes.
Thomas - I certainly had a little lower than some in the early days.
Crossley - 17 for a player of his ability and size is often a touch too high, but those rankings are okay.

You no doubt watched more Green than myself, but he did not scream top 3 pick to me when I noticed him. Anyway, keep up the good work, I probably should have just kept my internal thoughts private as it added no real benefit to this thread.

You're probably right about where some of the Academy guys start. Bowes is one who dropped top of mind. It feels like particularly with the QLD boys the development may not be as strong based on that.

I don't necessarily think your thoughts should be dismissed as there is in any observation some kind of half or partial truth.

Green has good bloodlines as well. I feel the Northern Academy teams are underrated especially the Qlds . Wichardt has kicked as many goals as any key forward over past few years, Gore has kicked bags v NT and NSW and Crossley and Martyns numbers compare well against the southern midfielders

Some good talent again this year in Div 2. Will be good seeing them over the next few weeks streamed.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on potentially this year's best key forward - Charlie Dean: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/26426279/is-charlie-dean-best-key-forward-afl-draft

 

[scoman]

In terms of overrating academy players there is a bit of a pattern of Qld midfield types not living up to the hype. Qld talls on the other hand seem to fair much better. I wonder if it has to do with the competition from other sports. The speedy athletic small to mid-sized kids tend to gravitate towards sports with a higher profile in Qld. Whereas if you are tall and skinny the higher profile sports such as league and soccer just aren't really suitable. AFL is the best fit for many of them.
As a result the small to medium sized kids with speed and athletic traits that do choose to play AFL dominate at junior level from a very young age. They are used to being best on ground week in week out and very little changes right through to under 18 level. Then when they do get drafted they just aren't used to playing against people better than them and struggle to lift their game to the next level?
Just a theory.

 

[Knightmare]

In terms of overrating academy players there is a bit of a pattern of Qld midfield types not living up to the hype. Qld talls on the other hand seem to fair much better. I wonder if it has to do with the competition from other sports. The speedy athletic small to mid-sized kids tend to gravitate towards sports with a higher profile in Qld. Whereas if you are tall and skinny the higher profile sports such as league and soccer just aren't really suitable. AFL is the best fit for many of them.
As a result the small to medium sized kids with speed and athletic traits that do choose to play AFL dominate at junior level from a very young age. They are used to being best on ground week in week out and very little changes right through to under 18 level. Then when they do get drafted they just aren't used to playing against people better than them and struggle to lift their game to the next level?
Just a theory.

You're right to observe tall Queenslanders have for the most part been the successful ones. Harris Andrews. Charlie Dixon. Kurt Tippett. Nick Riewoldt. Daniel Merrett.

You'll get your Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko's here/there but the value tends to be in the talls from QLD and they're the ones who often outperform their draft positions frequently from QLD.

You'll find with the QLDers, they'll play NEAFL. And that's a decent standard of footy. You're playing against men there. And there are ex AFL players and some very good state leaguers beyond just the AFL reserves sides for the two QLD and two NSW clubs.

Maybe it's lack of development/development programs. Maybe they're just not as relentlessly focused on AFL there. Or maybe the clubs (GC particularly) and Brisbane before Fagan/Hodge arrived just aren't great developing talent.

 

[Blood red]

Did I overrate Blakey (6) last year?

McFadyen I liked a lot last year but we haven't seen him yet due to injury so no conclusions can be drawn on that choice.

Many will say I severely underrated Tarryn Thomas and Bailey Scott last year. And early signs say they're probably right on Scott.

Did I overrated Brayden Crossley (17) in 2017? This may have been my boldest academy call and I was the only one who rated him top 20 to my knowledge, but his first season I feel justified it and recruiters shouldn't be so surprised if they saw any of his NEAFL play.

I'm not going to ignore talent from outside Victoria just because I'm in Victoria. I do my best to see and appropriately rate interstate talent - see Lukosius/Rankine 1/2 on my draft board last year.

If clubs come up with different evaluations on academy talent as with any talent, that's up to them. They make their own evaluations, I make my own. I'm placing guys on my draft board where I think they should be and based around who I project to have the best career, with no regard for what state they come from, who recruiters prefer or what connections they may have to one club or another.

If I rate someone. It's because they're good and they've shown me something.

Green? He's special. I've never seen as inside mid as dominant at stoppages at the same age. Noah Anderson the way he has started the season is making a STRONG case he should be number one, and if he keeps this formline up he may well earn that spot from Green. Based on what Green did last year. He's my number one at this stage.

Yep he is good.
However, the Swan's big bodied mid kept him almost silent in their trial a few weeks ago.
Sad that he is out this week, because of an injury. Would have liked to have seen a rematch. Don't think it was a one game wonder.
Swans mids are definitely under rated.
Mckellar, Barling, Gaden and Mcgrath should be all on deck for Sandringham.
All big, fast and rough.
Then Gulden, Watling, Swaney and Thorne sniping around the edges come into full effect.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Any updates on the following Dogs F/S prospects?
Joshua Kellett
Oliver Liberatore
Tyler Kolyniuk
Daniel Romero

 

[Knightmare]

Any updates on the following Dogs F/S prospects?
Joshua Kellett
Oliver Liberatore
Tyler Kolyniuk
Daniel Romero

Kellett a relatively strong start for Western. Best in round one, second best in round two. Finds a fair bit of it and ball use solid. Would like to see him intercept more. Potentially draftable and with a good season and continued improvement I can see him receiving strong considering in the second half of the draft.

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Brodie kemp did some things today that suggests he could become a pretty special midfielder. He’s a modern day prototype big inside midfielder. Thoughts?

 

[eDPS]

Brodie kemp did some things today that suggests he could become a pretty special midfielder. He’s a modern day prototype big inside midfielder. Thoughts?

Top 3 for me for good reason

 

[Gulliver72]

Yep he is good.
However, the Swan's big bodied mid kept him almost silent in their trial a few weeks ago.
Sad that he is out this week, because of an injury. Would have liked to have seen a rematch. Don't think it was a one game wonder.
Swans mids are definitely under rated.
Mckellar, Barling, Gaden and Mcgrath should be all on deck for Sandringham.
All big, fast and rough.
Then Gulden, Watling, Swaney and Thorne sniping around the edges come into full effect.

Hows Josh Raynor going this year, big wraps on him last year

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Top 3 for me for good reason

Yep I’ll agree on that one, what do you like about him?

 

[Blood red]

Hows Josh Raynor going this year, big wraps on him last year

Last 2 games plus 2 trials and a game of NEAFL.... would rank probably 5th best Swans prospect in my opinion.
They tried him in the mids, he cannot compete with the specialists.
He seems to be resting on his past form as a kpp.
Very dangerous.

 

[Blood red]

Where they end up being rated in your phantom drafts and often where they start are two different kettles of fish.
I just seem to have a feeling that at the start of each draft year, the academy players are rated very highly.
I could be wrong with my memory of things.
Blakey - I liked your final ranking of 6
McFadyen - I was saying on the Brissie board that he had potential top 15 rankings in my eyes.
Thomas - I certainly had a little lower than some in the early days.
Crossley - 17 for a player of his ability and size is often a touch too high, but those rankings are okay.

You no doubt watched more Green than myself, but he did not scream top 3 pick to me when I noticed him. Anyway, keep up the good work, I probably should have just kept my internal thoughts private as it added no real benefit to this thread.

I keep saying it.
But the northern academies have produced tough skilled prospects this year.
If anything, you have under rated their talent.
Sorry, I know they are from non traditionalist afl states, and don't attend the Old Boys Schools.
I've even read that the Seans team aren't as skilked and simply win because they can Bully their opponents.
Might just indicate that the acadamies develope the whole package, and now the traditionalist have to find a new reason to bag them out.
I guess we wait and see how we go against the TAC teams.
Then maybe the prospect table will be turned agsin!
Doubt it though... can't change the world.

 

[Blood red]

My issue is, The Swans keep drafting skinny, skilled Victorian kids who never play more then NEAFL because the supposed physical development rarely occurres.

 

[DavyRed]

Last 2 games plus 2 trials and a game of NEAFL.... would rank probably 5th best Swans prospect in my opinion.
They tried him in the mids, he cannot compete with the specialists.
He seems to be resting on his past form as a kpp.
Very dangerous.

Let’s just be polite for now and say he’s been a bit ‘underwhelming’ thus far. Needs to put in a major effort against Sandringham to regain a bit of lost ground.

 

[Gulliver72]

Yep I’ll agree on that one, what do you like about him?

Watching the suns the 666 rule being introduced this year it’s not the same game . Contested footy not outside runners are the future and this will be refelected in the player’s who get drafted this year

 

[Blood red]

Let’s just be polite for now and say he’s been a bit ‘underwhelming’ thus far. Needs to put in a major effort against Sandringham to regain a bit of lost ground.

I wasn't being disparaging, he is an excellent kpp, not a mid.
5th in this crew is also a compliment!
He is a very capable player... like 6 or 7 others, and it will depend on what the Swans see as priority as to who they take in the draft.
Like the other top prospects, they have been there since the u11s and the Swans know all their skills inside and out.

 

[Knightmare]

Brodie kemp did some things today that suggests he could become a pretty special midfielder. He’s a modern day prototype big inside midfielder. Thoughts?

Watched the first quarter of the game and will be watching the rest of it tomorrow.

He's a seriously good footballer. With a good season, can go top 5.

Hows Josh Raynor going this year, big wraps on him last year

Have watched both of his NAB League games so far. A strong contested grab. I'm wondering what else extra he can do and will be watching for what other things he can do over the coming weeks.

I keep saying it.
But the northern academies have produced tough skilled prospects this year.
If anything, you have under rated their talent.
Sorry, I know they are from non traditionalist afl states, and don't attend the Old Boys Schools.
I've even read that the Seans team aren't as skilked and simply win because they can Bully their opponents.
Might just indicate that the acadamies develope the whole package, and now the traditionalist have to find a new reason to bag them out.
I guess we wait and see how we go against the TAC teams.
Then maybe the prospect table will be turned agsin!
Doubt it though... can't change the world.

Looking at the quality of the GWS v Sydney game by contrast to the Sandy/Oakleigh game. I so much preferred the NSW Academy game. Sandy/Oakleigh looked like a game of rugby and wasn't anywhere near how either club can play. And we were probably watching 8 of the top 30 prospects and 3 of the first 5 in that game. I really like and I'll say from both NSW sides the way they both move the ball and the speed with which they move it on. There is talent in both Academies.

 

[Blood red]

Watched the first quarter of the game and will be watching the rest of it tomorrow.

He's a seriously good footballer. With a good season, can go top 5.



Have watched both of his NAB League games so far. A strong contested grab. I'm wondering what else extra he can do and will be watching for what other things he can do over the coming weeks.



Looking at the quality of the GWS v Sydney game by contrast to the Sandy/Oakleigh game. I so much preferred the NSW Academy game. Sandy/Oakleigh looked like a game of rugby and wasn't anywhere near how either club can play. And we were probably watching 8 of the top 30 prospects and 3 of the first 5 in that game. I really like and I'll say from both NSW sides the way they both move the ball and the speed with which they move it on. There is talent in both Academies.

I agree.
I watched the sandy game streamed, which I know misses a lot of the play off the ball, and thought the same thing.
Swans will hopefully be at full strength on Saturday against Sandy; Gulden and McGrath back in the mids, so will allow others to play in their correct positions too. Hoping those who decide on draftees and prospects agree with you, as long as the Swans get rid of the overuse of handballs in dangerous field position.

 

[Knightmare]

Where they end up being rated in your phantom drafts and often where they start are two different kettles of fish.
I just seem to have a feeling that at the start of each draft year, the academy players are rated very highly.
I could be wrong with my memory of things.
Blakey - I liked your final ranking of 6
McFadyen - I was saying on the Brissie board that he had potential top 15 rankings in my eyes.
Thomas - I certainly had a little lower than some in the early days.
Crossley - 17 for a player of his ability and size is often a touch too high, but those rankings are okay.

You no doubt watched more Green than myself, but he did not scream top 3 pick to me when I noticed him. Anyway, keep up the good work, I probably should have just kept my internal thoughts private as it added no real benefit to this thread.

With Green it depends when you saw him. U18 Champs and in the NEAFL he did. I don't think I've ever seen him play a bad game. He'll win a stack of it inside and dish by hand immaculately every week.

I'm in the minority with having Green as high as I do, so your views on Green are more on parr with where recruiters have him.

Top 3 for me for good reason

Until today's game I wouldn't have said top 3. Seeing his sheer acceleration and athleticism just now v Gippsland. I'm thinking he's up there in that conversation with Green/Anderson and plausibly pushing for Rowell's spot at 3 if he can replicate that level of impact/influence.

 

[goat123]

hey Knightmare have you watched the tassie game yet if so what were your thoughts on Oneills game?
will peppin and tyler mcgginis impressed too