Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Murraj1966]

Owens at 11? Are you just trying to upset St Kilda fans haven't we suffered enough?

 

[Knightmare]

Owens at 11? Are you just trying to upset St Kilda fans haven't we suffered enough?

Luckily for Saints fans my power rankings don't directly correlate with where guys get picked. I've had guys go top-20 and go undrafted, Callow most recently and before that Butts.

There is with that said though some level of concern around a bid coming inside the top-20 for Owens. There is talk in the 15-20 range of a club having interest. So he may have to be treated as a bonus if a bid comes after 20.

Saints will at least get Windhager. I can't see him attracting a first round bid. He could attract a second or third round bid though.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Luckily for Saints fans my power rankings don't directly correlate with where guys get picked. I've had guys go top-20 and go undrafted, Callow most recently and before that Butts.

There is with that said though some level of concern around a bid coming inside the top-20 for Owens. There is talk in the 15-20 range of a club having interest. So he may have to be treated as a bonus if a bid comes after 20.

Saints will at least get Windhager. I can't see him attracting a first round bid. He could attract a second or third round bid though.

could you explain how his ranking seems to have improved over a period of time where he hasn't played any footy at all? I'm excited that he seems to be a very good prospect but very upset that we might miss out. I thought the break would have resulted in him sliding down the rankings while interstate players got more of the spotlight

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Question of discussion: Am I on my own in being high conviction on Jack Avery and Sam Skinner?

How high is your conviction on anyone when your rankings vary so much month-to-month?

 

[Knightmare]

could you explain how his ranking seems to have improved over a period of time where he hasn't played any footy at all? I'm excited that he seems to be a very good prospect but very upset that we might miss out. I thought the break would have resulted in him sliding down the rankings while interstate players got more of the spotlight

As it has been a while since the Vic boys have played (and same goes with Erasmus in WA), I have been using what spare time I've had over the past couple of weeks to refresh myself on some of the games I have tape on to see if there are any further changes required to my rankings. As it's really been a lot of SA and WA footy to take in in recent months, and looking through my top-50, it feels silly how under-represented the Victorian's are, even accounting for less games and reduced pre-seasons.

As there hasn't been any Vic footy, I wanted as best I could further to this point, to calculate and project ahead as to what I believe based on how they were going in the games before, how I might with more games based on that trajectory or recent performance have regarded them. So Owens and Knevitt as two examples, they really came good in that last month and I feel like they would have carried that momentum into the final parts of the season had it continued. Why weren't they top-20 earlier? Sample size of that standard of play smaller than I'd have liked. So there is that element of speculation with a lot of them, Taylor another, where I feel like they could have continued with that standard or even improved further.

Further, with Owens I knew he had grown a lot, but I wasn't fully aware of exactly how much he had grown. If you're growing that much in that space of time, at this age, that only improves my optimism around his long term prospects.

So I guess you could say, it's a multi-faceted reason for his higher position on my draft board.

How high is your conviction on anyone when your rankings vary so much month-to-month?

It's an even draft. We have our clear top two. I have a solid 3-5. Then after that top-5, I could rate them anywhere 6-30 and don't view the separation within that range as significant. Within that range, I wouldn't say my level of conviction is all that high. There are guys who won't go nearly that high who I have in there with confidence, but within that range separating the players is something I'm finding a challenge this year, as there isn't anything meaningful in it.

You could ask me if I wanted pick 7, or any two picks inside the top-25, and I'd opt for the any two inside the top-25, and I'd feel like I'd have a genuine chance to get someone better with one of those picks than whoever the eventual pick 7 is.

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

As it has been a while since the Vic boys have played (and same goes with Erasmus in WA), I have been using what spare time I've had over the past couple of weeks to refresh myself on some of the games I have tape on to see if there are any further changes required to my rankings. As it's really been a lot of SA and WA footy to take in in recent months, and looking through my top-50, it feels silly how under-represented the Victorian's are, even accounting for less games and reduced pre-seasons.

As there hasn't been any Vic footy, I wanted as best I could further to this point, to calculate and project ahead as to what I believe based on how they were going in the games before, how I might with more games based on that trajectory or recent performance have regarded them. So Owens and Knevitt as two examples, they really came good in that last month and I feel like they would have carried that momentum into the final parts of the season had it continued. Why weren't they top-20 earlier? Sample size of that standard of play smaller than I'd have liked. So there is that element of speculation with a lot of them, Taylor another, where I feel like they could have continued with that standard or even improved further.

Further, with Owens I knew he had grown a lot, but I wasn't fully aware of exactly how much he had grown. If you're growing that much in that space of time, at this age, that only improves my optimism around his long term prospects.

So I guess you could say, it's a multi-faceted reason for his higher position on my draft board.



It's an even draft. We have our clear top two. I have a solid 3-5. Then after that top-5, I could rate them anywhere 6-30 and don't view the separation within that range as significant. Within that range, I wouldn't say my level of conviction is all that high. There are guys who won't go nearly that high who I have in there with confidence, but within that range separating the players is something I'm finding a challenge this year, as there isn't anything meaningful in it.

You could ask me if I wanted pick 7, or any two picks inside the top-25, and I'd opt for the any two inside the top-25, and I'd feel like I'd have a genuine chance to get someone better with one of those picks than whoever the eventual pick 7 is.

thanks. that makes sense. I'm definitely nervous he goes early but if we manage to snag him I'm glad to see you rate him as an exciting prospect

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Hey KM;

Who do you rate higher Josh Gibcus or Denver Grainger Barass

 

[Knightmare]

thanks. that makes sense. I'm definitely nervous he goes early but if we manage to snag him I'm glad to see you rate him as an exciting prospect

There is the change Owens is still there, but with the recent talk being clubs like him inside the top-20, you need to plan for him not being there and treat it as a bonus if he is.

Hey KM;

Who do you rate higher Josh Gibcus or Denver Grainger Barass

Definitely Grainger-Barras. Defensively, as an intercepter, more of a rebounding component to his game. He'd probably look a lot better if used forward too by comparison.

Gibcus is the more physically developed, taller and higher leaper, but as a footballer isn't as complete nor nearly effective.

 

[WCE_Talk]

Hey KM

Seems like I am in the minority, but I wouldn’t at all mind West Coast taking Sinn at 10 (12), I’ve seen quiet a bit of him and really rate him, is there a particular reason why others are not as high on him anymore? Injuries?


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[Knightmare]

Hey KM

Seems like I am in the minority, but I wouldn’t at all mind West Coast taking Sinn at 10 (12), I’ve seen quiet a bit of him and really rate him, is there a particular reason why others are not as high on him anymore? Injuries?


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I like him for his run out of defence, and he can generate drive by foot too, but I do see better value in the first round available, particularly in the way of midfielders.

I'd want to feel more confident with the contested side of Sinn's game to have him inside my top-20. There are too many games I've seen where he has been too quiet other than for a few moments where he'll bob up and generate run. If he had that high end contested component with the run I'd feel like he could do it at a higher frequency, more consistently.

Ultimately it comes down to the price premium you're willing to pay for someone of his type and the extent to which you're confident in his game.

 

[JDWCE]

I like him for his run out of defence, and he can generate drive by foot too, but I do see better value in the first round available, particularly in the way of midfielders.

I'd want to feel more confident with the contested side of Sinn's game to have him inside my top-20. There are too many games I've seen where he has been too quiet other than for a few moments where he'll bob up and generate run. If he had that high end contested component with the run I'd feel like he could do it at a higher frequency, more consistently.

Ultimately it comes down to the price premium you're willing to pay for someone of his type and the extent to which you're confident in his game.

In what range do you see Sinn going? I know we're still a fair way out from draft day but I like the idea you had a few pages back of moving our first pick into 2 picks in the top 25 if possible. Plenty of mids available by the looks of things and potentilly gives us the chance to grab a very good mid as well as someone like Sinn

 

[THE A5]

Sheldrick is a tough boy and by no stretch of the imagination had his colours lowered.

I thought Sheldrick was absolutely exceptional and was my B.O.G - even on a losing team. How he kept competing, particularly given the beating and frankly at some points unsportsman-like approach from some of the Swan Districts boys towards him, he will have won a lot more fans than he could have lost.

That low percentage kick in board on his non dom foot cost them a granny. I know he is a kid but for me that undid most of his good work on the day.

 

[THE A5]

Maybe Cal has seen better games from Wilmot than I have, but I've found Wilmot to be low to medium frequency of impact and at times I've found some of his decisions to be shaky in the small sample I've watched.

Wilmot can generate drive with his run and speed his relative strong points, he's also for a smaller type pretty competitive and capable defensively (able enough overhead and at ground level and can intercept here/there) and the late year birthday makes you think for a moment, but he's not one I'm as confident in as others are and haven't seen the level of frequency of impact to rate him ahead of others at his position at this point.

It would have been great seeing him over the latter part of the season to see if he could have improved, but not to be.



Suns do appear to be dangling 3 and have it there if the right trade opportunity comes up, or so the reports are suggesting.

No relationship with Academy players. They can just be added straight to the Suns' list again.



Clark is an aerobic beast. Covers a heap of ground. His style is a more defensive one. He's definitely not a bash/crash inside mid, nor is he explosive or one of those with a lot of weapons. He's more outside than inside if anything.



I'm expecting Richmond to have their sights set higher than 7, but the earlier trade proposal was an example of what West Coast should be asking for, with a view to secure a two for one.

Stack's value is one I find hard to gauge. Happy for you to have a go giving him a value. I liked his play at the end of the season, was a fan of his first season, and he's one I'd be strongly suggesting Richmond retain.



What would it take to secure Lukosius from the Suns? Being contracted, I'm sure their position would be that he's not available. But I do think there is the chance 12 months from now his value will be lower.

In a trade for Lukosius, I'd be suggesting Port Adelaide put forward Byrne-Jones as a name. 2020 B+F winner, top-10 again this year. And if Gold Coast want to move up from 16 to 19, I'd oblige.

If that deal was put to Gold Coast, I'd be interested to get a feel for if they say no, and if so, how quickly. And if the answer was no, I'd be listening to counter offers, to see if there is any interest.

The Suns need good established players, so I wouldn't be wasting their time in making an offer for Lukosius.

Same would apply with Rankine if making an offer. While he's not worth what Lukosius is, he's another worth making a serious offer for.



There is a great deal of evenness this year. I'd be looking to make one pick into multiple inside the top-30 if needing midfielders.

Would Gold Coast consider 19+22+ something for 10? They're the kind of trades I'd explore.

Or Brisbane with 14 and 18 if they have a target at 10.

There are a number of teams you could have that conversation with if you hear rumblings of interest in moving up.

Maybe it could be made into 3 in the first 30? You can only find out by asking.

So clarke sounds like a jack Redden. Don’t hate that at all cause thats a vital role if he’s consistent

 

[Kwality]

As it has been a while since the Vic boys have played (and same goes with Erasmus in WA),

Erasmus captained Hale School in the interschool Aicock Cup comp.

 

[Kwality]

So clarke sounds like a jack Redden. Don’t hate that at all cause thats a vital role if he’s consistent

& he's not a kid, if good enough he could go in 2022.

 

[Knightmare]

In what range do you see Sinn going? I know we're still a fair way out from draft day but I like the idea you had a few pages back of moving our first pick into 2 picks in the top 25 if possible. Plenty of mids available by the looks of things and potentilly gives us the chance to grab a very good mid as well as someone like Sinn

Sinn I'm seeing as a 10-25 pick in this draft.

That low percentage kick in board on his non dom foot cost them a granny. I know he is a kid but for me that undid most of his good work on the day.

A lot of his work by foot wasn't pretty. It's not his strength. He's a bull as that ball winner and has a burst with that, but there is a reason why he's not seen as an early pick.

So clarke sounds like a jack Redden. Don’t hate that at all cause thats a vital role if he’s consistent

Tone down the contested side a few notches and you're getting warmer. Plausible role player potential, but one of those where you draft him on who he is, for the way he contributes.

Erasmus captained Hale School in the interschool Aicock Cup comp.

To add more, against meaningful competition. He hasn't been playing Colts let alone u19 champs.

 

[THE A5]

Sinn I'm seeing as a 10-25 pick in this draft.



A lot of his work by foot wasn't pretty. It's not his strength. He's a bull as that ball winner and has a burst with that, but there is a reason why he's not seen as an early pick.



Tone down the contested side a few notches and you're getting warmer. Plausible role player potential, but one of those where you draft him on who he is, for the way he contributes.



To add more, against meaningful competition. He hasn't been playing Colts let alone u19 champs.

The way I saw it was not skill but decision making and match awareness. It was a lazy kick to a 3v1 that literally end up going the other way ended being the bridge too far for them. Prior to that moment I thought a few plays while being very good were also kinda show off to recruited and thats the vibe I got with his right foot in board. That kick in board on the right would have been anything but wrong time in the game to do so and just was a high risk low reward kick.

Reddens not the greatest contested player can do both but as a pure inside mid he needs 1-2 more in front. He genuinly thrives with a balanced role. So kinda get that vibe to. That said Clarke attracts for his defensive side for me. Yeo does it but allows TK, Shuey and Sheed to be more attacking through the middle.

 

[Smythe]

Erasmus captained Hale School in the interschool Aicock Cup comp.

say that 3 times really fast

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Luckily for Saints fans my power rankings don't directly correlate with where guys get picked. I've had guys go top-20 and go undrafted, Callow most recently and before that Butts.

There is with that said though some level of concern around a bid coming inside the top-20 for Owens. There is talk in the 15-20 range of a club having interest. So he may have to be treated as a bonus if a bid comes after 20.

Saints will at least get Windhager. I can't see him attracting a first round bid. He could attract a second or third round bid though.

I think (& hope) that Owens’ awkward kicking action will deter clubs from taking a punt on him in the top 20.


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[HumanMeatball]

Tigers would no doubt love to move up to 2. I'm not seeing the compelling reason why GWS would agree to that trade though.

GWS would probably say, throw in Noah Balta or Shai Bolton with pick 7 and we'll give you 2.

That’s disgustingly bad

 

[Knightmare]

The way I saw it was not skill but decision making and match awareness. It was a lazy kick to a 3v1 that literally end up going the other way ended being the bridge too far for them. Prior to that moment I thought a few plays while being very good were also kinda show off to recruited and thats the vibe I got with his right foot in board. That kick in board on the right would have been anything but wrong time in the game to do so and just was a high risk low reward kick.

Reddens not the greatest contested player can do both but as a pure inside mid he needs 1-2 more in front. He genuinly thrives with a balanced role. So kinda get that vibe to. That said Clarke attracts for his defensive side for me. Yeo does it but allows TK, Shuey and Sheed to be more attacking through the middle.

The kick in question for Sheldrick, and I'm not in his mind, but the sense I got as he's a left footer, he wouldn't normally in that situation go onto his right I wouldn't assuming. There likely was physical reason why he didn't feel he could kick on his left in that moment. Perhaps a corkie? Not sure. He was already pretty beaten by that point, so that's my assumption on that kick anyway. In any case, I can't say I'll be crediting his decision making for being anything exceptional either.

That’s disgustingly bad

Of course. If a team isn't serious about moving a pick, they're going to knock back a request and ask for something over the top to test how serious you are about moving up.

I wouldn't trade Balta or Bolton for the second live pick this year myself, let alone with a pick.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

Tigers would no doubt love to move up to 2. I'm not seeing the compelling reason why GWS would agree to that trade though.

GWS would probably say, throw in Noah Balta or Shai Bolton with pick 7 and we'll give you 2.

Horrible deal. Values Balta or Bolton at pick 22. In the current market, that's not enough.

If I'm the decision maker for West Coast I'm talking to Richmond about a trade down from 10 for their 15 and 26, and maybe try to get a Sydney Stack thrown in as a sweetner while I'm at it given he's unsigned and doesn't appear to be a priority to bring back.

Wow, that's a pretty low impression of Sydney Stack you've got there KM. That's essentially 1840pts + Stack for only 1395pts - I'm not sure the Tigers are that much in need of a rookie level salary dump just yet. Besides, he's got his fans .behind the walls at Tigerland.

And I think the only chance Richmond would be likely to consider #15 and #26 for the Eagles #10 would be if someone they really liked but didn't expect slipped to #7 and the player they'd originally earmarked for #7 happened to be still there at #10.

I'm expecting Richmond to have their sights set higher than 7, but the earlier trade proposal was an example of what West Coast should be asking for, with a view to secure a two for one.

Stack's value is one I find hard to gauge. Happy for you to have a go giving him a value. I liked his play at the end of the season, was a fan of his first season, and he's one I'd be strongly suggesting Richmond retain.

I'd have his value at more than -445pts that the swap of 10 for 15&26 is. Is he worth much currently? Absolutely not. But the pick swap itself is a horrible deal for Richmond let alone giving away some free steak knives as well.

Richmond have a great draft hand and there are teams that NEED points. We should be in a position where any pick swaps see us not having any deficits, or very small ones. -445 points is bad business. I would be very disappointed if it was even considered.

 

[Knightmare]

Horrible deal. Values Balta or Bolton at pick 22. In the current market, that's not enough.



I'd have his value at more than -445pts that the swap of 10 for 15&26 is. Is he worth much currently? Absolutely not. But the pick swap itself is a horrible deal for Richmond let alone giving away some free steak knives as well.

Richmond have a great draft hand and there are teams that NEED points. We should be in a position where any pick swaps see us not having any deficits, or very small ones. -445 points is bad business. I would be very disappointed if it was even considered.

As per my list needs piece, the best play for Richmond is looking to move up to pick 3, with a view towards securing Josh Ward. Otherwise holding the current picks is fine, with a good mix of selections possible with those picks. I don't see any urgent need for Richmond to do anything aggressive.

I wouldn't personally be moving Stack either in Richmond's situation. He doesn't have a meaningful value on a level where there are some teams who wouldn't make an offer for him/wouldn't want to use a list spot on him. So I'm not seeing fair value being extractable. It's more if you're a recruiter for another team and feel Richmond aren't valuing him, as he remains unsigned and hasn't been a regular best-22 piece, so he's someone I'd target if I feel I have a strong culture in place to get the best out of him.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

As per my list needs piece, the best play for Richmond is looking to move up to pick 3, with a view towards securing Josh Ward. Otherwise holding the current picks is fine, with a good mix of selections possible with those picks. I don't see any urgent need for Richmond to do anything aggressive.

I wouldn't personally be moving Stack either in Richmond's situation. He doesn't have a meaningful value on a level where there are some teams who wouldn't make an offer for him/wouldn't want to use a list spot on him. So I'm not seeing fair value being extractable. It's more if you're a recruiter for another team and feel Richmond aren't valuing him, as he remains unsigned and hasn't been a regular best-22 piece, so he's someone I'd target if I feel I have a strong culture in place to get the best out of him.

That's all fine. Moving up, no issue with it.

But Richmonds draft hand is strong, and we have other teams that need points, If we're doing pick swaps we should be coming out pretty even. So considering that, a -445pt trade should be rejected out of hand, let alone throwing in steak knives. I'm fully aware Stack isn't worth much, replace Stack with any name, Ralphsmith, Mansell, whoever. It's just a bad deal no matter the name. I'd hope if they were hit with this, that Hartley and co shut it down on the pick swap alone.

 

[Holz]

hey KM love your work.

Mac Andrew has been listed at 70kg for a while now. Is there any word on him putting on any size. I would imagine he would need to put on 20kg+ minimum for him to play as a ruck in the AFL and hopefully he would have put on a little size over the last few months.

Do you think however picks him up will develop him in the 2s as a pure ruck or have him play as a forward. Have been following Xerri as a north man and he has looked very good in the VFL as a ruck but looks out of place up forward in the AFL so not sure what the projection for the next few years of Mac could look like.