Pick 6

[76woodenspooners]

Now you and and Apex have got my back up. If what I suggests happens expect to see your posts re-quoted with a big fat "I told you so"

I want to see one of those ladder predictors of yours that shows if Essendon get busted for PED's again, and Carlton get busted for a salary cap breach again, and if every other game of the round gets called off due to locust plague, and we beat Melbourne by 186 points - then we scrape into the finals by half a percentage point

 

[ottoman]

I want to see one of those ladder predictors of yours that shows if Essendon get busted for PED's again, and Carlton get busted for a salary cap breach again, and if every other game of the round gets called off due to lotus plague, and we beat Melbourne by 186 points - then we scrape into the finals by half a percentage point

Are you suggesting they were unrealistic.
Unfortunately even the ladder predictor can't defy the laws of mathematics so have been shelved for this season.
They will be back predicting all sorts of success for us again next year.

 

[76woodenspooners]

... Whilst I'm ok to trade for Lever, not for 800k ...

Isn't TPP about to go up 20%, and we have to adjust our value system accordingly?

So what might have cost $650K last year will cost $800K this year

#inflation

Although a club that is in "will repair TPP in 12 months" mode will have factored all that in and probably can't even do that. Looks like we'll be loading up on draftees given that predicament.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I'm with you Otto.
People underestimate the emotion attached to retirees.
Sure Essendon lost Jobe and Stanton, more than countered by Freo losing Zac Dawson and Ibbotson.

Gold

You're a funny guy, I likes

It's the Ibbotson thing that gives Freo the great edge

 

[76woodenspooners]

Are you suggesting they were unrealistic.

Not at all!

Everything I listed has happened before in recent history

(Well, maybe not the locust plague, however a game was called off but nobody would want that reason repeated )

Unfortunately even the ladder predictor can't defy the laws of mathematics so have been shelved for this season.

Hmmm. Can you reach for the laws of general relativity to make it happen?

They will be back predicting all sorts of success for us again next year.

Good man!

Hopefully your maths skills don't get tested next year ("If we turn up today then we qualify for finals! top 4! top 2!)

 

[Scodog10]

Isn't TPP about to go up 20%, and we have to adjust our value system accordingly?

So what might have cost $650K last year will cost $800K this year

#inflation

Although a club who is in "will repair TPP in 12 months" mode will have factored all that in and probably can't even do that. Looks like we'll be loading up on draftees given that predicament.

I think being in TPP repair mode indicates that we've decided to bite the bullet on Mayne which will probably put a $600k, or thereabouts, hole in our salary cap next year.

I'd love to bring Lynch in obviously, but it means that in order to do so the trade would have to involve Sidebottom or Adams to clear the decks which the club won't do, IMO.

The only fear I have is that mega offers come for JDG, which they will, because we're to weak to hold him to his contract and potentially won't be able to match them.

 

[76woodenspooners]

The only fear I have is that mega offers come for JDG, which they will, because we're to weak to hold him to his contract and potentially won't be able to match them.

JDG is contracted?

 

[The Dawes]

Take pick 6 to the draft

The end.

 

[Moeydw]

I'd do it. There's some good KPP's who are going to fall down the draft order. Two picks in the teens would set us up for some good choices.

I like Aaron Naughton (KPD) or Noah Balta (KPF) and think they will be available around one of brisbanes picks if we trade for them.

 

[Buena]

If we didn't have Jeremy Howe intercept marking everything across our half back line, i'd be all for trading in Jake Lever. But we do, and we have bigger fish to fry, so draft the bast available tall with pick 6. To do anything else would be crazy.

 

[robertg22]

Ahhhh pick 6. The poison chalice. Over the years so many bad mistakes have been made at 6.

2001 - Sampi over a lot of players in the super draft
2002 - Salopek over Mackie (who went at 7)
2004 - Tom Williams over Lewis
2005 - Beau Dowler over Ryder
2006 - Thorp over Selwood
2007 - Myers over others like Danger, Rioli, Rance who were a few picks behind
2008 - Yarran - we know his story now unfortunately
2010 - Conca over Heppell (8), Lynch (11)

Not too many over the last few years though (worth noting we also too Shaz at 6!)

That said of course we should keep it. Not sure how realistic it is us trading it for Richmond's two picks in the teens, they'll need one of those for Patrick Naish you'd think.

Hope we can get Brander at 6.

 

[Soups]

Coffield played mainly off the HB in the champs. Has good speed and a nice kick. Has scope to play midfield but will probably start his career on the HBF.



Brander played a lot of his champs down back where he didn't look comfortable at all to me. Was found out by the younger Lukosius against SA. Moved back up forward for his last game and looked a lot better. Presents well and can take a good grab, his kicking can let me down a lot though.


This kid is rocketing up the ranks. Is the best KPD in this years draft. Can play 1v1 and intercept mark and rebound very well. Has an awkward kicking style but it works for him. Naughton has been having some big impact in the WAFL.


Probably would be a reach at 6 but Balta is a tall Ultility that has played in a lot of positions this year. Played down back in the champs and while he probably didn't have the greatest games there were some signs there he could be a player. Has a thumping kick, can take a mark and has some X factor about him. I like him up forward most.



The Fog. Beast of a bloke who has been talked about for a long time. Had a poor champs but was under an injury cloud with a knee. I think he can still be one of the best kids of this draft but where he ends up playing is going to be the question. Can play a role up forward, he's a lovely size but there are question marks on his work rate. Some of his best footy has come from the backline so he really does have that versitily. Defiantly could be one of those players that clubs may kick themselves over not taking if he does slide.

 

[pie machine]

So pick 6 it is . Straight swap for Lever or keep and hope brander or fogarty are still there at 6.

Any of the 3 would be great

 

[Bloben]

Was the first time all season I was going fur hawthorn last night. Means I can cheer for a win today without confliction with getting a worse pick and harder draw.

Unless we can get lever or lynch we should use the pick. I know Hine's philosophy is to go for best available early on but we may need to be more strategic this year as our midfield is already over stacked.

 

[soreplums]

Would picking up Lever send Howe to FF?

Big part of me prefers to go to the draft unless 6 is used on Lynch. I like the idea of trading up for two picks in the Teens, but unless we are close to being assured of getting who we want there, I'd rather go for the bigger talent.

 

[didaksrightfoot]

Unless we get a Lynch-like franchise player (and Lever is not on that level) then I would try to take it to the draft.

If we look at the value of our youngsters, I count 5 guys that you would consider as top 10 draft pick quality (Grundy, Treloar, Adams, JDG, Moore). (ie. if you saw their career trajectories would you be happy with that value from a top 10 pick - the first two guys top 3-5 quality)... after that there is a long drop off. Guys like Maynard, Crisp, Langdon, Shaz, Broomhead et al, all still have a long way to go to show they are anymore than fringe 16-25 kind of guys. They are useful, and you need then on a team, but all have a lot of room for improvement.

I actually think we have enough depth across most positions. (KPP's is the obvious exception). So it really is that young, top-end talent that we need to keep adding.
---

What we do with the pick comes down to where Hine et al rate the KPF's in this draft. (Given that good KPD's usually slip a bit further).
I haven't looked at the draft profiles yet - usually I leave that until the week or two before just because so much seems to change between now and then.

If we think there's 1-2 clear KPF standouts that would be gone by 6, and then a big gap to the next best, then we have a decision to make: do we just trade down to a couple of those picks mentioned above? Do we try to trade up to top 3-4 and use a want-away player to do it? (if there is anyone with that kind of value? Im not sure weve got anyone for that kind of trade). Do we do something like 6+Broomhead for Lever+Ade's 1st?

I would leave that up to the powers that be, but unless theres a really obvious alternative, I think just using Pick 6 and taking the best KPP available may be the best option.

 

[JB1975]

Not much diff between 6 & 20. Id be trading it to Tigers for their two picks in the teens.

If there isn't much difference between pick 6 and 20, then I'm not sure why Richmond would give up their two picks for our one...

 

[loki04]

Keep and use on the best available forward option unless Lynch is miraculously available. Personally I'm leaning towards either Stephenson or Fogarty because I think they would add the most to our future forward group, they have the potential to be gamebreakers and are the most ready to go.

I'm dead against trading down for later picks because we need a star at either end and I doubt we'll find that with mid to late first rounders. The only realistic outcome that im more scared of is trading it out for a 2018 first. I'd even enquire about trading out our 2018 first for another 2017 first because of how overrated that draft pool is currently. Too many people are ignoring the benefits of a year in the system and the downside of a year too long in the underage system.

How is it any different to the players being drafted this year? Those standing out from the crowd are next years crop and they still are 12 months less developed its not a year too long as their draft year is next year. A year too long is going as a 19 yo.

It's not being overrated there is some genuine stars coming through, it would be like saying in the year 2000 to load up in that year as the 01 draft was being over rated (we all know how that draft crop turned out) and trade out of the 01 draft, it would be the biggest recruiting blunder in years. Especially given the uncertainty around where we will likely finish.

Imagine if we keep Bucks and the media are into us like this year and the wheels fall off even further...only trade future firsts if you are getting the deal of the century. 100% against trading out of that draft.

 

[Pedro]

If there isn't much difference between pick 6 and 20, then I'm not sure why Richmond would give up their two picks for our one...

Fair point. I'd rather keep the pick myself. Who knows what you end up with in the mid/late teens. Could work well but could also end up with another Danny Stanley/Ryan Cook, or Ben Kennedy/Tim Broomhead combo. Arguments for both but I think its more likely to get a decent player with the better pick.

 

[Finnishpie]

Fair point. I'd rather keep the pick myself. Who knows what you end up with in the mid/late teens. Could work well but could also end up with another Danny Stanley/Ryan Cook, or Ben Kennedy/Tim Broomhead combo. Arguments for both but I think its more likely to get a decent player with the better pick.

What every happened to Ben Kennedy?

 

[Soups]

What every happened to Ben Kennedy?

Started hanging around Oxley.

 

[Good_Old]

I think we should draft a small midfielder with questionable skills.

 

[shizzle]

Keep it for mine unless we can use it as part of a deal to get a gun KPF. No to Lever.

 

[Tazzaye]

Definitely keep, need better young talent in the squad, half of our current list aint going to make it long term

 

[obleex]

Pick 6 is cursed