Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[OddYears]

My concern with Atkins is is complete drop off in form in the last three weeks, its about 60% lower than his expected by position and a 66% drop off compared to himself. Selwood is in a similar boat with a drop off of 43% in both. Atkins' mid season purple patch seems a long way away, he could be vulnerable right now as there isn't much space for him to go down back either.

Name​	Form relative to position​	Form relative to Self​	Gametime​
Cameron Guthrie​	60.1​	47.6​	171​
Brandan Parfitt​	51.5​	57.2​	209​
Patrick Dangerfield​	-8.9​	-16.4​	150​
Joel Selwood​	-43​	-42.6​	135​
Tom Atkins​	-59.4​	-67.4​	192​

Z.Guthrie is in form right now, would be wasted as a sub

Name​	Form relative to position​	Form relative to Self​	Gametime​
Tom Stewart​	33.3​	-22.1​	260​
Zach Guthrie​	26.1​	40.2​	254​
Zach Tuohy​	24.2​	2.6​	258​
Jed Bews​	-39.3​	-11​	247​
Mark O'Connor​	-49.7​	-11.7​	217​

Miers has been in great form in the 2nd half of the year, his early season form was atrocious, It made me biased against him but I just have to get over it.

Name​	Form relative to position​	Form relative to Self​	Gametime​
Gryan Miers​	60.5​	62.8​	247​
Tyson Stengle​	25.5​	-11.7​	263​
Isaac Smith​	18.6​	0.9​	167​
Brad Close​	9.3​	4​	258​
Gary Rohan​	-8.6​	-3.1​	159​

That's without considering how to fit in Menegola, Duncan, Henry forward or back which flows to Kolodjashnij( pre-concussion was up +30%/+30%) and Rohan.

I'm glad I'm not the match committee,

No need to worry about Atkins. His slight form drop coincided with parf returning and them sharing the load. Atkins has basically been in rest mode the last few weeks. Hopefully max rooke can have a word to him before the first final and he will unveil his final form.

 

[Hinkley29]

Not sure that’s right about Kolo having no opponent. With Mihocek (192cm) and Johnson (193cm) they seem ideal matchups. Henry will get the one Kolo doesn’t. De Koning on Cox.

It’s shaping to me that Zuthrie will be the stiffest player omitted in a very long time.

Zuthrie, Stewart are better matchups for Johnson than Kolo. They can both match him defensively and will hurt him going the other way. Stewart could have a field day if he is playing on Johnson.

 

[catempire]

Zuthrie, Stewart are better matchups for Johnson than Kolo. They can both match him defensively and will hurt him going the other way. Stewart could have a field day if he is playing on Johnson.

Henry

 

[OddYears]

Expecting this to be very close. Confident we’re the better side but Collingwood are riding a wave at the moment and that can’t be underestimated.

The unpredictable nature of their forward entries is what worries me most. They don’t have a singular target as such which makes it much harder for our backs to zone off. Their ball movement is fast and aggressive too so there will be plenty of 1 on 1 opportunities. This is an area where I think we can be a little susceptible at times.

Geelong by 7 points in a high scoring shootout.


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I can’t see the pies kicking a high score. They don’t have the firepower. They’ve kicked over 100 only once this season against the suns and have an average points for of 83. The only way they kick away is if their smalls get off the chain and we’ll be ready. The swans game really showed they have no goal kickers once those little guys are under control.

 

[Hinkley29]

Henry

Henry gets Mihochek. He is the more dangerous forward and requires a more physical defender. Henry has the tank to go with Mihochek and can match him in the air.

 

[Hinkley29]

On second thoughts, maybe kolo is the match up for Elliot……hmmmm

Elliot needs a true lock down defender. It is either Bews or Kolo

 

[witsend]

Have to stop the Pies slingshot rebound from D50. So many of their goals come from there.


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[Hinkley29]

Collingwood have got “just happy to be here” vibes about them.

They will get beaten comfortably by Geelong, will rebound and take care of freo and then will run out of gas and get belted in the prelim.

 

[Vdubs]

1/ what a stupid time of day to play it.

2/ you’ve got to respect what Collingwood have done over 3 months.

3/ I actually think we play similar styles but we are just a lot better.

4/ talk of big wins are silly. 20-35 points for me.

5/ no resting. None. We pay Cameron $1 mil. If he breaks down he breaks down. Geez, he ripped them a new butthole last time.

All chips in time.

re:-
1/ Given the GF could be played at that time, not really. And it's a great time for Geelong and Western districts families to come to the G.
2/ Definitely. Loved watching their never say die attitude.

 

[witsend]

I have no alternative solution, but it’s hard to see Zuthrie missing when he’s played EVERY game he’s been available for. Defence wins finals. He is a reliable important cog in our defensive wheel.
Dammit…this is hard!!!


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[Vdubs]

Collingwood have got “just happy to be here” vibes about them.

They will get beaten comfortably by Geelong, will rebound and take care of freo and then will run out of gas and get belted in the prelim.

I have strong memories of them scoring 9 goals against us in a quarter, before their strea!
They are very capable of winning the whole thing. They have the edge over Melbourne.
Whether we can do our thing and beat them remains to be seen, but they definitely are respected by me.

 

[witsend]

BTW no concerns about Cox sinking the knee in at the centre bounce yesterday?

I’m amazed that was t looked at! Dog act!!


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[BORIS332]

A lot of chat about stopping the Pies, the question should be how do they stop us?

 

[GeelongFTW]

On second thoughts, maybe kolo is the match up for Elliot……hmmmm

Elliot needs a true lock down defender. It is either Bews or Kolo

elliot is too smart and quick for kolo. Has to be Bews.

 

[witsend]

I have strong memories of them scoring 9 goals against us in a quarter, before their strea!
They are very capable of winning the whole thing. They have the edge over Melbourne.
Whether we can do our thing and beat them remains to be seen, but they definitely are respected by me.

2 points on that. We were lucky it was Q3 and we could adjust and run over them in Q4.
Also, it gives us a good look at how they get that run on. I’m sure there are some structural strategies we can (and did) employ but I feel a lot has to do with an emotive team with a feral crowd behind them. We MUST lock them down for a few minutes if they ever kick 2 in a row.


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[UnitedWarrior93]

Whats with people bitching about the Sat twilight timeslot because it clashes with community footy? It's unfortunate but getting as many Geelong fans to the G should be priority 1.

I’m having a good laugh at collingwood fans having a sook about it.

 

[Hinkley29]

elliot is too smart and quick for kolo. Has to be Bews.

I disagree.

Elliot is the one player from Collingwood who needs a defender that is purely focussed on defending. That is kolo or bews

 

[David the Cat]

I've got Henry to Elliot...Kolo to Miochek..Bews to Ginnovin...SDK to Cox/Cameron...Stewart and Zuth/Mitch/Tuohy to run riot off half back...

Thats my back 8...inclusive of rotations..the last 3 very dangerous and very versatile.

 

[witsend]

Expecting this to be very close. Confident we’re the better side but Collingwood are riding a wave at the moment and that can’t be underestimated.

The unpredictable nature of their forward entries is what worries me most. They don’t have a singular target as such which makes it much harder for our backs to zone off. Their ball movement is fast and aggressive too so there will be plenty of 1 on 1 opportunities. This is an area where I think we can be a little susceptible at times.

Geelong by 7 points in a high scoring shootout.


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My feeling is we will win by a few goals or not at all. If it’s a close game at all in Q4, 2022 history tells us Magpies win. We HAVE to start well, establish a comfortable lead and keep them at arms length in the second half.


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[catempire]

I've got Henry to Elliot...Kolo to Miochek..Bews to Ginnovin...SDK to Cox/Cameron...Stewart and Zuth/Mitch/Tuohy to run riot off half back...

Thats my back 8...inclusive of rotations..the last 3 very dangerous and very versatile.

Who’s the mid you’re dropping to play 8 backs?

 

[catempire]

I have strong memories of them scoring 9 goals against us in a quarter, before their strea!
They are very capable of winning the whole thing. They have the edge over Melbourne.
Whether we can do our thing and beat them remains to be seen, but they definitely are respected by me.

This is one of those moments where you’re overrating the opposition mate.

 

[crocsta]

In: Stanley, Duncan, Cameron

Out: Ceglar, Rohan, Sav

Stiff: Menegola (sub?)

We can cover loss of Rohan forward with 2E, Henry, Danger, or a resting Stanley. We all know what Rohan goes missing in finals!

Prefer we keep both Kolo and Zuthrie.


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[00VicWard001]

Geelong won't be drawn into mind games.

Our coaches and players are zoned in now.

 

[Vdubs]

This is one of those moments where you’re overrating the opposition mate.

I have rated the Pies since we played them, and they have done nothing since then to dilute that respect for them.

 

[Tony Barber]

re:-
1/ Given the GF could be played at that time, not really. And it's a great time for Geelong and Western districts families to come to the G.
2/ Definitely. Loved watching their never say die attitude.

I actually don’t care about the ppl going.
Are you telling me those ppl can’t get to a 2:30pm game?

For me, I bet I start prepping dinner at start time.
Probably be eating as it finishes. But that’s just me.

Should be played in bright sunshine at 2:30.
It’s a QF for christs sake.

This isn’t north v suns.

Rant over.