AFL Autopsy R20: Smashed by the Saints, and the season is cooked.

[Squeaky]

Keep Scott, change 10 to 12 blokes, get super aggressive. Even if it means we win 12 games over the next 2 seasons.

This would be a start.
And at least it is something we have not done.
Doing the same is delivering the same!

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

People will meltdown over this round and last round. Another late season collapse. Are we not fit enough. Did we start getting over-confident. Folks, all season, this team has clearly not been much better than the established bottom 6 teams. Rounds 11 and 12 were enough to know this wasn't a serious team. You had no excuse other than being delusional if you thought otherwise. We were lucky to beat these teams when we played them earlier in the season. These loses are, in the end, probably good things because now we can't be delusional. We've still got a long way to go and as far as I know, the club itself doesn't think much different. But winning games can sometimes lead to you drinking your own bathwater. We've got no reason to do that now, and that's good. I'm not smart enough to pinpoint the exact problems and the exact solutions beyond "we need better players because we're not a good team" and that's as true today as it was 4 weeks ago when we were third on the ladder.

For most of the season, there's been a clear bottom 6 teams. That has been slightly shaken up recently, but I don't think that's disrespectful to those other teams, which are the Hawks, Crows, Saints, Eagles, North and Richmond. So how did we perform against them?

R2, we only won against the Hawks due to an insanely good goal-kicking performance, and a bad one from them

R4, we won against the Saints by 4 points. Close games are coin tosses. It's been proven in nearly every sport, and the AFL is no different. A team's performance in close games is, essentially, not a predictable feature going forward. A team can win a bunch of close games one season, and the very next season lose them all. This was also a game that at 3/4 time, we had kicked 8.5 to the Saints 8.12. We were clearly the better team in the last quarter of that game, but we were lucky to still be within 10 points by that point of the game.

R7, we won against the Crows by 3 points. This was of course the game where Sam Draper was not pinged for something that he should have been and allowed us to win it. So the obvious example of how close games are coin tosses. We got the lucky call. Now, we should not have allowed the game to be close, we had kicked 8.14 to 3/4 time but in the end this is another game against a bottom 6 team that we were lucky to win

R9 against West Coast, we won by 6 points. I have spoken enough about this. This was a disgraceful game that plenty of people refused to admit was a terrible performance because we won.

R11 against North, we won by 40 points, but got outscored in two quarters by a winless team. This was basically an one quarter performance. Again, I still some people try to defend this by saying well North have been better since that point. They have won two games for the season.

R12 against Richmond, we won by 12 points against a team that had lost 8 straight or whatever to that point. The gap was one point with a couple mins to go in the 3rd quarter and 5 points with about 10 mins to go.

R16 against West Coast, we won by 30 points, albeit with Q4 junk time goals. The Eagles were within 10 to 20 points from about the middle of the 3rd quarter to the middle of the last quarter, before we finally broke through. This was after we were up by 23 at HF only for them to close the gap to as little as four points during the third quarter.

R20 and R21 against the Crows and Saints. Well we lost.

If you spend all season just barely beating bottom 6 teams, and then you start losing to them too, that's probably a good sign that the team isn't much better than those teams.

We've been through this ride for the last 15 years. Sack a coach, make the finals in that coach's first or second season, get pumped in that final, get over-confident and think the team will do even better the next season and when that doesn't happen, sack the coach and do it all over again. As far as I'm concerned, thank god we're not wasting our time in the finals again and we can confront what's been obvious all season

All true enough, and if we lost tonight by the odd goal or 2 to one of those other bottom sides then I dare say most here would accept it philosophically and start looking to see how we might improve through this year's draft/trade period.But we were worse than that, much, much worse to the point of being barely competitive. That's what produces "melts", the despair that there is a much deeper malaise throughout a playing group which no mid range draft picks or exchange of 2nd rank trades is going to alter.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

We are crying out for Hobbs, Tsatas, Caddy all to come good.

Caddy has shown a few bits but way too early

Others look like they are our typical top end draft picks with the Essington stamp.

Praying to all the God's

 

[Mootsy]

Bring Woosha back

 

[Milanista28]

This would be a start.
And at least it is something we have not done.
Doing the same is delivering the same!

Yeah it's time, I'd even make it clear to the senior brigade, we might take a couple steps back due to the path we want to take, and if some want out we'll listen to offers.

Draper is the 1st bloke I'd put up for trade, I'd take a 2nd round pick for him, an unpredictable ruckman does nothing for us, we need a vanilla contest to contest ruckman.

 

[YEMOC NAYR]

Years of poor drafting and development coming to bite. We are not a young team.

We've totally ****ed with Perkins. Horribly out of confidence, should of been playing full VFL games about 5 weeks ago. Instead we've learned nothing with the weidman situation last year and kept playing a player horribly out of form and getting nothing from him. The sub call is extremely perplexing.

We continually go tall. B.Scott has an obsession with it. Even against all weather conditions hes proven he has a certain structure he prefers.

Heppell is well past it and if thinks hes still good enough to play on he needs a serious reality check. The only way i'd play him from here on out is a retirement game. The fact he gets refers as the heart and soul of this team is very fitting considering his performance. Least accountable role in football, moved out of the midfield cos he was a liability and now hes a defensive liability.

Plenty more I could go on but I'd rather take a few more days to digest.

 

[Bjchan13]

Worst thing that could have happened.
I can understand that the supporters might get carried away. But I cannot understand how the coach and match committee can allow players to 'buy themselves more time'.
If true, That has been a failure of the new committee.

I think if you're winning and in the top 4 you need to give the players that got you to that position the opportunity to either keep winning or face reality. Unfortunately the reality was that we are still nowhere near it. There are now 4 games to go for the year so it we will see how Brad plays it

 

[Squeaky]

I understand you've made it clear you believe he isn't having any say any more and I trust your words, but the optics of one of the main guys being responsible for this list still being a part of the club is just so bloody poor and shows weakness at the core of the organisation.

If the suggestions are true that Dodo's relationships with coiteries keep him around, then we are never getting out of this mess are we?

Let the coteries and Dodo have it. But let us all know so we can save time, money and health with this continuous shit show. campaigners!

 

[windyhill]

I’ve heard of list cloggers, got plenty of them. How about ladder cloggers ?

 

[Yoda_]

View attachment 2060785

this is what ive echoed for a few weeks when the wiring was on the wall for EFC

Hawthorn were on the way down and they said to Mitchell and Hodge, thanks but you wanna keep playing? go elsewhere.. meanwhile, we re sign fringe 22 players and cant walk out or make tough decisions

 

[CBombers17]

The effort seems to have dropped off which is concerning. I can't remember us finishing a season well for a very long time either. Surely that's mental and not conditioning?

 

[MiguelM]

We'll bounce back

They were playing witches hats.

 

[ant555]

Yet he is entrusting the future of the club to these same idiots who have been losers their entire careers.

Play the inexperienced kids, turf out your average players when you can.
Instead we keep handing out contracts and spots in the seniors on weekends.

If it's gonna take 10 years, do it properly.

I have done this a few times .

Tsatas - they where keen to play him early despite him not being physically developed enough for midfield so he got some games on a wing but his kicking is not good enough . He is not physically developed enough to play inside midfield and he still has some work to do on his defense but basically he is not physically ready to play the position he can play.

Hobbs . In the side until he got injured . Did not do a lot of running early in his rehab and did need the 3 VFL games. There was a good argument to play him this week.

Hayes . You could argue he should have got a look in by now . Is still developing physically.

Bryan . Another who could have played a few more games but is as physical around the ground as Peter Wright . Tom Hird ran him off the line of the ball in a marking contest when we played Port Melb.

Baldwin injured.

Caddy getting some games.

Reid lasted 1/2 a game.

A Davey . Another who has got some games but is also not physically ready for week i and week out AFL footy. Should get a couple more games to finish off the season.

Lual . 100% not ready physically or performance wise.

J Davey . Has improved as the season has gone on but his effort has not always been where it needs to be and his pressure has been in the range of okay to totally non existent . Will be interested in tomorrow as his last game was somewhere near where it needed to be.

Roberts . Should have played by now but is not a player ready to be a week in and week out selection. Has had some issues with defensive transition.

Visentini - Simply not ready.

Wanganeen - missed most of pre season again.

hunter injured.

There really are only three guys who could have got more of a look in . Hayes . Bryan . Roberts. Of these 3 Hayes and Roberts would not be able to sustain the physical efforts needed for multiple games in a row.
So yes he could have played some young bloke. Yes he should before the season ends but it is not like there have been 6 or 7 players banging the door down and not getting a look in.
Some selections have been crap but there has been limited pressure from underneath .
Should have played Hobbs before Parish this week.

 

[ant555]

The effort seems to have dropped off which is concerning. I can't remember us finishing a season well for a very long time either. Surely that's mental and not conditioning?

Every season has a killer moment . Last year looking back it was the Collingwood game we threw away. From then onwards the confidence was gone.
Some have said it was the Geelong game this year but I think it was last week that has broken them. After Geelong the effort was there . Win the Pies game . Effort against Melbourne but the wrong side for the wet. Last week throw away a win in the last 5 minutes due to panicky play . This week just gave in.

 

[WABomber]

I dont agree with the calls for our list being that bad. We are not that bad a team but for some unknown reason Scott is determined to treat this year as purely a development year. The tall wings, the constant positional changes, the lack of any defensive accountability at clearances and centre bounces. The bizarre selection of overly tall teams when he plays a press that needs speed for the overlap. I have never seen so many players lose form in the stretch of one season.

 

[BomberManU]

If we can't get up then we should aim to at least finish the season on a better note. If we can then I will consider it an improvement on last year.

And if we don't, then there's been no improvement?

 

[Squeaky]

Yeah it's time, I'd even make it clear to the senior brigade, we might take a couple steps back due to the path we want to take, and if some want out we'll listen to offers.

Draper is the 1st bloke I'd put up for trade, I'd take a 2nd round pick for him, an unpredictable ruckman does nothing for us, we need a vanilla contest to contest ruckman.

Yep. Just a dependable beast. Briggs/Meek type. I saw someone comment the other day that Draper winning that goal of the year thing a while ago was the worst thing that could have happened. And I agree.

 

[Happyskeret]

They were playing witches hats.

Yep and at the other end as soon as it became a disputed ball they immediately ran it out of our forward line.

 

[Bombermania]

The thing that pissed me off today was how many times Saints players found the ball in space and besides Merritt, Durham and Caldwell, the lack of effort and lack of communication was worrying. The Saints were playing knowing Ross is going to give them hell during the preseason but too many Essendon players just seem content.

 

[ydc55]

We were gone when merrett and McGrath were arguing. What a poor example of leadership.
Let’s look at the positives- Durham, Caldwell, caddy, duursma and McKay have been upgrades on last year.
The negatives are cox, perkins, Reid, Hobbs, tsatas, Davey, bryan and Hayes have not come on.
I would also argue that our coaches have let us down.
cox and jones cannot play wing in modern football. They are too slow particularly with transition running.
They have also not been able to formulate a functional offence.
It is time to recognise Heppell, laverde, Menzies, shiel are not good enough.
Goldstein, weideman, wanganeen will fall off our list along with Heppell. Shiel and Stringer will be interesting watches.
Our list management team have been awful.
Parish’s contract looks like an albatross as does mcgraths and wrights.
Could they do a treloar/ Grundy and trade parish?
The Daniher non trade really hurt us.
Not retaining d’ambrossio looks like a massive mistake.
Tsatsas looks like the wrong choice.
Symbolically Adrian dodoro needs to be unequivocally removed.
I also believe some of our good players play soft roles.
Martin is playing as an unaccountable half back.
Redman similar.
Ridley plays as an interceptor rather than a pure defender.
I think it is time to get creative this off-season.
Redman on a wing?
Martin in the forward half?
Ridley in the forward half?

This draft it looks like we will have another top ten pick and hopefully rights to Isaac Kako.
That is not a bad little haul.
Second round could secure something as well.
I think we nailed the caddy pick and need to do so again.

In 1992 our team looked lost, old and stale.
We brought in speed and kids and become exciting and pinched a flag.
I am not saying we can win a flag but can we at least play a fast and hard brand of footy?

I for one think Brad Scott needs to now take control along with Matt Rosa and start afresh and well and truly build a team and game style that can be exciting and last a whole season.

Possible 2025 side

Mcgrath. McKay kelly
Perkins Reid (can he get fit) redman
Roberts Caldwell duursma
Martin ridley merrett
Kako jones caddy
Bryan Durham hobbs
Tsatsas Draper Gresham tsatsas berry (would love him at the bombers!)

 

[wichidi]

Don't agree it's that simple. Season's been tighter than any in memory and Collingwood had a shit % all through 2022. It isn't an excuse. Yes I know we aren't the Pies pre-flag, the point is it isn't always a clear indicator nor should it be a barrier now or any time in the future.

The real simplicity of it is we weren't expected to be where we are and people's forthcoming unrealistic expectations as a result of that have bled it's way into the overall analysis of the team.

It's our fault as a supporter base for not being grounded (literally had people talking about Top 4 a few weeks ago, I was dumbfounded).

We as supporters need to be more self-aware about the road ahead, note the little wins and give it time.

I agree with you. And unfortunately we are in the minority on this board.

 

[jmoo wan]

every single part of the ground is a problem. Our on ballers are timid and scared of body contact, or getting a free kick paid against them for tackling, so they just wait for the opposition to get the ball and then try to act ferocious hoping they'll drop it or something, but usually they just fall over or get shoved away. Our backpeople are woefully weak and are pushed aside too easily or they just fall over or get shoved away. Our forwards think they are the bigs kids in grade 6 still, and just want the ball kicked high so they can play marks up - they refuse to lead, so all our forward entries are kicked up high and slow to a pack. So when the ball comes in high and slow it gets punched away by the opposition, or if by chance our player gets it they just fall over or get shoved away.

 

[MiguelM]

Every season has a killer moment . Last year looking back it was the Collingwood game we threw away. From then onwards the confidence was gone.
Some have said it was the Geelong game this year but I think it was last week that has broken them. After Geelong the effort was there . Win the Pies game . Effort against Melbourne but the wrong side for the wet. Last week throw away a win in the last 5 minutes due to panicky play . This week just gave in.

We drop our heads. Mentally weak.

Forget USA in the off season, send them off to SAS training with 30kg packs and limited water. Soft as butter.

 

[Bombermania]

every single part of the ground is a problem. Our on ballers are timid and scared of body contact, or getting a free kick paid against them for tackling, so they just wait for the opposition to get the ball and then try to act ferocious hoping they'll drop it or something, but usually they just fall over or get shoved away. Our backpeople are woefully weak and are pushed aside too easily or they just fall over or get shoved away. Our forwards think they are the bigs kids in grade 6 still, and just want the ball kicked high so they can play marks up - they refuse to lead, so all our forward entries are kicked up high and slow to a pack. So when the ball comes in high and slow it gets punched away by the opposition, or if by chance our player gets it they just fall over or get shoved away.

The second quarter was close to bruise free footy and was behind Merritt when he was running forward so could see what he was looking at, and not one Essendon player was screaming for it.

 

[ant555]

We drop our heads. Mentally weak.

Forget USA in the off season, send them off to SAS training with 30kg packs and limited water. Soft as butter.

I still think total lack of leadership depth is a factor. Look at McGrath and Redman . Two leaders that have fallen off a cliff and are making as many bone head dumb decisions as Heppell or Kelly . Who is after that ? Durham is young . Parish has enough on his plate keeping his head around what he needs to do defensively . Langford ? form has gone to the dogs. Caldwell stepping up. It is pretty thin.