Preview R8: Changes v Geelong

[BunjiMac]

To be an elite premiership football side you have to be constantly ahead of the game.

We need to be consistently evaluating our side and determining how we are going to be better, not just for next week, but for next month and next year.

Milera is the future. McKay is not, pretty simple.

The quicker we get games into milera the greater the pay off. McKay should be measured against the potential benefit of playing milera. If we genuinely believe we can get the same payoff by playing McKay then I'm not against him playing. I highly doubt this will be the case though

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Incorrect on both counts. So far in 2016...
Mackay has averaged 2.0 clearances per game. Milera averages 0.5, Cameron 0.33, Betts 0.86.
Mackay averages 4.86 tackles per game. Cameron is better, at 6.0. Betts is worse, at 3.71. Milera barely lays any tackles at all, averaging just 1.25 per game.

He's actually done pretty damn well in the centre clearances, all things considered. They might be a bit surprised to see him there, assuming him to be a purely outside player (as do many posters on the Adelaide board). They'd soon realise that it's no joke - he's arguably better on the inside than he is on the outside.

Not sure that Cameron or Milera could be described as "stronger in the contest".

CEY is probably the best like-for-like replacement, given the role that Mackay was playing. Still, if CEY is the answer then you're asking the wrong question.

Oh dear, where to start?!

- Clearance stats are useless because I'm saying they would be better in Mackay's position based on attributes but they haven't been given those opportunities in the positions Mackay has.
- Better on the inside rather the outside…haha, that's not a high benchmark, he's poor at both.
- Have you watched Charlie Cameron hit a contest?! He's harder than 90% of our team and easily accounts for Mackay. Milera probably only just shades Mackay…as an 18yo mind you.
- CEY head-to-head v Mackay would pulverise him.

 

[Tex200]

Have you looked at the "Dangerfield factor" graphs, which have been posted here?

Thommo, Sloane, Douglas, Crouch x2, are not stepping up to the mark and replacing what we lost in Dangerfield. Our clearances have gone from being a significant strength to a critical weakness. The opposition are winning the ball in the centre far too often and far too easily, giving them an easy entry into their F50. Removing an in/out player, and replacing him with a purely outside player, exacerbates a problem that is already serious.

Not that I disagree it's an issue, but when looking at those Danger graphs you must take into account we have played the #1 and 2 contested ball sides where Geelong have played the #17 and 18 ranked sides. Very skewed results presently

 

[Vader]

Oh dear, where to start?!

- Clearance stats are useless because I'm saying they would be better in Mackay's position based on attributes but they haven't been given those opportunities in the positions Mackay has.
- Better on the inside rather the outside…haha, that's not a high benchmark, he's poor at both.
- Have you watched Charlie Cameron hit a contest?! He's harder than 90% of our team and easily accounts for Mackay. Milera probably only just shades Mackay…as an 18yo mind you.
- CEY head-to-head v Mackay would pulverise him.

You might want to start watching the footy with your eyes open for a change. This is mostly all rubbish, based on preconceptions, based on past Mackay performances. The reality is that he's been much, much better in 2016. To the extent that he's been named in our best players on several occasions.

Mackay in 2015 was complete rubbish, and your comments would be entirely valid if that was the baseline. But it's not. This is 2016 and Mackay has been playing very well. Not just "very well for Mackay", but very well by normal AFL standards.

 

[RodnyDangrfield]

Would love Pyke to back Cameron in the centre square for a few bounces in this game, he single handedly turned the Sanfl game against WWT when he went into the guts, and is a much better kick when the option are infront of him. Not to mention the pressure he applies. Cmon Donny P.....make my day!

 

[Scorpus]

You might want to start watching the footy with your eyes open for a change. This is mostly all rubbish, based on preconceptions, based on past Mackay performances. The reality is that he's been much, much better in 2016. To the extent that he's been named in our best players on several occasions.

Mackay in 2015 was complete rubbish, and your comments would be entirely valid if that was the baseline. But it's not. This is 2016 and Mackay has been playing very well. Not just "very well for Mackay", but very well by normal AFL standards.

Mackay has been average for AFL standards. His performances are what I'd expect from a fringe player

 

[1970crow]

I think that bringing Milera in makes us too "outside", reducing what is already a below average clearance unit to being outright pitiful. I like what Milera brings to the table and it's not about him as a player. It's about the team balance. Mackay was playing an inside/outside role for us, winning a number of clearances for us this year. I don't see Milera (or Cameron) as being able to play that role. Even with Mackay's (relatively meagre) contributions, our clearances this year have been well down on what we were achieving last year. With Mackay gone, replaced by an outside mid, what was a bad situation will become even worse.

Like you said, "if we can win more clearances"... that's just not going to happen with Milera as Mackay's replacement.

You don't watch Mackay very closely do you. His role wasn't to get clearances, otherwise they wouldn't have deployed him at so many stoppages where he averages only 2 per game. He was mostly set on the outside of the stoppage area on the defensive side so he could provide pressure to an opponent if they cleared the contested area on foot. Oddly, in last weeks game in the second and third quarters he was positioned a similar distance from the contest area but on the attacking side. Which is odd because we were getting smoked in that area, so I presume his defensive role would have been to apply pressure from behind the opponent. Anyway, Milera only averages 1.5 clearances less per game and is at nowhere near the number of stoppages that Mackay is at and he also only averages 1 less contested possession. That area of our game is arguably improved by having Milera replace Mackay, but you go on believing that Mackay's output is only able to be matched by Mackay himself.

 

[1970crow]

You can access them, in order, on the Footywire website.

Here are Mackay's TOG figures for 2016:
R1: 68% (21st)
R2: 72% (19th)
R3: 75% (18th)
R4: 75% (17th)
R5: 79% (15th)
R6: 83% (11th)
R7: 57% (22nd) ** Injured

Consistently in the bottom 50%, but his TOG has been consistently increasing. My guess - this is due to the coaching staff begin to trust him more due to his consistently good performance levels when on the field.

Oddly running at 70% up until his injury last Saturday. So perhaps the landscape had changed, either as a directive of the coaching group or Mackay thought he'd done enough to cruise through the rest of the year. Or there was a bit of tightness that was restricting him but they thought not enough to stop him altogether. Obviously, I'm on record as suggesting that it would only be a matter of time before Mackay's effort reverted to the norm, but I'm not suggesting that it is the most likely of the reasons why he was heading towards 70% TOG.

 

[cmndstab]

I agree that, if Milera is brought in to play Mackay's role, we're a bit weaker on the inside. Mackay, for all his flaws, has done a somewhat acceptable job on the inside this year. That's not Milera's game at all.

Presumably we are intending to shuffle things around a bit with the other 21 players in the team to get an extra inside player and have Milera play a different role. And on that front I think we're stronger as a result.

 

[1970crow]

Because having all 3 of them in the same team makes us too "outside", with insufficient ability to win the inside ball. Outside players are great, but they're useless if we can't win the ball in the first place.

This is almost the reverse of the Thompson/M Crouch/Lyons situation last year, where we were overloaded with slow inside mids - and didn't have enough quick players on the outside to distribute the ball once it had been won.

Seriously Vader, you do realise that despite Mackay moving 'inside' this year he averages 5.6 contested possessions and 2 clearances per game. Milera's average is 5.0 and 0.5 despite not attending anywhere near a similar amount of stoppages. Just because someone is being deployed to do a role, doesn't automatically mean that they are good at it. Remember Brent Reilly's defensive issues that caused him to be dropped?? Provided he's fit and if he was to play that role, Milera improves us at the contest.

I'm amazed after all these years of saying that Mackay was used poorly because he's an outside player, he plays a few games where he barely touches it at a stoppage and he magically becomes an irreplaceable stoppage beast. Just dumb.

 

[1970crow]

I agree that, if Milera is brought in to play Mackay's role, we're a bit weaker on the inside. Mackay, for all his flaws, has done a somewhat acceptable job on the inside this year. That's not Milera's game at all.

Presumably we are intending to shuffle things around a bit with the other 21 players in the team to get an extra inside player and have Milera play a different role. And on that front I think we're stronger as a result.

How would you explain that Milera averages 0.6 contested possessions less than Mackay when we know that Mackay is at many more stoppages? I'd suggest that Milera's inside game is quite good considering he's doesn't have anywhere near the opportunity to beef those numbers up as they guys being deployed to the coalface.

 

[Bicks]

Have you looked at the "Dangerfield factor" graphs, which have been posted here?

Thommo, Sloane, Douglas, Crouch x2, are not stepping up to the mark and replacing what we lost in Dangerfield. Our clearances have gone from being a significant strength to a critical weakness. The opposition are winning the ball in the centre far too often and far too easily, giving them an easy entry into their F50. Removing an in/out player, and replacing him with a purely outside player, exacerbates a problem that is already serious.

Strange.... no mention of Jacobs, thought he actually had some input into the clearance numbers??

You can't have noticed he has been a fair way off his best performances of years bygone and certainly not the dominant force he has been in the past for us.

 

[Elite Crow]

Incorrect on both counts. So far in 2016...
Mackay has averaged 2.0 clearances per game. Milera averages 0.5, Cameron 0.33, Betts 0.86.
Mackay averages 4.86 tackles per game. Cameron is better, at 6.0. Betts is worse, at 3.71. Milera barely lays any tackles at all, averaging just 1.25 per game.

He's actually done pretty damn well in the centre clearances, all things considered. They might be a bit surprised to see him there, assuming him to be a purely outside player (as do many posters on the Adelaide board). They'd soon realise that it's no joke - he's arguably better on the inside than he is on the outside.

Not sure that Cameron or Milera could be described as "stronger in the contest".

CEY is probably the best like-for-like replacement, given the role that Mackay was playing. Still, if CEY is the answer then you're asking the wrong question.

Mackay has 2 clearances a game and you think he's doing well, what are you smoking?

And do you know how many of those are centre clearances? 0.2 average, he's had 3 centre clearances in total this year. That's diabolical.

 

[threefa9]

Believe Mackay is a bit of a flat track bully and his poor games are a symptom of us not moving the ball well. If we are playing him inside AT ALL then he isn't the right man for it.

 

[fabs33]

Presumably we are intending to shuffle things around a bit with the other 21 players in the team to get an extra inside player and have Milera play a different role. And on that front I think we're stronger as a result.

I think Vader has fallen into the trap of believing that Milera, as Mackay's replacement, will be expected to perform all the responsibilities Mackay had. It's a simplistic and unimaginative approach to viewing the situation.

Furthermore comparing player B's stats to player A's to determine whether B can perform A's role is going to get you into trouble because it overlooks the fact that the roles themselves have an influence on the stats a player gets.

 

[1970crow]

I think Vader has fallen into the trap of believing that Milera, as Mackay's replacement, will be expected to perform all the responsibilities Mackay had. It's a simplistic and unimaginative approach to viewing the situation.

Furthermore comparing player B's stats to player A's to determine whether B can perform A's role is going to get you into trouble because it overlooks the fact that the roles themselves have an influence on the stats a player gets.

Vader is very, very simplistic in his view of the game. Whatever a player is doing is a role and that role mus absolutely and without question remain in the exact same manner in terms of how that particular player performs it. When that player is injured or hopelessly out of form, the role remains and that player can only be replaced by a player with near identical physical and performance characteristics. He's not alone though, there are a few others who see the game and selection in this manner.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Have you looked at the "Dangerfield factor" graphs, which have been posted here?

Thommo, Sloane, Douglas, Crouch x2, are not stepping up to the mark and replacing what we lost in Dangerfield. Our clearances have gone from being a significant strength to a critical weakness. The opposition are winning the ball in the centre far too often and far too easily, giving them an easy entry into their F50. Removing an in/out player, and replacing him with a purely outside player, exacerbates a problem that is already serious.

So keep adding C grade clearance players and improve it on critical mass ?!!

Not the answer , we have the players to do it... Like they did v Sydney and we need them to lift

Can't afford to lose other parts of our game in meantime

 

[Elite Crow]

I agree that, if Milera is brought in to play Mackay's role, we're a bit weaker on the inside. Mackay, for all his flaws, has done a somewhat acceptable job on the inside this year. That's not Milera's game at all.

Presumably we are intending to shuffle things around a bit with the other 21 players in the team to get an extra inside player and have Milera play a different role. And on that front I think we're stronger as a result.

DMack is averaging 2 clearances a game and 5 contested possessions a game and wait for it has achieved a massive 3 centre clearances this year.

We are going to lose nothing by having Milera replace DMack because DMack has the body of a Milera.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Hopefully they are switched on to counter their opponents and not centre things around beating one player. By all means we have to negate them all. Blicavs worries me.

Yeah we need to defend well but the best way is to win the footy first in the middle and get it going our way , make them worry about us etc

At least the mids will have their competitive instincts pricked by facing up to Selwood danger and caddy in there

Similar to when we played swans - not many passengers in the oppo midfield tonight and hope that brings out the best in us too

Still not confident but hopeful

 

[1970crow]

DMack is averaging 2 clearances a game and 5 contested possessions a game and wait for it has achieved a massive 3 centre clearances this year.

We are going to lose nothing by having Milera replace DMack because DMack has the body of a Milera.

But, but only Dmac can play the Dmac role. I mean, it's named after him and all.

 

[Jack is Back]

Some misconceptions? There is only so much inside midfield time to share.

Firstly we have three inside midfielders at any time (plus the ruckman). This is mandated in the centre square but a key change in our game plan is to keep other players away from the "inside ring" for stoppages around the ground between the D50 and F50. Thus we have 3 X 100 minutes of inside midfielder time.

Our main mids average the following % time on ground; Thommo 86%, Matty Crouch 74%, Sloaney 79%, Brad Crouch 72%. Thommo and Matty Crouch play more than 90% of their TOG as an inside mid, Sloaney is around 80% and Brad Crouch is a bit less but that is probably due to his injuries. So they will take up around 250 of the 300 minutes. The rest of the minutes were initially taken up by Dougie who in the first 2 games played mainly forward plus an occasional spurt for BNM.

When Brad Crouch was absent in rounds 3-6 Dougie increased his time in the midfield, Jarryd Lyons spent around 25% of the match as an inside midfielder and BNM also increased his time on the inside. In the early matches we were rotating the Seed, the RAT and BNM through the wings but more recently BNM has reduced his time on the wing.

I certainly didn't expect Mackay to be replaced by an inside midfielder (e.g. CEY). I expect Brad Crouch to gradually increase his inside mid minutes, hopefully Thommo will reduce his a bit and Dougie will pick up what's remaining. During the preseason whenever Milera went onto the wing he looked fantastic. I really hope that we keep the same forward structure, rotate the Seed, the Rat and Wayne through the wings and leave it to Thommo, the Crouches, Sloaney and Dougie to do the tough work ion the inside.

 

[hey shorty]

You do realise it's 2016, not 2015?

Still doesn't change the fact that Milera is likely to offer just as much tonight as David would have.

 

[Vader]

Strange.... no mention of Jacobs, thought he actually had some input into the clearance numbers??

You can't have noticed he has been a fair way off his best performances of years bygone and certainly not the dominant force he has been in the past for us.

Jacobs is averaging 33.7 hitouts per game. This is actually his 3rd best year - 2015 was head and shoulders above anything he'd done previously (37.3); it's only marginally behind the 34.7 he averaged in 2014.

The big drop has been in his "hitouts to advantage". That stat is driven by the players at his feet, as much as it is by the ruckman himself. Jacobs isn't actually playing all that badly - it's just that the players he's tapping to aren't of the same calibre that they were previously.

 

[Vader]

So keep adding C grade clearance players and improve it on critical mass ?!!

Not the answer , we have the players to do it... Like they did v Sydney and we need them to lift

Can't afford to lose other parts of our game in meantime

The question is whether or not we're already below the critical mass, or whether losing Mackay (and replacing him with an outside player) takes us below the critical mass.

The fact that our clearance rates are so poor indicates that we're very close to the critical mass already. Even marginal losses at this point can have significant implications.

 

[earlsta]

The question is whether or not we're already below the critical mass, or whether losing Mackay (and replacing him with an outside player) takes us below the critical mass.

The fact that our clearance rates are so poor indicates that we're very close to the critical mass already. Even marginal losses at this point can have significant implications.

Geelong average 2 clearances a game more than we do.
I don't think our clearance rates are so low at all nor are we are in a critical mass regarding this area, it's more effective than last year that's for sure.
You only need to look at our efficiency inside our forward 50 to see that, 55% equal 1st in the comp.