Preview R8: Changes v Geelong

[Vader]

Geelong average 2 clearances a game more than we do.
I don't think our clearance rates are so low at all nor are we are in a critical mass regarding this area, it's more effective than last year that's for sure.
You only need to look at our efficiency inside our forward 50 to see that, 55% equal 1st in the comp.

Our efficiency inside our F50 has very little, if anything, to do with our effectiveness at centre clearances. It has everything to do with our quick and precise ball movement after we force a turnover in our back line.

As I have stated before.. We have high clearance numbers overall because our games have greater than average numbers of clearances. This is largely the result of our games being very high scoring (with both sides kicking cricket scores). More goals scored = more centre clearances. The percentage of clearances won by Adelaide has plummeted this year.

Our ability to win those clearances is critically low already. Losing Mackay makes it worse.

 

[Elite Crow]

Some misconceptions? There is only so much inside midfield time to share.

Firstly we have three inside midfielders at any time (plus the ruckman). This is mandated in the centre square but a key change in our game plan is to keep other players away from the "inside ring" for stoppages around the ground between the D50 and F50. Thus we have 3 X 100 minutes of inside midfielder time.

Our main mids average the following % time on ground; Thommo 86%, Matty Crouch 74%, Sloaney 79%, Brad Crouch 72%. Thommo and Matty Crouch play more than 90% of their TOG as an inside mid, Sloaney is around 80% and Brad Crouch is a bit less but that is probably due to his injuries. So they will take up around 250 of the 300 minutes. The rest of the minutes were initially taken up by Dougie who in the first 2 games played mainly forward plus an occasional spurt for BNM.

When Brad Crouch was absent in rounds 3-6 Dougie increased his time in the midfield, Jarryd Lyons spent around 25% of the match as an inside midfielder and BNM also increased his time on the inside. In the early matches we were rotating the Seed, the RAT and BNM through the wings but more recently BNM has reduced his time on the wing.

I certainly didn't expect Mackay to be replaced by an inside midfielder (e.g. CEY). I expect Brad Crouch to gradually increase his inside mid minutes, hopefully Thommo will reduce his a bit and Dougie will pick up what's remaining. During the preseason whenever Milera went onto the wing he looked fantastic. I really hope that we keep the same forward structure, rotate the Seed, the Rat and Wayne through the wings and leave it to Thommo, the Crouches, Sloaney and Dougie to do the tough work ion the inside.

Even counting for reduced midfield time compared to our preferred inside mids, Dmack has had 3 centre clearances for the whole year. So what exactly is the point of having him at the centre bounces?

We have been beaten in the clearances pretty much all year when its counted, perhaps Don needs to revisit his thinking by not brining in another inside mid.

We have plenty of outside players now but our inside work is suffering.

 

[Bicks]

Jacobs is averaging 33.7 hitouts per game. This is actually his 3rd best year - 2015 was head and shoulders above anything he'd done previously (37.3); it's only marginally behind the 34.7 he averaged in 2014.

The big drop has been in his "hitouts to advantage". That stat is driven by the players at his feet, as much as it is by the ruckman himself. Jacobs isn't actually playing all that badly - it's just that the players he's tapping to aren't of the same calibre that they were previously.

For all your "stats" the fact is the Crows Hit Out score to date is 2 in the positive count vs Opposition Rucks 5 from the 7 games we've played which means we have been beaten in the ruck contests in 70+% of the games we've played and I'd hardly call the Rucks the Powa, Tigers or Bulldogs put out there anywhere near decent...

And that's without factoring in your Hit Outs to advantage......It's not only our mids that need to lift, our Rucks do too.

 

[Elite Crow]

Our efficiency inside our F50 has very little, if anything, to do with our effectiveness at centre clearances. It has everything to do with our quick and precise ball movement after we force a turnover in our back line.

As I have stated before.. We have high clearance numbers overall because our games have greater than average numbers of clearances. This is largely the result of our games being very high scoring (with both sides kicking cricket scores). More goals scored = more centre clearances. The percentage of clearances won by Adelaide has plummeted this year.

Our ability to win those clearances is critically low already. Losing Mackay makes it worse.

Look I have pointed this out to you already but when you don't like what you read you ignore it, but Mackay has had 3 centre clearances for the year. I repeat 3.

Losing Mackay does not make it worse.

 

[Vader]

For all your "stats" the fact is the Crows Hit Out score to date is 2 in the positive count vs Opposition Rucks 5 from the 7 games we've played which means we have been beaten in the ruck contests in 70+% of the games we've played and I'd hardly call the Rucks the Powa, Tigers or Bulldogs put out there anywhere near decent...

And that's without factoring in your Hit Outs to advantage......It's not only our mids that need to lift, our Rucks do too.

Bit of both really. Doesn't matter what the ruckmen do, if the inside mids at their feet aren't any good. Similarly, even the best midfielder is going to struggle if their ruckman is constantly losing the contests.

Right now, we have both problems.

 

[rocket18]

DMack is averaging 2 clearances a game and 5 contested possessions a game and wait for it has achieved a massive 3 centre clearances this year.

We are going to lose nothing by having Milera replace DMack because DMack has the body of a Milera.

I reckon an 18 year old Milera would ragdoll DMack, that is how poor Dmack is over the ball, he coughs it up/goes to ground at the slightest pressure.

He will never get done holding the ball cos he is stripped of it the instant he is tackled.

It's comical people believe we will be worse off with Milera playing DMacks role, worse case scenario it would be line ball for the next few games, give it a few months and it will be DMack who?

Pykey is finally the coach that has listened to the BigFooty pundits and we are a better team for it.

 

[rocket18]

Look I have pointed this out to you already but when you don't like what you read you ignore it, but Mackay has had 3 centre clearances for the year. I repeat 3.

Losing Mackay does not make it worse.

LOL, so that's not averaging 3 it is the total for the year. We are really going to miss that

Vader could go in there and get 3 clearances in 7 matches, just stand stand still and the ball would eventually fall into your arms- quick kick bang there's your centre clearance.

 

[Elite Crow]

I reckon an 18 year old Milera would ragdoll DMack, that is how poor Dmack is over the ball, he coughs it up/goes to ground at the slightest pressure.

He will never get done holding the ball cos he is stripped of it the instant he is tackled.

It's comical people believe we will be worse off with Milera playing DMacks role, worse case scenario it would be line ball for the next few games, give it a few months and it will be DMack who?

Pykey is finally the coach that has listened to the BigFooty pundits and we are a better team for it.

Next week will be the 5th week Vader has claimed VB will be picked. Bookmark this post.

 

[earlsta]

Next week will be the 5th week Vader has claimed VB will be picked. Bookmark this post.

Imagine Grigg comes in next week and no VB, someone would have to rush to Vader's house to cut the noose!

 

[rocket18]

Next week will be the 5th week Vader has claimed VB will be picked. Bookmark this post.

People like him a struggling to understand that we have a good coach now that can make the call on underperforming senior players.

He and many others bought into the AFC "imagine what the team would be like without player x y or z".

Plus we have had a run of inexperienced coaches that have kept faith with the senior players even after they have used all their brownie points.

 

[MRB37]

First time with Eddie, Cameron and Milera playing together. Let's hope we see another 100 games with that trio in the side together.

 

[NTRabbit]

Imagine Grigg comes in next week and no VB, someone would have to rush to Vader's house to cut the noose!

I sincerely doubt Grigg will get another AFL game, with anyone.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The question is whether or not we're already below the critical mass, or whether losing Mackay (and replacing him with an outside player) takes us below the critical mass.

The fact that our clearance rates are so poor indicates that we're very close to the critical mass already. Even marginal losses at this point can have significant implications.

Any one of a number of players can fill that Mackay role in centre clearances including and not limited to Cameron, Betts, Smith, Milera , lynch

 

[Vader]

People like him a struggling to understand that we have a good coach now that can make the call on underperforming senior players.

He and many others bought into the AFC "imagine what the team would be like without player x y or z".

Plus we have had a run of inexperienced coaches that have kept faith with the senior players even after they have used all their brownie points.

No. Over the summer I was calling for Mackay to never be selected again. However, his form in 2016 has been very good. This is easily the best and most consistent season of his career. I'm just sick of people judging him based on 2015, when he's clearly performing much, much better in 2016 - and deserves to keep his place at this point in time.

As for the rest of it.. I see a major deficiency in the team - and given the strengths & weaknesses of the players coming in (Milera) and going out (Mackay) the problem is only going to get worse.

I like Milera, and I'd have selected him last week instead of Cameron. It's not about Milera as a player. Nor is it really about Mackay as a player. It's about the team balance. Our clearances have gone to shite this year. That's partly because Jacobs is slightly down, it's partly because of losing Dangerfield. Bringing in a lightly framed outside midfielder is only going to make the problem worse.

We can't keep losing players from the inside and say "the other inside/outside mids will just spend more time in the middle". That works for a while, but fails once you hit critical mass. We're already below critical mass.

 

[Vader]

Any one of a number of players can fill that Mackay role in centre clearances including and not limited to Cameron, Betts, Smith, Milera , lynch

No, no, maybe, no, no.

But Smith is working beautifully rebounding off the HB line. The only thing keeping us in the game at present is our offence - cripple that and we'll really start to pay the price for our horrible clearance rates.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

No, no, maybe, no, no.

But Smith is working beautifully rebounding off the HB line. The only thing keeping us in the game at present is our offence - cripple that and we'll really start to pay the price for our horrible clearance rates.

Mackay - the new diesel williams

 

[Jeffcrowe]

No. Over the summer I was calling for Mackay to never be selected again. However, his form in 2016 has been very good. This is easily the best and most consistent season of his career. I'm just sick of people judging him based on 2015, when he's clearly performing much, much better in 2016 - and deserves to keep his place at this point in time.

As for the rest of it.. I see a major deficiency in the team - and given the strengths & weaknesses of the players coming in (Milera) and going out (Mackay) the problem is only going to get worse.

I like Milera, and I'd have selected him last week instead of Cameron. It's not about Milera as a player. Nor is it really about Mackay as a player. It's about the team balance. Our clearances have gone to shite this year. That's partly because Jacobs is slightly down, it's partly because of losing Dangerfield. Bringing in a lightly framed outside midfielder is only going to make the problem worse.

We can't keep losing players from the inside and say "the other inside/outside mids will just spend more time in the middle". That works for a while, but fails once you hit critical mass. We're already below critical mass.

Ps Mackay was playing a solid role but he's not irreplaceable in there by any means

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Oh dear, where to start?!

- Clearance stats are useless because I'm saying they would be better in Mackay's position based on attributes but they haven't been given those opportunities in the positions Mackay has.
- Better on the inside rather the outside…haha, that's not a high benchmark, he's poor at both.
- Have you watched Charlie Cameron hit a contest?! He's harder than 90% of our team and easily accounts for Mackay. Milera probably only just shades Mackay…as an 18yo mind you.
- CEY head-to-head v Mackay would pulverise him.

If Cameron goes in there it will be a heck of a lot harder for them to win clearances than last week and that's not counting on his offensive skills

 

[1970crow]

Next week will be the 5th week Vader has claimed VB will be picked. Bookmark this post.

And it will still not be who he'd prefer, but it'll be the way the coaches are likely to go.

 

[1970crow]

People like him a struggling to understand that we have a good coach now that can make the call on underperforming senior players.

He and many others bought into the AFC "imagine what the team would be like without player x y or z".

Plus we have had a run of inexperienced coaches that have kept faith with the senior players even after they have used all their brownie points.

Vader believes what VB did was a designed role and that VB is the only player with his attributes who can perform it. The minute the coaches realise that they erred in tweaking the VB role away from pure VB, the sooner he'll be back in performing the VB role thst only he can.

 

[Vader]

Mackay - the new diesel williams

With him, our clearances are already woefully deficient. Subtract his contribution and it gets worse. Not saying he's contributing a whole lot, but we're at such a critical low in this area that losing even a little bit really hurts us.

 

[Jack is Back]

Even counting for reduced midfield time compared to our preferred inside mids, Dmack has had 3 centre clearances for the whole year. So what exactly is the point of having him at the centre bounces?

We have been beaten in the clearances pretty much all year when its counted, perhaps Don needs to revisit his thinking by not brining in another inside mid.

We have plenty of outside players now but our inside work is suffering.

I certainly wasn't advocating for David Mackay to become a fulltime inside midfielder and I was not so sure about Bran Nue Mackae.

My choice was always for The SEED, the RAT and the WAYNE to be our outside midfielders. If BNM demanded a position through much superior form then I was willing to accept The Judgement of The Don.

 

[Vader]

Vader believes what VB did was a designed role and that VB is the only player with his attributes who can perform it. The minute the coaches realise that they erred in tweaking the VB role away from pure VB, the sooner he'll be back in performing the VB role thst only he can.

You have a weird obsession with VB and your perception of the way I see him. It's almost perverted. It's definitely sick, and not in a good way.

 

[1970crow]

You have a weird obsession with VB and your perception of the way I see him. It's almost perverted. It's definitely sick, and not in a good way.

It's not about VB, it's about your preoccupation with these highly specialised roles that only the incumbents can perform. It's odd, and not in a good way.

 

[Vader]

We really need to strip this discussion back to basics...

Firstly.. Mackay is absent because of injury. Not because of form. There's not a snowball's chance in Hell that he would have been dropped if he wasn't injured. My guess is that he'll be straight back into the team, after playing a maximum of 1x SANFL game after missing a month due to injury.

Secondly, our centre clearances have been absysmal this year. Offensively, we're winning a much lower percentage than we have in the past. Defensively, when the opposition wins a clearance it is almost always uncontested and goes straight into their F50. It's rarely contested, with the ball being forced out onto the wing - they're going straight down the guts from the tap, into their F50. This deficiency is partly caused by a slight drop in Jacobs' form, it's largely the result of the personnel waiting at his feet.

Thirdly, we know that Milera was always going to be the next player in. The club telegraphed that when they pulled him from the SANFL game against North Adelaide last Sunday.

Fourthly, Milera is a purely outside midfielder. An exciting one to be sure, one who is very promising, but he's not going to help with our centre clearance problem. We're already at a "critical mass" when it comes to giving our other inside/outside midfielders more time in the centre (e.g. Douglas).

So, how do we structure the team now, to resolve the problem with our diabolical clearance rates?